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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 15:20:02 GMT -5
www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-26/total-us-debt-gdp-105Now that we have the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth in both rate of change and absolute current dollar terms ($16,010 billion), we can finally assign the appropriate debt number, which we know on a daily basis and which was $16,771.4 billion as of March 31, to the growth number. The end result: as of March 31, 2013, the US debt/GDP was 104.8%, up from 103% as of December 31, 2012 or a debt growth rate that would make the most insolvent Eurozone nation blush. this is not only an exaggeration, it is factually inaccurate. four nations in Europe have worse debt/GDP ratios than the US. moreover, the US has done better in terms of getting a handle on the crisis than most of Europe.There was a time when people were concerned about this unsustainable trajectory, but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore. rubbish. i have been a deficit hawk since Reagan was in office. people have never cared more than they do RIGHT NOW. Are you calling me a rubbish person or the article? dj It's good thing you worry about deficit if I am not mistaken you have children, right? Nobody wants to leave their children with a huge mass to clean it up after we are long gone. That sounds doesn't sits well with me.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 15, 2013 15:35:10 GMT -5
rubbish. i have been a deficit hawk since Reagan was in office. people have never cared more than they do RIGHT NOW. Are you calling me a rubbish person or the article? dj i don't make personal remarks. except to Paul. It's good thing you worry about deficit if I am not mistaken you have children, right? correct.Nobody wants to leave their children with a huge mass to clean it up after we are long gone. of course. and make no mistake. our grandkids will curse us. i just want them to curse a bit less.That sounds doesn't sits well with me. me neither. it is a tax on the future to pay for present extravagences. totally unfair.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 15:45:26 GMT -5
Are you calling me a rubbish person or the article? dj i don't make personal remarks. except to Paul.
You shouldn't make personal remarks to anybody there's better way to relate your message, you know? It's good thing you worry about deficit if I am not mistaken you have children, right? correct.
I bet you are very caring Father. Nobody wants to leave their children with a huge mass to clean it up after we are long gone. of course. and make no mistake. our grandkids will curse us. i just want them to curse a bit less.
Yourway or highway, right. dj That sounds doesn't sits well with me. me neither. it is a tax on the future to pay for present extravagences. totally unfair.I agree with you one hundred percent.
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on May 15, 2013 22:02:09 GMT -5
This is a positive argument about the numbers and it makes sense- BUT- putting a normal budget look on it having a deficit is bad news- other than in cases of national need we should not have them. theweek.com/article/index/244171/is-our-national-debt-problem-solvedPretty funny the chart shows the non-existent surplus we had. If Clinton wasn't president then, the GOP would be throwing that surplus out in every election fight instead of denying it exists- even though the GOP congress created it- even though the GOP candidates ran on it back then....
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 15, 2013 23:08:03 GMT -5
The CBO is legendary for undershooting deficit predictions. If we believed their outlook from 2010, the US was supposed to be run a "modest" $300B deficit in FY2012.
Yeah. Right. You only undershot the real number by... what... 70%?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 15, 2013 23:11:06 GMT -5
It. did. not. exist. It was Pres. Clinton moving funds that were supposed to go into keeping Social Security adequately funded into paying off the public deficit. He moved money from America's right pocket--that was some other president's problem to deal with later--into America's left pocket, and called it a "surplus". You are promoting this kind of underhanded political skullduggery by perpetuating the myth. Please. stop.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 16, 2013 0:47:17 GMT -5
The CBO is legendary for undershooting deficit predictions. If we believed their outlook from 2010, the US was supposed to be run a "modest" $300B deficit in FY2012. Yeah. Right. You only undershot the real number by... what... 70%? that doesn't seem right to me, Virgil. the 2010 prediction for 2011 was $1.066T, if what i just read was correct. it seems unlikely to me that they would predict that the deficit would fall by 2/3 between 2011 and 2012. link?
