cereb
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Post by cereb on Aug 20, 2012 18:26:51 GMT -5
"'d like to argue, but i have a gig. " You play? whoa yeah. What do you play?
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 21, 2012 7:44:08 GMT -5
i would have one if i knew what those numbers were. i am guessing that total outlays on FY2008/9 were about 10% below/ those of 2009/10. Check out reply #47.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 13:21:45 GMT -5
sax, kbds, vocals, and a wee bit of guitar.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 13:58:55 GMT -5
If we decide to agree that FY'09 and FY'01 were 'transition' years, then if we want somewhat of an apples to apples comparison I think it makes sense to look at the final full year of Clinton ('00) versus '03 for Bush and the final full year for Bush ('08) versus the most recent completed year for Obama. Total outlays: FY00 - $1,788,045 FY03 - $2,159,246 20.8 7% increase FY08 - $2,978,664 FY11 - $3,601,109 20.9% increase. Pretty much two sides of the same coin if you ask me. I would have looked up Reagan, Clinton & the other Bush for a similar period but I couldn't find the archived reports for those years on the fms.treas.gov site. Edited for a rounding error. i don't understand why you are overlapping terms, here. FY08 was Bush FY09 was Bush FY10 was Obama FY00 was Clinton FY01 was Bush Furthermore, Bush's last budget year was over $3.5T. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_United_States_federal_budgetit seems like the data is being cherry picked to make a point, which is that the budget is growing at a continuous rate. that is not really true. the budget grew much faster in 2009 than in any time in recent history (over 20% in that year alone). to hold Obama more than about 1/4 responsible for that is, i think, unfair. but to each their own, i guess.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 21, 2012 14:14:47 GMT -5
If we decide to agree that FY'09 and FY'01 were 'transition' years, then if we want somewhat of an apples to apples comparison I think it makes sense to look at the final full year of Clinton ('00) versus '03 for Bush and the final full year for Bush ('08) versus the most recent completed year for Obama. Total outlays: FY00 - $1,788,045 FY03 - $2,159,246 20.8 7% increase FY08 - $2,978,664 FY11 - $3,601,109 20.9% increase. Pretty much two sides of the same coin if you ask me. I would have looked up Reagan, Clinton & the other Bush for a similar period but I couldn't find the archived reports for those years on the fms.treas.gov site. Edited for a rounding error. i don't understand why you are overlapping terms, here. That was addressed in the first line of the post. Transition years. FY09 was Bush & Obama just as FY00 was Clinton & Bush. I did nothing to influence the data selection. I simply showed that after the second full year of each President, we had almost exactly the same % increase in outlays over that three year period. I see what you mean, and I disagree with you again. I hold him more than 2/3 responsible for it personally. At least as long as we're choosing to hold the one rather than the 535 responsible. On the plus side, we should hit 16T in debt outstanding by month end. My guess is next May we'll hit 17T. Not to worry though, we'll just grow our way out of it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 16:23:13 GMT -5
I see what you mean, and I disagree with you again. I hold him more than 2/3 responsible for it personally. At least as long as we're choosing to hold the one rather than the 535 responsible. why? he was barely even THERE for 2/3 of the year. and spending NEVER occurs the day a bill passes (or a president is seated). it takes months, or in some cases (like the Stimulus) YEARS in order to get spent- in some cases it is NEVER spent (TARP). so how on earth can you hold someone responsible for 2/3 of a budget that they had less than 1/3 of a say in? that makes no sense to me whatsoever.
for the record, in terms of the deficit, which i assume is the real issue here, i don't hold Bush and Obama COMBINED responsible for 2/3. i think the economy itself is at least 1/3 responsible, by pruning revenues.On the plus side, we should hit 16T in debt outstanding by month end. My guess is next May we'll hit 17T. Not to worry though, we'll just grow our way out of it. i know you meant that as sarcastic, but that is the ONLY way we will get out of it. which is why cutting spending during a recovery is suicide. the tea partiers are either completely economically illiterate, or they hate America.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 21, 2012 16:35:52 GMT -5
I see what you mean, and I disagree with you again. I hold him more than 2/3 responsible for it personally. At least as long as we're choosing to hold the one rather than the 535 responsible. why? he was barely even THERE for 2/3 of the year. and spending NEVER occurs the day a bill passes (or a president is seated). it takes months, or in some cases (like the Stimulus) YEARS in order to get spent- in some cases it is NEVER spent (TARP). so how on earth can you hold someone responsible for 2/3 of a budget that they had less than 1/3 of a say in? that makes no sense to me whatsoever.
