Dollar -vs- President

[djAdvocate]

i remember for the first couple years Obama was in office, many Republicans complained about the weak dollar.  and then, those complaints dried up.  i couldn't figure out why, until i looked at THIS:

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXM

IN TERMS OF DOLLAR STRENGTH IN THE LAST FORTY YEARS, THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE:

Segundo Peor (1977-1980): 107.5>98.5 = -9
Reagan: 98.5>91.5 = -7
GHWB: 91.5>86.5 = -5
El Mejor (1993-2000): 86.5>104 = +18.5
El Peor (2001-2008): 104>83 = -21
Segundo Mejor (2009-present): 83>94.5 = +11.5

notice anything about that group?  the two worst on that list are widely reviled. 

i think this is a pretty good measure of relative economic performance.  it is a good measure of how the country did relative to other nations.

anyone think the the president elect will report positive numbers?  the dollar is already down 3% this month.

or, do you think this is all a bunch of rubbish and coincidence?

[djAdvocate]

i would also like to add that El Peor was a DISASTER for the US Dollar.  under his (8) years, the dollar lost more than the three NEXT worst performers COMBINED.

edit: maybe i missed it, but i don't remember anyone complaining about it.  of course, that wasn't the only economic disaster that happened under his watch.  when you add to it the worst job growth since Hoover, the worst stock market performance since i don't know when, the worst loss in workforce participation (for those of you that care about it) since i don't know when, the worst deficits since WW2 in his final budget year....i am sure i am forgetting a couple.....i guess it makes sense that people looked at the dollar and said "no thanks" for (8) years.

this is a good measure of how great America is, imo.  let's see how the guy who pledged to make it great again will do.  i bet the dollar declines during his watch, based on the performance of the last (3) GOP presidents.

[Deleted]

The dollar under W helped us reach our profit goals a few times in the aughts with heavier than expected International sales and the resulting conversion.

Wow has it really been 8 years.....

[Deleted]

Jan 20, 2017 0:18:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i remember for the first couple years Obama was in office, many Republicans complained about the weak dollar.  and then, those complaints dried up.  i couldn't figure out why, until i looked at THIS:

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXM

Carter: 107.5>98.5 = -9
Reagan: 98.5>91.5 = -7
GHWB: 91.5>86.5 = -5
Clinton: 86.5>104 = +18.5
El Peor: 104>83 = -21
Obama: 83>94.5 = +11.5

notice anything about that group?  the two worst on that list are widely reviled. 

i think this is a pretty good measure of relative economic performance.  it is a good measure of how the country did relative to other nations.

anyone think the the president elect will report positive numbers?  the dollar is already down 3% this month.

or, do you think this is all a bunch of rubbish and coincidence?

I'm confused... You have Obama at "-21" and "+11.5"... did they break it into terms to make his gain look possible? Or am I translating "El Peor" incorrectly? It does mean "The Worst"... right? That's what Google says anyway.

Plus you forgot GWB.




Kidding... except about who "the worst" actually is.

I think GWB can be given a "pass" on a lot of that. Because it wasn't until after 9-11 that it started dropping, and us being attacked wasn't (unless you have proof otherwise) something he's responsible for, and once a pendulum is in free fall it takes a while to arc back up on the other side.

Now, notice I said "a lot", I suspect that he still would have run into losses, I just think they would have been closer to the others that ran losses had 9-11 never happened... probably in the -5 to -9 category.

Also worthy of note, Obama's great increase in the Dollar was over as of January of 2016, according to your chart, it started falling again as the world realized the true impact of his policies. The hope had faded, and cold reality was splashed in the market's faces. That drop didn't REALLY start to rebound until (much as I hate to say this) Trump was elected, and hope (apparently) for fiscal sanity returned.

[tallguy]

Looked to me like GWB actually got a bump after 9/11 until it peaked around February, 2002.  It had started to decline slightly prior to 9/11 and jumped again afterward.  It then continued to decline until bottoming out in about March, 2008.  Is it interesting that the Bush graph is almost uniformly downward even though we were not in recession for most of those years?       

[Deleted]

So, Trump says today the dollar is too strong...

[dondub]

I seem to recall that on numerous occasions Paul commented that the dollar was a horrid disaster under Obama.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 4:08:48 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

I think GWB can be given a "pass" on a lot of that. Because it wasn't until after 9-11 that it started dropping, and us being attacked wasn't (unless you have proof otherwise) something he's responsible for, and once a pendulum is in free fall it takes a while to arc back up on the other side.

Now, notice I said "a lot", I suspect that he still would have run into losses, I just think they would have been closer to the others that ran losses had 9-11 never happened... probably in the -5 to -9 category.

Also worthy of note, Obama's great increase in the Dollar was over as of January of 2016, according to your chart, it started falling again as the world realized the true impact of his policies. The hope had faded, and cold reality was splashed in the market's faces. That drop didn't REALLY start to rebound until (much as I hate to say this) Trump was elected, and hope (apparently) for fiscal sanity returned.

the dollar actually rose after 911, for about 5 months.

and yes, the dollar is falling.  i noted that either on this thread, or elsewhere.  i have some theories about why, which i am willing to discuss.

you are skimming over the most important points, tho.  the dollar rose despite huge deficits and the S&P downgrade: WHY?  it is a good question to ask yourself.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 6:56:01 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

OK People,

The pejorative term used above for GWB runs afoul of our prohibition against such terms being used to name call political figures. 

