deminmaine: what does your experience with LaPage tell you..

[djAdvocate]

about the possibility, probability, and likelihood of a Trump presidency?

is Maine really different from the US?
is it more liberal?
more conservative?
about the same?

Trump is starting to scare me.  you tell me: can he win?

[Virgil Showlion]

LaPaging deminmaine. You're needed in the politics aisle.

[Deleted]

For you djAdvocate

[Virgil Showlion]

I think you're missing the point here.

Just tell him "Maine will sink into the ocean before we nominate Donald Trump," and that BA-DOOMP BA-DOOMP BA-DOOMP you hear will quiet down nicely.

How many RNC delegates does Maine have, anyway? You guys are barely over a million capita.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 9, 2015 11:27:24 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

deminmaine here, emerging from deep cover.

actually busy as heck at work and wuz on the road yesterday, so haven't been around.........

I'll answer as best I can.

First of all, Paul R. LePage was a longshot to win the GOP nomination in 2010.  I didn't study closely the dynamics of that race, but LePage obviously came out on top.  Yeah, he was a blowhard who was also a successful businessman, but he has the charisma of a bulldog.  However he had a strong anti tax and anti government message that certainly the GOP liked.  Plus he was perceived as capable.

That he won the general election for governor was due entirely to a 3 way election between himself, the Dem nominee Libby Mitchell, and a third party candidate, Eliot Cutler, who was defeated by Mitchell in the Dem nomination process, but went on as an Independent.  He proved to be a stronger candidate than Mitchell, and in fact got more votes than she did.  But by scooping up the moderate vote he divided it well enough so that LePage won the general election with less than 40% of the vote.

He did win re-election last year.  Once again, it was a 3 way race, as Cutler once again ran as an Independent.  The Democrats put up Congressman Mike Michaud, who came out at the beginning of the campaign as being gay.  Did Michaud's revelation hurt him?  Probably, at least somewhat.  While Cutler did not do very well this time around, he still siphoned off 8% of the vote, and with LePage now running as an incumbent, that was more than Michaud could overcome.  LePage was re-elected with a rather strong 48% of the vote.

Neither election was conventional, and Maine has more of a tendency than the country at large to entertain Independent candidacies.  (We have had two Independent Governors, and we currently have an Ind. Senator)  So in these regards, it is NOT like the nation as a whole.

However, it is very much like the nation in that it has a more liberal urban/ suburban area (in the south) and a more conservative rural area (most of the state, but very sparsely populated)  Overall it is considered, I think, a swing state.  Some people write it off as part of the liberal Northeast, but it has a large conservative population as well.  For a century it was "Rock Ribbed Republican", and only started breaking more Democratic in the last 40 years.  This is due to a combination of more liberal population influx from away in the south, and a change in the Republican party dynamic nationally that has turned off many of the old GOP stalwarts.  The largest party registration in Maine is Independent, then Democrat, and finally Republican in the rear.  However many of those Independents are NOT liberals by any means.

So, there it is, with all of the (very little) analysis I can give it at the moment.   Sorry, But I have little time today.

Does Trump have a chance?  In Maine?  I don't think so.... depending on the other candidates of course.  The Republicans I know- most who I have talked to don't like him.  But what about those damned Independents?

Nationally?  I don't think so...... I think Hillary takes him out.  Likeability aside, her message is very coherent and on point.  She has a good answer for every question, not just a Yuuuuge answer.  But it is waaaay early.

Virgil is right.  i was not asking what you think Maine will do with Trump, but what the NATION WILL DO WITH TRUMP, BASED ON YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH LAPAGE.

i can't really gather what your reply would be, based on the above, so can you give it another go?

[Virgil Showlion]

 

Dec 9, 2015 12:03:18 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 9, 2015 11:27:24 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

deminmaine here, emerging from deep cover.

actually busy as heck at work and wuz on the road yesterday, so haven't been around.........

I'll answer as best I can.

First of all, Paul R. LePage was a longshot to win the GOP nomination in 2010.  I didn't study closely the dynamics of that race, but LePage obviously came out on top.  Yeah, he was a blowhard who was also a successful businessman, but he has the charisma of a bulldog.  However he had a strong anti tax and anti government message that certainly the GOP liked.  Plus he was perceived as capable.

That he won the general election for governor was due entirely to a 3 way election between himself, the Dem nominee Libby Mitchell, and a third party candidate, Eliot Cutler, who was defeated by Mitchell in the Dem nomination process, but went on as an Independent.  He proved to be a stronger candidate than Mitchell, and in fact got more votes than she did.  But by scooping up the moderate vote he divided it well enough so that LePage won the general election with less than 40% of the vote.

He did win re-election last year.  Once again, it was a 3 way race, as Cutler once again ran as an Independent.  The Democrats put up Congressman Mike Michaud, who came out at the beginning of the campaign as being gay.  Did Michaud's revelation hurt him?  Probably, at least somewhat.  While Cutler did not do very well this time around, he still siphoned off 8% of the vote, and with LePage now running as an incumbent, that was more than Michaud could overcome.  LePage was re-elected with a rather strong 48% of the vote.

Neither election was conventional, and Maine has more of a tendency than the country at large to entertain Independent candidacies.  (We have had two Independent Governors, and we currently have an Ind. Senator)  So in these regards, it is NOT like the nation as a whole.

