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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2014 0:29:17 GMT -5
OK- it is two weeks to election day, and the field is changing slightly in the favor of Democrats: more favorable polling in NH for Dems and LA for Repubs caused me to move those states out of leaning to solid today. more favorable polling in CO, GA, IA, and GA for Dems moves CO back to tossup. Republican solid : 47 Democrat solid: 47
Leaning Republican: AK, AR
Tossup: IA, KS, GA, COnote: the GOP leads in ALL SIX of these races, so they could, conceivably, end up with 53. however, the scenario has shifted a bit since last week, in that IA is now the tipping point state, with Whacadoodle Ernst leading, but by a razor thin, and shrinking margin. i now give the GOP 5:3 odds of winning this thing. if i were confident that the Dems would continue gaining where they have been gaining the last two weeks, i would favor them winning the Senate, but i just don't think the momentum will hold. however, i am down about 10% on odds of them winning from last week, and wheras i would have quite confidently placed money on the GOP last week, i think this race is too close to call again. my reason? stuff happens. it really does. and the GOP are GREAT at losing elections. one more comment: i think it is VERY unlikely that the control of the Senate will be decided on November 4th. LA and GA are probably going to have runoff elections, and the runoff favors the GOP in both cases. if Nunn is going to win, it will probably have to be on the 4th, and she is not quite there yet. she has to be polling at over 50%, and her best so far is 48%. she MIGHT make it. MIGHT. early in the race, i thought GA would be interesting, but the polling for Nunn has been LOUSY until the last two weeks. however, a funny thing has happened on the way to the election. in the last 2 weeks, Nunn has picked up 3%, and Perdue has remained stuck at 45%. if she keeps this up, by next week she will have enough of a lead to win outright on November 4th, and it will become her election to lose. you have an interesting state this year, happyhoix.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2014 0:36:46 GMT -5
happy: having established that GA is firmly swing- can you describe some of the stuff going on in this race and offer some insights? this is Nunn -vs- Perdue.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 21, 2014 7:51:31 GMT -5
MSNBC is still promoting polls showing dems holding the position in the Senate this morning. They refuse to give up their propaganda push. Has Kentucky at a draw, no less.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 21, 2014 8:00:44 GMT -5
happy: having established that GA is firmly swing- can you describe some of the stuff going on in this race and offer some insights? this is Nunn -vs- Perdue. Well you have to keep in mind that I live in a tiny, poor county that is right near the TN border so most of the political ads that do air on our system are actually for TN and not GA, so I will not claim to be politically in the thick of things. However Nunn's group has dug up an old 2005 deposition where Perdue was asked about outsourcing, and he brags that he has been outsourcing his whole career. Perdue was president of a failed textile company, Pillowtex, and he has always blamed the loss of Georgia jobs on Washington policies, so to find that deposition where he talks about outsourcing jobs to Mexico and China doesn't look good, especially because he's been selling himself as the candidate who knows how to run a business and create jobs, based on being CEO of Dollar General. www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/perdue-proud-of-outsourcing-past-blames-washington/nhcsk/Nunn has been running ads with Perdue's voice recorded during the deposition talking about how good he was at outsourcing, and she's got some ads with ex Pillowtex workers talking about how Perdue came in and shut their company down (largest single loss of jobs in NC history). I think this approach has been what's eroding Perdue's lead.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2014 10:21:47 GMT -5
MSNBC is still promoting polls showing dems holding the position in the Senate this morning. They refuse to give up their propaganda push. Has Kentucky at a draw, no less. in some polls, KY IS a draw. in fact, the last TWO polls conducted there were within error. however, the one before it shows McConnell up by 9%. i think that MSNBC is suffering from the same difficulty that FOX was in 2012. they are cherry picking the data to suit their agenda. edit: nobody who is reasonably rational can see this election as anything but the GOP's to lose.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2014 10:25:04 GMT -5
