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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 0:14:35 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 0:16:03 GMT -5
I've got a couple of friends who are staunch conservatives. When the TEA party first started to gain traction, they were very excited about it and I know they participated in local and regional TEA party activities. According to one of them, she and her husband have been quite disenchanted with the movement for some time now, and are pretty embarrassed at recent events. I don't know how the other friend is taking it all, as he and his wife are abroad. Most folks around here are conservatives, and what I hear is not pro-TEA party. Most just don't like what it's become. It started out with a good, solid stance. If it had stayed with that stance, it could have drawn the support of a lot of folks that now only want to be as far from it as possible. It's a shame, really. Another really good idea usurped by those who would corrupt it for their own purposes. they got turfed out of existence by groups like the Freedom Coalition and Heritage. it was predictable. such groups are always looking for blunt objects to carry the water for them.
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 20, 2013 0:20:17 GMT -5
Exactly, dj. That's what my friends have said. What the TEA party has become is not what they were drawn to originally, and certainly not that with which they wish to be associated now. They're not interested in anything that geared to self-interest. Both couples have a social conscience and a realization it's not all about them. They're not poor, by any stretch of the imagination. They're not on the "dole". They're working professionals who are involved in the community and who care about their country AND its people.
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Post by cereb on Oct 20, 2013 0:28:14 GMT -5
"This isn't a one battle deal. " Of course it isn't. Crazy people do the same shit over and over again and are completely surprised each time they don't achieve a different result. That's why they are crazy. Duh.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 0:35:12 GMT -5
Exactly, dj. That's what my friends have said. What the TEA party has become is not what they were drawn to originally, and certainly not that with which they wish to be associated now. They're not interested in anything that geared to self-interest. Both couples have a social conscience and a realization it's not all about them. They're not poor, by any stretch of the imagination. They're not on the "dole". They're working professionals who are involved in the community and who care about their country AND its people. yeah, just to be clear about what i said: over half of the TP (according to surveys i have read) are retired (either civilian or military). that is not really on the dole from my perspective, and certainly not from theirs: they EARNED that money (and i am not arguing against that, actually). but it really seems funny to me that they don't see their medicare, their tricare, and their SS as part of the very thing that they spend half their waking hours protesting. summary: there is a disconnect between the TP and what they CLAIM to oppose.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 0:36:44 GMT -5
"This isn't a one battle deal. " Of course it isn't. Crazy people do the same shit over and over again and are completely surprised each time they don't achieve a different result. That's why they are crazy. Duh. this is the problem with irrational behavior, right? it is not easy to stop. especially if you are in denial about how bad it is for the country.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 20, 2013 8:40:31 GMT -5
... In speaking with Tea Party base members, both of us doubt that a large percentage of them are actually committed to trimming the deficit. The message when chatting is often pretty clearly "cut everything except what affects me and my friends." They're nice people usually. They don't want their friends to suffer. It's the ambiguous "others" who can bite it and take program cuts. DF's dad nearly flipped out at the idea that SS and Medicare might be trimmed. He's relying on both entirely in old age, since he's always been very low income. I absolutely agree, and the problem isn't just limited to the Tea Party. However, the Tea Party is the only movement in the US federally where I've seen any conviction whatsoever in serious cuts. It's a travesty that those convictions are so tightly proscribed. The FED was about to taper bond buying, but because the TP were the ones that essentially shut down the govt, the FRB had no choice but to stay its course. Just like they were "just about" to taper buying 3 months ago, and 6 months ago, and 9 months ago, and 12 months ago, and... But you can rest soundly, Ham. It may seem like Ms. Yellen confirmed their QE-to-infinity strategy, but I'll bet they're just about to taper buying 3 months from now. ...and 6 months from now. ...and 9 months from now. To prove China is losing faith in the US, using the example of China selling short term debt at super low interest rates, to buy long term investments in the US that will only appreciate if the US continues to prospers is, in fact, an oxymoron. China is doing the only thing they