What would total collapse look like?

[Phoenix84]

This may belong over in P&M, but I like you guys .

Some people think the U.S is headed for total economic collapse. I'm not sure if that's true or not, but let's talk about what would happen.

What would happen if there was a total economic collapse? And/or, what would happen if the U.S defaulted on it's debt. And/or what would happen if there was a collapse of the U.S government?

I realize it's a extremely broad topic, but let's take a stab at it. The key explanation I'm looking for is REALISTIC. I know it's easy to let our imaginations get away and come up with Mad Max type scenarios. But usually anarchy doesn't reign. Countries have collapsed before and it's not total anarchy, at least that's what I've seen. Take the collapse of the USSR for instance.

Anyway, what do you think would happen?

[Phoenix84]

I'm not really sure what would happen (which is why I posed the question). I think the poorest and least able among us would suffer the most, as they almost always do. I think most individuals would ban together and try to help each other out, as we've seen in natural disasters. Though hungry and frightened people make for dangerous people. And sometimes "mob mentally" rules.

Perhaps the barter system would come back into fashion. Some things always have value, labor, food, housing, gold, ect.

[Deleted]

Well, i think panic would set in initially unless it is a more gradual collapse. And, people would get to their funds and banks asap and try to start pulling out their money. Then, people would try to live very close to the vest. And, as people began losing their homes, we would see more and more people living together out of necessity. Kids would move home. Relatives would live together. We might see a rise in hunting and other "pioneer" type activities as people begin focusing on self preservation.

[Phoenix84]

Good points shooby. You'd likely see small communities and famlies banding together for survival. You'd likely see mass exodus from the urban areas to rural areas.

[Deleted]

I would learn to shoot squirrels. We seem to have a lot of those. Meat is meat! ;D

[Phoenix84]

I agree steve, the government is very unlikely to collapse even if there is total economic collapse. A lot of people don't realize the government's first and foremost priority is going to be preservation of itself. I think total economic collapse is far more likely.

[Virgil Showlion]

Nobody really knows what will happen, Phoenix. There are as many theories about it as there are theorists.

I can guarantee you only that it will be chaotic, there will be a lot of suffering and death, and it will not end quickly.

[Phoenix84]

I'm not really worried that it will happen. Really, I can't control it so why worry about it? Worrying about things you can't change is a waste of time and effort.

As far as "doomsday prepping" like steve suggested, personally I'm not really in a position to do that. I don't own property or have a gun. I don't know the first things about raising crops or hunting or raising livestock (not that I even have space for those things). And I don't really have massive amounts of money to go buy a rural farm or a shipping container full of food and water. So even if I wanted to, I can't afford to do a lot of "doomsday prepping."

All I have done is stockpile a couple of months worth of food and water. That's really about all I can do. But I'd probably fare better than most. I'm young and healthy.

But I was looking for theories on what would happen.

[dannylion]

Short of an asteroid strike on the US or a megavolcano eruption in Yellowstone, it is very unlikely that the entire US economy and/or US society will collapse. I think that's just wishful thinking by all the doomsayers and wingnuts. It's easier to hope for the destruction of everything than to face their own crappy lives and make the changes necessary to improve them. JMHO.

[dannylion]

Oct 27, 2012 11:57:35 GMT -5 @bloomscuzzer said:

Oct 27, 2012 11:55:00 GMT -5 dannylion said:

Short of an asteroid strike on the US or a megavolcano eruption in Yellowstone, it is very unlikely that the entire US economy and/or US society will collapse. I think that's just wishful thinking by all the doomsayers and wingnuts. It's easier to hope for the destruction of everything than to face their own crappy lives and make the changes necessary to improve them. JMHO.

That is kind of a harsh judgement, isn't it?

Depends on your point of view. I have a good life, so I don't have any reason to hate people with good lives or to hope they are destroyed. Others seem to feel differently. It is my opinion that the preductions of
the doomsayers and wingnuts arise from their own envy and self loathing, not from any rational comprehension or analysis of events. Again, JMHO. You are free to feel differently.

[Formerly SK]

I know a few doomsayers and definitely some of them (not all) are a tad disappointed when the impending calamity doesn't happen. It's not overt, but when you think the end is finally here (like when the last solar blast from the sun happened) and you are knowingly prepared and lecturing everyone one how THEY need to be prepared, when it doesn't happen you look a little foolish. People don't want to appear foolish, so a small part of them ends up hoping for the bad event to happen. It's sick and twisted, and again no one would ever actually say they want the world to suffer, but when you have so much invested in that mindset it's an inevitable consequence.