However, it is very much like the nation in that it has a more liberal urban/ suburban area (in the south) and a more conservative rural area (most of the state, but very sparsely populated)  Overall it is considered, I think, a swing state.  Some people write it off as part of the liberal Northeast, but it has a large conservative population as well.  For a century it was "Rock Ribbed Republican", and only started breaking more Democratic in the last 40 years.  This is due to a combination of more liberal population influx from away in the south, and a change in the Republican party dynamic nationally that has turned off many of the old GOP stalwarts.  The largest party registration in Maine is Independent, then Democrat, and finally Republican in the rear.  However many of those Independents are NOT liberals by any means.

So, there it is, with all of the (very little) analysis I can give it at the moment.   Sorry, But I have little time today.

Does Trump have a chance?  In Maine?  I don't think so.... depending on the other candidates of course.  The Republicans I know- most who I have talked to don't like him.  But what about those damned Independents?

Nationally?  I don't think so...... I think Hillary takes him out.  Likeability aside, her message is very coherent and on point.  She has a good answer for every question, not just a Yuuuuge answer.  But it is waaaay early.

Virgil is right.  i was not asking what you think Maine will do with Trump, but what the NATION WILL DO WITH TRUMP, BASED ON YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH LAPAGE.

i can't really gather what your reply would be, based on the above, so can you give it another go?

America isn't Maine. Gov. LaPage isn't Mr. Trump. Unless he's borderline off his nut, I'm pretty sure he doesn't bear much resemblance to him either.

I thought deminmaine's response was remarkably thorough, hence I'm going to boldly step in on his behalf and ask for some context: Why do you think Maine's "experience" with Gov. LaPage is relevant to Mr. Trump's bid for the 2016 Presidency? What factors specifically do you think make his candidacy a microcosm of Mr. Trump's?

[djAdvocate]

Dec 9, 2015 18:06:18 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

 

Dec 9, 2015 12:03:18 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Virgil is right.  i was not asking what you think Maine will do with Trump, but what the NATION WILL DO WITH TRUMP, BASED ON YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH LAPAGE.

i can't really gather what your reply would be, based on the above, so can you give it another go?

America isn't Maine. Gov. LaPage isn't Mr. Trump. Unless he's borderline off his nut, I'm pretty sure he doesn't bear much resemblance to him either.

I thought deminmaine 's response was remarkably thorough, hence I'm going to boldly step in on his behalf and ask for some context: Why do you think Maine's "experience" with Gov. LaPage is relevant to Mr. Trump's bid for the 2016 Presidency? What factors specifically do you think make his candidacy a microcosm of Mr. Trump's?

i am going to take the bold step of suggesting that dem probably knows the answer to that, as well.  i will let him answer.

[Virgil Showlion]

Dec 9, 2015 18:47:30 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 9, 2015 18:06:18 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

 America isn't Maine. Gov. LaPage isn't Mr. Trump. Unless he's borderline off his nut, I'm pretty sure he doesn't bear much resemblance to him either.

I thought deminmaine 's response was remarkably thorough, hence I'm going to boldly step in on his behalf and ask for some context: Why do you think Maine's "experience" with Gov. LaPage is relevant to Mr. Trump's bid for the 2016 Presidency? What factors specifically do you think make his candidacy a microcosm of Mr. Trump's?

i am going to take the bold step of suggesting that dem probably knows the answer to that, as well.  i will let him answer.

The hair, I'll bet.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 9, 2015 20:02:04 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

I honestly don't see much of a resemblance between the two men, frankly. They share some qualities, bluster, loud and politically incorrect statements, and some- but not all- of their political stances.  In fact, politically they are not close.  LePage has actually endorsed his buddy Christie for President. 

Aside from that though, Trump is a very smooth operator, for all of his bluster and babble.  He is slick and wily- more so than many people realize I think.  There is not a lot of guile to LePage.  He yells it like he sees it.  I don't think LePage is actually a demagogue.  While I don't agree with much of what he says, I actually think he is pretty honest.  I also don't think he is very cunning. 

I don't think, other than perhaps looking at how LePage took down the rest of the GOP field the first time around, there is enough of a similarity between the two to draw to much comparison between the two.

But dj I think you are thinking of something that makes you ask the question.  What do you see as the connection here, other than they both sound bat sheet crazy to many people?

no, it is just that simple.  but also, i think that both men seem to appeal to populist independents. 

thanks for your reply.  i took special interest in your guile remark.

edit: you didn't answer my last question tho: do you think Trump can win?

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2015 5:27:03 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Yes dj, I think you are dead on right about their appeal to independent populists, as well as voters with some of the same proclivities, which broadens their appeal from there a bit. LePage drips disdain for politics as usual, and makes no bones about it. A lot of people agree with him on that. Trump spits similar rancor on several different topics- immigrants and Muslims come to mind, and he too gets vocal support from many people for that.  Both use their status as outsiders who are businessmen, not politicians, to their advantage.

Do I think he can win?  Sure.  He is leading quite handily in polls of Republicans going into the primaries, and in head to head polls with HRC he is not that far behind.  As the GOP now is, one has to take his candidacy seriously.

Do I think he will win?  No, my money is still against him.  It's a long way to the White House, and this journey is just underway.  I will be surprised if he gets the GOP nomination, though of course he may.  The first Primaries after Iowa will be interesting.  If he gets that, Hillary is a  more formidable candidate than she is being given credit for now, and she will be especially strong against someone like a Trump.  We'll soon see I guess.

Do you think he can win?

can?  yes.  i think it would be foolish to say he can't.  i very much doubt he will.

my position has gone from: he is going to get primaried-out to "the results of the primary are unpredictable".