can to protect the declining value of their investment: keeping Uncle Sam happy by buying his bonds in piecemeal spurts with one hand, and unloading their debt to buy up actual, productive US assets with the other. And gold, of course. Something like 2,000 metric tonnes of it over the past two years. Sure beats a supply of toilet paper growing at $85 billion a month. The 85 billion in bonds isn't for fun or because "debt inc." is prospering from all this debt. It's so that US bond auctions are oversubscribed, keeping interest low, which has helped the housing market recover. Most of the interest on the 45 billion a month is less than 3%, and of course Virg, you neglect to bring up the fact that since the crisis the FRB has returned billions, hundreds of billions, in interest to the UST. I don't give a toot how much interest they've returned. All it means is they have to e-print up slightly less money in the next go-round. They're piling into the auctions and monetizing the debt because nobody will buy it at reasonable interest rates. And why would they when the bonds are practically guaranteed to lose value in real terms? Even Zimbabwe got to be experts at buying their own debt. I'm not saying that the Fed buying debt is a bad course of action. It's the underlying need to buy a gigaton of debt that's the problem. And finally, not all of the $85 billion is going directly into bond purchases. A lot of that phantom money is being dumped directly into US equities--stocks, etc.--to inflate their values. And that's where men like Bloomberg can make a killing. Even Dallas FED prez Fisher, who is a hawk, has said that thanks to the US politicians creating economic uncertainty in the US economy, it's hard to argue for tapering. ...and if it hadn't been that, it would be that global warming and fur-lined mittens makes it hard to taper. Sigh. Oh well. I guess we'll have to keep doing it. Forever. Aww shucks.
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 20, 2013 11:38:18 GMT -5
I know you don't care about how much has been returned to the UST Virg, it's called reality and I know how much you hate that.
The whole point of you OP is that "debt inc" hates the tea party but loves the assest purchases. Well, political uncerainty is the biggest reason that the economy isn't coming back strong yet and this last round was brought on by the TP. Again, by your OP this should make "debt inc" LOVE the TP. But that would be the whole reality thing that you hate again.
You have been trying to sell the China is exiting UST notes speil for three years now, you have been wrong the whole time and now your trying the angle of swapping for US hard assest. Do you realize that real estate needs long term confidence in the USas a whole?
Keeping pooping in one hand and wishing in the other and see what gets filled up first.
Look at the auctions on the 3% notes about a month ago and you will see how wrong you are about how much demand there will be for higher intrest rate US bonds.
The Fed isn't buying stocks either, that is just a load of garbage and you know it. By keeping intrest rates low they have moved money into riskier assest, that is how they have indirectly inflated stock prices.
So the last thing is the lenght of QE, again thanks to political uncertainty going back to 2011 and the last debt ceiling argument QE has continued. So again, why not focus on the real problem? Which is, without all this political uncertainty the economy would be doing better. Or is that too much reality for you, Virg?
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 20, 2013 11:47:59 GMT -5
Oh one more thing. In your OP Virg you claim that all these big wigs love the asset purchases because they collect so much interest off the US taxpayer. You think these big guys like making less than 3% on their money? If the FED wasnt buying the debt the big guys would at much higher rates!! For the amount that you talk about economics...
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 20, 2013 13:59:09 GMT -5
No, the complete absence of an actual recovery is why the economy "isn't coming back strong".
Where? What fantasy land Virgil are you talking about? The last time I made any comment at all on Chinese purchases of US bonds was in 2010, and I commented that they'd been dumping bonds for several months--which was true.
Since then, what? Where? Show me this "speil" (sic). I'd love to see it. The "search" button is right there.
A China-owned US? Sure. Proles will need somewhere to live, right?
I don't even know where to begin on this. Start by taking the FOMC's own statements on their permanent open market operations. Take a look at market reactions to Fed announcements. Look at near-perfect correlations between Fed activity and market activity. Look at record lows in volatility indices. There is not one solitary piece of data out there that doesn't scream "Fed is the market". If you want to live in denial of that fact and call it "reality", be my guest. But beam me up Scotty.
I don't even know where you get your "reality" from. One-shot articles here and there? Paul Krugman's blog?
All that peace and democracy blossoming in the Middle East. And Egypt too. All that "student-strengthened populism".
Virgil is "spieling" about China again. I can't actually find any posts where he does, but my crystal ball told me so.