I knew quite a few people who prepared for Y2K (food/water/cash/guns) and some weren't exactly overjoyed when nothing happened. It's hard to be happy you were wrong on something.

[Sum Dum Gai]

Anyway, what do you think would happen?

Realistically I think the most likely bad scenario is that we default on our bonds. The government itself won't change at all. Well, not in a huge dramatic way anyhow. We'd default on either all of our bonds, or some of our bonds, which will obviously tank the bond market. People will get really uneasy about our currency so we'll see inflation. Not normal inflation, but quick sudden inflation, like we've seen in certain Asian countries when there's a currency crisis. If it's really really bad we end up looking like Zimbabwe during their hyper inflation. Million dollar us notes are printed and all they buy is a weeks worth of groceries, if you're lucky. More likely would be a Greece type scenario. The US dollar is still too important to the global economy for the rest of the world to allow us to totally fuck it up. So they'd work out a deal where we do a structured default on some of our debt, put in austerity measures, and life would kind of suck for a while.

Being completely honest that's the worst case scenario I really see right now, and economically maybe it would be a good thing. I'm starting to think that Congress won't remove their heads from their asses until we hit that point.

Point is, at no time during a bond market implosion, mass inflation, or a structured default with the international community will there be anarchy. There will still be cops and National Guard troops maintaining order. First responders will still be around. Schools will still be open. Businesses will still be open. People will be going to work and dealing with the economic mess as best they can, not roving around in the woods shooting each other for fun and squirrels for food.

Some people will freak out and go hide in their surplus cold war bomb shelters that they've been stocking for a while, but honestly there's always a couple nuts hiding under a rock no matter what the economy is doing, so listening to those people seems counter productive. During the huge bull market in the late nineties you had people predicting the end of the world because the machines we're going to take over or whatever, so they were hiding out in Montana drinking their own recycled urine. For most of the country it was a great period and a lot of people made a lot of money. At some point all the end of the world types will probably be right, but I doubt it's going to be anytime soon.

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2012 14:19:17 GMT -5 Sum Dum Gai said:

Anyway, what do you think would happen?

Realistically I think the most likely bad scenario is that we default on our bonds. The government itself won't change at all. Well, not in a huge dramatic way anyhow. We'd default on either all of our bonds, or some of our bonds, which will obviously tank the bond market. People will get really uneasy about our currency so we'll see inflation. Not normal inflation, but quick sudden inflation, like we've seen in certain Asian countries when there's a currency crisis. If it's really really bad we end up looking like Zimbabwe during their hyper inflation. Million dollar us notes are printed and all they buy is a weeks worth of groceries, if you're lucky. More likely would be a Greece type scenario. The US dollar is still too important to the global economy for the rest of the world to allow us to totally fuck it up. So they'd work out a deal where we do a structured default on some of our debt, put in austerity measures, and life would kind of suck for a while.

Being completely honest that's the worst case scenario I really see right now, and economically maybe it would be a good thing. I'm starting to think that Congress won't remove their heads from their asses until we hit that point.

Point is, at no time during a bond market implosion, mass inflation, or a structured default with the international community will there be anarchy. There will still be cops and National Guard troops maintaining order. First responders will still be around. Schools will still be open. Businesses will still be open. People will be going to work and dealing with the economic mess as best they can, not roving around in the woods shooting each other for fun and squirrels for food.

Some people will freak out and go hide in their surplus cold war bomb shelters that they've been stocking for a while, but honestly there's always a couple nuts hiding under a rock no matter what the economy is doing, so listening to those people seems counter productive. During the huge bull market in the late nineties you had people predicting the end of the world because the machines we're going to take over or whatever, so they were hiding out in Montana drinking their own recycled urine. For most of the country it was a great period and a lot of people made a lot of money. At some point all the end of the world types will probably be right, but I doubt it's going to be anytime soon.

dark, How are you doing?

[Deleted]

It's not likely this country will be total collapse. But older folks like I am and many are going to be hurt by economy's. It is happening already anyway .

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2012 14:35:02 GMT -5 @wrongsideof30 said:

"drinking their own recycled urine"




That happened on an episode of Doomsday Preppers. ;D

Hope, it's just for the show.

[Tennesseer]

If there's a total U.S. economic collapse, I can assure you so will the rest of the world experience it.

The U.S. will be in far better shape than 98% of the world's countries. We are fortunate to be almost surrounded by water. I see no problems with our good neighbors to our north and we will control our borders to our south to protect our nation's best interests.

