If The Economy Is Getting Better...

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

I don't want to hijack the unemployment thread, but evt1 stated something pretty close to (paraphrasing) no matter what the actual facts are, conservatives will argue with anything that doesn't match up to their worldview that America is going to hell in a handbasket under Obama' (again, paraphrasing).

The reality is, that things are going to hell. Most of us know this intuitively- especially if we've been around awhile. Now, we can put intuition aside, and look at some facts:

theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/if-the-economy-is-improving

But right now there are some "bright spots" in the economy, and you are bound to run into family and friends that will repeat to you the nonsense that they are hearing on the television about how the economy is recovering

When they try to convince you that the economy is getting better, ask them these questions....

If the economy is getting better, then why did new home sales in the United States hit a brand new all-time record low during 2011?

money.cnn.com/2012/01/26/real_estate/new_home_sales/index.htm?iid=HP_River

If the economy is getting better, then why are there 6 million less jobs in America today than there were before the recession started?

www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/01/12/the-worst-economic-recovery-since-the-great-depression/2/

If the economy is getting better, then why is the average duration of unemployment in this country close to an all-time record high?

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMEAN

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of homeless female veterans more than doubled?

usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/24/10227869-number-of-homeless-female-veterans-more-than-doubles

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of Americans on food stamps increased by 3 million since this time last year and by more than 14 million since Barack Obama entered the White House?

www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34snapmonthly.htm

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of children living in poverty in America risen for four years in a row?

fcd-us.org/resources/2011-child-well-being-index-cwi#node-1128

If the economy is getting better, then why is the percentage of Americans living in "extreme poverty" at an all-time high?

theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/extreme-poverty-is-now-at-record-levels-19-statistics-about-the-poor-that-will-absolutely-astound-you

If the economy is getting better, then why is the Federal Housing Administration on the verge of a financial collapse?

www.theepochtimes.com/n2/united-states/federal-mortgage-insurer-headed-toward-collapse-181641.html

If the economy is getting better, then why do only 23 percent of American companies plan to hire more employees in 2012?

latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/12/less-than-a-quarter-of-companies-to-hire-in-2012-careerbuilder.html

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of self-employed Americans fallen by more than 2 million since 2006?

www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusiness/story/2011-09-07/Fewer-people-choose-to-be-self-employed/50305432/1

If the economy is getting better, then why did an all-time record low percentage of U.S. teens have a job last summer?

www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2011-09-05/Summer-ends-on-sour-note-for-jobless-teens/50247060/1

If the economy is getting better, then why does median household income keep declining? Overall, median household income in the United States has declined by a total of 6.8% since December 2007 once you account for inflation.

theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/shocking-charts-and-statistics-that-prove-that-america-is-no-longer-a-wealthy-nation

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of Americans living below the poverty line increased by 10 million since 2006?

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/11/poverty-america-likely-worse-report

If the economy is getting better, then why is the average age of a vehicle in America now sitting at an all-time high?

www.usatoday.com/money/autos/story/2012-01-17/cars-trucks-age-polk/52613102/1

If the economy is getting better, then why are 18 percent of all homes in the state of Florida currently sitting vacant?

money.cnn.com/2011/03/18/real_estate/florida_vacant_homes/index.htm

If the economy is getting better, then why are 19 percent of all American men between the ages of 25 and 34 living with their parents?

money.cnn.com/2011/11/04/pf/young_adults/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

If the economy is getting better, then why does the number of "long-term unemployed workers" stay so high? When Barack Obama first took office, the number of "long-term unemployed workers" in the United States was approximately 2.6 million. Today, that number is sitting at 5.6 million.

www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

But there is some good news.

When Barack Obama first took office, an ounce of gold was going for about $850. Today, the price of an ounce of gold is over $1700.

The era of great prosperity that America has enjoyed for so long is coming to an end.

In fact, our long-term economic decline is about to accelerate.

So enjoy this "bubble of hope" while you can, because it won't last long.

.

I'm making it easy for you- I could have legitimately made each of these articles its own thread- but I found the consolidated article that made the point far better than I could have with separate threads...

[djAdvocate]

When they try to convince you that the economy is getting better, ask them these questions....

If the economy is getting better, then why did new home sales in the United States hit a brand new all-time record low during 2011?

money.cnn.com/2012/01/26/real_est....tm?iid=HP_River

because the subprime crisis is actually still not over. it should end this summer, though. then the real pain begins, as all of the foreclosures slowly trickle onto the market. but make no mistake, this was a bad bubble, and it will take a good long time to correct.