The recovery is stalled because... um... uncertainty. Yes, that will work! All this political uncertainty... that started mid-September. It must be responsible for everything. True, the Fed's latest "we're not tapering" shocker predated the ACA standoff by two weeks, but they must also have Ham's crystal-ball-o-vision. They saw the whole thing coming. It can't possibly be because the US economy is on perpetual life support.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 20, 2013 14:05:34 GMT -5
Incidentally, how are your "Putin will be history within a year." and "We'll barely see any QE at all." predictions from September 2012 working out for you?
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 20, 2013 15:05:57 GMT -5
Hahah, I luv it, further proof that you OP is garbage. Your response is filled with nothing but tangents unrelated to your assertion that "debt inc" loves asset purchases.
Open market operations existed long before QE, btw. Keep drawing conclusions from unrelated topics, all conspiracy thoeries rely on it!
No recovery at all? Right, housing prices aren't coming back, and companies haven't been earning money.. Just because you think there is no recovery, there is no recovery though, right? I mean it didn't look like we were heading for a shut down at the start of sept or anything...
I don't have time to go through and find all your crap posts about how gold is great and China is going to own eveything. Why don't you take a look at China's 160 billion dollar increase in USD reserves this last quarter?? Hahah..
Peace and love blossoming in the mid east? Where did I say that again? I'm pretty sure I handed you your ass on the doom and gloom conspiracy thread on Market Talk regarding that topic. Remember the Sunni/shai kool-aid I was apparently drinking? Come to think of it, it was just like how you went down in flames on market talk back in 2010 when China was "dumping" UST. Where did "truth" come from again? Oh ya a one-shot article from the gold bugs, hahah...
Again, you fail to adress anything that your OP is claiming in regardes to intrest rates and you're trying to bring up unrelated political topics to discredit me. As far as Putin goes, serch anti-putin and see how the people in Russia are liking their situation.
Keep up the good work! You're a master of the passive agressive personal attacks, and making outlandish assertions with NOTHING to back it up but hot air from gold bugs...
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 20, 2013 15:20:03 GMT -5
Oh and Virg, trying to claim that I just came up with the concept of political uncertainty is such a load of garbage. I have been maintaining a thread about a 2013 debt wall on investing persectives for two years. Welcome to the real world.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 20, 2013 16:43:03 GMT -5
I've got better things to do than articles you won't read on Fed asset purchases into this thread. But if you'd like, I can anything I come across over the next few weeks into whatever USA FTW fantasy thread you have running at the time and you can ignore or rationalize it all away there. Aside from that, you can't remember what I say, you can't remember what I predict, you can't procure a single example of things I've supposedly said, you ignore my requests for information, and I have nothing more to say to you in this thread. If you're even slightly interested, two of the articles that caught my attention in the past week: Federal Reserve Policy Failures are MountingWhat is the Fed's Updated Year-End Price Target?Bon apetit. Or not.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Oct 20, 2013 20:07:23 GMT -5
Hahah, right. I don't rememebr what you have said or predicted and that's why you are always saying things like I haven't said that since 2010. Or that's what I was saying in 2011, but... In fact, in the conversation about China dumping USTs I posted a quote from you that you didn't even remember saying, remember that?? The point here is that your OP is garbage and I have proen that nicely. You can do whatever you want, your track record speaks for itself. Continue down your path to insanity with your myopic world veiw if it makes you feel better, but once again your ignoring your own OP to try and prove some BS conspiracy. Here an article that actually relates to your OP Virg, from MAY of this year no less... mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE94610H20130507?irpc=932
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 20, 2013 20:26:35 GMT -5
Angel, if you receive a refund larger than your Federal with holding, you are not paying taxes. And more than 15% do. Federal income taxes. A lot of lower income don't pay federal income taxes, but still pay FICA taxes. Since it is all federal taxes, then IMO it counts as paying taxes. Fica is social security. Totally different thing. Just ask Uncle Sam.
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Post by cereb on Oct 20, 2013 20:28:21 GMT -5
"This isn't a one battle deal. " Of course it isn't. Crazy people do the same shit over and over again and are completely surprised each time they don't achieve a different result. That's why they are crazy. Duh. this is the problem with irrational behavior, right? it is not easy to stop. especially if you are in denial about how bad it is for the country. Totally not easy to stop when one has no understanding of why they need to.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 20:40:48 GMT -5
this is the problem with irrational behavior, right? it is not easy to stop. especially if you are in denial about how bad it is for the country. Totally not easy to stop when one has no understanding of why they need to. they see themselves as the good guys. the heroes. kicking them to the curb is about all you can do with that kind of attitude.
