Finally some positive movement on my 401(k)!

[gooddecisions]

Beginning balance on 1/01/2012: $127,663.71
Employee contributions: 4362.38
Company contributions: 991.45
Fees: -7.83
Investment gain: 9,842.11
Current balance 2/21/2012: 142,851.82

Personal rate of return 9%! I was starting to get used to seeing a negative number or very small gain. Today is a good day to check your balance. I'm in a 2045 target plan, so I bet a lot of you have a much higher gain.

[Deleted]

The first two months of the year have seen some nice gains in the market. DOW hit a 4 year high yestereday.

[gooddecisions]

Exactly why I decided to check it out! The past 10 years have not been good to me.

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2012 9:00:35 GMT -5 gooddecisions said:

The past 10 years have not been good to me.

Or they have been extremely good to you....

[gooddecisions]

Good point, only the future knows.

[Deleted]

Wouldn't it be nice if we just knew now.

[Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ]

I've had tremendous gains in the 11 years I have had my 401K at the firm I am at.

[Deleted]

well, I feel poor now.

[Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ]

Feb 22, 2012 9:13:14 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Wouldn't it be nice if we just knew now.

The markets will always revert to the norm. So we actually do know.

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2012 9:18:33 GMT -5 Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ said:

Feb 22, 2012 9:13:14 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Wouldn't it be nice if we just knew now.

The markets will always revert to the norm. So we actually do know.

Ok smarty pants.

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2012 9:18:57 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Feb 22, 2012 9:18:33 GMT -5 Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ said:

The markets will always revert to the norm. So we actually do know.

Ok smarty pants.

<<snort>>

[Wisconsin Beth]

This reminds that I need to call the deferred comp people and get my user id and password reset.

[reader79]

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2012 to 02/21/2012 is 12.4%

Beginning Balance as of 01/01/2012 $38,163.74
Employee Contributions $550.52
Employer Contributions $275.28
Loan Repayments $422.12
Fees -$7.50
Change in Market Value $4,781.37
Current Balance as of 02/21/2012 $44,185.53

Well, I did break a commandment with the loan, but I just changed my contribution % back to 10% from 6. It should take effect next week. I am liking the 12% so far though.

[gooddecisions]

Actually, I'm not sure the past 10 years really do matter anymore given that last year is when I moved all my funds into the target plan.

[daisylu]

I have been hanging around the 12% gain mark as well for the last couple of quarters. Our funds are very limited, and for years we hardly saw over 8%. I am glad to see the uptick!

[Wisconsin Beth]

WOW! I'm closing in on a milestone! Woohoo!

[ysi]

Beginning balance pension 0

After 29yrs $281,601.92

Last 5mos balance increased on average $3,573 per month.

Livable income, however its partially based on variable rate stock market gains/losses.

I won't have accumulated enough overall until the amount invested in fixed rates of return increases each month by enough to live on for the month.

This is meant to be informative to those of you who just make a living wage...and nothing more.

[tcu2003]

Woo hoo - just checked mine and so far this year, I have a 10.3% personal rate of return.

And just checked DH's, and his is 9.42%.

[tallguy]

Feb 22, 2012 9:18:33 GMT -5 Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ said:

Feb 22, 2012 9:13:14 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Wouldn't it be nice if we just knew now.

The markets will always revert to the norm. So we actually do know.

Perhaps, but "when" is the issue. Take a look at a graph for the Nikkei. Or at year-by-year returns. It was ugly for 20 years. Will it eventually come back? Sure. Will it be in time to save a generation of investors? That's a lot less sure. Granted, the U.S. market has been likely the most stable in the world over the long term, but are we immune from losing around 60% in four years, or over 75% in fifteen years as they did? Might we end up with a decades-long plateau? You can say it was a bubble that burst, and that they now are near where they actually should be, but I'd bet a lot of people lost a lot of money that they may never get back. Is it NECESSARILY different here?

[Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ]

Feb 22, 2012 22:47:04 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Feb 22, 2012 9:18:33 GMT -5 Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ said:

The markets will always revert to the norm. So we actually do know.

Perhaps, but "when" is the issue. Take a look at a graph for the Nikkei. Or at year-by-year returns. It was ugly for 20 years. Will it eventually come back? Sure. Will it be in time to save a generation of investors? That's a lot less sure. Granted, the U.S. market has been likely the most stable in the world over the long term, but are we immune from losing around 60% in four years, or over 75% in fifteen years as they did? Might we end up with a decades-long plateau? You can say it was a bubble that burst, and that they now are near where they actually should be, but I'd bet a lot of people lost a lot of money that they may never get back. Is it NECESSARILY different here?

Normalized returns are around 10.5% give or take a few tenths, over a 30 year period. Since the market lows of 2008/09, the equities markets are up nearly 100%. Anyone continuing to DCA during that time saw nice gains on those contributions.

The key, is to stay invested, be diversified and stay the course. Personally, I am in decent shape because I did not sell at the market lows, then buy in at the recent highs.

[achelois]

Me, too.


Then there are the dividends. :-)

[tallguy]

Feb 23, 2012 10:45:25 GMT -5 Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ said:

Feb 22, 2012 22:47:04 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Perhaps, but "when" is the issue. Take a look at a graph for the Nikkei. Or at year-by-year returns. It was ugly for 20 years. Will it eventually come back? Sure. Will it be in time to save a generation of investors? That's a lot less sure. Granted, the U.S. market has been likely the most stable in the world over the long term, but are we immune from losing around 60% in four years, or over 75% in fifteen years as they did? Might we end up with a decades-long plateau? You can say it was a bubble that burst, and that they now are near where they actually should be, but I'd bet a lot of people lost a lot of money that they may never get back. Is it NECESSARILY different here?

Normalized returns are around 10.5% give or take a few tenths, over a 30 year period. Since the market lows of 2008/09, the equities markets are up nearly 100%. Anyone continuing to DCA during that time saw nice gains on those contributions.

The key, is to stay invested, be diversified and stay the course. Personally, I am in decent shape because I did not sell at the market lows, then buy in at the recent highs.

I'm not saying I'm not a believer. I stayed fully invested at all times and have dramatically increased my investments lately, especially since the middle of last year. My portfolio is at an all-time high. So yes, I believe in the market. I'm just not foolish enough to think it is guaranteed, either in the near-term or the long-term.

[phil5185]

Take a look at a graph for the Nikkei. Or at year-by-year returns. It was ugly for 20 years. Will it eventually come back? Sure. Will it be in time to save a generation of investors?

IMO the 'term' is a key parameter in investment selection. Before that 20 yr period the Nik had a long period of 20%/yr and 25%/yr returns. Look at the Nasdaq, it had high returns for many yrs, and then crashed 12 yrs ago, that generation may never see the recovery. And consider the University Endowments, Harvard, Yale, a couple centuries old, they typically average >17%/yr returns. They are not constrained by a human lifetime, they can buy a patch of desert & wait until Disney builds a Theme Park, it can be 20 yrs or 200 yrs.

The SP500 Index, at its 11%/yr return, has a shorter crash/recovery fluctuation cycle than the high return indexes - it can cycle 3 or 4 times in a human 30-yr investment life cycle, revert to the mean, it gives us time to build wealth & then exit into wealth preservation products.