If the economy is getting better, then why are there 6 million less jobs in America today than there were before the recession started?

www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara....t-depression/2/

i have some theories about that, but i am not a sociologist. ask one.

If the economy is getting better, then why is the average duration of unemployment in this country close to an all-time record high?

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMEAN

that is typical of slow recoveries- and pretty much status quo for a financial meltdown like the great depression or the great recession.

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of homeless female veterans more than doubled?

usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/0....re-than-doubles

because this is our first war that intensively involved women. that one is easy.

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of Americans on food stamps increased by 3 million since this time last year and by more than 14 million since Barack Obama entered the White House?

www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34snapmonthly.htm

very typical for late recession, again. but truthfully, we really need to start thinking about poverty in America. it is not good, and it is not getting better among children, which should concern EVERYONE.

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of children living in poverty in America risen for four years in a row?

fcd-us.org/resources/2011-child-well-being-index-cwi#node-1128

ibid

If the economy is getting better, then why is the percentage of Americans living in "extreme poverty" at an all-time high?

theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archi....ely-astound-you

ibid

If the economy is getting better, then why is the Federal Housing Administration on the verge of a financial collapse?

www.theepochtimes.com/n2/united-s....pse-181641.html

ibid

If the economy is getting better, then why do only 23 percent of American companies plan to hire more employees in 2012?

latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co....erbuilder.html

part of what is going on in America is a basic restructuring of how we do business. efficiency is steadily rising, so delaying rehiring is to be expected.

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of self-employed Americans fallen by more than 2 million since 2006?

www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusin....oyed/50305432/1

this is a puzzling one. i have no idea. i don't know what it indicates, truthfully. possibly the fact that starting your own business during a downturn (or early recovery) is not really a very exciting prospect for most people.

If the economy is getting better, then why did an all-time record low percentage of U.S. teens have a job last summer?

www.usatoday.com/money/economy/st....eens/50247060/1

another easy one. teen unemployment is always the last sector to recover.

If the economy is getting better, then why does median household income keep declining? Overall, median household income in the United States has declined by a total of 6.8% since December 2007 once you account for inflation.

theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archi....we althy-nation

this one is also not too hard. the openings that have happened in the last two years are lower wage than the vacancies created. this same thing happened in the 90's, btw. it is a general trend that comes from being the last great superpower in a global labor market.

If the economy is getting better, then why has the number of Americans living below the poverty line increased by 10 million since 2006?

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/....ly-worse-report

ibid

If the economy is getting better, then why is the average age of a vehicle in America now sitting at an all-time high?

www.usatoday.com/money/autos/stor....polk/52613102/1

if i weren't a cynic, i would say it is because they are built better.

If the economy is getting better, then why are 18 percent of all homes in the state of Florida currently sitting vacant?

money.cnn.com/2011/03/18/real_estate/florida_vacant_homes/index.htm

ibid

If the economy is getting better, then why are 19 percent of all American men between the ages of 25 and 34 living with their parents?

money.cnn.com/2011/11/04/pf/young_adults/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

you would have to look at where the hiring is taking place. based on this statistic, it would seem that it is not entry level.

If the economy is getting better, then why does the number of "long-term unemployed workers" stay so high? When Barack Obama first took office, the number of "long-term unemployed workers" in the United States was approximately 2.6 million. Today, that number is sitting at 5.6 million.

www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

this is part of that structural reshaping i mentioned earlier. we need some industrial retraining in this country, or these people will NEVER get jobs.

But there is some good news.

When Barack Obama first took office, an ounce of gold was going for about $850. Today, the price of an ounce of gold is over $1700.

that IS good news. ;D

The era of great prosperity that America has enjoyed for so long is coming to an end.

In fact, our long-term economic decline is about to accelerate.

So enjoy this "bubble of hope" while you can, because it won't last long.

i am a firm believer that people create their own opportunities. you can sit there and sulk about it, or do what you can to make a future for yourself.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

because the subprime crisis is actually still not over. it should end this summer, though. then the real pain begins, as all of the foreclosures slowly trickle onto the market. but make no mistake, this was a bad bubble, and it will take a good long time to correct.

