Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 12, 2014 12:35:56 GMT -5
Define "fatal". Will the US end up a smoking wreck with no human life to be found? Probably not. Will the quality of life for the vast majority of Americans, most especially the elderly, the poor, and the infirm see a drastic plunge in the near future? Absolutely. doubtful, imo. but i am curious as to why you think so.Will the plunge foment an unprecedented degree of civil unrest, leading to crime, militias, military action against civilians, and credible threats of secession, all leading to further deterioration? Absolutely. The extent is currently the great unknown. doubtful, again. but i am sure that your answer to my first doubt will answer my second.But I've said all of this before, and I've rattled off my litany of concerns many times. You strike me as a "seeing is believing" kind of guy. no, not really. i believe in bacteria, though i have never seen it. i believe in Newtonian motion of the planets, though it is very difficult to observe. i believe in the vacuum of space, tho i have never witnessed it. and i believe in predictive data. what is yours?You waited around to see what the GOP would do on the debt ceiling, and you saw. what does that have to do with anything? i predicted that they would battle this one out, then fold. they didn't even battle.We're waiting around to see whether California has a deficit for FY2014, and we'll see. wrong again. YOU are waiting. i was convinced it was likely it would not, based on DATA, or i would never have made the bet.We'll wait around to see if the projections above come to pass, and we'll see. Why debate it if we're deeply convicted of our current views? i am not debating a damned thing. i am asking you what basis you have for your views. this is generally the case, by the way. i figure that people are rational and they have their reasons for believing things. and, this is generally correct. unfortunately, they believe a lot of things, to paraphrase Reagan, that simply are not true. Cite one of the dozens of articles I've posted on the activity of the Federal Reserve or the state of US unfunded liabilities over the past 12 months. Prove to me that you care. The main differences would be the suddenness and speed of the collapse, and to a lesser extent, how the pain was distributed. The ultimate outcome is the same. The bed has been made, the can has been kicked, so to speak.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2014 12:48:58 GMT -5
i am not debating a damned thing. i am asking you what basis you have for your views. this is generally the case, by the way. i figure that people are rational and they have their reasons for believing things. and, this is generally correct. unfortunately, they believe a lot of things, to paraphrase Reagan, that simply are not true. Cite one of the dozens of articles I've posted on the activity of the Federal Reserve or the state of US unfunded liabilities i have addressed those probably a dozen times, but i will bottle it for you one more time. there are two possible outcomes that don't portend disaster. the first is that the liabilities will never be paid. that is the most likely, as there is no legal obligation for the treasury to perform beyond their funding. this is the point that everyone misses, which is disappointing in terms of logic, but makes perfect sense for those more interested in the drama of these outrageous numbers than what the inevitable outcomes are. the second, less likely possibility, is that funding will be brought in line with the "unfunded" liability, and bridge the gap. this is the outcome i expect with, say, SS.
edit: but thanks for clarifying. you think that we will actually try to make good on the "obligations", and that it will drive us into disaster. i don't. that all makes sense.
over the past 12 months. Prove to me that you care. my personal feelings are irrelevant to the debate, so i will pass.The main differences would be the suddenness and speed of the collapse, and to a lesser extent, how the pain was distributed. The ultimate outcome is the same. The bed has been made, the can has been kicked, so to speak. not really, no. our economic future is not nearly as predictable as sleep.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2014 12:52:35 GMT -5
... Will the quality of life for the vast majority of Americans, most especially the elderly, the poor, and the infirm see a drastic plunge in the near future? Absolutely. Will the plunge foment an unprecedented degree of civil unrest, leading to crime, militias, military action against civilians, and credible threats of secession, all leading to further deterioration? Absolutely. The extent is currently the great unknown. ... How will this be different than what would happen with serious budget cuts and/or large tax increases? those are two of a thousand things that could make a difference. what if the demographic projections that drive these estimates are wrong? what if the revenue projections are wrong? what if we simply underfund things like SS and MC and pensions (this WILL happen, by the way, since there is no way to overpay these obligations, by design)?
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 12, 2014 14:11:13 GMT -5
They're relevant to me, and hence so will I.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 12, 2014 14:39:48 GMT -5
I think the US will try to make good on them until the point where they can't (a la Detroit), at which point Medicaid and Medicare funding will be cut to 40 cents on the dollar, SS will be cut to 60 cents on the dollar, federal government subsidies to health exchanges will be cut by half, and social aid programs will be cut by at least 40%. A quarter of America's population will find themselves unable to afford basic medical care. An additional sixth will be unable to afford even food or shelter, even with government assistance.
