Virginia Statewide Races Next Week!

[djAdvocate]

will it be a clean sweep for Democrats?
if so, what will the new Democratic leadership do with their power?

for those wondering: why do i care, and why should anyone care:

1) Virginia's demographics parallel the rest of the US
2) the TP has done well in Virginia and has three candidates running against 3 mainstream Democrats
3) there has been a bunch of really mad right wing nonsense in terms of voting and women's rights in VA that will be sorely tested if Dems win.

i put the odds on Gov and Lt. Gov at about 90% Dem right now (9:1), and 60% Dem on the AJ spot (3:2).

if that comes to pass, should the TP be worried?
should the GOP?

[djAdvocate]

the answer to the first question is still unknown at this hour.  the big seats went to Democrats, but the AG office is too lose to call.
the TP did better than expected in this race, but again, it is difficult to say why at this juncture.
the Democrat in the governor race was a weak candidate, but Cooch was weaker.

medicaid expansion will now happen in VA.

[djAdvocate]

the AG spot is going to recount.  less than 100 votes separate the candidates.

[billisonboard]

Obenshain ran a careful, relatively gaffe-free campaign to retain an office the GOP has held since 1994. His campaign glossed over divisive social issues and presented him as a less-polarizing figure than Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli II or E.W. Jackson, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor. www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/obenshain-appears-headed-for-razor-thin-victory-in-virginia-attorney-generals-race/2013/11/05/08d13182-4255-11e3-a624-41d661b0bb78_story.html

Gee, and he stands the chance of winning.

[Lizard King]

the political center

Terry McAuliffe?

The political center?

Interesting progressive take here:

crooksandliars.com/richard-rj-eskow/dont-believe-spin-voters-want

[djAdvocate]

Nov 7, 2013 13:04:15 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

the political center

Terry McAuliffe?

The political center?

Interesting progressive take here:

crooksandliars.com/richard-rj-eskow/dont-believe-spin-voters-want

McAuliffe is an absolute SCOURGE for conservatives.  defeating him SHOULD have been a high priority for the GOP.

but apparently they have their own (internal) battles to fight.

[Lizard King]

defeating him SHOULD have been a high priority for the GOP.

Yes, from a short-term perspective. In the scheme of things, the time to have the Governor and the Legislature in GOP hands was 2010, so we could control redistricting. We did pretty well in 2010. Similarly, we still dominate at state level; the focus needs to be on the Senate, and then the White House.

I think McAuliffe was there for the taking, and the GOP made several tactical mistakes: but Cuccinelli won a statewide election with 58% of the vote in 2009, and Virginia hasn't changed that much since.

If Obenshain loses the recount, we have overall control of the legislature. If he wins, we have the AG slot and denied Dems a clean sweep at the top of the ticket.

Politics is chess, not archery.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 7, 2013 14:57:51 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

defeating him SHOULD have been a high priority for the GOP.

Yes, from a short-term perspective. In the scheme of things, the time to have the Governor and the Legislature in GOP hands was 2010, so we could control redistricting. We did pretty well in 2010. Similarly, we still dominate at state level; the focus needs to be on the Senate, and then the White House.

I think McAuliffe was there for the taking, and the GOP made several tactical mistakes: but Cuccinelli won a statewide election with 58% of the vote in 2009, and Virginia hasn't changed that much since.

If Obenshain loses the recount, we have overall control of the legislature. If he wins, we have the AG slot and denied Dems a clean sweep at the top of the ticket.

Politics is chess, not archery.

indeed- which is why trends and general conditions tend to interest me more than specific races.

ie- i would expect the GOP to do well in a 2013 election, given who is president.  they did pretty well.  just not as well as they should have.

[Lizard King]

i would expect the GOP to do well in a 2013 election, given who is president.

You wouldn't expect them to be somewhat demoralized, given who is president?

Somewhat consumed with soul-searching, given who is president?

Also:

You wouldn't expect a $15 million spending gap to influence the outcome? Ceteris paribus, if one candidate at a state-level election outspends by that much to eke out a win by 50,000 votes in two million or more, is that a mandate or is that a Pyrrhic victory?

[djAdvocate]

Nov 7, 2013 15:38:30 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

i would expect the GOP to do well in a 2013 election, given who is president.