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 5:50:09 GMT -5
Every year under Clinton, the Federal Debt increased at least a little. There was no surplus.
Edit: I guess using my accounting knowledge from that evil MBA school I went to (you know, the one that taught me how to make money by screwing over other people), it's still technically possible that the debt grew at the same time there was a surplus. For any one year, if the gov'ts cash position grew more than the debt did, then that would be a surplus.
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 6:43:18 GMT -5
Does anyone know how to find the interested rate assumptions used by the CBO for their projections? I'm curious to know whether the CBO assumed interest rates on the debt go back to normal. I'm also curious to know how rising interest rates (if this was even an assumption) affected private investment (and therefore tax revenue).
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 16, 2013 7:06:19 GMT -5
The CBO is legendary for undershooting deficit predictions. If we believed their outlook from 2010, the US was supposed to be run a "modest" $300B deficit in FY2012. Yeah. Right. You only undershot the real number by... what... 70%? that doesn't seem right to me, Virgil. the 2010 prediction for 2011 was $1.066T, if what i just read was correct. it seems unlikely to me that they would predict that the deficit would fall by 2/3 between 2011 and 2012. link? I don't have one. I'm not sure about the 2010 date. I just recall viewing a CBO chart from a few years ago with the deficit plummeting exponentially to $300-something billion by FY2012. They were assuming the Bush tax cuts expired, a variety of mandated budget cuts were implemented, and significant growth in revenues.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 16, 2013 9:42:10 GMT -5
that doesn't seem right to me, Virgil. the 2010 prediction for 2011 was $1.066T, if what i just read was correct. it seems unlikely to me that they would predict that the deficit would fall by 2/3 between 2011 and 2012. link? I don't have one. I'm not sure about the 2010 date. I just recall viewing a CBO chart from a few years ago with the deficit plummeting exponentially to $300-something billion by FY2012. They were assuming the Bush tax cuts expired, a variety of mandated budget cuts were implemented, and significant growth in revenues. before the recession hit, the numbers were HUGELY off. but that was an exceptional anomaly. what we know from the forecasts is that they are not much better than WF forecasts. in other words, if you look at what happened this year, and predict that this is what will happen next year, you are doing about as well as the CBO, generally speaking.
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Post by fairlycrazy23 on May 16, 2013 14:15:46 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on May 16, 2013 14:43:40 GMT -5
they have lost their minds on the money supply side. this is the real, unprecedented, big news.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 1:16:38 GMT -5
oh yeah, one more thing. if this comes to pass, it will fulfill another Obama campaign promise: to cut the deficit in half. albeit a year late.
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Post by usaone on May 17, 2013 7:51:29 GMT -5
Gold collapsing.....Stocks at all time highs...deficit 50% lower than predicted.....how wrong have a lot of folks been on this stuff. Still a lot of work to do but we are headed in the right direction.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 9:39:50 GMT -5
Gold collapsing.....Stocks at all time highs...deficit 50% lower than predicted.....how wrong have a lot of folks been on this stuff. Still a lot of work to do but we are headed in the right direction. you can bet if Romney were elected, he would be taking credit for every bit of it. CA's UE rate just fell to 9%, down 1.7% in the last year, with 273,000 jobs created.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 13:00:59 GMT -5
Right direction, but spurred on by the Fed's unsustainable policy. As in physics, these things tend to have equal and opposite reaction.
