The Bogus "Weighting" Claim

[djAdvocate]

the right wing blogs are all atwitter with tacit conspiracy of pollsters tipping the polls in favor of their hero in the hopes of ..... well, i don't know what the hope is, but that is the speculation. Nate Silver did a nice analysis on this today and found that Obama's numbers are actually better by using 2010 weighting than using 2012 weighting:

Suppose, for example, that you take the consensus forecast in each state. (By “consensus” I just mean: the average of the different forecasts.) Then you weigh it based on what each state’s share of the overall turnout was in 2008, in order to produce an estimate of the national popular vote.Do the math, and you’ll find that this implies that Mr. Obama leads nationally by 1.9 percentage points — by no means a safe advantage, but still a better result for him than what the national polls suggest.

What if turnout doesn’t look like it did in 2008? Instead, what if the share of the votes that each state contributed was the same as in 2004, a better Republican year?

That doesn’t help to break the discord between state and national polls, unfortunately. Mr. Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout.

Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method.



so, this claim is absolutely, totally bogus. the problem with the national polls is NOT weighting, it is some other kind of sampling error.


this is a long but interesting article, if you are fascinated by polling:

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/oct-30-what-state-polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote/

[Virgil Showlion]

so, this claim is absolutely, totally bogus. the problem with the national polls is NOT weighting, it is some other kind of sampling error.

You're concluding that the national polling must be the erroneous estimate. Not even Mr. Silver is so bold. To wit:

But perhaps national polls tell the right story of the race instead — meaning that the state polls systematically overrate Mr. Obama’s standing?

It’s certainly possible. (It keeps me up late at night.) If the polls in states like Ohio and Wisconsin are wrong, then FiveThirtyEight — and all of our competitors that build projections based on state polls — will not have a happy Nov. 6.

With that said, our decision to cast our lot mostly with the state polls is not arbitrary. In recent years, they’ve been a slightly more unbiased indicator of how the election will play out.

Granted, it does indicate—as you've said—that Paul probably shouldn't be as enthusiastic about his 2010-vs-2008 theory as he presently is.

As an aside: you typed 2012 instead of 2008 in first paragraph of the OP. It's somewhat confusing.

[Virgil Showlion]

Also, I just thought:

Isn't Paul's theory that the state polling data from which Mr. Silver and others base their estimates already "Democrat-enriched"? It seems to me he was accusing them of manipulating their sample groups in an attempt to compensate for differences in voting likelihood, etc., and that none of this voodoo was published along with the raw data, meaning we could never really know how truly random a "random sample group" actually was.

[djAdvocate]

what Paul claims is that there is basically a conscious or subconscious conspiracy to bump Obama's numbers (and Democrats, in general). but if you look at the HISTORICAL data, that is not the case for Democrats. the polling data comports nicely with election results. and in this particular case, it is not true either.

the best evidence will be election day. i am looking forward to NOT debating this point any more.

[Virgil Showlion]

the best evidence will be election day. i am looking forward to NOT debating this point any more.

Unless Mr. Romney happens to win the election. In that case, you'll be faced with a mad assessment of what went wrong.

As Mr. Silver puts it: you "will not have a happy Nov. 6.".

[Gardening Grandma]

What I'm afraid of is not knowing by late Tues eve. I've read that Ohio doesn't even start counting their absentee ballots until Nov 16 - anyone know if that is correct?

Should we all just not vote and let Ohio pick the next president?

[djAdvocate]

Oct 31, 2012 17:35:56 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

the best evidence will be election day. i am looking forward to NOT debating this point any more.

Unless Mr. Romney happens to win the election. In that case, you'll be faced with a mad assessment of what went wrong.

As Mr. Silver puts it: you "will not have a happy Nov. 6.".

i am going to be in the same boat with all of the pollsters, so at least i will be in good company in being wrong. but unlike them, i don't do polling for a living.

[billisonboard]

Oct 31, 2012 17:47:21 GMT -5 Gardening Grandma said:

... I've read that Ohio doesn't even start counting their absentee ballots until Nov 16 - anyone know if that is correct?

...

The bulk of absentee ballots are counted on election night. However, some ballots mailed by civilian and military personnel overseas have 10 days to arrive at the Board office following the election. Those ballots also go into the official count that is done within 10 days following the election. www.thecincinnatiherald.com/news/2012-09-22/News/The_latest_facts_on_absentee_ballots_early_voting_.html

[Virgil Showlion]

Oct 31, 2012 18:07:25 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 31, 2012 17:35:56 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Unless Mr. Romney happens to win the election. In that case, you'll be faced with a mad assessment of what went wrong.

