My Long Positions in Canadian Real Estate...

[Virgil Showlion]

...will make me rich beyond my wildest dreams.

Of course at this point it's just my condo in downtown Toronto, but as the years roll on it may be ten condos. A hundred!

Canadian real estate values can never decrease, especially in major urban centers. It's part of Gore's Second Law.

As global warming (or climate change, or whatever) accelerates, more and more of the continental US will sink beneath the ocean, rise to uncomfortable temperatures, etc. Hence what are Americans to do?

Move to Canada of course!

Not only will the move away from the newly-formed Ampliado Estatal de la Raza (the Spanish-speaking nation soon to consume most of AZ, NM, and half of TX) keep Americans out of harm's way, global warming will have transformed the Great White North into a more temperate climate.

There will be plenty of room in the cardboard shantytowns lining the northern US border, of course, but for people of means, the $3,500.00-per-square-foot Toronto condos will be the residence of choice.

Most importantly, Virgil will be rich! Hurrah for Virgil!

What is the topic of this thread, you ask? There are several possibilities, but the one I recommend is lavishing praise upon Virgil for inadvertently making himself rich by buying a condo in a city where property value decreases are literally impossible due to the natural laws of the universe.

You may also wish to gloat about your own long positions in Canadian real estate. Especially my fellow Canadians, like laterbloomer.

The word "bubble" is forbidden. I mean it. I've had enough of you climate change deniers.

[Wisconsin Beth]

So I can't talk about taking my kids to Toronto to blow bubbles? 

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 24, 2015 15:32:44 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

So I can't talk about taking my kids to Toronto to blow bubbles? 

You can, but refer to them as "soap orbs".

Also, instead of "overbought", use "hot-selling".

Instead of "crash", use "correction".

Instead of "drop" or "fall", use "lateral movement".

[Deleted]

[billisonboard]

My Long Position in US Real Estate...

[beergut]

Your models do not work.

That was the sound of your soap orb popping.

[tskeeter]

Jul 24, 2015 15:38:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 24, 2015 15:32:44 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

So I can't talk about taking my kids to Toronto to blow bubbles? 

You can, but refer to them as "soap orbs".

Also, instead of "overbought", use "hot-selling".

Instead of "crash", use "correction".

Instead of "drop" or "fall", use "lateral movement".

Drop/fall = decrimental verticle movement.

[phil5185]

As global warming (or climate change, or whatever) accelerates, more and more of the continental US will sink beneath the ocean, rise to uncomfortable temperatures, etc. Hence what are Americans to do?
Move to Canada of course!

Maybe it's already happening - corn & soybean growers. The north edge of the Cash Grain Growing belt has traditionally ended at about Minneapolis, farther north means early frost, short season, hit & miss results. But over the last decade or more, experiments with short-season GM corn has made big steps. Farmers are now having success with 95-day corn along the border (and above) in MN & SD. First and second order effects - ie, improved GM corn, plus Gore's Second Law (entropy?), has extended the Corn Belt by more than 50 miles north (added about 8 days to the growing season). And a 50-mile band of real estate along the border is huge, Vancouver to Lake Superior. 

So forget your Toronto condos, get thee out to Alberta & BC and buy up a few 100 sq miles of prairie.

Is it hard to drive a John Deere across the International border?

[Jaguar]

Kitty needs some dinner........

[Virgil Showlion]

When I eventually sell my condo for $2.6M, $.6M of that will go towards a hunting "safari" in the Hindu Kush mountains of Afghanistan.

I probably won't recoup anywhere near $.6M from the pelts of all the snow leopards I poach, but I bet I'll feel richer than Warren Buffet inside on the plane trip home.

[Deleted]

What will happen to Canadian real estate prices if your recession continues?  Did prices there drop like they did here is USA after 2008?  Prices here fell a great deal, but it was hard for me to take advantage of lower prices because I lost my job.  Are you thinking of buying more real estate there?  I realize your thread was meant in a jokey manner, but I am interested in the money aspects of what is happening.

The podcast that led me to the Canada recession article said that many commodities are artificially low in price now, but I do not think that is true for real estate.

I am unsure if this type of post is allowed here.  I do not understand the rules.  If not allowed, please delete.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 25, 2015 14:24:22 GMT -5 @hickle said:

What will happen to Canadian real estate prices if your recession continues?  Did prices there drop like they did here is USA after 2008?  Prices here fell a great deal, but it was hard for me to take advantage of lower prices because I lost my job.  Are you thinking of buying more real estate there?  I realize your thread was meant in a jokey manner, but I am interested in the money aspects of what is happening.

