We Must be Reaching another Real Estate Peak

[Bonny]

I got my free tix to The Flipping Formula at the Hilton at San Francisco Airport.

Next I'm going to be getting real estate tips at the coffee shop!

[mroped]

Too many people got sucked into buying a house just because they looked good.
Too many people who think that a new coat of paint means "fixing" a house or even worse "remodel"
  
Just because one owns a circular saw, a claw hammer, a square and a level doesn't mean he is a contractor or a builder.

Would be like me claiming that I have extended knowledge of computers because I know how to turn one on( in all reality that's about all I know!  )

housing booms om are on a circular pattern. 
If there is one going on now that means some financier found another way to trick people into getting in debt beyond their means. At the end he will walk away with a pile of money and many will loose their homes.

[Sam_2.0]

I hope there is - then maybe we can sell our old house and be done with it.

[TheHaitian]

Must be so because I contacted Zillow to get them to update the tax information to get an improved value (old tax only had the land value of $91,000 before house was built) and got email below:




I had to take a double take. I emailed them back asking them to re-verify the address because I doubt it is correct

I purchased my house for 300k last year, if tax assessment is coming at 500k I think we would have a problem in our hands.

I check our town website to verify and they have it at $289,700 for this year.
So zillow definitely had the wrong address

I would sell tomorrow if it was true

[tskeeter]

Feb 18, 2015 13:39:23 GMT -5 TheHaitian said:

Must be so because I contacted Zillow to get them to update the tax information to get an improved value (old tax only had the land value of $91,000 before house was built) and got email below:




I had to take a double take. I emailed them back asking them to re-verify the address because I doubt it is correct

I purchased my house for 300k last year, if tax assessment is coming at 500k I think we would have a problem in our hands.

I check our town website to verify and they have it at $289,700 for this year.
So zillow definitely had the wrong address

I would sell tomorrow if it was true

Interesting.  I guess free information is worth what you pay for it. 

[souldoubt]

It seems like things around me slowed down quite a bit but I consider that a good thing.  I bought my place in late 2012 and our area as a whole saw a 20% appreciation in 2013.  It worked out well for me because I got out of paying PMI after having an appraisal done but low inventory and low rates were big drivers in the appreciation.  Now I've noticed places on the market a lot longer (when I bought places had multiple offers in a few days) which gives me hope that maybe we won't see huge jumps in prices.  I'd be all for prices declining a bit or just very small appreciation because around here the median home price is still like 8x the average household income.      

[Deleted]

Bummer, I just bought a house.  Where I am now and where I sold are still 10%+ below the last peak in 2006, so I am hoping we are just in a recovery after 10 years of 0 growth.

I have noticed that sales took off when interest rates declined.  When I put a contract on my house, the subdivision had 7 spec houses in some state of construction and 4 lots available in this phase.  At that point finished houses were on the market for like 120 days.  Now they have 2 houses that haven't been started yet and houses are going under contract before they hit MLS.  

[Tiny]

LOL!  I was just checking Zillow for the values of houses in my area - and I saw, for the first time since the house on the corner  sold in 2009 (as the market was in the midst of a Free Fall) that it had a zillow 'guesstimate' of about 3K LESS than it sold for in 2009.   Usually it's been 30K to 40K below the price it sold for.  My immediate area real estate hit the bottom hard last QTR 2013.

I also noticed for the first time since I started watching Zillow guesstimates that ALL the guesstimate values of the condos in the complex with the Condo in the Sun jumped up by 20K!   And I noticed that the number of sales of units skyrocketted between Oct 2014 and end of January 2015.    

I'm not sure if Zillow finally updated their info for the two areas I check a couple times a year after years of neglect OR if the housing market is really coming back...in the areas I own.

I'm sure it all means something...     Like maybe there's another housing meltdown on the horizon! 

 

[TheHaitian]

Feb 18, 2015 14:31:13 GMT -5 tskeeter said:

Feb 18, 2015 13:39:23 GMT -5 TheHaitian said:

Must be so because I contacted Zillow to get them to update the tax information to get an improved value (old tax only had the land value of $91,000 before house was built) and got email below:




I had to take a double take. I emailed them back asking them to re-verify the address because I doubt it is correct

I purchased my house for 300k last year, if tax assessment is coming at 500k I think we would have a problem in our hands.