Please edit your posts to change the term, or they will have to be deleted.

Thank You,

deminmaine, Moderator.

deminmaine: i reviewed the rules, and the OP is not in violation, for two reasons:

1) the rule in question applies only to candidates for office, and W is no longer a candidate for anything.
2) he is, in fact, in terms of this discussion, THE WORST.  unless you want to make a case for the declining dollar being a good thing.

so, i am going to contest this ruling.  you either change the rule, or the OP stays.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 10:52:04 GMT -5 dondub said:

I seem to recall that on numerous occasions Paul commented that the dollar was a horrid disaster under Obama.

anything that went wrong was Obama's fault.  Paul also loved to comment on Obama's approval rating being about the same or lower than W's.  that all ended about four years ago.  it might be interesting to compare the public approval graph and the dollar graph.  they seem to be fairly closely correlated.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 11:33:40 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Jan 20, 2017 11:23:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

deminmaine : i reviewed the rules, and the OP is not in violation, for two reasons:

1) the rule in question applies only to candidates for office, and W is no longer a candidate for anything.
2) he is, in fact, in terms of this discussion, THE WORST.  unless you want to make a case for the declining dollar being a good thing.

so, i am going to contest this ruling.  you either change the rule, or the OP stays.

Bravo for you.  You are correct in your first point, although I believe the intent of the rule was to include all office holders and former office holders as well.  It will go under review.

As to your second point, I disagree.  He may in fact be the worst, that is subjective. 

not in terms of the loss of the dollar.  it is 100% objective.

You are free to claim he is "the worst President".  But "El Peor" is simply a pejorative term.  It would not be allowable if the prohibition extends to office holders as well.

really?  i just thought it was Spanish for "The Worst". 

i will add something to the OP that will put it into perspective, and i breathlessly await your ruling.

NOTE: i will be gone for a few hours after this, so don't expect immediate action.

[djAdvocate]

i don't want the semantics to distract from the discussion:

WHY do you think that presidential approval (both popular, and historian) TENDS to follow the dollar?

i can think of good reasons, but i would rather that others comment, so i can check my thinking.

[Deleted]

Jan 20, 2017 11:55:48 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i don't want the semantics to distract from the discussion:

WHY do you think that presidential approval (both popular, and historian) TENDS to follow the dollar?

i can think of good reasons, but i would rather that others comment, so i can check my thinking.

Unless it's a term/pet peeve that you think is insulting.   

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 13:14:17 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Jan 20, 2017 11:55:48 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i don't want the semantics to distract from the discussion:

WHY do you think that presidential approval (both popular, and historian) TENDS to follow the dollar?

i can think of good reasons, but i would rather that others comment, so i can check my thinking.

Unless it's a term/pet peeve that you think is insulting.   

on the contrary.  i was not trying to be insulting.  i was just trying to state facts. 

i am a truth teller, to paraphrase a popular figure. 

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 8:19:53 GMT -5 oped said:

So, Trump says today the dollar is too strong...

precisely.  if he crushes the dollar, he makes exports more viable.  but, of course, that makes imports more expensive.

our entire economy is built around cheap goods.  that means that everything gets more expensive, which means less disposable income.

unless he can figure out a way to get wages up, this is a disastrous idea.

but of course, he knows that.  he is really smart, and graduated from Wharton (apparently).

[Deleted]

Jan 20, 2017 11:23:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 20, 2017 6:56:01 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

OK People,

The pejorative term used above for GWB runs afoul of our prohibition against such terms being used to name call political figures. 

Please edit your posts to change the term, or they will have to be deleted.

Thank You,

deminmaine, Moderator.

deminmaine : i reviewed the rules, and the OP is not in violation, for two reasons:

1) the rule in question applies only to candidates for office, and W is no longer a candidate for anything.
2) he is, in fact, in terms of this discussion, THE WORST.  unless you want to make a case for the declining dollar being a good thing.

so, i am going to contest this ruling.  you either change the rule, or the OP stays.

Obama is OVERALL "the worst" so... that could get confusing.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 20:39:38 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Jan 20, 2017 11:23:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

deminmaine : i reviewed the rules, and the OP is not in violation, for two reasons:

1) the rule in question applies only to candidates for office, and W is no longer a candidate for anything.
2) he is, in fact, in terms of this discussion, THE WORST.  unless you want to make a case for the declining dollar being a good thing.

so, i am going to contest this ruling.  you either change the rule, or the OP stays.

Obama is OVERALL "the worst" so... that could get confusing.

the terms of this discussion are gain or loss in the dollar, Richard.  ONLY.

can you please stay on topic?  we know you hate Obama, but that is not the point.

edit: let me help you out here.  i want to know whether you think there is any correlation between the strength of the dollar and public approval of a president, and if so, WHY?  i think there is, and i think there are a LOT of reasons.

[Deleted]

Personally, I think that any "correlation" between Approval Rating and Strength of the Dollar is strictly coincidental.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 20, 2017 20:49:46 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Personally, I think that any "correlation" between Approval Rating and Strength of the Dollar is strictly coincidental.

thanks.  i am not going to argue.  i will wait for others to comment, and then state what i see, and why.