Why Rush Limbaugh's audience is smaller than you think

[djAdvocate]

www.businessinsider.com/rush-limbaughs-audience-may-be-so-much-smaller-than-you-think-2012-3

summary: radio stations don't report audiences the way TV does.  they report WEEKLY.  in other words, if i tune in 5 times a week to Limbaugh's show (not uncommon for Limbaugh listeners), that equals FIVE viewers.  that is not how they do it on TV.  when you do the math the way TV does it, Limbaugh has between 2M and 4M listeners, not 15-20M.  note: this is from business insider, which is a moderate conservative source.

Advertising More: Madison Avenue Advertising Rush Limbaugh Radio
Rush Limbaugh's Audience May Be Much Smaller Than You Think
Jim Edwards

Mar. 13, 2012, 9:46 AM 30,225 96

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rush limbaugh

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As Rush Limbaugh's show enters a second week largely without advertisers -- except, ironically, for government-sponsored public service announcements -- it's worth asking how big a sacrifice it is for brands such as AOL and AllState to stay away from the show.

Limbaugh's show reaches 15 - 20 million people weekly across more than 600 radio stations on which he is syndicated, it is frequently reported.

Or does it?

We asked Arbitron, the radio ratings measurement service, to give us data for Limbaugh. This is what spokesperson Kim Myers said:

"Unfortunately, we don't have show specific data for network programs. The syndicators, Premiere Radio Networks, are the only ones that have the station clearances. Without that, we can't figure out the show ratings data."

"If you want to look at the number of different listeners tuning into Rush's show, you'll want to look at CUME [the cumulative number of people who listen to the show weekly].Again, the only place you can get that information is through Premiere Radio Networks which is based in Los Angeles."

To put that simply, the only reason we "know" that 15 million people listen to Limbaugh is because the company that gets paid for syndicating Limbaugh tells us so. A message asking PRN to explain their methodology was not immediately returned.

A couple of years ago, the Washington Post tried to get to the bottom of the mystery:

"... estimates of Limbaugh's nationwide (and overseas) audience are exercises in guesswork, slippery methodology and suspect data. Limbaugh himself has muddied the water with the claim that he reaches 20 million people a week, although there's no independent support for that figure."

"Premiere Radio Networks, Limbaugh's national syndicator, estimated last year that 3.59 million people were in Limbaugh's audience during an average quarter-hour of his program, based on a review of Arbitron's piecemeal data about hundreds of stations."

"Because people typically tune in and tune out of stations, however, that number doesn't reflect how many individuals cumulatively listened at some point during the week. What's more, Premiere's figure is based on data from the first three months of 2008, a virtual lifetime ago in the fast-moving radio business."

Basically, this "15-20 million" number has been floating around the media unaudited for four years. Even if you assume, generously, that the CUME number holds true, here is how that would break down in real life, according to Media Matters:

"...common industry shorthand to determine the actual size of a radio audience at any given moment is to cut the cume figure down by a factor of 10, which would mean Limbaugh's 20 million becomes 2 million. Or, if you take the more modest cume number of 14 million, which some inside the industry have used to judge the talker's audience, Limbaugh's rating becomes 1.4 million, which is roughly the same size audience that Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann get each night on cable TV."

So there is it: Absent better data, only 1.4 million people listen to Limbaugh at any one time.

Read more: www.businessinsider.com/rush-limbaughs-audience-may-be-so-much-smaller-than-you-think-2012-3#ixzz2m5YCQYvm

[djAdvocate]

Arbiton did a full paper on this and talk radio demographics.  it is fascinating.  if you are as nerdy about media as me, let me know and i will post a link.

[mmhmm]

That's really interesting, dj.  I, like many, have questioned the claimed figures as being pretty out there.  This makes a lot more sense!

[djAdvocate]

Nov 29, 2013 20:45:11 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

That's really interesting, dj.  I, like many, have questioned the claimed figures as being pretty out there.  This makes a lot more sense!

it does, doesn't it?  now mind you, he has been the most highly rated talk show host since Arbiton began tracking it in 1991.  that is not in question.  he is clearly the king of the heap.  but the heap is probably much much smaller than he has been saying for the last four years.

PS- Limbaugh's audience was larger BY HIS OWN COUNT in 2003.  so his audience has not grown since then, despite what some around here might tell you.