I check our town website to verify and they have it at $289,700 for this year.
So zillow definitely had the wrong address

I would sell tomorrow if it was true

Interesting.  I guess free information is worth what you pay for it. 

Lol I just got a reply back.

They got house number and street right but town wrong. It is a house in next town over that is more "posh" and "ritzy".

Location, location, location!

[NastyWoman]

I live just a few miles from the Spaceship new Apple headquarters in progress and you sure can see that in the prices around this area (also less than 8 miles from Superbowl LX).


ETA that the Spaceship is not yet completed but once done it will add a lot of jobs right here.

[tskeeter]

Feb 18, 2015 14:46:16 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

I wonder if we will see the same sort of bifurcation in housing prices as we see in income levels.  Like high end housing will continue to gain value and so will low end housing like apartments and rentals but everything in between will stagnate.

I think you are on to something.  But, the degree of resolution in reported shifts in home prices is amazing.  Within our neighborhood, some valuations are up 55% over the last 12 months, while others are up more in the range of 25%.  The difference?  The view.  The homes enjoying the greatest increase have really nice views and they back up against a wide open area.  The homes with more modest appreciation have some views, but they overlook the roof of the house immediately behind them. 

[HoneyBBQ]

Feb 18, 2015 15:23:08 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

Feb 18, 2015 14:46:16 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

I wonder if we will see the same sort of bifurcation in housing prices as we see in income levels.  Like high end housing will continue to gain value and so will low end housing like apartments and rentals but everything in between will stagnate.

That's sort of happening in Seattle.  South king county (the outskirts) that are more blue collar are flat or still under peak.  close in in desireable hoods is skyjacking and is over the 2007 peak price, with almost nothing for sale.

transportation is so bad, that people will pay through the nose to live in city.

I bought in late spring of 2013. My house has "zillow" appreciated over 200k in that time from purchase price til estimated sale price now. WTF??  I know Zillow is crap but even if it's half the anticipated gain... it's nuts here. Just crazy.

[TheHaitian]

Feb 18, 2015 15:23:08 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

Feb 18, 2015 14:46:16 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

I wonder if we will see the same sort of bifurcation in housing prices as we see in income levels.  Like high end housing will continue to gain value and so will low end housing like apartments and rentals but everything in between will stagnate.

That's sort of happening in Seattle.  South king county (the outskirts) that are more blue collar are flat or still under peak.  close in in desireable hoods is skyjacking and is over the 2007 peak price, with almost nothing for sale.

transportation is so bad, that people will pay through the nose to live in city.

Sounds like Boston and the outskirts of Boston.

We are kicking ourselves for not buying a house in Natick in 2013...cons were:
- about 200-300 years
- 3 bedrooms but none had closets
- they were using bedroom # 3 as closet
- basement was not a full basement and they were using poles * to help keep the house leveled.

260k and the only house we could afford in Natick at the time, next one was 350k. We passed... Now that house is worth over 350k itself and alway 3 stops closer to Boston vs current so would have saved my wife another 45 minutes commute.

[TheHaitian]

Oh I googled the house with the same address but next town over. It is 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths, 2 car garage and 1,000 sqft or so bigger... And +220k more :eek::eek:

We won't be upgrading anytime soon

But got my issue resolved, would like to see what my home value comes back at next week.

[HoneyBBQ]

Feb 18, 2015 16:33:21 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

I bought in late spring of 2013. My house has "zillow" appreciated over 200k in that time from purchase price til estimated sale price now. WTF?? I know Zillow is crap but even if it's half the anticipated gain... it's nuts here. Just crazy.

Aren't you glad you didn't listen to me when I told you to buy something more modest?

LOL. Did you tell me to do that? I wanted modest, honestly. but it's hard to get a yard in Seattle. As is, I only have a 4700 sq ft lot, and my yard is enormous compared to most lol. 

[tallguy]

Feb 18, 2015 16:29:25 GMT -5 HoneyBBQ said:

Feb 18, 2015 15:23:08 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

That's sort of happening in Seattle.  South king county (the outskirts) that are more blue collar are flat or still under peak.  close in in desireable hoods is skyjacking and is over the 2007 peak price, with almost nothing for sale.

transportation is so bad, that people will pay through the nose to live in city.