happy: having established that GA is firmly swing- can you describe some of the stuff going on in this race and offer some insights? this is Nunn -vs- Perdue. Well you have to keep in mind that I live in a tiny, poor county that is right near the TN border so most of the political ads that do air on our system are actually for TN and not GA, so I will not claim to be politically in the thick of things. However Nunn's group has dug up an old 2005 deposition where Perdue was asked about outsourcing, and he brags that he has been outsourcing his whole career. Perdue was president of a failed textile company, Pillowtex, and he has always blamed the loss of Georgia jobs on Washington policies, so to find that deposition where he talks about outsourcing jobs to Mexico and China doesn't look good, especially because he's been selling himself as the candidate who knows how to run a business and create jobs, based on being CEO of Dollar General. www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/perdue-proud-of-outsourcing-past-blames-washington/nhcsk/Nunn has been running ads with Perdue's voice recorded during the deposition talking about how good he was at outsourcing, and she's got some ads with ex Pillowtex workers talking about how Perdue came in and shut their company down (largest single loss of jobs in NC history). I think this approach has been what's eroding Perdue's lead. then you are not far from Athens and Atlanta, both of which are highly Democratic. Perdue kinda sounds like Romney. does he have a similar personality? no matter how badly people feel about government, they loathe elitism even more. populism is a pretty good angle. even on the right.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 21, 2014 10:36:14 GMT -5
Well he has the same "I'm a great businessman and only great businessmen can run the country" vibe as Romney, and although he tries to come off as a man of the people he can be dismissive of things that are important to blue collar people.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2014 12:06:23 GMT -5
Well he has the same "I'm a great businessman and only great businessmen can run the country" vibe as Romney, and although he tries to come off as a man of the people he can be dismissive of things that are important to blue collar people. what's your current UE rate in GA? is the "this place needs a better manager" vibe going to even RESONATE down there?
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 21, 2014 13:00:46 GMT -5
Well he has the same "I'm a great businessman and only great businessmen can run the country" vibe as Romney, and although he tries to come off as a man of the people he can be dismissive of things that are important to blue collar people. what's your current UE rate in GA? is the "this place needs a better manager" vibe going to even RESONATE down there? Hung around 7 for a while, up to 8.1 in August, dipped a tiny bit to 7.9 in September. So about the same as Mississippi and TN, worse than most other states, but still way better than it was in 2010/2011. It's hard for me to get a sense of the rest of GA because I live in such a little backwater conservative TEA party county, I know most of my neighbors will vote Republican just because they think Obama is the antichrist, but two weeks ago I was in Savannah - much different vibe there. I'm going to be very interested to see how GA goes in this election. Used to be a pretty black and white issue (literally) with the big cities voting for the dems and the rural small town areas heavily republican, but the newer generation (like my 26 year old DS) are less religious and less conservative than their parents, and I suspect some of the solidly conservative counties may be less solid this time around.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2014 13:02:39 GMT -5
what's your current UE rate in GA? is the "this place needs a better manager" vibe going to even RESONATE down there? Hung around 7 for a while, up to 8.1 in August, dipped a tiny bit to 7.9 in September. So about the same as Mississippi and TN, worse than most other states, but still way better than it was in 2010/2011. It's hard for me to get a sense of the rest of GA because I live in such a little backwater conservative TEA party county, I know most of my neighbors will vote Republican just because they think Obama is the antichrist, but two weeks ago I was in Savannah - much different vibe there. I'm going to be very interested to see how GA goes in this election. Used to be a pretty black and white issue (literally) with the big cities voting for the dems and the rural small town areas heavily republican, but the newer generation (like my 26 year old DS) are less religious and less conservative than their parents, and I suspect some of the solidly conservative counties may be less solid this time around. yeah, that is f(*king lousy. the business guy message might resonate. edit: in disbelief, i looked it up. GA has the worst UE rate in the nation: www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htmNunn will be very lucky to win that seat.
