What I offer here on this blog is a view, backed up by premises and interpretations, sculpted into a framework of understanding, challenged and tested through repetitive application. After my last post I had a couple of brief conversations. One was public, with Bron Suchecki, Senior Analyst for the Perth Mint in Western Australia. The other was by email with a "gold bug" who is also a professional in the gold mining and exploration industry.
Out of these conversations emerged a dichotomy of views on which I think I can shed some light. Mine is not "expert knowledge" like these two gentlemen. Instead, it is a simple understanding that I have gained from ANOTHER. If this sounds trivial next to the opinion of two "experts," then I invite you to judge for yourself after I make my case. As I implied, these two experts do not agree.
The difference in viewpoints that I encountered is nothing new, and from my perspective it extends far and wide in gold market analyses. It is a fundamental difference of opinion born of misunderstandings (on both sides in my opinion) about what is really underlying the events we can all see. It is difficult to explain, especially since most of you are firmly embedded in one side or the other, so please bear with me here.
As I have written on many occasions, I do not consider myself a "gold bug." So where necessary, I am going to broadly refer to three fundamental views as "the gold bug view," "the mainstream view," and "the FOFOA view." But unfortunately I cannot just lay these views out as simply as you would like. I need to lead you to my understanding. So here we go.