Italy's Big Day

[Virgil Showlion]

A summary of the issue and what's at stake:

www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-02/everything-you-need-know-about-italian-referendum-should-be-afraid-ask

Briefly:

Would a No vote start the countdown for Italy’s euro exit?

We do not think that a No vote would increase the chances of an Italian euro exit. It actually might make it less likely. The nightmare scenario for financial markets in simple terms is that a No triggers early elections, MS5 wins, it holds an in-out euro referendum, which leads to a vote for ITEXIT. However, in case of a No vote, the situation would be more complex. As described above, without parliamentary reform, MS5 would struggle to form a government and to pass the legislation to hold the referendum.

In many ways a YES vote followed by a MS5 win in 2018 could actually be the scenario which implies the bigger risk of ITEXIT. This is because MS5 would have more legislative power. However, even then there would be significant hurdles to overcome. The constitution does not allow referenda on pulling out of international treaties, though it does allow advisory referenda. However, to launch an advisory referendum, there needs to be a two-thirds support in parliament currently (though this could change eventually). Even assuming the Italicum reform sticks and MS5 wins the election, they would still struggle to achieve that. MS5 would then have 340 seats. Given current polling, the other Eurosceptic party Lega Nord would have around 55 seats. So it would need to increase its share of the vote significantly (from the current 12.5% to around 16.5%) to push the combined MS5-Lega Nord to the two-thirds majority necessary. If it does not get that majority, it would need to a referendum to hold the advisory referendum.

If it MS5 were to manage to hold a consultative referendum, then the public would need to vote to leave the euro. Most polls suggest a majority of the Italian public favour staying in, though support has diminished and the gap is now small. If the public did vote to leave, the government could then use that referendum as a mandate to start the process of a euro exit.

Believe it or not, these events will affect you, so keep apprised.

[djAdvocate]

this one particularly interests me, because Italy is sort of a second tier expatriation target for me. 

watching this one closely.  thanks for posting! 

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 4, 2016 15:47:41 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

I think Italy would be very very foolish to do a Euro exit.

I'm a fence-sitter.

There's no doubt Italy has been a beneficiary of the "charity" (if we can call it that) of the rest of the Eurozone in terms of undeserved credit extension and credit forgiveness.

At the same time, they're still facing interest rates that are downright astronomical for 2016 (I think it was 8% for their 10-year paper last time I checked) without the faintest hope of relief or improvement. I do feel for the people who want to watch the whole thing burn.

This is the most nightmarish part of socialism. Whether rich or poor, beneficiary or contributor, the citizens wind up as debt slaves without hope. Their leaders lead them astray, rake up huge obligations, and everybody winds up suffering together.

Italy's choice is the same one it seems all western democracies are destined to face: car crash or cancer. Exiting the Eurozone is the car crash. Staying is the cancer. Which one to recommend?

[b2r]

Italian Voters Reject Proposed Changes, Prompting Prime Minister's Resignation

Italian voters have dealt a serious defeat to the government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. In a referendum Sunday, they rejected Renzi's proposed constitutional reforms, which would have changed the balance of power between the executive and Parliament.



Renzi conceded the referendum in an address to the country, saying that he "takes full responsibility" for its defeat. In accordance with a promise he made before the vote, Renzi also announced that he intends to resign.


www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/04/504356413/italian-voters-reject-referendum-prompting-prime-ministers-resignation

[djAdvocate]

Dec 4, 2016 18:41:12 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

Dec 4, 2016 17:29:13 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

I'm a fence-sitter.

There's no doubt Italy has been a beneficiary of the "charity" (if we can call it that) of the rest of the Eurozone in terms of undeserved credit extension and credit forgiveness.

At the same time, they're still facing interest rates that are downright astronomical for 2016 (I think it was 8% for their 10-year paper last time I checked) without the faintest hope of relief or improvement. I do feel for the people who want to watch the whole thing burn.

This is the most nightmarish part of socialism. Whether rich or poor, beneficiary or contributor, the citizens wind up as debt slaves without hope. Their leaders lead them astray, rake up huge obligations, and everybody winds up suffering together.

Italy's choice is the same one it seems all western democracies are destined to face: car crash or cancer. Exiting the Eurozone is the car crash. Staying is the cancer. Which one to recommend?

Back on the original topic - I agree regarding the car crash vs cancer analogy.  If Italy leaves the Euro they have no chance of a bailout if/when it is needed, and I would say that is highly likely given their levels of debt.

I think it's easier to pick the "cancer" route just because people tend to be optimistic and think there might be a solution in the future.  When you look at that reality - what candidate would run on a platform of reducing military/foreign aid/social programs/etc, and also raising taxes for everybody - which it would probably take all of those things for the US to get back to a balanced budget and start chipping away at the deficit...reality is that's not going to happen.

Italy has the benefit of having a weak currency economy if they are NOT in the union, tho.  it is LESS likely that they will fail, because of it.

i think this is an extremely complicated subject, which is why i was interested in your response.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Arrivederci Renzi. The global populist / nationalist tsunami flows on....