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 21, 2014 13:06:23 GMT -5
what's your current UE rate in GA? is the "this place needs a better manager" vibe going to even RESONATE down there? Hung around 7 for a while, up to 8.1 in August, dipped a tiny bit to 7.9 in September. So about the same as Mississippi and TN, worse than most other states, but still way better than it was in 2010/2011. It's hard for me to get a sense of the rest of GA because I live in such a little backwater conservative TEA party county, I know most of my neighbors will vote Republican just because they think Obama is the antichrist, but two weeks ago I was in Savannah - much different vibe there. I'm going to be very interested to see how GA goes in this election. Used to be a pretty black and white issue (literally) with the big cities voting for the dems and the rural small town areas heavily republican, but the newer generation (like my 26 year old DS) are less religious and less conservative than their parents, and I suspect some of the solidly conservative counties may be less solid this time around. Much the same in South Carolina, happy. The upstate is highly conservative. Not so the coast.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 22, 2014 6:28:49 GMT -5
Hung around 7 for a while, up to 8.1 in August, dipped a tiny bit to 7.9 in September. So about the same as Mississippi and TN, worse than most other states, but still way better than it was in 2010/2011. It's hard for me to get a sense of the rest of GA because I live in such a little backwater conservative TEA party county, I know most of my neighbors will vote Republican just because they think Obama is the antichrist, but two weeks ago I was in Savannah - much different vibe there. I'm going to be very interested to see how GA goes in this election. Used to be a pretty black and white issue (literally) with the big cities voting for the dems and the rural small town areas heavily republican, but the newer generation (like my 26 year old DS) are less religious and less conservative than their parents, and I suspect some of the solidly conservative counties may be less solid this time around. yeah, that is f(*king lousy. the business guy message might resonate. edit: in disbelief, i looked it up. GA has the worst UE rate in the nation: www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htmNunn will be very lucky to win that seat. That's why she's pushing the TV ads about Perdue outsourcing jobs. When that Pillowtex company closed they lost 7600 jobs in NC, the largest single job loss in the state, and she is making sure GA voters know that it happened when Perdue was head of Pillowtex - that he doesn't care about the middle class. That seems to be counteracting the impact of the relatively high UE rate - especially since our rate is close to that of several neighboring southern states, so we don't really stand out as the lone regional loser (which is Alabama).
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2014 13:37:35 GMT -5
Edit: this is an update to a previous post. the color in the tossup column indicates the direction the states are leaning. Ernst is leading but by a razor thin margin in IA. it seems like Brailey might catch her. Nunn is performing well in GA, but still not well enough to ultimately prevail. Cory keeps hanging in there in Colorado, but the polls are swinging wildly there, so it is hard to tell what is going on. all in all, the odds of the Democrats sweeping the four tossups continues to improve. also, there are some really weird swing states in this one, like South Dakota. the odds are still 9:1 that the GOP will win there, but they were 99:1 a month ago.
Republican solid : 47 Democrat solid: 47
Leaning Republican: AK, AR
Tossup: IA, KS, GA, CO
update: the GOP now only leads in half the tossup states. accordingly, i am adjusting their odds of taking over the Senate to 3:2 favorite. however, their lead is strengthening in Colorado. i will move it to "leaning GOP" if it stays where it is another week.
note: Georgia is going spectacularly well for Democrats. Nunn is leading or tied in all of the last (5) polls. this one is truly up for grabs. however, Nunn needs to add about 3% to secure victory, given that GA is a runoff state.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 23, 2014 14:07:54 GMT -5
I'm kinda hoping 50/50 so Biden has something to keep him busy the next two years. dj, this is not a serious posting
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 24, 2014 7:35:32 GMT -5
I'm kinda hoping 50/50 so Biden has something to keep him busy the next two years. dj, this is not a serious postingSo, what do you guys think the chances are that Biden will run for president?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 10:31:35 GMT -5
Ooh, ooh, Mistah Kottah!
Like everyone else, he's waiting on Hillary, imo.
If she runs- not at all likely.
If she doesn't- he's all in.