The podcast that led me to the Canada recession article said that many commodities are artificially low in price now, but I do not think that is true for real estate.

I am unsure if this type of post is allowed here.  I do not understand the rules.  If not allowed, please delete.

I created the thread as a "Canadian real estate as an investment" perspective, as opposed to your macroeconomic perspectives on the recession, which was suitable for CE.

I'm interested in where Canadian real estate is going too. As Apple mentioned in the previous discussion, it's not just about the need for property. Canadian real estate is an attractive place for foreigners (mainly the Chinese) to park huge amounts of money, and it's one of the reason prices are so high.

Having said that, my parents own a timeshare in western Canada, which they've held from 1981, and it's never decreased in value YoY, even in inflation-adjusted terms. It may not be a chief performing investment, but it's safe to say it's a stable investment long-term.

[TheOtherMe]

I can't help make you rich as Canada won't let me emigrate.  I tried about 15 years ago. 

[Deleted]

Jul 25, 2015 16:51:29 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 25, 2015 14:24:22 GMT -5 @hickle said:

What will happen to Canadian real estate prices if your recession continues?  Did prices there drop like they did here is USA after 2008?  Prices here fell a great deal, but it was hard for me to take advantage of lower prices because I lost my job.  Are you thinking of buying more real estate there?  I realize your thread was meant in a jokey manner, but I am interested in the money aspects of what is happening.

The podcast that led me to the Canada recession article said that many commodities are artificially low in price now, but I do not think that is true for real estate.

I am unsure if this type of post is allowed here.  I do not understand the rules.  If not allowed, please delete.

I created the thread as a "Canadian real estate as an investment" perspective, as opposed to your macroeconomic perspectives on the recession, which was suitable for CE.

I'm interested in where Canadian real estate is going too. As Apple mentioned in the previous discussion, it's not just about the need for property. Canadian real estate is an attractive place for foreigners (mainly the Chinese) to park huge amounts of money, and it's one of the reason prices are so high.

Having said that, my parents own a timeshare in western Canada, which they've held from 1981, and it's never decreased in value YoY, even in inflation-adjusted terms. It may not be a chief performing investment, but it's safe to say it's a stable investment long-term.

so what is your long term thinking of Canadian real estate prices?  Would you buy now for investment purposes?  Would you short if you could?

Do you think real estate there will follow other commodity prices?  Can I start a thread asking for opinions on commodity investing including real estate on YM without it being moved?

[OldCoyote]

Jul 24, 2015 15:29:05 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

...will make me rich beyond my wildest dreams.

Of course at this point it's just my condo in downtown Toronto, but as the years roll on it may be ten condos. A hundred!

Canadian real estate values can never decrease, especially in major urban centers. It's part of Gore's Second Law.

As global warming (or climate change, or whatever) accelerates, more and more of the continental US will sink beneath the ocean, rise to uncomfortable temperatures, etc. Hence what are Americans to do?

Move to Canada of course!

Not only will the move away from the newly-formed Ampliado Estatal de la Raza (the Spanish-speaking nation soon to consume most of AZ, NM, and half of TX) keep Americans out of harm's way, global warming will have transformed the Great White North into a more temperate climate.

There will be plenty of room in the cardboard shantytowns lining the northern US border, of course, but for people of means, the $3,500.00-per-square-foot Toronto condos will be the residence of choice.

Most importantly, Virgil will be rich! Hurrah for Virgil!

What is the topic of this thread, you ask? There are several possibilities, but the one I recommend is lavishing praise upon Virgil for inadvertently making himself rich by buying a condo in a city where property value decreases are literally impossible due to the natural laws of the universe.

You may also wish to gloat about your own long positions in Canadian real estate. Especially my fellow Canadians, like laterbloomer.

The word "bubble" is forbidden. I mean it. I've had enough of you climate change deniers.

Listening to a financial Guru on a Sunday morning a few years back, telling his listeners that property values would never go down.

He was, and advising everyone to buy up every house they could.   Everyone was going to be rich.  Then 2008 happened!

I wonder if he is still a financial guru? 

[Deleted]

Not much of this thread is about money, it is more about silliness.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 25, 2015 19:43:40 GMT -5 @hickle said:

Jul 25, 2015 16:51:29 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

I created the thread as a "Canadian real estate as an investment" perspective, as opposed to your macroeconomic perspectives on the recession, which was suitable for CE.

I'm interested in where Canadian real estate is going too. As Apple mentioned in the previous discussion, it's not just about the need for property. Canadian real estate is an attractive place for foreigners (mainly the Chinese) to park huge amounts of money, and it's one of the reason prices are so high.