As Mr. Silver puts it: you "will not have a happy Nov. 6.".

i am going to be in the same boat with all of the pollsters, so at least i will be in good company in being wrong. but unlike them, i don't do polling for a living.

No sweat.

If Mr. Romney wins the election, it's not as if you'll need to walk around wearing a paper bag.

You'll just have to change your name to "djpolldunce" for a week, and people should consider that suitable recompense.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

This is going to be a beautiful gem of a post a week from today. I cannot wait. I only wish I could fit the whole OP into my sig block.

[Virgil Showlion]

You're so dedicated to your theory that I'm actually rooting for you, Paul.

I don't know if you're a savant or hopelessly delusional, but I do admire your faith.

DJ's persistence is also admirable, but he's basically piggybacking on Mr. Silver et al.'s analysis. He doesn't have as much skin in the game.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 31, 2012 18:23:24 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Oct 31, 2012 18:07:25 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am going to be in the same boat with all of the pollsters, so at least i will be in good company in being wrong. but unlike them, i don't do polling for a living.

No sweat.

If Mr. Romney wins the election, it's not as if you'll need to walk around wearing a paper bag.

You'll just have to change your name to "djpolldunce" for a week, and people should consider that suitable recompense.

on the contrary. i am going to double down and lose the DJ.

[djAdvocate]

Oct 31, 2012 18:40:44 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

You're so dedicated to your theory that I'm actually rooting for you, Paul.

I don't know if you're a savant or hopelessly delusional, but I do admire your faith.

DJ's persistence is also admirable, but he's basically piggybacking on Mr. Silver et al.'s analysis. He doesn't have as much skin in the game.

entirely true. however, as i pointed out (and as Mr Silver points out) it is not just him. every single poll aggregator has exactly the same prediction in their nowcast for every state except Florida. in the case of Florida, TPM has Obama +0.2%.

[Virgil Showlion]

Oct 31, 2012 19:30:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 31, 2012 18:40:44 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

You're so dedicated to your theory that I'm actually rooting for you, Paul.

I don't know if you're a savant or hopelessly delusional, but I do admire your faith.

DJ's persistence is also admirable, but he's basically piggybacking on Mr. Silver et al.'s analysis. He doesn't have as much skin in the game.

entirely true. however, as i pointed out (and as Mr Silver points out) it is not just him. every single poll aggregator has exactly the same prediction in their nowcast for every state except Florida. in the case of Florida, TPM has Obama +0.2%.

Right. You've taken the safe n' sensible route. Tried n' true. Calm n' cozy. Sure n' secure.

Paul, on the other hand, is taking a genuine leap of faith.

[Deleted]

Oct 31, 2012 18:40:44 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

You're so dedicated to your theory that I'm actually rooting for you, Paul.

I don't know if you're a savant or hopelessly delusional, but I do admire your faith.

DJ's persistence is also admirable, but he's basically piggybacking on Mr. Silver et al.'s analysis. He doesn't have as much skin in the game.

I guess you do have to have at least a little respect for those willing to run naked through the stadium in winter...

[Deleted]

I saw two guys celebrating the Giants victory today by jumping into the San Francisco bay.

Respect isn't really the emotion that came to mind.

[Virgil Showlion]

Oct 31, 2012 20:54:04 GMT -5 oped said:

Oct 31, 2012 18:40:44 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

You're so dedicated to your theory that I'm actually rooting for you, Paul.

I don't know if you're a savant or hopelessly delusional, but I do admire your faith.

DJ's persistence is also admirable, but he's basically piggybacking on Mr. Silver et al.'s analysis. He doesn't have as much skin in the game.

I guess you do have to have at least a little respect for those willing to run naked through the stadium in winter...

He has a theory and he's sticking with it.

Perhaps you don't make the distinction between electoral theory and pointless idiocy, but I do. Even though I don't think he's right, I can respect Paul's willingness to commit to a radical viewpoint.

Our society is so mired in the attitude of lying back and waiting for "the experts" to tell us what to think, mocking anything radical or unorthodox or outside the box, that I can't help but feel a certain respect for individuals with radical-but-even-halfway-reasonable theories that stand fast, pick themselves up when they fail (and they often do), and rebel against conventional wisdom.