I bought in late spring of 2013. My house has "zillow" appreciated over 200k in that time from purchase price til estimated sale price now. WTF??  I know Zillow is crap but even if it's half the anticipated gain... it's nuts here. Just crazy.

Yeah, my Zillow value has gone up over $150,000 since then.  Doesn't matter, I'm never selling.  What is worse, though, is that my tax assessment jumped $200,000+ THIS YEAR.  That was such a nice surprise on Monday.  

[HoneyBBQ]

Feb 18, 2015 19:00:41 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

Feb 18, 2015 18:35:16 GMT -5 HoneyBBQ said:

LOL. Did you tell me to do that? I wanted modest, honestly. but it's hard to get a yard in Seattle. As is, I only have a 4700 sq ft lot, and my yard is enormous compared to most lol. 

as you already know, you'll do great where you're at over the long haul.

I'm still trying to time my other investments to determine how long I sit on stuff.  PS, we do need to do a brewery happy hour soon and invite some other Seattleites

Yes! Sorry I've been MIA I meant to schedule something with you. Somehow things seem so busy!  How many Seattlites do we have? At least 5ish I think...

I'm hoping when I sell in 15 years it'll be twice the price, but I guess you never know. At least it should be paid off then, so I can tap that asset.

[alabamagal]

I am about to sell my home to my relocation company. It has been on thearket for 2 months and only 1 person toured the house. Based on the comments we received, the viewer expected a HGTV redone 4br 3ba home for $150L.

My buyout offer from the relocation company is $130k and I will take it on March 2. I have had the house since 1988. During that time we did a MBR addition and kitchen remodel. Taking into account the money paid for the addition. Our rate of return on the house is 0.6% over 26 years.

[yogiii]

Feb 19, 2015 8:02:37 GMT -5 alabamagal said:

I am about to sell my home to my relocation company. It has been on thearket for 2 months and only 1 person toured the house. Based on the comments we received, the viewer expected a HGTV redone 4br 3ba home for $150L.

My buyout offer from the relocation company is $130k and I will take it on March 2. I have had the house since 1988. During that time we did a MBR addition and kitchen remodel. Taking into account the money paid for the addition. Our rate of return on the house is 0.6% over 26 years.

Just curious, are you also taking into account the interest you paid on your home loan?

[Bonny]

Feb 19, 2015 8:02:37 GMT -5 alabamagal said:

I am about to sell my home to my relocation company. It has been on thearket for 2 months and only 1 person toured the house. Based on the comments we received, the viewer expected a HGTV redone 4br 3ba home for $150L.

My buyout offer from the relocation company is $130k and I will take it on March 2. I have had the house since 1988. During that time we did a MBR addition and kitchen remodel. Taking into account the money paid for the addition. Our rate of return on the house is 0.6% over 26 years.

Ouch.

Is there a lot of new building in your area? Is it economically depressed?

[bean29]

A few posters have mentioned the "HGTV Effect" and how it affects buyer expectations. But realistically when do you ever see those HGTV shows featuring a $150,000 house? They usually are buying a house for $400,000, $600,000 or more and then adding major renovations on top of it. 

I do think owning real estate is a bad investment - I plan to try to the mixed use property we own in another year or two. We will then own two properties - our house and the business property.  I like the idea of owning the property I live in as long as I plan to reside in the area for at least 5 years. I don't see us leaving Wisconsin until DH chooses to retire, although we could sell the existing agency and buy another one in a nicer climate if he wanted to semi-retire.

If I was my kids I would be tempted to move into the parent's basement. We have it set up as a separate living unit (Bedroom, Bath, Kitchen, Family Room with a separate entrance.  It is nicer than any apartment DH or I ever lived in when we were single. 

[HoneyBBQ]

Feb 19, 2015 8:02:37 GMT -5 alabamagal said:

I am about to sell my home to my relocation company. It has been on thearket for 2 months and only 1 person toured the house. Based on the comments we received, the viewer expected a HGTV redone 4br 3ba home for $150L.

My buyout offer from the relocation company is $130k and I will take it on March 2. I have had the house since 1988. During that time we did a MBR addition and kitchen remodel. Taking into account the money paid for the addition. Our rate of return on the house is 0.6% over 26 years.