We could do worse than Joe Biden for President. But we'd have to put up with his mouth and his inartful penchant for verbal drama....
he's in 2nd right now. but he is also behind Hillary by over 50 points. they are not even surveying how he would do against the GOP anymore.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2014 13:02:02 GMT -5
I use the level of coverage from the liberal big 3 (ABC, CBS, and NBC) as to which way the chips will fall for control of the Senate. So far, looking good for the Republicans all around. Not to scientific, but neither is politics.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 13:11:21 GMT -5
I use the level of coverage from the liberal big 3 (ABC, CBS, and NBC) as to which way the chips will fall for control of the Senate. So far, looking good for the Republicans all around. Not to scientific, but neither is politics. beg to differ. the polls are absolutely scientific. scientific does not mean "without error". it means that stuff is analyzed and a probable range of outcomes is given. if i throw a paper airplane, there is a 95% chance it will fall within a certain range, and within a certain field of directions. that is highly determinable, and governed by probability. but you will note that this does not actually determine the OUTCOME of throwing the airplane, just the probability of it landing in a certain range. i find it kind of amusing that people would rather rely on their folk wisdom than the science. i am going with the science, which says that the GOP is a 3:2 favorite. so, as it turns out, your folk sense of things, and how they actually are, are synchronous in this case. edit: this would be a good time to add that the "solid GOP" and "solid Democratic" are within a 90% probability. it is certainly possible (ie, South Dakota), that something WEIRD might happen- but it is not probable. this methodology has served me very well in the past. i only missed calling Florida in 2012, for example. edit2: i am switching Colorado to "leans GOP" as of today.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 13:22:37 GMT -5
this is an amazing election to watch. if someone had told me a month ago that Colorado would be an easier win for the GOP than GA, i would have called them nuts.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2014 13:23:18 GMT -5
I use the level of coverage from the liberal big 3 (ABC, CBS, and NBC) as to which way the chips will fall for control of the Senate. So far, looking good for the Republicans all around. Not too scientific, but neither is politics. beg to differ. the polls are absolutely scientific. scientific does not mean "without error". it means that stuff is analyzed and a probable range of outcomes is given. if i throw a paper airplane, there is a 95% chance it will fall within a certain range, and within a certain field of directions. that is highly determinable, and governed by probability. but you will note that this does not actually determine the OUTCOME of throwing the airplane, just the probability of it landing in a certain range. i find it kind of amusing that people would rather rely on their folk wisdom than the science. i am going with the science, which says that the GOP is a 3:2 favorite. so, as it turns out, your folk sense of things, and how they actually are, are synchronous in this case. edit: this would be a good time to add that the "solid GOP" and "solid Democratic" are within a 90% probability. it is certainly possible (ie, South Dakota), that something WEIRD might happen- but it is not probable. this methodology has served me very well in the past. i only missed calling Florida in 2012, for example. edit2: i am switching Colorado to "leans GOP" as of today. I meant my way was not scientific and was referring to politics in general. Sample polling is usually accurate all the time. Except for that rare occasion when something unexpected happens, weather event, a mouth running afoul of accepted sentiment, etc.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 13:28:42 GMT -5
beg to differ. the polls are absolutely scientific. scientific does not mean "without error". it means that stuff is analyzed and a probable range of outcomes is given. if i throw a paper airplane, there is a 95% chance it will fall within a certain range, and within a certain field of directions. that is highly determinable, and governed by probability. but you will note that this does not actually determine the OUTCOME of throwing the airplane, just the probability of it landing in a certain range. i find it kind of amusing that people would rather rely on their folk wisdom than the science. i am going with the science, which says that the GOP is a 3:2 favorite. so, as it turns out, your folk sense of things, and how they actually are, are synchronous in this case. edit: this would be a good time to add that the "solid GOP" and "solid Democratic" are within a 90% probability. it is certainly possible (ie, South Dakota), that something WEIRD might happen- but it is not probable. this methodology has served me very well in the past. i only