Plus right now, with the dollar rising, we seem to be benefitting from weakness elsewhere.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 13:09:25 GMT -5
Right direction, but spurred on by the Fed's unsustainable policy. As in physics, these things tend to have equal and opposite reaction. Plus right now, with the dollar rising, we seem to be benefitting from weakness elsewhere. not sure how much QE has helped, honestly. but we'll see.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 17, 2013 13:31:26 GMT -5
It will keep on running... better and better... faster and faster... until it doesn't. It never ceases to amaze me how a little smoke and mirrors, a little bit of shuffling of money from one pocket to the other, a little bit of Europe melting down, and a few trillion dollars a year worth of Fed intervention can make everyone forget that absolutely none of the problems have been solved (and in fact most are growing exponentially in magnitude). Enjoy the boom, my friends.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 13:38:53 GMT -5
It will keep on running... better and better... faster and faster... until it doesn't. It never ceases to amaze me how a little smoke and mirrors, a little bit of shuffling of money from one pocket to the other, a little bit of Europe melting down, and a few trillion dollars a year worth of Fed intervention can make everyone forget that absolutely none of the problems have been solved (and in fact most are growing exponentially in magnitude). Enjoy the boom, my friends. don't exaggerate. there is no boom. and there is no GUARANTEED bust, either. but what the fed is doing makes it FAR more likely.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 17, 2013 13:42:47 GMT -5
Gold collapsing.....Stocks at all time highs...deficit 50% lower than predicted.....how wrong have a lot of folks been on this stuff. Still a lot of work to do but we are headed in the right direction. you can bet if Romney were elected, he would be taking credit for every bit of it. CA's UE rate just fell to 9%, down 1.7% in the last year, with 273,000 jobs created. Ah, DJ. Spend $2 billion to create $1 billion worth of jobs and break out the smiles. What's that? A massive cash deficit despite better-than-projected revenues? But... but... DJ said... I cope with the injustice of it all by imagining the happy look on the faces of the staff at my charity of choice as DJ hands them a $100.00 cheque.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 14:04:39 GMT -5
you can bet if Romney were elected, he would be taking credit for every bit of it. CA's UE rate just fell to 9%, down 1.7% in the last year, with 273,000 jobs created. Ah, DJ. Spend $2 billion to create $1 billion worth of jobs and break out the smiles. i'll be smiling more when you and Paul pay out on your wagers.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 14:08:50 GMT -5
What's that? A massive cash deficit despite better-than-projected revenues? But... but... DJ said... a mountain of horsefeathers is what it is. this dipweed is conflating cash and accrual accounts, and lecturing "illiterates" like me about how dumb we are. good one. I cope with the injustice of it all by imagining the happy look on the faces of the staff at my charity of choice as DJ hands them a $100.00 cheque. i am feeling pretty confident today. want to double down?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 17, 2013 15:26:37 GMT -5
Did you or did you not have a $15.2 billion cash deficit at the end of March? As for doubling down, forget it. The charity cash is just to derive some good from the bet. The Bible forbids gambling, and I'm already pushing it.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 15:49:48 GMT -5
Did you or did you not have a $15.2 billion cash deficit at the end of March? of course. it is quite common to have a cash deficit in the state ONE MONTH BEFORE TAXES ARE DUE.As for doubling down, forget it. The charity cash is just to derive some good from the bet. The Bible forbids gambling, and I'm already pushing it. yeah, i wouldn't be too confident if i were you, either.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on May 17, 2013 18:03:15 GMT -5
We shall see.
Admittedly I don't know what CA's usual cash situation is at this time of year. Given the size of your economy, $15.2 billion seems pretty hefty.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 17, 2013 19:45:51 GMT -5
We shall see. Admittedly I don't know what CA's usual cash situation is at this time of year. Given the size of your economy, $15.2 billion seems pretty hefty. meh!
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Post by fairlycrazy23 on May 17, 2013 19:55:18 GMT -5
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Post by rockon on May 17, 2013 21:10:54 GMT -5
I waited as long as possible to see if anyone would mention the obvious reason.... can anyone say sequestration?
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Post by rockon on May 17, 2013 21:20:48 GMT -5
Seriously. Of course any reduction in deficit spending is a great thing right now but you really have to look at the fundamentals and if they have changed. The answer remains NO. If health costs soar and increase the GDP number relative to spending on a percentage basis would you cheer? This is kind of a tough spot for many liberals who still support increased spending but also want to clap and claim credit when this percentage drops because the damm conservatives hold the line on spending increases.
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