djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 14:47:24 GMT -5
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/#nowMcMullin is now polling second. but that is what made me post this. he polled second with 29%. that is HIGHER than Clinton has polled in ANY 4-Way survey. McMullin has only been at this about 6 weeks. it looks to me like he is going to catch and take over the lead this WEEK. the only thing that brings up questions is the quality of the polling, which is all C+. but i think this one will be fun to watch. even though Nate Silver has McMullin at 1:20 longshot, i think he might win it. maybe i should bet some money somewhere! 
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2016 15:25:00 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2016 16:37:02 GMT -5
It also isn't surprising to me that Trump isn't taking it by storm either. Wouldn't be shocked by a McMullin win, especially if Clinton is clearly going to win the presidency.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 17, 2016 16:41:55 GMT -5
So what does that do to the equation, if Utah goes to a third party candidate? Does it favor Clinton or Trump, in the end?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2016 16:49:38 GMT -5
So what does that do to the equation, if Utah goes to a third party candidate? Does it favor Clinton or Trump, in the end? IM(not so)HO, there is no way that Utah will go Clinton over Trump without a third person involved (does McMullin have a "party"?), so it wouldn't cut in to her potential vote total. |
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 17, 2016 17:28:03 GMT -5
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/#nowMcMullin is now polling second. but that is what made me post this. he polled second with 29%. that is HIGHER than Clinton has polled in ANY 4-Way survey. McMullin has only been at this about 6 weeks. it looks to me like he is going to catch and take over the lead this WEEK. the only thing that brings up questions is the quality of the polling, which is all C+. but i think this one will be fun to watch. even though Nate Silver has McMullin at 1:20 longshot, i think he might win it. maybe i should bet some money somewhere! what does it mean if he wins the state - for the rest of the election? |
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2016 17:48:21 GMT -5
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/#nowMcMullin is now polling second. but that is what made me post this. he polled second with 29%. that is HIGHER than Clinton has polled in ANY 4-Way survey. McMullin has only been at this about 6 weeks. it looks to me like he is going to catch and take over the lead this WEEK. the only thing that brings up questions is the quality of the polling, which is all C+. but i think this one will be fun to watch. even though Nate Silver has McMullin at 1:20 longshot, i think he might win it. maybe i should bet some money somewhere! what does it mean if he wins the state - for the rest of the election? There are 538 votes available in the Electoral College. It is necessary for an individual to get 270 votes to win the position of president. Utah has 6 votes. If it breaks down to where those 6 votes prevent both Trump and Clinton from getting 270, then the decision would go to the House of Representatives. They would have the choice of the three top vote gets in the Electoral College, i.e. Clinton, Trump, and McMullin. The chances that the numbers break perfectly to allow that to happen is very very slim. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 17:56:13 GMT -5
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/#nowMcMullin is now polling second. but that is what made me post this. he polled second with 29%. that is HIGHER than Clinton has polled in ANY 4-Way survey. McMullin has only been at this about 6 weeks. it looks to me like he is going to catch and take over the lead this WEEK. the only thing that brings up questions is the quality of the polling, which is all C+. but i think this one will be fun to watch. even though Nate Silver has McMullin at 1:20 longshot, i think he might win it. maybe i should bet some money somewhere! what does it mean if he wins the state - for the rest of the election? given that Utah is a very red state, this is a minus for Trump. the unlikely tossup scenario is covered by our distinguished poster, billisonboard, above. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 17:57:47 GMT -5
So what does that do to the equation, if Utah goes to a third party candidate? Does it favor Clinton or Trump, in the end? neither. Clinton never stood a chance there, so it is UNFAVORABLE to Trump, but no impact on Clinton, imo. edit: to the extent that the election is tied to Utah, it would favor Clinton = almost none. |
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 17, 2016 18:02:10 GMT -5