for the record, in terms of the deficit, which i assume is the real issue here, i don't hold Bush and Obama COMBINED responsible for 2/3. i think the economy itself is at least 1/3 responsible, by pruning revenues.On the plus side, we should hit 16T in debt outstanding by month end. My guess is next May we'll hit 17T. Not to worry though, we'll just grow our way out of it. i know you meant that as sarcastic, but that is the ONLY way we will get out of it. which is why cutting spending during a recovery is suicide. Why you ask? Because it is the only objective way I can see using the tools provided by Treasury to assign the spending and match it up with a certain person. As far as growing our way out of this. It's not going to happen. We will not grow out of this. You've been saying the only way out is to grow out for quite a while now. It hasn't happened. It won't happen. You're smart enough to know it. I don't get why you keep saying it and thinking we'll avoid the bill. Instead it's another year later and the bill is another 1.xT greater without the same growth in GDP. The medicine must be taken and I promise you it will not kill you. It will taste like crap. It will make you sick. You will feel much better afterwards though. Trust me. Or just keep the spending and the deficits. That's actually what I expect we will do. It's what my plans are primarily based on. If someone as bright as you will not accept the grim reality facing us and still holds to the 'grow our way out' meme, then I'm certain there are at least a couple million more out that don't even have a clue what's going on that will just keep prattling on about getting theirs without a moments thought for what it will cost them down the road. 55 billion more in additional debt 8/1-8/17. How pathetic is that?
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 21, 2012 16:37:52 GMT -5
the tea partiers are either completely economically illiterate, or they hate America. Keep telling yourself that. Some day you may even believe it. tax and spend. tax and spend. tax and spend. It's gotta end up find in the end.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 18:45:49 GMT -5
i know you meant that as sarcastic, but that is the ONLY way we will get out of it. which is why cutting spending during a recovery is suicide. Why you ask? Because it is the only objective way I can see using the tools provided by Treasury to assign the spending and match it up with a certain person. really? i think that you can look at the congressional record, and look at the funding choices that congress makes during the time a person actually presides in office, and when they take affect. that seems way more precise to me than the shotgun approach you are suggesting.As far as growing our way out of this. It's not going to happen. We will not grow out of this. then we are doomed to become another Weimar, because we have no choice. we grow out of it, or we fail.You've been saying the only way out is to grow out for quite a while now. yes, about 3 years. the same amount of time as we have been "in" it. and i will keep saying it until we have grown out of it.It hasn't happened. It won't happen. Jesus you are cynical. that is so fatalistic it makes me want to OD on valium.You're smart enough to know it. i know nothing of the sort.I don't get why you keep saying it and thinking we'll avoid the bill. hold on there, cowboy. where did i say ANYTHING about avoiding the bill. no. i never said that, implied it, or thought it. no, what i said was that there is no way in hell we CAN pay the bill without growth. period.Instead it's another year later and the bill is another 1.xT greater without the same growth in GDP. actually, for the past 2 years GDP has grown faster than the budget. so it is already happening. if we would stop giving away the farm, the deficit would fall.The medicine must be taken and I promise you it will not kill you. what medicine?It will taste like crap. It will make you sick. You will feel much better afterwards though. Trust me. Or just keep the spending and the deficits. i am really not following you. we will have to keep spending. but we don't have to spend at ever increasing rates. we can cut back slightly and raise taxes slightly and pull out of this. it won't be that bad. unless one of two thoughts prevail: the first is cutting to the bone and driving us into another downturn. the second would be increasing spending to match growth. either of those would be fatal. but anything other than that will succeed, and it won't take much time.