Yoswers! how did you calculate your return rate...?

[dondub]

I'm also a Seattleite and live north of Ballard/Olympic Manor. The building boom in Ballard is unreal. The old Svenskis are rolling in their graves.

[obelisk]

Here in Southern Ca (south county) the housing is moving really slow since the summer of '14.  No longer in escrow in less than 10 days.  According to the local real estate agent the cash buyers and investors have disappeared.  The house I purchased April '14 has depreciated 10K according to refi appraisal done 3 weeks ago.

[snapdragon]

Feb 19, 2015 12:16:51 GMT -5 @anne81 said:

A few posters have mentioned the "HGTV Effect" and how it affects buyer expectations. But realistically when do you ever see those HGTV shows featuring a $150,000 house?

Renovation Realities is the only one I can think of.

I look at a lot of decorating/housing blogs, magazines and the Houzz app and it's definitely shifted my expectations and desires in a house upward.  It's easy to forget that most of us live in regular homes and therefore don't show up in the media.

I have several issues with that damn "house porn channel."
     1 - I don't like granite ---give me a really nice laminate any day
     2 - I can't stand SS -- it now costs more money to get a white fridge than a SS one! 
     3 - places look like a model home. Who wants to live in a freaking model home 24/7/365?
     4 - Costs are completely skewed on most reno shows. My dad was in the building industry his entire working life and he always comments that the prices they quote don't seem to include labor. It's mostly product. Either that or HGTV is covering some of the labor costs. 



        

[snapdragon]

we do need to do a brewery happy hour soon and invite some other Seattleites

I could be up for a hard cider. Especially if it has a shot of Fireball in it. 

[souldoubt]

1. It's all a matter of preference.  I prefer granite which is why we had that put in when we replaced our formica counter tops.  
2. Before I bought my place I would have agreed with you but after having black appliances I'm going SS once I replace the oven and microwave.  I'm not going to get a new fridge because I won't need one yet which may look tacky since I'll have SS/black but I don't care.
3. I don't want to live in a model home but my next place will be our "forever" place barring unforeseen circumstances.  Tastes and what's in always change but I'd love to have an open living room/kitchen/dining area with updated appliances, counters, flooring and so on.
4. Of course they are.  That's like watching Storage Wars and believing the prices they put on the crap they pull out of some of those lockers.  We watch quite a few HGTV shows and one is Flip or Flop which is about the married couple who flips properties all over SoCal which is our area.  They're about the only one that consistently goes over their budget because they go high end and as anyone who has ever done work to their house knows costs run over.  That said they've sold some of their places for way more than I'd pay in some of those areas as I think their name/show helps them out to a degree.

I just take HGTV for what it is - entertainment and not gospel.  Some of the people on their have different tastes or just live in a different world than I do when it comes to upgrades.  To each their own.

[alabamagal]

Feb 19, 2015 9:41:28 GMT -5 Bonny said:

Feb 19, 2015 8:02:37 GMT -5 alabamagal said:

I am about to sell my home to my relocation company. It has been on thearket for 2 months and only 1 person toured the house. Based on the comments we received, the viewer expected a HGTV redone 4br 3ba home for $150L.

My buyout offer from the relocation company is $130k and I will take it on March 2. I have had the house since 1988. During that time we did a MBR addition and kitchen remodel. Taking into account the money paid for the addition. Our rate of return on the house is 0.6% over 26 years.

Ouch.

Is there a lot of new building in your area? Is it economically depressed?

I used calculator plugged in urchase price investment in addition and sale price

The house is in mid size town with no growth. The city/ county I live in has terrible school syst and there is a lot of middle class flight to the next county 3 miles away with better schools

It was a good home for my kids to grow up in ( they went to private school) but it was not a good investment.

[snapdragon]

I just take HGTV for what it is - entertainment and not gospel. Some of the people on their have different tastes or just live in a different world than I do when it comes to upgrades. To each their own.

I know. I still get sucked in to watching every time I visit with Dad. I know it's entertainment, but I believe some people are not even thinking about taking those shows with a pinch of salt.

[justme]

The renovation shows crack me up with the buyers hating the houses. Uh, that's why your on a renovation show! I wouldn't do well on the show, I'd just keep asking Jonathan what he's going to do for me in each room. Lol