The rest of the country will have to "deal with" these people, along with the five or six other financial tsunamis coming down the pike.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2014 14:56:03 GMT -5
I think the US will try to make good on them until the point where they can't (a la Detroit), i don't think they will even try. SS doesn't have any borrowing authority, and it is not likely to get it. if you question that, i will explain why.at which point Medicaid and Medicare funding will be cut to 40 cents on the dollar, SS will be cut to 60 cents on the dollar, you are presuming nothing will be done to fix it. i am not. we ran into this problem in the 80's, and Reagan fixed it by signing the largest tax increase in history. we will do that again, if that is what it takes, with SS. i am not nearly so confident with MC. i think they will cut benefits.federal government subsidies to health exchanges will be cut by half, and social aid programs will be cut by at least 40%. A quarter of America's population will find themselves unable to afford basic medical care. An additional sixth will be unable to afford even food or shelter, even with government assistance. The rest of the country will have to "deal with" these people, along with the five or six other financial tsunamis coming down the pike. on what basis do you conclude the last 3 sentences?
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 12, 2014 15:19:51 GMT -5
I think the US will try to make good on them until the point where they can't (a la Detroit), i don't think they will even try. SS doesn't have any borrowing authority, and it is not likely to get it. if you question that, i will explain why.at which point Medicaid and Medicare funding will be cut to 40 cents on the dollar, SS will be cut to 60 cents on the dollar, you are presuming nothing will be done to fix it. i am not. we ran into this problem in the 80's, and Reagan fixed it by signing the largest tax increase in history. we will do that again, if that is what it takes, with SS. i am not nearly so confident with MC. i think they will cut benefits.federal government subsidies to health exchanges will be cut by half, and social aid programs will be cut by at least 40%. A quarter of America's population will find themselves unable to afford basic medical care. An additional sixth will be unable to afford even food or shelter, even with government assistance. The rest of the country will have to "deal with" these people, along with the five or six other financial tsunamis coming down the pike. on what basis do you conclude the last 3 sentences? The last one falls into the category we both agreed to pass on. The first two are simply what's sustainable with modest tax increases, assuming the LFPR stabilizes. I needn't point out that the US is rapidly running out of a middle class to tax. Good luck with that. But don't mistake my pessimism for cynicism. If things somehow work out, I will be happy for you.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 12, 2014 15:55:35 GMT -5
Why so negative? It works for the rest of the world, more or less. The federal government has promised to pay $90 trillion over the next 16 years (up to 2030) to cover the costs of medical care for the poor and for retiring seniors. It currently has no means of honouring this promise. Restructuring your medical system (even presuming the restructuring is possible and effective) does not magically void this $90 trillion disparity. If the US Congress passes a bill tomorrow to raise an additional $5.6 trillion a year in tax revenues without any detrimental effects to the economy from 2014 to 2030, I'll promptly switch sides on the Medicare issue and join you on the "a few snafus" side of the fence.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2014 15:55:57 GMT -5
on what basis do you conclude the last 3 sentences? The last one falls into the category we both agreed to pass on. The first two are simply what's sustainable with modest tax increases, assuming the LFPR stabilizes. i am unfamiliar with any data that supports that. please provide me with a link. tyia.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2014 15:57:46 GMT -5
Why so negative? It works for the rest of the world, more or less. The federal government has promised to pay $90 trillion over the next 16 years (up to 2030) to cover the costs of medical care for the poor and for retiring seniors. It currently has no means of honouring this promise. it was not a promise, and it has no intention of funding it. that is why i am not terribly worried about the absurd $90T.Restructuring your medical system (even presuming the restructuring is possible and effective) does not magically void this $90 trillion disparity. If the US Congress passes a bill tomorrow to raise an additional $5.6 trillion a year in tax revenues without any detrimental effects to the economy from 2014 to 2030, I'll promptly switch sides on the Medicare issue and join you on the "a few snafus" side of the fence. MC payments will be cut. which means that those of us who want a $360,000 triple bypass surgery at age 83 probably won't get it in the future. i am having trouble seeing that as a bad thing.