You wouldn't expect them to be somewhat demoralized, given who is president?

no.  Virginia has not voted in a governor in the same party as a sitting president since 1977.  i think.  feel free to check me on that.

[Lizard King]

Virginia has not voted in a governor in the same party as a sitting president since 1977.

I presume you find uncontroversial the hypothesis that Virginia should not simply anoint the Republican candidate without bothering with elections on this basis?

Beyond the geographical location, is any relevant factor common to all those elections? This is the first sitting President to have swelled the Federal workforce by a million people, many of them resident in northern Virginia. I find that more salient than his affiliation, but I'm a pragmatist.

[djAdvocate]

there will very likely be a recount, but as of this morning, the Democrats swept Virginia:

swampland.time.com/2013/11/13/with-106-vote-attorney-general-victory-virginia-democrats-sweep-state/

[djAdvocate]

Nov 7, 2013 16:01:28 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

Virginia has not voted in a governor in the same party as a sitting president since 1977.

I presume you find uncontroversial the hypothesis that Virginia should not simply anoint the Republican candidate without bothering with elections on this basis?

Beyond the geographical location, is any relevant factor common to all those elections? This is the first sitting President to have swelled the Federal workforce by a million people, many of them resident in northern Virginia. I find that more salient than his affiliation, but I'm a pragmatist.

huh?  i am not following you, here.  (non military) federal employees have grown by less than 100k under Obama, phoenix.  the only president since WW2 to swell federal workers by 1M was Kennedy.

www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/data-analysis-documentation/federal-employment-reports/historical-tables/total-government-employment-since-1962/

total government employment under Obama has FALLEN 1M.

[Lizard King]

You're quite right, dj. The Federal workforce hasn't grown by a million under Obama - I don't know where my head was at with that wildly inaccurate rhetorical flourish. According to factcheck.org, it has grown by 5% under Obama, and according to FedScope and the BLS that's from a baseline of around 1.9 million Federal workers, excluding most judicial, legislative, and postal jobs. 5% of 1.9 million is, yes, around 95,000. I put it to you that many of those 95,000 might reside in Northern Virginia, and that this concentration of households owing their cushy living directly to the Federal government helped the Democrat in the race.

My numbers were certainly off, but in the context of a race where 30,000 votes out of 2 million were decisive, the argument is still valid.

[Lizard King]

Nov 13, 2013 15:38:34 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

there will very likely be a recount, but as of this morning, the Democrats swept Virginia:

swampland.time.com/2013/11/13/with-106-vote-attorney-general-victory-virginia-democrats-sweep-state/

Yay! A 20 - 18 majority in the Senate for Republicans!

[djAdvocate]

Nov 13, 2013 16:24:56 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

Nov 13, 2013 15:38:34 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

there will very likely be a recount, but as of this morning, the Democrats swept Virginia:

swampland.time.com/2013/11/13/with-106-vote-attorney-general-victory-virginia-democrats-sweep-state/

Yay! A 20 - 18 majority in the Senate for Republicans!

what does it take to override?

[djAdvocate]

Nov 13, 2013 16:23:11 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

You're quite right, dj. The Federal workforce hasn't grown by a million under Obama - I don't know where my head was at with that wildly inaccurate rhetorical flourish. According to factcheck.org, it has grown by 5% under Obama, and according to FedScope and the BLS that's from a baseline of around 1.9 million Federal workers, excluding most judicial, legislative, and postal jobs. 5% of 1.9 million is, yes, around 95,000. I put it to you that many of those 95,000 might reside in Northern Virginia, and that this concentration of households owing their cushy living directly to the Federal government helped the Democrat in the race.

My numbers were certainly off, but in the context of a race where 30,000 votes out of 2 million were decisive, the argument is still valid.

then you should be utterly outraged by the fact that Ken Cuccinelli removed 40,000 from the voter rolls just prior to the election without notifying them or giving them the opportunity to contest the decision, and against the will of local precincts.