what does it mean if he wins the state - for the rest of the election? There are 538 votes available in the Electoral College. It is necessary for an individual to get 270 votes to win the position of president. Utah has 6 votes. If it breaks down to where those 6 votes prevent both Trump and Clinton from getting 270, then the decision would go to the House of Representatives. They would have the choice of the three top vote gets in the Electoral College, i.e. Clinton, Trump, and McMullin. The chances that the numbers break perfectly to allow that to happen is very very slim. the house could actually pick mcmullin even though he only got 1 state? |
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2016 18:03:44 GMT -5
There are 538 votes available in the Electoral College. It is necessary for an individual to get 270 votes to win the position of president. Utah has 6 votes. If it breaks down to where those 6 votes prevent both Trump and Clinton from getting 270, then the decision would go to the House of Representatives. They would have the choice of the three top vote gets in the Electoral College, i.e. Clinton, Trump, and McMullin. The chances that the numbers break perfectly to allow that to happen is very very slim. the house could actually pick mcmullin even though he only got 1 state? Yes |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2016 18:06:20 GMT -5
the house could actually pick mcmullin even though he only got 1 state? Yes i'll go a step further. i think it is LIKELY that they would do so. but this is such a longshot, it is good only for thought experiments. |
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dezailoooooo
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Post by dezailoooooo on Oct 17, 2016 18:32:22 GMT -5
Believe that Utah never entered into Hilleries thoughts as a possible win in any scenario....that Trump isn't a winner here should give him a idea as to how out of touch he is with all normal thinking Americans...Fact is, if he hadn't gone nuts on his tweets and claims he might have actually had a shot..right now it's " a rigged election..it's all the Clintons...lashing out on all levels..it's everyones fault ..except himself..?? naaaa....it's just rigged with no proof but the Donald "trust me.."
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 17, 2016 18:43:27 GMT -5
i'll go a step further. i think it is LIKELY that they would do so. but this is such a longshot, it is good only for thought experiments. ahhh - so that is what that title meant on some article I saw. I didn't read it, lol! ok - so which congress would decide - the current I am assuming, and not the group sworn in in Jan? So no dems would vote for him (I don't think!) - I know that there was a backlash to Ryan from congress reps on his :do whatever you need to because they want to support trump. What happens to those who don't support trump with their trump voting bases? Could they vote mcmullin really - even if they wanted? Which republicans would consider voting for hilliary - and even if they wanted to - what backlash there and would they do it? Another thought - would not each congress person vote for who their state voted for? Safest bet for their own reelections, I would think. Depending on the demographics of the state and their district being the same I suppose! Ok - is that enough questions for your experiment?  |
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2016 18:45:17 GMT -5
www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/key-dates.htmlThe reading of the Electoral College vote is set for January 6th, after the seating of the new Congress. Would there be an attempt to change it to before the new Congress is seated if it would be to the Republican advantage? I don't see in the Constitution that it would be illegal. The House vote will be one vote per state. I don't know that there is any legal requirements in any state laws how that decision would have to be made. I think the assumption would be a straight preference vote of the state delegation and then the plurality choice would get the state vote. That could be very interesting. For example, would Paul Ryan cast a vote for Clinton? Trump? or would he go with McMullin? djAdvocate posted something that talked about the question of what would the Republican establishment members do if faced with that choice. Here is another question: What would the campaign for the Electoral College vote look like from November 9th to December 19th attempting to sway voters who have the freedom under state law to not be tied to state results? And then if there wasn't an indication that there would be a majority vote, what would happen between the 19th and January 6th (or whenever) when the votes are read and then the House votes?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 17, 2016 18:47:43 GMT -5