[mmhmm]

The other thing the figures don't indicate is the people who listen to Rush on and off, just to laugh at him, or to pick up talking points for the day's political argument with the Rush fan(s) at the office.  I know a couple of people who think Rush is the funniest thing they've ever heard and use him for the entertainment factor when stuck in traffic on the way to work.  My SIL, however, is a staunch Rush fan and listens to him every day.  That's a mixed audience, whether Rush likes it, or not.

[Tennesseer]

Twitter is all lit up about a possible nuclear explosion around Cocoa Beach, FL.

[Jaguar]

Nov 29, 2013 20:54:11 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Twitter is all lit up about a possible nuclear explosion around Cocoa Beach, FL.

Is that where Rush lives ?

[djAdvocate]

Nov 29, 2013 20:53:41 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

The other thing the figures don't indicate is the people who listen to Rush on and off, just to laugh at him

20% of his audience is "liberal".  they probably tune in to yell at him.

, or to pick up talking points for the day's political argument with the Rush fan(s) at the office. 

that is why i tune in.  i tune in to listen to his talking points and figure out how to debunk them.  it usually isn't very hard.

I know a couple of people who think Rush is the funniest thing they've ever heard and use him for the entertainment factor when stuck in traffic on the way to work.  My SIL, however, is a staunch Rush fan and listens to him every day.  That's a mixed audience, whether Rush likes it, or not.

indeed.  but Rush doesn't care.  audience means advertizing revenue, and that means a $50M contract.

[mmhmm]

Yep.  Rush is an entertainer and that's all he is.  It's all he's ever been.  That, he does well for those who enjoy that sort of thing.

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2013 20:54:11 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Twitter is all lit up about a possible nuclear explosion around Cocoa Beach, FL.

Hmph.
 Rumors grow in the telling. It's probably something small that got exaggerated, like a golf cart going up in flames... 

[Deleted]

 Gosh, I hope that golfcart was insured.

 With all the vandals and arsonists and such running around loose, it's a good idea to have comprehensive coverage.

[djAdvocate]

golf terrorism.

[grits]

As long as the money keeps coming into his bank account, Rush really doesn't care. It is the same with Howard Stern.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 29, 2013 23:55:30 GMT -5 grits said:

As long as the money keeps coming into his bank account, Rush really doesn't care. It is the same with Howard Stern.

tolly.

[Shooby]

Does that make you feel better DJ? Lol!

[Shooby]

Nov 29, 2013 20:58:20 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Yep.  Rush is an entertainer and that's all he is.  It's all he's ever been.  That, he does well for those who enjoy that sort of thing.

No. That isn't "all he has ever been". He is a great political commentator who launched the whole talk radio genre. But hey whatever helps to try to minimize his influence in your mind lol!

[luckyme]

Is there a particular point to this thread, or just looking for something to talk about.  ??

[sesfw]

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2013 8:51:11 GMT -5 Shooby said:

Does that make you feel better DJ? Lol!

i prefer when things make sense.  Rush's 15M never made sense to me.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2013 9:12:49 GMT -5 luckyme said:

Is there a particular point to this thread??

there were some claims made about Limbaugh on the "MSN lost half it's audience" thread, even though that thread had nothing to do with talk radio.  i thought it might be well to start another thread that dealt strictly with talk radio.  there are some related trends on the radio.  like FNC, their audience is more stable.  it might be demographics- but it could just be that conservatives are more devoted followers.  that would actually make sense given the outlooks and beliefs of many conservatives. 

you might not find (any of) that interesting- but i do.  i thought others might.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2013 9:21:22 GMT -5 sesfw said:

yeah, what?

[Tennesseer]

Nov 30, 2013 9:12:49 GMT -5 luckyme said:

Is there a particular point to this thread, or just looking for something to talk about.  ??

Is there a particular point to any number of threads started on P&M?  A few posters with over active ìmaginations (fantasy versus reality) create half truth/twisted logic threads. 

there is a valid reason why posters are limited on P&M to the number threads they are allowed to create in a 36 hour period.

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2013 12:23:34 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Nov 30, 2013 9:12:49 GMT -5 luckyme said:

Is there a particular point to this thread, or just looking for something to talk about.  ??

Is there a particular point to any number of threads started on P&M?  A few posters with over active ìmaginations (fantasy versus reality) create half truth/twisted logic threads. 

there is a valid reason why posters are limited on P&M to the number threads they are allowed to create in a 36 hour period.