[Tennesseer]

Dec 5, 2016 9:12:04 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Well, the other news of the day was that your nationalist friend in Austria LOST.

Hitler weeps.

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 5, 2016 9:12:04 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Well, the other news of the day was that your nationalist friend in Austria LOST.

Give it time.

Two years ago, a lot of these nationalist uprisings were unthinkable. It takes time to go from "unthinkable" to running the government.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 5, 2016 19:26:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Dec 5, 2016 9:12:04 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Well, the other news of the day was that your nationalist friend in Austria LOST.

Give it time.

Two years ago, a lot of these nationalist uprisings were unthinkable. It takes time to go from "unthinkable" to running the government.

i am relieved to discover that we are not the only country infected with stupid.

[Deleted]

Dec 6, 2016 0:25:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 5, 2016 19:26:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Give it time.

Two years ago, a lot of these nationalist uprisings were unthinkable. It takes time to go from "unthinkable" to running the government.

i am relieved to discover that we are not the only country infected with stupid.

Glad to know I'm not the only one who thought this. But does Italy have Oompah-Loompahs??!?!

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 5, 2016 20:28:58 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Dec 5, 2016 19:26:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Give it time.

Two years ago, a lot of these nationalist uprisings were unthinkable. It takes time to go from "unthinkable" to running the government.

Well that may be true, but this guy really fronts a despicable movement if what I hear is true.

I don't know enough about the individual parties to comment.

I know that eventually demographics will shift and quality of life deteriorate so greatly that only parties whose platform is 100% openly, unabashedly committed to shutting down immigration from the Middle East and North Africa, as well as cementing "cultural values" in law, will have any hope of winning a popular election.

Unfortunately, a lot of these movements lead to the rise of despots, but when it's despot or destruction--and it is--people usually choose the despot.

I'm guessing you live in the typical leftist universe where multiculturalism works, immigrants are great (or at least never a serious problem), and people don't actually have to make this choice, but Europe no longer has this luxury. If you're clucking your tongue at resurgent nationalism now, it will be a spectacle to behold your mighty clucks 1, 2, and 5 years from now.

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 6, 2016 20:52:54 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Dec 6, 2016 20:17:58 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

I don't know enough about the individual parties to comment.

I know that eventually demographics will shift and quality of life deteriorate so greatly that only parties whose platform is 100% openly, unabashedly committed to shutting down immigration from the Middle East and North Africa, as well as cementing "cultural values" in law, will have any hope of winning a popular election.

Unfortunately, a lot of these movements lead to the rise of despots, but when it's despot or destruction--and it is--people usually choose the despot.

I'm guessing you live in the typical leftist universe where multiculturalism works, immigrants are great (or at least never a serious problem), and people don't actually have to make this choice, but Europe no longer has this luxury. If you're clucking your tongue at resurgent nationalism now, it will be a spectacle to behold your mighty clucks 1, 2, and 5 years from now.

No I live in rural Maine.  I am clucking my tongue because this is a freaking neo-Nazi party and they are absolutely freaking despicable.  Their roots were not just fascism, but National Socialism, German style.  I am clucking my tongue because- freaking genocide.  I presume that you are not aware of that.

They advocate genocide in their party platform?

Wow. Do you have a link or source or something I can show to the skeptics?

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 7, 2016 7:41:40 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Dec 6, 2016 20:59:56 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

They advocate genocide in their party platform?

Wow. Do you have a link or source or something I can show to the skeptics?

Look them up.  Their founder, his position in the SS under Hitler. Their early ties to Nazi Germany, and their ongoing admiration for the Nazi's through the years.  Keep in mind that membership in the National Socialist Party was higher in Austria than it was in Germany.
BTW- Genocide wasn't in the National Socialist party platform either.  However they did warn about the evils of "the other", just as do the Austrian Freedom Party.  Hmmm.
Are these people the second coming of swastikas and silly mustaches?  Maybe, maybe not.  They are NOT good people though Virgil. 

I'm not suggesting they are good people, but if they support genocide, they support it, and if they don't support it, they don't support it. A lot of Europeans admire bits and pieces of Nazism for different reasons, especially in eastern Europe.

I'll grant you the Nazis didn't openly advocate genocide, eugenics, etc. until they were reasonably well established, but they most certainly did openly call for extirpation of Jews and other ethnic groups, and well before WWII started.

My concern here is that 'Nazi' is being used in Europe in the same way as 'racism' is thrown around in America: a label casually tossed around, destined to become meaningless due to overuse. I'll look this guy up, but if he isn't openly singing the praises of Nazism, I'm not going to consider him a neo-Nazi.

[Value Buy]

Remember the praise our President had for the Arab Spring political uprising?

Since then it has become a "democratic spring".
Free countries and their citizens are throwing the yoke of decades of oppression off their backs.
Germany will be next