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Post by Angel! on Oct 20, 2013 21:33:39 GMT -5
Federal income taxes. A lot of lower income don't pay federal income taxes, but still pay FICA taxes. Since it is all federal taxes, then IMO it counts as paying taxes. Fica is social security. Totally different thing. Just ask Uncle Sam. Yeah, whatever you can tell yourself in order to keep hating the 47%.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 22:36:34 GMT -5
Fica is social security. Totally different thing. Just ask Uncle Sam. Yeah, whatever you can tell yourself in order to keep hating the 47%. the last i checked, the F in FICA stood for FEDERAL.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 20, 2013 23:11:14 GMT -5
Yeah, whatever you can tell yourself in order to keep hating the 47%. the last i checked, the F in FICA stood for FEDERAL. Ok people. Fica does not run the government agencies. Grow up and at least admit what taxes are used for what purposes. Poor people pay for state license plates if they have a car. If they have a car, they pay federal taxes on every gallon of gasoline they purchase. They pay to use the subway. They pay to use the bus. etc, et. etc. I get it. These are an indirect tax, but do not expect the government to admit it. They call it, a fee for services, which in most cases, the fee never cover the cost of useage, so they are all subsidized for 100% of the population. "The greater good, etc." If they make little "reportable" income, they not only get all their withholding back, they get the earned income tax credit too. Therefore, they are free from federal taxation and get free money from the government. Angel, we know you are big on the Obamacare. You have already stated you have signed up for it, so I realize, you will not say a thing negative about it. I understand that. I accept that. Heck, I will admit it is a good thing for the uninsured. I am saying the government cannot afford it. They even demanded dental coverage, which I think most sane people would say, let's start with little steps first, and get medical correct. And do not tell me I hate the 47%. I have family members that are in the 47% just like most families. That does not mean I accept their decisions that keep them there as being the correct ones to make. Federal Government has become too large, and as any entity, the larger you grow, the harder the eventual collapse.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 20, 2013 23:13:00 GMT -5
dj, what does the "ica" in fica stand for? Getting a little cherpy there in cherry picking to make a bad point
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 23:23:10 GMT -5
the last i checked, the F in FICA stood for FEDERAL. Ok people. Fica does not run the government agencies. Grow up and at least admit what taxes are used for what purposes. are you one of those people that thinks there is actually a "trust fund"? how quaint.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 23:24:01 GMT -5
dj, what does the "ica" in fica stand for? Getting a little cherpy there in cherry picking to make a bad point i know the i stands for insurance, and that TAX usually follows the whole thing.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 20, 2013 23:28:36 GMT -5
Ok people. Fica does not run the government agencies. Grow up and at least admit what taxes are used for what purposes. are you one of those people that thinks there is actually a "trust fund"? how quaint. Ha Ha. Remember Al Gore and the lockbox? We all know there isn't even an iou note in the Social Security Administration. Heck, early last week the administration was talking they did not know where the money was coming from to pay the retires their checks at the first of the month.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 20, 2013 23:33:15 GMT -5
are you one of those people that thinks there is actually a "trust fund"? how quaint. Ha Ha. Remember Al Gore and the lockbox? the only kind thing i have to say about Al Gore is that he divorced Tipper.We all know there isn't even an iou note in the Social Security Administration. Heck, early last week the administration was talking they did not know where the money was coming from to pay the retires their checks at the first of the month. that's right. it is strictly pay-as-you go. the money that comes through FICA ends up in Iraq, Afghanistan, congress, and the federal highway program. it is all one big stinking hot mess.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 21, 2013 0:02:53 GMT -5