  Some people cannot see a "point" in ANY thread in which the posters are NOT seeking the overthrow of the legal government headed by Obama.
 I think Rush's audience is getting smaller because audiences demand more than merely the same ol', same ol' cheap sensationalism, rhetorical gimmickry, and stale shtick. I'd venture to opine that all the constant bashing and sneering tends to be an annoyance to your better class of people.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

I'm all about accuracy, and I have no doubt that Rush wants to make his audience sound as big as possible to advertisers.

However, the 1.4 million listeners at "any one time" is an interesting way to attempt to contradict "20 million people each week"-- which is the claim. It doesn't actually contradict the claim, and may in fact support it. The only way to know for sure is to ascertain whether or not "at any one time" the same 1.4 million people? If, for example- and we don't know, so this hypothetical is just as good as any information provided by that article- 1.4 million unique listeners tune in during one of the three hours during one of the five broadcast days, that's 21 million listeners- or exactly what Rush claims. If you take the 2 million- or 4 million estimate at any one time number, you could conclude Rush understates his audience- and it's never a bad idea to under-promise, and over-deliver in business.

By the way- the statement that Rush's show ever had a single day- let alone a 'second week' (in spring of 2012?)- 'largely without any sponsors' is just flat out false. Never happened. I went over this in excruciating detail at the time, but when you heard during what I affectionately refer to as "slut week" about Limbaugh 'losing advertisers' you are talking about companies and/or their big ad buyers who buy large blocks of time on and directly through local stations who simply requested not to be run during Rush's show until the heat died down. The ads still ran during other shows- and Cumulus didn't lose much money at all. And of course all the hubbub over the possibility of Cumulus dumping Rush was also wishful thinking- as you know, Rush was easily renewed, and his show is still adding new stations.

These were never "Rush Limbaugh Show" advertisers. A handful of direct Rush Limbaugh Show advertisers did drop their sponsorship, and I've been following them with great interest- it hasn't gone well for them. Of note is ProFlowers which surrendered their coveted spot on the show to 1-800-Flowers which is beating the brakes off ProFlowers- in fact, ProFlowers parent company which also held Shari's Berry's , Personal Creations, and others- Provide Commerce, Inc. tanked and was purchased by Liberty Interactive Corp- majority voting stock holder, John C. Malone. Mr. Malone's politics are decidedly GOP-- you can see his contributions at CampaignMoney.com

As a long time listener to the show, I've heard a lot- and I mean a LOT of anti-Rush hype, predictions of Rush's demise, and this 2012 piece certainly isn't the first attempt at down-playing the size of the Rush Limbaugh Show's audience, or to just flat out misrepresent the facts concerning who is and is not sponsoring the show.

The best evidence it's wrong comes from the show itself- it's still on, and Rush is still very handsomely rewarded for hosting the show.

The fact is, if you like the Rush Limbaugh Show, you're gonna get to keep it. Period. And if you like your local Rush station, you're gonna get to keep it, period.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2013 19:41:30 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I'm all about accuracy, and I have no doubt that Rush wants to make his audience sound as big as possible to advertisers.

However, the 1.4 million listeners at "any one time" is an interesting way to attempt to contradict "20 million people each week"

the way TV does it is "unique viewers".  that is the way radio should do it, too.  if they did it that way, there would be WAY LESS than 20M unique listeners.  of course, they will never do that.  but that's ok.  just keep in mind that 20M in Radio land is like...200M in TV land. 

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2013 19:41:30 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

As a long time listener to the show, I've heard a lot- and I mean a LOT of anti-Rush hype, predictions of Rush's demise, and this 2012 piece certainly isn't the first attempt at down-playing the size of the Rush Limbaugh Show's audience, or to just flat out misrepresent the facts concerning who is and is not sponsoring the show. 

as a longer time listener to his show than you, i have heard a lot of pro-Rush hype.  i am just trying to get an accurate picture of what his audience is.

since there have never been audited results for this show, there is no reason to believe the 15-20M figure. 

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Nov 29, 2013 20:38:01 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Arbiton did a full paper on this and talk radio demographics.  it is fascinating.  if you are as nerdy about media as me, let me know and i will post a link.