missed calling Florida in 2012, for example. edit2: i am switching Colorado to "leans GOP" as of today. I meant my way was not scientific we agree on that. and was referring to politics in general. Sample polling is usually accurate all the time. Except for that rare occasion when something unexpected happens, weather event, a mouth running afoul of accepted sentiment, etc. polling is accurate within probability. i just don't think people understand probability very well. now, it is true, that SOME polling is just plain lousy. take Rasmussen in the last election for example. their AVERAGE error was something like 3.8%, which was OUTSIDE OF THEIR 95% PROBABLE RANGE. this indicates a FLAWED METHODOLOGY. if they gave a shit (they don't) they would fix it. but since they are basically the in-house polling agency for FOX News, they no longer have to compete in the marketplace, and their reputation no longer means anything to them. if they have a poll that shows McConnell up by 23%, they will run it. and if it shows Grimes up by 3%, they will probably change their weighting until she is trailing. even flawed methodology is deployed in a scientific way, it just doesn't give good results.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2014 13:46:25 GMT -5
I meant my way was not scientific we agree on that. and was referring to politics in general. Sample polling is usually accurate all the time. Except for that rare occasion when something unexpected happens, weather event, a mouth running afoul of accepted sentiment, etc. polling is accurate within probability. i just don't think people understand probability very well. now, it is true, that SOME polling is just plain lousy. take Rasmussen in the last election for example. their AVERAGE error was something like 3.8%, which was OUTSIDE OF THEIR 95% PROBABLE RANGE. this indicates a FLAWED METHODOLOGY. if they gave a shit (they don't) they would fix it. but since they are basically the in-house polling agency for FOX News, they no longer have to compete in the marketplace, and their reputation no longer means anything to them. if they have a poll that shows McConnell up by 23%, they will run it. and if it shows Grimes up by 3%, they will probably change their weighting until she is trailing. even flawed methodology is deployed in a scientific way, it just doesn't give good results. Unless the results they want is more votes for that portrayed possible winner from a media company aimed square at the conservative viewer. Instead of actual % numbers results. Unfortunately, hearing what you want to hear keeps you tuned in longer, as long as the numbers are within a fudgeable (word?) distance.
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Oct 24, 2014 13:49:53 GMT -5
this is an amazing election to watch. if someone had told me a month ago that Colorado would be an easier win for the GOP than GA, i would have called them nuts. BOO
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 13:55:19 GMT -5
this is an amazing election to watch. if someone had told me a month ago that Colorado would be an easier win for the GOP than GA, i would have called them nuts. BOO i am just the messenger.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 13:59:38 GMT -5
polling is accurate within probability. i just don't think people understand probability very well. now, it is true, that SOME polling is just plain lousy. take Rasmussen in the last election for example. their AVERAGE error was something like 3.8%, which was OUTSIDE OF THEIR 95% PROBABLE RANGE. this indicates a FLAWED METHODOLOGY. if they gave a shit (they don't) they would fix it. but since they are basically the in-house polling agency for FOX News, they no longer have to compete in the marketplace, and their reputation no longer means anything to them. if they have a poll that shows McConnell up by 23%, they will run it. and if it shows Grimes up by 3%, they will probably change their weighting until she is trailing. even flawed methodology is deployed in a scientific way, it just doesn't give good results. Unless the results they want is more votes for that portrayed possible winner from a media company aimed square at the conservative viewer. i am not in a position to know what they WANT. the winky guy was a sarcastic remark.Instead of actual % numbers results. Unfortunately, hearing what you want to hear keeps you tuned in longer, as long as the numbers are within a fudgeable (word?) distance. i think 2012 was a very interesting year for polling. Rasmussen was using a flawed methodology that showed Romney winning, or at least very close. everybody else showed him trailing. then, two months before the election, Gallup did an amazing thing. they changed their weighting to reflect RASMUSSEN'S results. so, they ended up being way off, too. i can kind of excuse Rasmussen. he came from a conservative political background. it is hard to face reality when you are losing. so, you do stupid things. (candidly, the stupidity started in january of 2009, when they changed the way they reported presidential approval). but for GALLUP to do it was....hahaha....bizarre doesn't even begin to describe it. doesn't even come close. this year, the polls are showing that the GOP will take back the Senate. it is, however, very close.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 20:42:33 GMT -5