[Tiny]

Oct 27, 2012 1:16:28 GMT -5 @shooby said:

Well, i think panic would set in initially unless it is a more gradual collapse. And, people would get to their funds and banks asap and try to start pulling out their money. Then, people would try to live very close to the vest. And, as people began losing their homes, we would see more and more people living together out of necessity. Kids would move home. Relatives would live together. We might see a rise in hunting and other "pioneer" type activities as people begin focusing on self preservation.

I would think people would be better able to stay in their homes if things start to collapse - the house will be worthless to the bank that owns it (or nearly worthless) so I suspect no one will be in a big hurry to spend money to remove any occupants of the house. Even if there's wide spread unemployment the 50% of worker kind - maybe at the begining the banks will do evictions - but at some point that will stop - there just won't be any $$ in it for the banks.

Squatters could become the problem - living in houses without water or heat/electricity. That's gonna come down to the individual cities/utilities - will they let squatters have hookups (for which the squatters may be able to pay).

I live in a highly populated area - it's me and 6 million other people - so I think the hunting and sustanance gardening are somewhat out of the question. I would think for an urban doomsday prepper - raising rabbits or guinia pigs would be a wise move - if you want fresh protien.

I can already see the consumer market contracting - there's only 10 different types/brands of Laundry detergent available at the grocery store - versus the 20 plus available 6 years ago (the 'white only load', the 'dark only load', the multitude of detergents with various mood lifting frangrances have vanished).

I'm thinking an early harbringer of The End will be when the number of different products offered in the Ice Cream Novelty and/or Snack Aisles starts to shrink. These apparently are modern day 'food staples'.

[resolution]

If the federal government collapses I think that most states will step in to maintain order. My home state has a drill once a year where different parts of state government and the national guard practice how they would coordinate various disaster responses. I expect that most states have something like that, at least the western ones.

For those that have a kindle and amazon prime, there is a homesteading magazine you can download every month for free. I don't know how good it is, but one of my friends really likes it. www.amazon.com/Weekend-Homesteader-November-ebook/dp/B00609YAYC/ref=sr_1_2?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1350234270&sr=1-2&keywords=weekend+homesteader+september

[svwashout]

My guess is that if economic collapse happens it would be the result of an epidemic of something like a new strain of hemorrhagic fever. When people are afraid to go near each other, I can't see how that wouldn't result in a serious economic hit. I'm not sure guns & gold preparation offers much in this scenario. And there would be no help from outside because the entire world could get engulfed all at once. Maybe it's a question of how long you could hold out totally quarantined inside your home? No idea how long one of these episodes would last-- maybe depends on the latency period between exposure to symptoms and how quickly and aggressively people change their living habits in reaction. Lots of economic losers from this I imagine, although if you own shares in robotics companies, you could come out ahead.

[Deleted]

As long as the government keeps together enough to keep the infrastructure in place, we will be fine. We can actually grow plenty of food to feed our people. I'm sure output would be reduced and that would put a lot of other countries in a tight spot that depend on our food. We aren't the far off from being able to meet our energy needs assuming Canada stays friendly and why wouldn't they?

[Virgil Showlion]

Oct 27, 2012 11:20:59 GMT -5 @wrongsideof30 said:

Oct 27, 2012 11:16:32 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Nobody really knows what will happen, Phoenix. There are as many theories about it as there are theorists.

I can guarantee you only that it will be chaotic, there will be a lot of suffering and death, and it will not end quickly.

Are you saying that IF there is an economic collapse this is what is going to happen? Or are you saying this IS going to happen?

It is my belief that it will occur, but the specifics of when and how is a particularly lengthy and esoteric topic.

Suffice it to say that much of what is good YM advice today—live within your means, pay off your debts, know your limitations—will remain good advice into the indefinite future.

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2012 22:23:09 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Oct 27, 2012 11:20:59 GMT -5 @wrongsideof30 said:

Are you saying that IF there is an economic collapse this is what is going to happen? Or are you saying this IS going to happen?

It is my belief that it will occur, but the specifics of when and how is a particularly lengthy and esoteric topic.

Suffice it to say that much of what is good YM advice today—live within your means, pay off your debts, know your limitations—will remain good advice into the indefinite future.

Unless all that hard work would be for not and the leveraged person with the boat, RV, and ATVs now has a mobile advantage.. Getting out of cities could be the key to survival.

[Virgil Showlion]

Oct 27, 2012 23:12:24 GMT -5 @mmc said:

Oct 27, 2012 22:23:09 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

It is my belief that it will occur, but the specifics of when and how is a particularly lengthy and esoteric topic.