Wrong. The government is still insisting on re-inflating the housing bubble. As such, the government is actually prolonging the crisis by refusing to simply allow the necessary market correction to take place. In short- we need to allow the government-caused housing bubble to collapse. Like ripping off a band-aid.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

All in all- it wasn't even that nice a try. I still await a serious response. Congrats on getting over the first hurdle, however-- admitting the problems exist.

[EVT1]

Feb 4, 2012 22:05:45 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I'm making it easy for you- I could have legitimately made each of these articles its own thread- but I found the consolidated article that made the point far better than I could have with separate threads...

I'm shocked you didn't. Now ask why the economy went into the shitter in the first place, and please show how those old policies would have pulled us out any quicker.

Obama was put in office bailing out a sinking boat and the best argument you can come up with is that he can't do it fast enough. The economy is better and will continue to get better unless the voters do something stupid like put Gingrich in office or give the senate to the GOP- now back to your regularly scheduled reality.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

So enjoy this "bubble of hope" while you can, because it won't last long.

i am a firm believer that people create their own opportunities. you can sit there and sulk about it, or do what you can to make a future for yourself.

I agree. And in fact the article goes on...

Just because the economy is about to go through hard times does not mean that you have to go through hard times personally.

Right now, you can decide to make an investment or start a business that will thrive in a tough economic environment.

Victory often goes to the most prepared. So don't just sit there while the storm clouds gather. Instead, this should be a time when you are gathering resources and developing a gameplan for the coming economic chaos.

Those that choose to have blind faith in "the system" are going to be tremendously disappointed in the years ahead. Just because you have a job right now does not mean that it is always going to be there. Just because your stock portfolio is doing well right now does not mean that will always be the case.

Hopefully we all learned some important lessons from 2008. The global financial situation can turn on a dime. When markets fall apart, they tend to do so very rapidly.

Ultimately, the debate about whether the economy is improving or not is going to be ended very emphatically. When the next wave of the financial crisis hits, there will be no doubt about what direction things are going.

Don't let the next wave catch you by surprise.

Now is the time to prepare.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 4, 2012 22:37:58 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Feb 4, 2012 22:05:45 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I'm making it easy for you- I could have legitimately made each of these articles its own thread- but I found the consolidated article that made the point far better than I could have with separate threads...

I'm shocked you didn't. Now ask why the economy went into the shitter in the first place, and please show how those old policies would have pulled us out any quicker.

Obama was put in office bailing out a sinking boat and the best argument you can come up with is that he can't do it fast enough. The economy is better and will continue to get better unless the voters do something stupid like put Gingrich in office or give the senate to the GOP- now back to your regularly scheduled reality.

Most of what we're dealing with is the result of the collapse of the housing market after decades of Democrat housing policy. We've been over this too many times to count. I'm not interested in taking the time on this particular evening to re-educate you on the topic.

[EVT1]

Re-educate yourself- all you would do is repeat that old line about how the CRA caused everything forcing banks to loan to poor minorities. Let me know when you have an original thought on something.

[Don Perignon]

I remember reading about "Chicken Little" as a child.
It was supposed to be a fictional character, alas.

[Deleted]

Part of the problem is the difference between "the economy is getting better" and "the economy is better"

No one is suggesting everything is better, but the negative trends do appear to have bottomed out or improved somewhat. Things are most definitely sh***y but not as sh***y as they could be.

[Deleted]

As far as the self-employed statistic goes, I would bet that is a function of the type of work that most self-employed people do. Only a small fraction of them are the small business owners and successful entrepreneurs we think of. An awful lot of self employed people are independent consultants for various home party businesses or hobbyists selling their wares on ebay and etsy. You can only really pursue that line of work if there is another more steady income in your household. And a lot of the things those folks sell - nobody is buying in a recession.

Independent housekeepers, landscapers, realtors and other service-based self-employment are probably struggling with the economy as well. Those are the services the rest of us have cut back on during unsure times.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 4, 2012 23:18:57 GMT -5 Don Perignon said:

I remember reading about "Chicken Little" as a child.
It was supposed to be a fictional character, alas.

You didn't respond to a single point.

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[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 4, 2012 23:53:07 GMT -5 @craftysarah said:

As far as the self-employed statistic goes, I would bet that is a function of the type of work that most self-employed people do. Only a small fraction of them are the small business owners and successful entrepreneurs we think of. An awful lot of self employed people are independent consultants for various home party businesses or hobbyists selling their wares on ebay and etsy. You can only really pursue that line of work if there is another more steady income in your household. And a lot of the things those folks sell - nobody is buying in a recession.