people don't understand that if we freeze spending at current levels that economic growth will eventually balance the books. it is simple math, not magic. it is just how things work. the real value of spending will decline, and the real income will increase, and everything will balance out. or we can cut slightly and balance that against the economic losses to the treasury by raising taxes. that works too.That's actually what I expect we will do. It's what my plans are primarily based on. If someone as bright as you will not accept the grim reality facing us and still holds to the 'grow our way out' meme, then I'm certain there are at least a couple million more out that don't even have a clue what's going on that will just keep prattling on about getting theirs without a moments thought for what it will cost them down the road. i am sorry to disappoint you, but i don't really listen to memes, so i have no idea what you are talking about here. if there is a meme out there that says we can keep doing exactly what we are doing and grow out of it, then it is in direct contradiction with my "meme", which is that we need to reduce spending IN REAL TERMS AND GROW OUT OF IT. i have no idea how you reached the conclusion that i was some sort of believer in fairy tales like the supply side crazies or the economic illiterates, but i can assure you that i have run the numbers on my "theory" and it pencils out very nicely.55 billion more in additional debt 8/1-8/17. How pathetic is that? not terribly pathetic or surprising, given the current ratio of spending to income, which is incredibly out of whack.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 18:47:44 GMT -5
the tea partiers are either completely economically illiterate, or they hate America. Keep telling yourself that. Some day you may even believe it. no need to wait.
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vandalshandle
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Post by vandalshandle on Aug 21, 2012 19:52:46 GMT -5
I vote that tea partiers are ignorant. I do confess, however, that it is fun watching them walk around dressed up as colonials who are dressed up as Indians, wearing tea bags on their heads instead of feathers. It is easy to guess their average IQ based on the candidates they support.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Aug 21, 2012 19:57:31 GMT -5
sax, kbds, vocals, and a wee bit of guitar. Cool. I'd like to chat about that sometime.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 19:59:03 GMT -5
sax, kbds, vocals, and a wee bit of guitar. Cool. I'd like to chat about that sometime. if you are nice, and promise not to share, i can send links.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Aug 21, 2012 20:05:32 GMT -5
Cool. I'd like to chat about that sometime. if you are nice, and promise not to share, i can send links. That would be quite cool, and yes, I would absolutely not share. The nice thing...well I am nice most of the time.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 21, 2012 20:07:23 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 20:07:24 GMT -5
if you are nice, and promise not to share, i can send links. That would be quite cool, and yes, I would absolutely not share. The nice thing...well I am nice most of the time. we will get to test that theory, shortly. but i have a bit of work to do before i leave today, so not now.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Aug 21, 2012 20:14:41 GMT -5
That would be quite cool, and yes, I would absolutely not share. The nice thing...well I am nice most of the time. we will get to test that theory, shortly. but i have a bit of work to do before i leave today, so not now. That's fine, whenever you get to it. I'm in the middle of other stuff as well, so I probably wouldn't be able to get to it for a day or two.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Aug 21, 2012 20:15:27 GMT -5
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Aug 21, 2012 20:26:30 GMT -5
...the tea partiers are either completely economically illiterate, or they hate America. You realize of course that the two are not mutually exclusive....
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 21, 2012 20:50:18 GMT -5
I should have added a smiley after the frown.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Aug 21, 2012 20:56:48 GMT -5
I should have added a smiley after the frown. It's all good!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 21, 2012 20:58:42 GMT -5
I should have added a smiley after the frown. It's all good! I miss the old MSN U.S. News boards when it was a free-for-all.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Aug 21, 2012 21:09:07 GMT -5
It's all good! I miss the old MSN U.S. News boards when it was a free-for-all. Sometimes I do miss that...but there are certain posters I absolutely do not miss. At all.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 21, 2012 21:31:13 GMT -5
...the tea partiers are either completely economically illiterate, or they hate America. You realize of course that the two are not mutually exclusive.... that thought occurred to me, but i was being kind, even though at least one person didn't take it that way.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Aug 21, 2012 22:01:17 GMT -5
You realize of course that the two are not mutually exclusive.... that thought occurred to me, but i was being kind, even though at least one person didn't take it that way. I've kinda given up on trying to be kind here. The ones that those posts are directed to don't see or realize it, while the rest would rather see the fireworks. Good thing I don't post here much! ;D
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Aug 21, 2012 22:07:14 GMT -5
I miss the old MSN U.S. News boards when it was a free-for-all. Sometimes I do miss that...but there are certain posters I absolutely do not miss. At all. Yowza! I'm not one for word-brawls. Seems kinda stupid to me, and a monstrous waste of time. If a person is so passive/aggressive, and so hung-up they feel they have to bring their inner nastiness to the internet because they can't be effective in a face-to-face disagreement, they need to see to their psychological needs elsewhere! If they do it here, it causes me to have to do a lot of cyber paperwork and I'm the lazy type!
