the Lose/Lose dynamic for the GOP in the Senate

[djAdvocate]

i just read this insightful analysis at electoral-vote.com:

The long-range prospects of the parties can have short-term consequences, though. Suppose the Republicans get 51 seats in the new Senate. The House will immediately pass a bill to repeal the [Affordable Care Act] and send it over to the Senate. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will loudly demand a straight up-or-down vote on it, which will put Mitch McConnell in a bind (we can safely assume McConnell will be majority leader in this scenario because if he loses his own race in 2014, it is very unlikely the Republicans will have a majority). If McConnell tries to bring a repeal bill to the floor, the minority Democrats will filibuster it. McConnell could abolish the filibuster once and for all, but he is smart enough to know that after the 2016 elections, the Republicans will probably be back in the minority. So his choices will be either (1) tell Cruz to shut up, let the Democrats filibuster, and take the heat, or (2) abolish the filibuster and give up the power to obstruct after returning to the minority starting in January 2017.

so, to summarize, if the GOP gets the Senate this year (it is truly a tossup), then the Democrats will filibuster everything.
if MM changes senate rules to kill filibuster, then the GOP will LIKELY be screwed in 2016, when the tables turn.

if the GOP does NOT get the Senate this year, then they will be even less powerful than if they do.

Lose/Lose.

of course, the optimist would say that the GOP could win in 2016, and that would be correct.  but the odds of that, given the playing field, are EXTREMELY low.

i love American politics.

[marvholly]

Is this what is ommonly referred to as 'what goes around comes around?' AKA as Karma.

[Ryan]

Jul 16, 2014 1:19:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i just read this insightful analysis at electoral-vote.com:

The long-range prospects of the parties can have short-term consequences, though. Suppose the Republicans get 51 seats in the new Senate. The House will immediately pass a bill to repeal the [Affordable Care Act] and send it over to the Senate. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will loudly demand a straight up-or-down vote on it, which will put Mitch McConnell in a bind (we can safely assume McConnell will be majority leader in this scenario because if he loses his own race in 2014, it is very unlikely the Republicans will have a majority). If McConnell tries to bring a repeal bill to the floor, the minority Democrats will filibuster it. McConnell could abolish the filibuster once and for all, but he is smart enough to know that after the 2016 elections, the Republicans will probably be back in the minority. So his choices will be either (1) tell Cruz to shut up, let the Democrats filibuster, and take the heat, or (2) abolish the filibuster and give up the power to obstruct after returning to the minority starting in January 2017.

so, to summarize, if the GOP gets the Senate this year (it is truly a tossup), then the Democrats will filibuster everything.
if MM changes senate rules to kill filibuster, then the GOP will LIKELY be screwed in 2016, when the tables turn.

if the GOP does NOT get the Senate this year, then they will be even less powerful than if they do.

Lose/Lose.

of course, the optimist would say that the GOP could win in 2016, and that would be correct.  but the odds of that, given the playing field, are EXTREMELY low.

i love American politics.

Wouldn't obama just veto the bill anyways?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 16, 2014 9:47:37 GMT -5 Ryan said:

Jul 16, 2014 1:19:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i just read this insightful analysis at electoral-vote.com:

The long-range prospects of the parties can have short-term consequences, though. Suppose the Republicans get 51 seats in the new Senate. The House will immediately pass a bill to repeal the [Affordable Care Act] and send it over to the Senate. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will loudly demand a straight up-or-down vote on it, which will put Mitch McConnell in a bind (we can safely assume McConnell will be majority leader in this scenario because if he loses his own race in 2014, it is very unlikely the Republicans will have a majority). If McConnell tries to bring a repeal bill to the floor, the minority Democrats will filibuster it. McConnell could abolish the filibuster once and for all, but he is smart enough to know that after the 2016 elections, the Republicans will probably be back in the minority. So his choices will be either (1) tell Cruz to shut up, let the Democrats filibuster, and take the heat, or (2) abolish the filibuster and give up the power to obstruct after returning to the minority starting in January 2017.

so, to summarize, if the GOP gets the Senate this year (it is truly a tossup), then the Democrats will filibuster everything.
if MM changes senate rules to kill filibuster, then the GOP will LIKELY be screwed in 2016, when the tables turn.

if the GOP does NOT get the Senate this year, then they will be even less powerful than if they do.

Lose/Lose.

of course, the optimist would say that the GOP could win in 2016, and that would be correct.  but the odds of that, given the playing field, are EXTREMELY low.

i love American politics.

Wouldn't obama just veto the bill anyways?

yes.  you can add that to the lose/lose list.  if you think about it, since off year elections generally favor Republicans, this is going to be a problem for them in EVERY presidential election.  we are going to have a very difficult time getting a Republican majority on day one of ANY presidency.