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Post by jkapp on Feb 12, 2014 15:58:46 GMT -5
How dare the government continue to mortgage the country without any consideration for future generations. We do not own the earth. We borrow it from our grandchildren. I agree with you- but we cannot just screw around with what is already owed. If you were a spendthrift with umpteen thousands in credit card debt you don't just stop paying or pay late and expect no consequences. What you do if you are responsible is start spending less than you make and pay off debt. We can get there- the deficit is dropping FAST. Just don't elect another 'fiscal conservative' republican that turns a budget surplus into massive debt. Look at any chart- GOP administrations spend like drunken sailors. Raising the debt celiing doesn't pay off debts, though...it just adds to them.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 12, 2014 15:59:48 GMT -5
The last one falls into the category we both agreed to pass on. The first two are simply what's sustainable with modest tax increases, assuming the LFPR stabilizes. i am unfamiliar with any data that supports that. please provide me with a link. tyia. I posted some nice graphs late last year, which you either missed or ignored. I'll tag you the next time I find something. Good luck with that too.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2014 16:04:47 GMT -5
i am unfamiliar with any data that supports that. please provide me with a link. tyia. I posted some nice graphs late last year, which you either missed or ignored. I'll tag you the next time I find something. i don't ignore anything you post, Virgil. and thanks for the effort.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2014 16:06:52 GMT -5
i don't need any luck. but thanks for your kind wishes, i guess.
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Post by marvholly on Feb 13, 2014 4:48:06 GMT -5
I did NOT say it HAD to be in schools. I cannot see how volunteering at a food pantry, hospital, to clean up parks or roadways...... would be disruptive. Also, both my DDs are teachers. A REGULAR, committed volunteer in the grade school is a boon to the 2nd grade teacher and even the hs teacher can use help w/making copies, running paperwork to various offices, grading papers,………
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 13, 2014 7:55:16 GMT -5
Since "snafus" seems to cover everything up to and including people dying en masse, I suppose I can't dispute you. You and DJ should have at each other. He's utterly convinced the US government will take no extraordinary measures to fund medical commitments (which apparently aren't even commitments as far as he's concerned), while you seem convinced that the government will radically overhaul US healthcare (somehow resulting in plummeting costs) and come out the other side with the boomers, the poor, and the working class comfortably taken care of on the other side. It seems to me that aside from your unshakeable faith that everything will ultimately wind up OK, you two don't agree on a whole lot. Go at at and see if you can't debunk each other's theories.
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Post by Lizard King on Feb 13, 2014 8:22:50 GMT -5
Planetary motion isn't strictly Newtonian. Newtonian physics is an anthropic science - it works pretty well on the scales of human beings, but the more macro or micro you get, the more other rules take over.
Also:
www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/10/us-japan-economy-current-idUSBREA1900H20140210
Not everybody is as sanguine as you are about Japan's status as the world's most indebted developed nation. Neither is there the barest whiff of historicity about your linkage of WWII debt levels and the postwar economic boom. The boom happened because this was the only developed nation on Earth whose manufacturing base wasn't devastated by enemy action. There was a sharp break with the Keynesian policies of FDR in the aftermath of his death; a good case can be made that this break, and not the fiscal stimulus that arguably prolonged the Depression, led to the Long Boom.
ETA: Apologies, I missed an entire page of discussion. All the same, the refutation of Virgil's graphic evidence was wildly off point. If that graph doesn't matter, it can only be because (i) the trend can reasonably be expected to reverse (if I've understood correctly, that's a graph of federal student loan debt, so I'd be interested to see what mechanism of reversal might be proposed); or (ii) the trend of almost asymptotic acceleration of public debt doesn't matter (making it unique in the history of economic bubbles as being genuinely eternal and unbreakable). I can't see any other way to square that circle. I can guess in your particular case that you might say these are yet more debts that nobody will ever actually pay, and that's okay - as if an economy founded and sustained on credit can be indefinitely maintained in the face of institutional default. But I'm curious to see if there's some other rationale that doesn't resort to irrelevant comparisons.