i'll go a step further. i think it is LIKELY that they would do so. but this is such a longshot, it is good only for thought experiments. ahhh - so that is what that title meant on some article I saw. I didn't read it, lol! ok - so which congress would decide - the current I am assuming, and not the group sworn in in Jan? So no dems would vote for him (I don't think!) - I know that there was a backlash to Ryan from congress reps on his :do whatever you need to because they want to support trump. What happens to those who don't support trump with their trump voting bases? Could they vote mcmullin really - even if they wanted? Which republicans would consider voting for hilliary - and even if they wanted to - what backlash there and would they do it? Another thought - would not each congress person vote for who their state voted for? Safest bet for their own reelections, I would think. Depending on the demographics of the state and their district being the same I suppose! Ok - is that enough questions for your experiment? I think I answered the questions that have real answers above. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2016 14:49:55 GMT -5
the latest two polls show McMullin either tied or leading. i think he might actually win this state!  both M and C have a 1:8 chance of winning as of today, so Trump is down to 7:2 favourite (his lowest number of the campaign). stay tuned!!!! |
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 20, 2016 14:53:55 GMT -5
fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-were-forecasting-the-4-way-presidential-race-in-utah/We’ve discovered that people are a little bit obsessed with the presidential race in Utah. An article that my colleague Benjamin Morris wrote last week about Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who is on the ballot there and competitive in recent polls, unexpectedly turned out to be one of the most popular features we’ve written this year at FiveThirtyEight. In this article, I’ll provide a more technical explanation of how our model is forecasting McMullin and why he has a relatively challenging path — and also, one important way in which our forecast might be underrating his chances.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 26, 2016 16:34:43 GMT -5
this is still interesting. more interesting, in fact.
in the last 9 days, here is where Trumps odds have gone at 538
P+ = 91>76%
P = 85<72%
NC = 78>62%
i typically don't consider "Now Cast" polling- but as the election nears, it becomes MORE of a predictor.
i am therefore calling this state "Leans Trump" right now. the trend is really bad for Trump. here are the last FIVE polls that included McMullin in the survey:
T33, M29, C28, J7
T32, M29, C28, J4
T27, M31, C24, J5
T30, M29, C25, J5
T30, M29, C28, J5
Averages = T30.4, M29.2, C26.6, J5.2
so, it is true that he has only polled above 30% once. and it is also true that Clinton, Trump AND Johnson have vacuumed up undecided votes in the last week (undecided has fallen from the teens to a mere 3%). but the biggest truth of all is that the top two candidates in this race are only 1.2% apart.
i can't imagine why Utah would NOT want to vote for McMullin under the circumstances.
i would.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 27, 2016 10:47:47 GMT -5
I know nothing about McMullin's politics other than he's called a conservative Mormon and I'm really hoping he takes Utah.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2016 10:50:20 GMT -5
I know nothing about McMullin's politics other than he's called a conservative Mormon and I'm really hoping he takes Utah. he's not the favorite....YET.  |
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Nov 11, 2016 17:19:02 GMT -5
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Nov 11, 2016 17:27:10 GMT -5
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Nov 11, 2016 17:32:18 GMT -5
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Post by Opti on Nov 11, 2016 19:26:12 GMT -5
Wonder how McMullin feels about Trump winning anyway? |
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Nov 11, 2016 19:31:31 GMT -5
Utah wouldn't have changed anything, my guess, not much?
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Post by Opti on Nov 11, 2016 19:33:25 GMT -5
Utah wouldn't have changed anything, my guess, not much? I thought McMullin only ran so Utah wouldn't go to Trump. No one expected Hillary had a chance there. |
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Nov 11, 2016 19:41:03 GMT -5
So, he engaged in a pointless exercise and it proved pointless?
So success?
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Nov 11, 2016 19:52:24 GMT -5
Maybe he proved a couple of different poinst to us, accidentally, probably.
Wow! that difference between polls three weeks out and the final numbers! And the way that those numbers broke!
ETA: He reminded me of something that I'd forgotten about third-party and protest candidates and he did it in a way that doesn't leave me feeling foolish.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Nov 11, 2016 22:18:18 GMT -5
I think he also only joined the race in August. 20% of his state's vote after 2-3 months of campaigning is impressive.
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