Trump, Johnson, Clinton - in that order

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

I have a new outlandish prediction:  Clinton implodes completely. Johnson makes a real go of it, there are debates, he gains momentum and energy and overtakes Hillary Clinton to come in second. Still Trump in a massive landslide- that's pretty much assured now. The only question for me now is: can Hillary sustain a strong second place finish? I'm starting to think the unthinkable: one of the major parties implodes. 

Last summer, I would have said that would be the GOP. I don't know how- looking back- but I would have bet money they'd have dragged Jeb! across the finish line and the party would have completely imploded. Both parties had insurgent outsider candidates. Trump prevailed in his primary. Bernie lost. In the process, the Democratic Party & Hillary were exposed as thoroughly corrupt- not even the pretense of honest dealing flies in the Dem party anymore. 

The best thing that could have happened to Gary Johnson was his Aleppo gaffe. It was so good for him, I'm wondering if he isn't smart enough to have planned it?  He is recovering nicely with an answer we can all live with: it was a blunder, I feel like an idiot, it probably won't be the last time, I'm still learning. None of us can relate to that, can we? Of course we can.  However, what it really did was put the spotlight on Hillary's very own mess: Syria. She owns Aleppo lock stock and barrel. 

The dynamics of this get tougher against the backdrop of a Democratic party that has gone so far to the leftward fringes that a good chunk of Democrats think Hillary is a "hawk", and you have Johnson pounding away at both parties and their ongoing, permanent, never-ending wars-- and Trump hammering away at Hillary as dishonest, unstable, and the new trial balloon he's floated..."trigger happy". 

I think it's time to face facts: Hillary is in free-fall. Her campaign is collapsing. Americans are just not that into her-- and I frankly don't see a way back.  I don't think the media can save her, though they're going to try desperately. I think Trump is going to clean her clock in the debates.  In fact, what I have seen of Trump lately tells me he's a lot smarter than anyone's given him credit for and the whole primary may well have been a rope-a-dope-- he just goes out and has fun with Republicans, whipping their ass because they're easy. And he does it all knowing HRC & Co are watching and formulating a "response" and a strategy. But it's like Happy Gilmore...somebody learned how to putt. Trump is a quick study, he has a sharp mind, and he's been in media- hostile and otherwise- for 35 years.

www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/09/09/hillary_bombed_on_nbc_with_matt_lauer_and_democrats_are_panicked_because_america_is_just_not_that_into_her

[chiver78]

Post by SpaceCoastPaul on 1 minute ago
I have a new outlandish prediction

that's probably the most accurate statement you've made this year!

[Opti]

Trump hammering away at Hillary as dishonest, unstable, and the new trial balloon he's floated..."trigger happy".

This is amusing. That's how I see Trump - dishonest, unstable, and trigger happy. First politician in my lifetime

who advocated killing families of enemy combatants.

I guess Rush's apparent love-in is complete. The big question is he behind Trump because he's sure he will lose, or it will go to heck if he wins, keeping the $$ flowing into the Rush show?

[djAdvocate]

Johnson draws equally from Clinton and Trump in most of the polls, so i don't see how this can happen.  it is far more likely the reverse of your post: Johnson, Clinton, Trump

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 9, 2016 21:21:09 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

In fact, what I have seen of Trump lately tells me he's a lot smarter than anyone's given him credit for and the whole primary may well have been a rope-a-dope-- he just goes out and has fun with Republicans, whipping their ass because they're easy.

This is basically what I have been saying since day one. To make it in NYC real estate you have to have "it". I even told some big Jeb! supporters that if they didn't really get Jeb! to step out of the GOP mold, Trump was going to drown him out and would be the nominee.

As for the rest, interesting theory Paul.

[MN-Investor]

Sept 9, 2016 21:21:09 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I have a new outlandish prediction...

That's what happens when you get all your news from the right wing echo chamber.

[mmhmm]

Sept 9, 2016 21:41:24 GMT -5 Opti said:

Trump hammering away at Hillary as dishonest, unstable, and the new trial balloon he's floated..."trigger happy".

This is amusing. That's how I see Trump - dishonest, unstable, and trigger happy. First politician in my lifetime

who advocated killing families of enemy combatants.

I guess Rush's apparent love-in is complete. The big question is he behind Trump because he's sure he will lose, or it will go to heck if he wins, keeping the $$ flowing into the Rush show?

He's behind Trump because Trump provides great fodder for his style of "entertainment."

[mmhmm]

Sept 9, 2016 21:49:05 GMT -5 tallguy said:

I can take greater comfort if we can keep the discussion off other posters. Posts are continuing to disappear without warning/comment.

mmhmm, Politics Moderator

[djAdvocate]

LOL@!

[billisonboard]

Sept 10, 2016 7:34:35 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

wow...he's just throwing out a theory for discussion folks.

The people on this thread who have talked about the topic and not Paul is Opt4FT and Aman aka hamburger.

...

And even Mmhmm gets into it - surprise, surprise - "He's behind Trump because Trump provides great fodder for his style of "entertainment."

Oh, but then she asked for people to keep the discussion off other posters LMAO!  Make sure you get your 2 cents in first .

the male pronoun "he" in mmhmm's is Rush Limbaugh, not Paul.

[moon/Laura]

thank you for explaining that, Bill. I was just going to say the same thing! 

[billisonboard]

Sept 10, 2016 9:51:55 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

I can't wait to hear the explanation for the other two .

I thought you were spot on with those being personal attacks and I appreciate that mmhmm called them on it.

[mmhmm]

Sept 10, 2016 7:57:02 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Sept 10, 2016 7:34:35 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

wow...he's just throwing out a theory for discussion folks.

The people on this thread who have talked about the topic and not Paul is Opt4FT and Aman aka hamburger.