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Post by Lizard King on Feb 13, 2014 9:36:16 GMT -5
We certainly should... whether we can and will depends on whether we want to remove some of the middlemen from the healthcare industry. Fourth-party healthcare is so batshit crazy that only fifth-party subsidy of fourth-party payer could have made it worse - lo and behold, that's what Obamacare accomplishes.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 13, 2014 11:49:20 GMT -5
Since "snafus" seems to cover everything up to and including people dying en masse, I suppose I can't dispute you. You and DJ should have at each other. He's utterly convinced the US government will take no extraordinary measures to fund medical commitments (which apparently aren't even commitments as far as he's concerned), you needn't couch that position by using the word apparently.while you seem convinced that the government will radically overhaul US healthcare (somehow resulting in plummeting costs) and come out the other side with the boomers, the poor, and the working class comfortably taken care of on the other side. It seems to me that aside from your unshakeable faith that everything will ultimately wind up OK, you two don't agree on a whole lot. Go at at and see if you can't debunk each other's theories. i am not seeing any conflict between our "theories". i have barely even mentioned the ACA. i have stated frankly that Medicare funding will likely be cut. if it is not, rates will have to go up hugely, which is certainly another possibility.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 13, 2014 11:50:50 GMT -5
I did NOT say it HAD to be in schools. I cannot see how volunteering at a food pantry, hospital, to clean up parks or roadways...... would be disruptive. Also, both my DDs are teachers. A REGULAR, committed volunteer in the grade school is a boon to the 2nd grade teacher and even the hs teacher can use help w/making copies, running paperwork to various offices, grading papers,……… You aren't truly taking about volunteers. You are talking about unpaid forced labor. ... I DO agree that people getting support of gov programs (food stamps, housing assistance…….) should be required to volunteer at schools, food pantries, hospitals, whatever and/or attend classes to increase their skills and possibly, eventually get a ‘real’ job. I would encourage you to take a good serious look at who the people are that are getting that assistance. Most fall into one of two categories:1) people with families working at a low skill job that pays little or people unable/unwilling to regularly commit to work. Both groups create a challenge to those attempting to use them as a unpaid labor force.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 13, 2014 11:50:58 GMT -5
Planetary motion isn't strictly Newtonian.
i am aware of that. i took physics, bro. i was waxing prosaic.
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Post by Lizard King on Feb 13, 2014 11:55:25 GMT -5
As usual, I wasn't trying to correct your understanding, just the understanding of some hypothetical reader who got the wrong idea.
And you and I don't view 'science' as a Baconian edifice in the same light, so that comes into play as well. To me, the expressed belief in hypotheses falsified by new evidence is very typical of what is practiced as 'science' - and, ironically, exactly the opposite of a genuinely scientific approach.
It's not that I think you look at it that way, it's that you expressing it the way you did gave me an opportunity to challenge the approach in general.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 13, 2014 12:13:02 GMT -5
As usual, I wasn't trying to correct your understanding, just the understanding of some hypothetical reader who got the wrong idea.
i appreciate that. but one can never be too sure.
And you and I don't view 'science' as a Baconian edifice in the same light, so that comes into play as well. To me, the expressed belief in hypotheses falsified by new evidence is very typical of what is practiced as 'science' - and, ironically, exactly the opposite of a genuinely scientific approach.
i think it is pretty amazing how well Newton's observations "work". they don't really explain anything, fundamentally, but neither does Relativity.
It's not that I think you look at it that way, it's that you expressing it the way you did gave me an opportunity to challenge the approach in general. well done, and well spoken, as usual.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 13, 2014 12:21:12 GMT -5
Planetary motion isn't strictly Newtonian.
i am aware of that. i took physics, bro. i was waxing prosaic. This is news to me. Gravity is entirely dominant at planetary scales, and the equations of motion there are the same ones used by Newton, Kepler et al. Relativity plays a small part, but so small that relativistic effects can be safely neglected for most calculations. So unless you're talking 13 or more digits of precision, Planetary motion is strictly Newtonian.
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Post by Lizard King on Feb 13, 2014 12:45:32 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 13, 2014 12:58:04 GMT -5
... So unless you're talking 13 or more digits of precision, Planetary motion is strictly Newtonian. You demand that level of precision from me. Why do planets get a pass?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 13, 2014 13:37:28 GMT -5
"...extra 43 seconds of arc per century..." As I said, if you're tracking motion to 13+ digits...
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Post by Lizard King on Feb 13, 2014 13:40:42 GMT -5
Except, as the article makes clear, 4 digits is all you need.
I'll grant that 4 and 13 have the same digital root, but from a standpoint of considering significant figures they're orders of magnitude apart. Not to mention the importance of that 43 seconds of arc in supporting Einstein's Theory of Relativity.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Feb 13, 2014 14:42:50 GMT -5
Except, as the article makes clear, 4 digits is all you need.
I'll grant that 4 and 13 have the same digital root, but from a standpoint of considering significant figures they're orders of magnitude apart. Not to mention the importance of that 43 seconds of arc in supporting Einstein's Theory of Relativity.
Let x be the arclength of Mercury's trajectory over a century in the sun's inertial frame. Let y be the displacement implied by 43 seconds of arc in Mercury's precession. We have that y/ x < 1e-12. If you try to land a rocket on Mercury without accounting for relativistic effects, you'll pay a sub-centimeter penalty. You need to care about that 0.000000000000503 to count Mr. Newton out of the driver's seat. As for the historical significance of Mercury's precession, I don't dispute that it was a milestone victory for GR.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 13, 2014 14:43:57 GMT -5
oh man. i can't tell you how much i enjoy being an audience to this rather than a participant.
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