Suffice it to say that much of what is good YM advice today—live within your means, pay off your debts, know your limitations—will remain good advice into the indefinite future.

Unless all that hard work would be for not and the leveraged person with the boat, RV, and ATVs now has a mobile advantage.. Getting out of cities could be the key to survival.

That's a widely-held belief, but living outside the city is expensive.

Besides that, there are pros and cons for any scenario.

During a viral outbreak, cities are the biggest hot zones, but they also have greater access to hospitals, medicines, and medical supplies.

During riots, civil unrest, or war, cities are the most heavily fortified and defended areas, but also the centers more likely to be targeted for WMD attacks.

Cities are more likely to experience chaos and violence due to food shortages, but if food is rationed, the distribution centers will almost certainly be based out of major cities.

I honestly don't know if mobility, city life, rural life, boats, RVs, etc. will be a help or a hindrance. They may even be a boon in some places and a bane in others.

[Phoenix84]

Oct 27, 2012 18:15:38 GMT -5 @mmc said:

As long as the government keeps together enough to keep the infrastructure in place, we will be fine. We can actually grow plenty of food to feed our people. I'm sure output would be reduced and that would put a lot of other countries in a tight spot that depend on our food. We aren't the far off from being able to meet our energy needs assuming Canada stays friendly and why wouldn't they?

It is true the U.S has lots of land, abundant natural resources, and a amazing ability to grow food.

But so far, that hasn't been enough to stem the tide of a sluggish economy.

[Phoenix84]

Oct 27, 2012 22:23:09 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Oct 27, 2012 11:20:59 GMT -5 @wrongsideof30 said:

Are you saying that IF there is an economic collapse this is what is going to happen? Or are you saying this IS going to happen?

It is my belief that it will occur, but the specifics of when and how is a particularly lengthy and esoteric topic.

Suffice it to say that much of what is good YM advice today—live within your means, pay off your debts, know your limitations—will remain good advice into the indefinite future.

Oh, we love lengthy and esotaric topics on YM .

Why would paying off your debts matter? If there's major economic collapse, one would think it'd be better to have material stuff than money right? Or what if hyper inflation occurs. You'll essentially be inflated out of debt. If major inflation hits, then you don't want to be the one with lots of cash on hand.

For the record, I don't think there will be total economic collapse, or the collapse of the government, or the apocalypse, but I do think we're headed towards something. Our debt and level of spending is totally out of control and can't continue indefenitely. I really do think the government will default, at least partially, sometime within our lifetime. But I'm not sure what the ramifications of such a thing will be.

[Deleted]

Oct 28, 2012 1:42:35 GMT -5 Phoenix84 said:

Oct 27, 2012 22:23:09 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

It is my belief that it will occur, but the specifics of when and how is a particularly lengthy and esoteric topic.

Suffice it to say that much of what is good YM advice today—live within your means, pay off your debts, know your limitations—will remain good advice into the indefinite future.

Oh, we love lengthy and esotaric topics on YM .

Why would paying off your debts matter? If there's major economic collapse, one would think it'd be better to have material stuff than money right? Or what if hyper inflation occurs. You'll essentially be inflated out of debt. If major inflation hits, then you don't want to be the one with lots of cash on hand.

For the record, I don't think there will be total economic collapse, or the collapse of the government, or the apocalypse, but I do think we're headed towards something. Our debt and level of spending is totally out of control and can't continue indefenitely. I really do think the government will default, at least partially, sometime within our lifetime. But I'm not sure what the ramifications of such a thing will be.

phoenix,

Remember, when I first join this board. I put up the tread of a lot about social issues and money. The main purpose of my thread was, I just want other YM's to understand of perfect storm maybe heading our way, least in short term. That does not mean, it will all happen at once. I just want other YM's to know there is possibility.
One must protect oneself. Think deep and hard,read all about what is going on in this world. Maybe that way, you can able to come up with sensible solution for your family and your self. No one, can't tell you what is best for you. You must to do the hard work, yourself.

[milee]

Oct 28, 2012 1:07:49 GMT -5 @bloomscuzzer said:

If gas gets expensive, boats lose value.

Only the ones without sails.

[Deleted]

In an event of total collapse, guns and ammo and tools will reign supreme as the most coveted items.

[milee]

Oct 28, 2012 7:56:37 GMT -5 @shooby said:

In an event of total collapse, guns and ammo and tools will reign supreme as the most coveted items.

I agree. Along those lines, don't waste your ammo on the squirrels. They're OK to eat, but very little meat. Trap them instead and save the bullets for bigger game.

[Deleted]

Good point!