Having said that, my parents own a timeshare in western Canada, which they've held from 1981, and it's never decreased in value YoY, even in inflation-adjusted terms. It may not be a chief performing investment, but it's safe to say it's a stable investment long-term.

so what is your long term thinking of Canadian real estate prices?  Would you buy now for investment purposes?  Would you short if you could?

Do you think real estate there will follow other commodity prices?  Can I start a thread asking for opinions on commodity investing including real estate on YM without it being moved?

Commodity prices is a topic for Market Talk.

I would never short real estate. It is a bad idea, I don't care how overpriced the market is.

You should start up a "Canadian real estate?" thread over on the investing forums and ask the veterans there what they think. They'll be able to provide better advice than I could.

[weltschmerz]

Jul 24, 2015 18:58:49 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

When I eventually sell my condo for $2.6M, $.6M of that will go towards a hunting "safari" in the Hindu Kush mountains of Afghanistan.

I probably won't recoup anywhere near $.6M from the pelts of all the snow leopards I poach, but I bet I'll feel richer than Warren Buffet inside on the plane trip home.

Not if I "poach" you first. Your gallbladder will make excellent traditional medicine. I can grind your bones and sell them as tiger bone powder, for mens' limp noodles.

[weltschmerz]

Jul 26, 2015 15:13:29 GMT -5 Ratchets said:

Virgil Showlion, can you buy land in Canada that's like "pristine wilderness" with a nice fishing lake for a reasonable amount, or would that cost a bazillion loonies?

Of course! It depends on how far north you're willing to go.

[weltschmerz]

What do you consider a "reasonable amount"? I picked one out of a hat for you.

www.landwatch.com/default.aspx?ct=R&type=13,12;268,6839&r.PRIC=145624%2c245260

[cronewitch]

Jul 24, 2015 15:39:24 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Adorable kitten snow leopard, will Canada have more after the warming?

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 26, 2015 17:59:19 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

Jul 24, 2015 18:58:49 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

When I eventually sell my condo for $2.6M, $.6M of that will go towards a hunting "safari" in the Hindu Kush mountains of Afghanistan.

I probably won't recoup anywhere near $.6M from the pelts of all the snow leopards I poach, but I bet I'll feel richer than Warren Buffet inside on the plane trip home.

Not if I "poach" you first. Your gallbladder will make excellent traditional medicine. I can grind your bones and sell them as tiger bone powder, for mens' limp noodles.

Tsk tsk. Such violence.

A note to our US brethren: Weltz is not your typical Canadian neighbour. Relatively few Canadians will kill you to harvest your sweet, sweet bone marrow.

Invest in a cabin in northern Quebec now, and visit the Great White North just in time for seal-clubbing season! (Non-violent seal clubbing, of course.)

[Deleted]

Canadian jobs are not as good as they used to be,

 www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-quality-in-canada-at-25-year-low-says-cibc-1.2982891

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 27, 2015 9:46:17 GMT -5 @hickle said:

Canadian jobs are not as good as they used to be,

 www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-quality-in-canada-at-25-year-low-says-cibc-1.2982891

Indeed.

What's worse, our national data bureaus are rank amateurs compared to the BLS, the US Treasury Dept., etc. when it comes to faking jobs data, GDP growth, and other econometrics. Hence when our economy takes a dive, our markets are actually impacted by it.

Bear that in mind.

In the US, you could have the entire eastern seaboard wiped off the Earth by a tsunami and you'd still get a +2.2% GDP print for that quarter.

What is your specific interest, if you don't mind my asking? Are you looking at Canadian real estate as an investment?

[Deleted]

Jul 27, 2015 10:02:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 27, 2015 9:46:17 GMT -5 @hickle said:

Canadian jobs are not as good as they used to be,

 www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-quality-in-canada-at-25-year-low-says-cibc-1.2982891

Indeed.

What's worse, our national data bureaus are rank amateurs compared to the BLS, the US Treasury Dept., etc. when it comes to faking jobs data, GDP growth, and other econometrics. Hence when our economy takes a dive, our markets are actually impacted by it.

Bear that in mind.

In the US, you could have the entire eastern seaboard wiped off the Earth by a tsunami and you'd still get a +2.2% GDP print for that quarter.

What is your specific interest, if you don't mind my asking? Are you looking at Canadian real estate as an investment?