On occasion, Paul strikes me as one such individual. And this is one such occasion.

[EVT1]

PBP is claiming landslide as well- if that happens then he does get the sweet victory he craves. He gets no credit for a photo finish.

[resolution]

I find it mildly entertaining that our two most avid contenders are both voting for Gary Johnson.

[Driftr]

Oct 31, 2012 22:14:12 GMT -5 resolution said:

I find it mildly entertaining that our two most avid contenders are both voting for Gary Johnson.

If one of the two contenders you're talking about is DJ, he already voted for Ron Paul rather than that lying sack of crap hypocrite Gary Johnson.

[Deleted]

I can't wait till this election is over so I can stop hearing about Bronco Bama and Nate Silver.

[resolution]

Nov 1, 2012 12:34:53 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Oct 31, 2012 22:14:12 GMT -5 resolution said:

I find it mildly entertaining that our two most avid contenders are both voting for Gary Johnson.

If one of the two contenders you're talking about is DJ, he already voted for Ron Paul rather than that lying sack of crap hypocrite Gary Johnson.

Yes it was, I guess I haven't been able to keep up with things as much as I thought.

[Driftr]

Nov 1, 2012 15:46:42 GMT -5 resolution said:

Nov 1, 2012 12:34:53 GMT -5 Driftr said:

If one of the two contenders you're talking about is DJ, he already voted for Ron Paul rather than that lying sack of crap hypocrite Gary Johnson.

Yes it was, I guess I haven't been able to keep up with things as much as I thought.

Well, in your defense, he was for a long time. Took long enough to convert him. Well worth the effort though IMO.

[Deleted]

Apart from Nate Silver (probably the best at this kind of tea leaves reading, certainly heads and shoulders above Rasmussen and Gallop), my Spidey senses have been tingling, and Obama the statesman, the empathetic, competent protector, is surging just at the right moment. Call it a hunch.

I'm pretty good with hunches and gut feelings, but maybe not as good as Paul.

Look folks, its been fun and painful and boring and occasionally exhilarating and even entertaining, the point is we may be rooting for different teams, but we are playing the same game by the same rules. On the morning of the 7th (hopefully) one team will be the winner...and life goes on and there is always next season.

[jkapp]

Oct 31, 2012 17:28:19 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

what Paul claims is that there is basically a conscious or subconscious conspiracy to bump Obama's numbers (and Democrats, in general). but if you look at the HISTORICAL data, that is not the case for Democrats. the polling data comports nicely with election results. and in this particular case, it is not true either.

the best evidence will be election day. i am looking forward to NOT debating this point any more.

I'm just counting the days until the sitnkin' ads stop playing on the TV. Although, I don't need to count, I guess, because the number is always listed at the top of this webpage

[djAdvocate]

Oct 31, 2012 19:59:50 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Oct 31, 2012 19:30:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

entirely true. however, as i pointed out (and as Mr Silver points out) it is not just him. every single poll aggregator has exactly the same prediction in their nowcast for every state except Florida. in the case of Florida, TPM has Obama +0.2%.

Right. You've taken the safe n' sensible route. Tried n' true. Calm n' cozy. Sure n' secure.

Paul, on the other hand, is taking a genuine leap of faith.

a common trait for fools and heroes. we shall see where he ends up, eh?

[djAdvocate]

Oct 31, 2012 22:14:12 GMT -5 resolution said:

I find it mildly entertaining that our two most avid contenders are both voting for Gary Johnson.

LOL!

[Virgil Showlion]

Nov 1, 2012 18:01:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Oct 31, 2012 19:59:50 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Right. You've taken the safe n' sensible route. Tried n' true. Calm n' cozy. Sure n' secure.

Paul, on the other hand, is taking a genuine leap of faith.

a common trait for fools and heroes. we shall see where he ends up, eh?

Depending on the outcome, we'll either need to buy earplugs or some kind of pavement scaper to deal with Paul.

[djAdvocate]

Nov 1, 2012 19:57:41 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Nov 1, 2012 18:01:14 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

a common trait for fools and heroes. we shall see where he ends up, eh?

Depending on the outcome, we'll either need to buy earplugs or some kind of pavement scaper to deal with Paul.

this is why i don't like unhedged bets. they always end badly.