Yeah, that's one possibility. Or, anyone with the TEA party tag is about to get their asses handed to them in 2014 except in very very red districts. We'll know in about a year. If nothing else it'll be really interesting to see if a real rift opens up on the conservative side and splits the party. The rhetoric is there right now, but we'll see if it materializes in the primaries and big money. I don't know when was the last time a major party in America split, but it should be interesting to see if it happens. The unfortunate thing for conservatives of course would be that if it does happen it probably guarantees a growing Democrat majority in the Senate, possibly a slim majority in the House, and should give whoever the Dems pick for 2016 a good shot at the presidency. Actually, what's going to happen in 2014 is the GOP is going to get shellacked. They will blame it on the TEA Party, but in reality it will be the consequences of caving on ObamaCare. The reality is that the youth and vitality of the GOP is all TEA Party conservative- as is the youth of the country. This is why the old guard and the Dems are desperately trying to import foreigners to vote. They've aborted their voters. Barring immigration reform, the smart money is on the TEA Party & conservative movement in the next two decades. As the government that promised heaven continues to deliver hell, Americans- who are not fucking FRENCH- will actually turn back to conservative ideas. We're clearly stupid- but we're not quite that stupid. Conservative ideas are proven, they make sense, and when sold instead of compromised on and surrendered- they sell very well. Remember, what I just said in my last post- Reagan's Goldwater speech "A Time For Choosing" was in 1964. He didn't win the nomination until 1980. It may take time, but victory is coming.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 21, 2013 0:03:24 GMT -5
This is exactly my point. It won't take many of us.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2013 1:27:54 GMT -5
Yeah, that's one possibility. Or, anyone with the TEA party tag is about to get their asses handed to them in 2014 except in very very red districts. We'll know in about a year. If nothing else it'll be really interesting to see if a real rift opens up on the conservative side and splits the party. The rhetoric is there right now, but we'll see if it materializes in the primaries and big money. I don't know when was the last time a major party in America split, but it should be interesting to see if it happens. The unfortunate thing for conservatives of course would be that if it does happen it probably guarantees a growing Democrat majority in the Senate, possibly a slim majority in the House, and should give whoever the Dems pick for 2016 a good shot at the presidency. Actually, what's going to happen in 2014 is the GOP is going to get shellacked. They will blame it on the TEA Party, but in reality it will be the consequences of caving on ObamaCare. The reality is that the youth and vitality of the GOP is all TEA Party conservative- as is the youth of the country. This is why the old guard and the Dems are desperately trying to import foreigners to vote. They've aborted their voters. Barring immigration reform, the smart money is on the TEA Party & conservative movement in the next two decades. As the government that promised heaven continues to deliver hell, Americans- who are not fucking FRENCH- will actually turn back to conservative ideas. We're clearly stupid- but we're not quite that stupid. Conservative ideas are proven, they make sense, and when sold instead of compromised on and surrendered- they sell very well. Remember, what I just said in my last post- Reagan's Goldwater speech "A Time For Choosing" was in 1964. He didn't win the nomination until 1980. It may take time, but victory is coming. it appears that the GOP has a den of snakes in its midst... poisoning the body politic with non-rational doubletalk and arrogant incendiary blather. Making excuses (in ADVANCE!) for the failures of the party they they are poisoning. Can the GOP survive their toxic influence? Or will this evil cult of bitter egomaniacs be the death of the Republican Party? "Americans- who are not fucking FRENCH"... ? A large portion of the US population has some French ancestry. Many towns and citties have streets and buildings named in honor of Gen. George Washington's buddy and fellow Mason, the Marquis de LaFayette.. Indiana, Louisiana, California and Colorado have cities named for LaFayette. Without the support of the French, the American insurrectionists would likely have been ground into the dust and ultimately only remembered alongside Guy Fawkes. I find your (ironically) Chauvinist prejudices against the French- and your utter contempt for them- to be nothing less than contemptible. as for I think you are parading a passel of delusions. "The smart money"? Really? Who is this "smart money" faction? The speculators and manipulators have been running the show for years? The ones who "arranged" our current financial and economic situations? As I recall... ENRON was the darling of the smart money set! That fanatic adherents of the TEA Party are the willing tools of the "smart money" crowd... is no revelation. BUT... remember how the "smart money" divested themselves of ENRON shares long before the bubble burst... by selling their shares to gullible dupes who embraced the hype?
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Posts: 31,709
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 21, 2013 8:26:28 GMT -5
You're over-thinking my post, PT. I'm saying that a betting person has good reason to assume that We The People will be successful in stopping, and rolling back the federal leviathan in the next two decades vs. getting run over by it. I say this for two reasons- one, as I pointed out, is data-based and demographic. The other is pure, unadulterated hope- because you have to believe in the cause no matter how hopeless the whole mess looks.
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