I like talking about the economy.  I like talking about big ideas.  That is part of the allure of current events and politics to me, but I think politics in the real world is fake bs meant to get people arguing over things that do not matter.  I like big ideas and money but not political ideology.  Not to go back to the complaint thing, but that was always a big part of my postings on ym and why I liked it so much, arguing about economy and capitalism and what was fair or unfair about some big thing.  I never really liked the budget discussions, cut the cable bill type posts.

It is like Archie said in another post, ym is a different forum now.

[Virgil Showlion]

Jul 27, 2015 10:09:39 GMT -5 @hickle said:

Jul 27, 2015 10:02:40 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Indeed.

What's worse, our national data bureaus are rank amateurs compared to the BLS, the US Treasury Dept., etc. when it comes to faking jobs data, GDP growth, and other econometrics. Hence when our economy takes a dive, our markets are actually impacted by it.

Bear that in mind.

In the US, you could have the entire eastern seaboard wiped off the Earth by a tsunami and you'd still get a +2.2% GDP print for that quarter.

What is your specific interest, if you don't mind my asking? Are you looking at Canadian real estate as an investment?

I like talking about the economy.  I like talking about big ideas.  That is part of the allure of current events and politics to me, but I think politics in the real world is fake bs meant to get people arguing over things that do not matter.  I like big ideas and money but not political ideology.  Not to go back to the complaint thing, but that was always a big part of my postings on ym and why I liked it so much, arguing about economy and capitalism and what was fair or unfair about some big thing.  I never really liked the budget discussions, cut the cable bill type posts.

It is like Archie said in another post, ym is a different forum now.

I still don't understand why you requested the thread lock on the "Canada is in recession" thread.

Your request stipulated the thread was too political and not economic enough, but there isn't a single political post to be found in the entire thread.

It seems you're using 'political' as a stand-in for 'mildly contentious', but you're never going to get a worthwhile ideas thread that isn't at least mildly contentious.

Before Decoy409 got the boot, remember how much vitriol his bleak predictions stirred up? Bleak predictions scare people. Any time they come into the picture, you're going to get skepticism with teeth. There's no such thing as a recession thread where everybody just sits back and accepts the premise of an imminent recession. Also, YMAM-ers in particular can't deal with hypotheticals. "Assuming X, what are the consequences?" is a no-go on our board. Most of the YMAM debate heavies categorically refuse to discuss issues in the hypothetical. They either fixate on disproving the predicate, or they opt out entirely.

[ArchietheDragon]

Jul 27, 2015 12:27:16 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Jul 27, 2015 10:09:39 GMT -5 @hickle said:

I like talking about the economy.  I like talking about big ideas.  That is part of the allure of current events and politics to me, but I think politics in the real world is fake bs meant to get people arguing over things that do not matter.  I like big ideas and money but not political ideology.  Not to go back to the complaint thing, but that was always a big part of my postings on ym and why I liked it so much, arguing about economy and capitalism and what was fair or unfair about some big thing.  I never really liked the budget discussions, cut the cable bill type posts.

It is like Archie said in another post, ym is a different forum now.

I still don't understand why you requested the thread lock on the "Canada is in recession" thread.

Your request stipulated the thread was too political and not economic enough, but there isn't a single political post to be found in the entire thread.

It seems you're using 'political' as a stand-in for 'mildly contentious', but you're never going to get a worthwhile ideas thread that isn't at least mildly contentious.

Before Decoy409 got the boot, remember how much vitriol his bleak predictions stirred up? Bleak predictions scare people. Any time they come into the picture, you're going to get skepticism with teeth. There's no such thing as a recession thread where everybody just sits back and accepts the premise of an imminent recession. Also, YMAM-ers in particular can't deal with hypotheticals. "Assuming X, what are the consequences?" is a no-go on our board. Most of the YMAM debate heavies categorically refuse to discuss issues in the hypothetical. They either fixate on disproving the predicate, or they opt out entirely.

On second thought, let's not go to YMAM.  'Tis a silly place. 

[lexxy703]

I want one of those Canadian islands I keep seeing on Island Hunters.  From what I've seen on HGTV Canadian real estate is outrageously expensive.

[weltschmerz]

Jul 27, 2015 14:36:36 GMT -5 lexxy703 said:

I want one of those Canadian islands I keep seeing on Island Hunters.  From what I've seen on HGTV Canadian real estate is outrageously expensive.

Depends on where it is......just like in the US.

Thousand Islands lakefront? It's going to be expensive.

It's kind of like me saying "I was watching House Hunters in Manhattan. Real estate in the US is outrageously expensive!"

[Deleted]

Prices of Canadian real estate are going up because of the speculaton that we (usa) are about to make them a state.