Yeah- I've looked at Arbitron data before:  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-listened-to_radio_programs

Talkers Magazine, a trade publication focusing on talk radio, compiles a list of the most-listened-to commercial long-form talk shows in the United States, based primarily on Arbitron data and estimated to the nearest 250,000 listeners. In addition to Talkers' independent analyses, radio companies of all formats include estimates of audience in news releases. The nature of news releases allows radio companies to inflate their listener totals by obscuring the difference between listeners at any given time, cumulative listenership over a time frame, and potential audience.

The total listenership for terrestrial radio in the year 2005 was 230 million.[2] Sirius XM Radio has a base of 18.5 million subscribers as of 2009.[3] American Top 40 attracts over 20 million listeners per week.[4] Rush Limbaugh's show has been the number one commercial talk show since at least 1991 when record keeping began.[1][5] NPR's Morning Edition and All Things Considered are the two most popular news programs.[6]

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2013 19:54:56 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Nov 29, 2013 20:38:01 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Arbiton did a full paper on this and talk radio demographics.  it is fascinating.  if you are as nerdy about media as me, let me know and i will post a link.

Yeah- I've looked at Arbitron data before:  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-listened-to_radio_programs

Talkers Magazine, a trade publication focusing on talk radio, compiles a list of the most-listened-to commercial long-form talk shows in the United States, based primarily on Arbitron data and estimated to the nearest 250,000 listeners. In addition to Talkers' independent analyses, radio companies of all formats include estimates of audience in news releases. The nature of news releases allows radio companies to inflate their listener totals by obscuring the difference between listeners at any given time, cumulative listenership over a time frame, and potential audience.

The total listenership for terrestrial radio in the year 2005 was 230 million.[2] Sirius XM Radio has a base of 18.5 million subscribers as of 2009.[3] American Top 40 attracts over 20 million listeners per week.[4] Rush Limbaugh's show has been the number one commercial talk show since at least 1991 when record keeping began.[1][5] NPR's Morning Edition and All Things Considered are the two most popular news programs.[6]

i already said it was the #1 rated talk radio show since 1991, Paul (see post #3). 

edit2: the paper i was referring to was not the weekly data.  they did a paper specifically on talk radio.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Nov 30, 2013 19:51:26 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Nov 30, 2013 19:41:30 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

As a long time listener to the show, I've heard a lot- and I mean a LOT of anti-Rush hype, predictions of Rush's demise, and this 2012 piece certainly isn't the first attempt at down-playing the size of the Rush Limbaugh Show's audience, or to just flat out misrepresent the facts concerning who is and is not sponsoring the show. 

as a longer time listener to his show than you, i have heard a lot of pro-Rush hype.  i am just trying to get an accurate picture of what his audience is.

since there have never been audited results for this show, there is no reason to believe the 15-20M figure. 

The claim is that the show reaches 20 million people per week- and that, as I've pointed out, is an easily believable figure.

I can't get into precise detail- but as I think you know- I still do a good bit of marketing consulting, and copy-writing.  We've run numerous test ads on Rush's show that suggest that in a single spot we hit between 3.5 and 4.5 million listeners.  If you consider these are people listening to the ad, you can actually pad the numbers a bit.  

We decided to run the test in the wake of "slut week" - a week that I suspected listenership exploded due to the publicity.  More recent tests suggest between 1.8 and 2.1 million listeners heard our ads.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 30, 2013 19:59:41 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Nov 30, 2013 19:51:26 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

as a longer time listener to his show than you, i have heard a lot of pro-Rush hype.  i am just trying to get an accurate picture of what his audience is.

since there have never been audited results for this show, there is no reason to believe the 15-20M figure. 

The claim is that the show reaches 20 million people per week- and that, as I've pointed out, is an easily believable figure.

sure it is.  because people listen to the show regularly, they count as multiple people.  that is not the same as unique listeners, tho.

I can't get into precise detail- but as I think you know- I still do a good bit of marketing consulting, and copy-writing.  We've run numerous test ads on Rush's show that suggest that in a single spot we hit between 3.5 and 4.5 million listeners.  If you consider these are people listening to the ad, you can actually pad the numbers a bit. 

i can go along with that.  i think the data supports 2-4M unique listeners.

We decided to run the test in the wake of "slut week" - a week that I suspected listenership exploded due to the publicity.  More recent tests suggest between 1.8 and 2.1 million listeners heard our ads.

"our"?  don't tell me....REALLY?