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 22, 2012 8:03:32 GMT -5
Why you ask? Because it is the only objective way I can see using the tools provided by Treasury to assign the spending and match it up with a certain person. really? i think that you can look at the congressional record, and look at the funding choices that congress makes during the time a person actually presides in office, and when they take affect. that seems way more precise to me than the shotgun approach you are suggesting.As far as growing our way out of this. It's not going to happen. We will not grow out of this. then we are doomed to become another Weimar, because we have no choice. we grow out of it, or we fail.You've been saying the only way out is to grow out for quite a while now. yes, about 3 years. the same amount of time as we have been "in" it. and i will keep saying it until we have grown out of it.It hasn't happened. It won't happen. Jesus you are cynical. that is so fatalistic it makes me want to OD on valium.You're smart enough to know it. i know nothing of the sort.I don't get why you keep saying it and thinking we'll avoid the bill. hold on there, cowboy. where did i say ANYTHING about avoiding the bill. no. i never said that, implied it, or thought it. no, what i said was that there is no way in hell we CAN pay the bill without growth. period.Instead it's another year later and the bill is another 1.xT greater without the same growth in GDP. actually, for the past 2 years GDP has grown faster than the budget. so it is already happening. if we would stop giving away the farm, the deficit would fall.The medicine must be taken and I promise you it will not kill you. what medicine?It will taste like crap. It will make you sick. You will feel much better afterwards though. Trust me. Or just keep the spending and the deficits. i am really not following you. we will have to keep spending. but we don't have to spend at ever increasing rates. we can cut back slightly and raise taxes slightly and pull out of this. it won't be that bad. unless one of two thoughts prevail: the first is cutting to the bone and driving us into another downturn. the second would be increasing spending to match growth. either of those would be fatal. but anything other than that will succeed, and it won't take much time.
people don't understand that if we freeze spending at current levels that economic growth will eventually balance the books. it is simple math, not magic. it is just how things work. the real value of spending will decline, and the real income will increase, and everything will balance out. or we can cut slightly and balance that against the economic losses to the treasury by raising taxes. that works too.That's actually what I expect we will do. It's what my plans are primarily based on. If someone as bright as you will not accept the grim reality facing us and still holds to the 'grow our way out' meme, then I'm certain there are at least a couple million more out that don't even have a clue what's going on that will just keep prattling on about getting theirs without a moments thought for what it will cost them down the road. i am sorry to disappoint you, but i don't really listen to memes, so i have no idea what you are talking about here. if there is a meme out there that says we can keep doing exactly what we are doing and grow out of it, then it is in direct contradiction with my "meme", which is that we need to reduce spending IN REAL TERMS AND GROW OUT OF IT. i have no idea how you reached the conclusion that i was some sort of believer in fairy tales like the supply side crazies or the economic illiterates, but i can assure you that i have run the numbers on my "theory" and it pencils out very nicely.55 billion more in additional debt 8/1-8/17. How pathetic is that? not terribly pathetic or surprising, given the current ratio of spending to income, which is incredibly out of whack. Nice thoughts. Won't happen the way you'd like, but nice thoughts.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 22, 2012 10:36:07 GMT -5
not terribly pathetic or surprising, given the current ratio of spending to income, which is incredibly out of whack. Nice thoughts. Won't happen the way you'd like, but nice thoughts. may your cynicism serve you as well as my optimism has served me.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Aug 22, 2012 11:11:44 GMT -5
Nice thoughts. Won't happen the way you'd like, but nice thoughts. may your cynicism serve you as well as my optimism has served me. Thank you. I expect it will.
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rockon
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Post by rockon on Aug 22, 2012 11:59:52 GMT -5
"the tea partiers are either completely economically illiterate, or they hate America. "
We are in big trouble when people as smart as DJ believe this! It would seem much more logical IMO to believe in a crazy conspiracy theory that the people responsible for running our country into 16 trillion dollars of debt might qualify as economically illiterate or hateful of America.
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