...

And even Mmhmm gets into it - surprise, surprise - "He's behind Trump because Trump provides great fodder for his style of "entertainment."

Oh, but then she asked for people to keep the discussion off other posters LMAO!  Make sure you get your 2 cents in first .

the male pronoun "he" in mmhmm's is Rush Limbaugh, not Paul.

Precisely, billis. Rush, not paul, is the entertainer.

[mmhmm]

Sept 10, 2016 10:44:56 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

I didn't notice that at first, but now I do - so thank you for pointing that out. I was wrong to accuse mmhmm for making inflammatory comments.  I apologize.

I was also wrong to point out Chiver and Tallguy's comments as being insulting.  My apologies to you chiver78 and also to tallguy .

Thank you for being understanding.

Thanks, Ratchets. Apology accepted. Also, tallguy's post was, indeed, removed yesterday. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 10, 2016 7:34:35 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

wow...he's just throwing out a theory for discussion folks.

The people on this thread who have talked about the topic and not Paul is Opt4FT and Aman aka hamburger.

Seriously, this is ridiculous.  You've got chiver78 who is a mod here saying "that's probably the most accurate statement you've made this year!"  please tell me how that is on topic and not a personal bash.

Tallguy - "I'm sure we can all take great comfort in the fact that in all his years of posting, the OP has never been right yet. "  Again, a personal bash.

And even Mmhmm gets into it - surprise, surprise - "He's behind Trump because Trump provides great fodder for his style of "entertainment."

Oh, but then she asked for people to keep the discussion off other posters LMAO!  Make sure you get your 2 cents in first .

my understanding is that there is an "i have beef with management" thread for stuff like this.

please correct me if i am wrong.

[happyhoix]

Sept 9, 2016 21:21:09 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I have a new outlandish prediction:  Clinton implodes completely. Johnson makes a real go of it, there are debates, he gains momentum and energy and overtakes Hillary Clinton to come in second. Still Trump in a massive landslide- that's pretty much assured now. The only question for me now is: can Hillary sustain a strong second place finish? I'm starting to think the unthinkable: one of the major parties implodes. 

I think you're right in that one of the major parties will explode post election day.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

The odd of a Trump, Johnson, Clinton finish just went up exponentially. In fact, if Clinton drops out (or drops dead) Johnson has a legit shot at the Presidency. Wouldn't THAT be interesting?

[djAdvocate]

Sept 12, 2016 19:19:39 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The odd of a Trump, Johnson, Clinton finish just went up exponentially. In fact, if Clinton drops out (or drops dead) Johnson has a legit shot at the Presidency. Wouldn't THAT be interesting?

the only way that happens is if all three are basically tied.  is that what you are predicting?

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

I take the stance that we're all big boys and girls, and it just rolls off. Especially this election cycle because I don't have to hope and pray Romney or McCain can be dragged across the finish line because we've got a candidate that can handle himself. And who probably won't die before November 8th. 

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Sept 12, 2016 19:21:52 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 12, 2016 19:19:39 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The odd of a Trump, Johnson, Clinton finish just went up exponentially. In fact, if Clinton drops out (or drops dead) Johnson has a legit shot at the Presidency. Wouldn't THAT be interesting?

the only way that happens is if all three are basically tied.  is that what you are predicting?

I gave my numbers.

[CORRECTION: sorry, I thought I had]

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Trump does not get less than 52% in my scenario, but could, by some accounts I have read, end up with 58%. Clinton implodes and Clinton - Johnson end up up dividing the rest with Johnson coming out ahead of Clinton with 25% to 28%, and Clinton picking up the scraps.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Trump doesn't get less than 52% in ANY scenario.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 12, 2016 19:28:08 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Trump does not get less than 52% in my scenario, but could, by some accounts I have read, end up with 58%. Clinton implodes and Clinton - Johnson end up up dividing the rest with Johnson coming out ahead of Clinton with 25% to 28%, and Clinton picking up the scraps.

yeah, i don't think there is any way that Clinton or Trump get less than 30%, and i doubt Trump gets over 50%.  it is unlikely that Clinton will, either, but it is possible.

so, from where i sit, both Clinton and Trump get 40-50%, Johnson gets around 10, and Stein gets the rest.

edit: i just checked, and as of today, Trump has less than a 50% chance of making 49%.

[Wisconsin Beth]

Sept 12, 2016 19:25:00 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I take the stance that we're all big boys and girls, and it just rolls off. Especially this election cycle because I don't have to hope and pray Romney or McCain can be dragged across the finish line because we've got a candidate that can handle himself. And who probably won't die before November 8th. 

Trump IS older than Clinton. Don't men usually kick the bucket earlier?

(Beth wanders out of thread for the night.)

[Opti]

Sept 12, 2016 19:28:29 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Trump doesn't get less than 52% in ANY scenario.

I guess I should bookmark this for November 9th then.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 12, 2016 19:40:15 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

Sept 12, 2016 19:25:00 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I take the stance that we're all big boys and girls, and it just rolls off. Especially this election cycle because I don't have to hope and pray Romney or McCain can be dragged across the finish line because we've got a candidate that can handle himself. And who probably won't die before November 8th. 

Trump IS older than Clinton. Don't men usually kick the bucket earlier?

(Beth wanders out of thread for the night.)

i mentioned that earlier.  actuarially, she is almost a decade younger than him.

[Wisconsin Beth]

Sept 12, 2016 23:20:18 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 12, 2016 19:40:15 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

Trump IS older than Clinton. Don't men usually kick the bucket earlier?

(Beth wanders out of thread for the night.)

i mentioned that earlier.  actuarially, she is almost a decade younger than him.

oh, sorry. I knew I'd seen it around.but didn't stop to think about where.