there are a few changes, but none are significant today: Republican solid : 47 Democrat solid: 45
Leaning Republican: AR, CO Leaning Democrat: NC, NH
Tossup: IA, KS, GA, AKalthough NC and NH now back in the "leaning" column, i don't think tit is going to stay there. the polls are getting closer, but still fairly consistently in Democrat favor. it looks like AK might be coming back into play. one poll shows Begich up 10%. i am POSITIVE that it is an outlier. i expect a close election. but because of that survey, and other that showed a tie, i am moving AK from Leaning Republican to Tossup. Georgia is now rated 50/50 by me. i honestly can't tell who is going to win that one. i favor the independent in KS. of the eight close races, the GOP leads in FOUR, and thereby still has the advantage, and it is still 3:2. the tipping point state is now Iowa, where Whackadoodle Ernst is showing a razor thin but consistent 1% lead over the lackluster Braley. i plan on updating this thread every time i see two candidates move in standing. note: next Tuesday i am going to move the bar down on probability for both "leaning" and "tossup". that will put the "solid" down to 70% probability, "leaning" to 60-70% probability of winning, and "tossup" to anything less than 60% (right now, it is 70-85 = leaning). if i were to do that today, ONLY GA would be rated a tossup, and all of the leanings would go to solid. and, as you probably guessed it, when either side has a "solid" 51, i will call this thing.
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Oct 24, 2014 21:54:08 GMT -5
Recently I saw the most vile attack ad I have ever seen in a campaign and am just disgusted. If this GOP ass wins it will be a sad day for our state. The GOP contender for governor of our state did an ad that basically blames the current governor of murder. He used a released convict who subsequently murdered a prison warden and one other person as a selling point for his campaign even though our governor had nothing to do with the release. The family of the slain warden wrote to him and demanded he stop using their loss and grief to win an election. He has removed the ad but it just makes me sick.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 22:18:52 GMT -5
Recently I saw the most vile attack ad I have ever seen in a campaign and am just disgusted. If this GOP ass wins it will be a sad day for our state. The GOP contender for governor of our state did an ad that basically blames the current governor of murder. He used a released convict who subsequently murdered a prison warden and one other person as a selling point for his campaign even though our governor had nothing to do with the release. The family of the slain warden wrote to him and demanded he stop using their loss and grief to win an election. He has removed the ad but it just makes me sick. what state, IW?
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Icelandic Woman
Senior Member
Joined: Feb 4, 2011 22:37:53 GMT -5
Posts: 4,832
Location: Colorado
Favorite Drink: Strawberry Lemonade
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Oct 24, 2014 22:24:27 GMT -5
Recently I saw the most vile attack ad I have ever seen in a campaign and am just disgusted. If this GOP ass wins it will be a sad day for our state. The GOP contender for governor of our state did an ad that basically blames the current governor of murder. He used a released convict who subsequently murdered a prison warden and one other person as a selling point for his campaign even though our governor had nothing to do with the release. The family of the slain warden wrote to him and demanded he stop using their loss and grief to win an election. He has removed the ad but it just makes me sick. what state, IW? LOL the one in my mini profile. CO
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djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2014 22:41:25 GMT -5
LOL the one in my mini profile. CO that font is so small i can't really see it. i want to say a few things about Colorado. the first one is that i never really thought Udall's seat was in danger. Cory is a political outsider, and when i say outside, he is WAY outside the mainstream in his views on a number of issues. there must be a very strong undercurrent of discontent with Udall, but i can't really understand why. Udall is a leader on the privacy rights issue. he is one of the top three guys in the senate for that, and i am a great admirer of his work. also, Obama is not terribly unpopular in CO. he won there in 2012, and his polling there reflects the national average, so the fact that Udall is a Democrat should not hurt him in that state. what is it that is sinking his ship, IW? Udall should be COASTING to a victory, not fighting for his life.
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