[Lizard King]

And yet turnout was up two points from 2009. When moderate Bob McDonnell won by 18 clear points. If Terry McAuliffe survives his term, I doubt he'll have much pull to anoint a successor, even though the McDonnell vote was obviously an outlier. A number of factors combined to hand Cuccinelli his hat; he'd have been a bad governor, but McAuliffe isn't going to be a good one.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 13, 2013 21:21:51 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

And yet turnout was up two points from 2009.

2009 was an off-off year election, as well.  but this year there was way more money poured into VA, and there was a lot of interest in the race.

When moderate Bob McDonnell won by 18 clear points. If Terry McAuliffe survives his term, I doubt he'll have much pull to anoint a successor, even though the McDonnell vote was obviously an outlier.

incumbents win in VA, as a general rule. 

A number of factors combined to hand Cuccinelli his hat; he'd have been a bad governor, but McAuliffe isn't going to be a good one.

agreed.  i have already pointed out that he was a weak candidate and should have lost several times on this thread.

[Lizard King]

incumbents win in VA, as a general rule.

They don't, as a general rule, look like Terry McAuliffe, do they?

They're not, as a general rule, elected to office on partisan platforms.

They're not, as a general rule, elected to office when nearly three-fifths of voters express ethics concerns over their candidacy.

Following the general rule, Cuccinelli beats McAuliffe. Thus the general rule.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 15, 2013 13:24:23 GMT -5 Lizard King said:

incumbents win in VA, as a general rule.

They don't, as a general rule, look like Terry McAuliffe, do they?

They're not, as a general rule, elected to office on partisan platforms.

They're not, as a general rule, elected to office when nearly three-fifths of voters express ethics concerns over their candidacy.

Following the general rule, Cuccinelli beats McAuliffe. Thus the general rule.

i can't really answer any of those questions, phoenix.  i am only a casual observer of VA politics.

[Lizard King]

He's an outlier. A slightly less bad fit for a state where Republicans have essentially a two-thirds majority in the House of Delegates, and Bob McDonnell was favored 52-41 on election night by the voters who ushered in the McAuliffe era.

[djAdvocate]

Obenshein finally bowed out.  Democrats swept VA:

www.nytimes.com/2013/12/19/us/republican-expected-to-drop-out-of-virginia-race.html?_r=0

[happyhoix]

Dec 18, 2013 23:39:07 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Obenshein finally bowed out.  Democrats swept VA:

www.nytimes.com/2013/12/19/us/republican-expected-to-drop-out-of-virginia-race.html?_r=0

What's interesting about this to me, as someone living in the South (although not a Southerner) is the gradual shifting from solidly all red to somewhat purple and even blue some of the Southern states have gone.

www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/03/15/As-Demographics-Shift-Democrats-Look-to-Win-the-South

The region has be reliably Republican since the 80's. Now, states like Texas, Florida and Georgia that have strong blue urban populations and a lot of hispanic voters may be the next states to turn blue behind Virginia.

If conservative republicans lose the South, they've lost their last big stronghold.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 19, 2013 12:29:41 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Dec 18, 2013 23:39:07 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Obenshein finally bowed out.  Democrats swept VA:

www.nytimes.com/2013/12/19/us/republican-expected-to-drop-out-of-virginia-race.html?_r=0

What's interesting about this to me, as someone living in the South (although not a Southerner) is the gradual shifting from solidly all red to somewhat purple and even blue some of the Southern states have gone.

www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/03/15/As-Demographics-Shift-Democrats-Look-to-Win-the-South

The region has be reliably Republican since the 80's. Now, states like Texas, Florida and Georgia that have strong blue urban populations and a lot of hispanic voters may be the next states to turn blue behind Virginia.

If conservative republicans lose the South, they've lost their last big stronghold.

you know what i think is funnier?  that the GOP seems to think that since Hispanics are more religious than other white people, that they are more conservative.  in fact, the opposite is true.  they are more liberal than other white people on a whole slew of issues.

the main demographic for the GOP is aging and white.  if they don't expand their appeal, they are going to lose a LOT of elections.

[happyhoix]

the main demographic for the GOP is aging and white. if they don't expand their appeal, they are going to lose a LOT of elections.

IT's become the angry white man party, and the problem is, only about 33% of the population are white men, and that number continues to shrink.

And not all those white guys are angry, at least not at the things the Republican conservatives are angry about.

Time for rebranding.