Independent housekeepers, landscapers, realtors and other service-based self-employment are probably struggling with the economy as well. Those are the services the rest of us have cut back on during unsure times.

That is a very interesting take on it. I wasn't thinking 2 million people stopped selling lotions, potions, and scum from the oceans. I figured it was more like a lot of people in the trades aren't working anymore- I attributed this stat more to the housing collapse. Lots fewer people rehabbing and flipping property, lots fewer people installing the cabinets in new construction homes.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 4, 2012 22:58:59 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Re-educate yourself- all you would do is repeat that old line about how the CRA caused everything forcing banks to loan to poor minorities. Let me know when you have an original thought on something.

The sooner you accept the truth, the sooner I can stop repeating it.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Part of the problem is the difference between "the economy is getting better" and "the economy is better"

You would have a point there if it were not for the fact that this is the worst recovery since the Great Depression- in other words, the economy is getting better at the slowest post-recession rate since the Great Depression:

www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/01/12/the-worst-economic-recovery-since-the-great-depression/

[Deleted]

Isn't that to be expected for the worst recession since the Great Depression?

[formerexpat]

I keep hearing that this is the worst recession since the Great Depression but I believe the early 80's were worse. Unemployment rates comparable with mortgage rates >10%.

Seems like our government is getting in the way of a recovery now by pushing the administrations agenda and $1TR+ deficits.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Feb 5, 2012 0:42:25 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

I keep hearing that this is the worst recession since the Great Depression but I believe the early 80's were worse. Unemployment rates comparable with mortgage rates >10%.

Seems like our government is getting in the way of a recovery now by pushing the administrations agenda and $1TR+ deficits.

Yep. And when the economy REALLY starts to recover-- look out! It'll be time to suck up all that money the Fed used in their push-on-a-string stimulus. Inflation will be hard to control, interest rates will rise, and the four trillion + Obama spent trying to prop up this corpse of an economy of ours will come due.

[Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ]

Feb 5, 2012 0:16:15 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Feb 4, 2012 22:58:59 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Re-educate yourself- all you would do is repeat that old line about how the CRA caused everything forcing banks to loan to poor minorities. Let me know when you have an original thought on something.

The sooner you accept the truth, the sooner I can stop repeating it.

I am still waiting for someone to explain why lending money to someone who is unqualified to borrow for a mortgage is good govt policy. It has been a few years now, both here, and on the old msn boards.

[Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ]

Feb 5, 2012 0:42:25 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

I keep hearing that this is the worst recession since the Great Depression but I believe the early 80's were worse. Unemployment rates comparable with mortgage rates >10%.

Seems like our government is getting in the way of a recovery now by pushing the administrations agenda and $1TR+ deficits.

20-30 year mortgages rates were 15-18% in the early 80s.

[reasonfreedom]

Feb 4, 2012 22:37:58 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Feb 4, 2012 22:05:45 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

I'm making it easy for you- I could have legitimately made each of these articles its own thread- but I found the consolidated article that made the point far better than I could have with separate threads...

I'm shocked you didn't. Now ask why the economy went into the shitter in the first place, and please show how those old policies would have pulled us out any quicker.

Obama was put in office bailing out a sinking boat and the best argument you can come up with is that he can't do it fast enough. The economy is better and will continue to get better unless the voters do something stupid like put Gingrich in office or give the senate to the GOP- now back to your regularly scheduled reality.

Pumping trillions of dollars into the housing market and foreign country's banks is not a recovery, it is putting a band aid over a crack in the damn. Saying this is a recovery is a far stretch from reality.

[reasonfreedom]

Feb 5, 2012 7:09:16 GMT -5 Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ said:

Feb 5, 2012 0:16:15 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The sooner you accept the truth, the sooner I can stop repeating it.

I am still waiting for someone to explain why lending money to someone who is unqualified to borrow for a mortgage is good govt policy. It has been a few years now, both here, and on the old msn boards.

The said thing is they are still doing the same thing. Look at FHA loans, I got approved with a bankruptcy and foreclosure on my recent credit history. It only took like 30 minutes to get approved by the way lol. Fannie, Freddie and FHA own the vast majority of loans now in the U.S. , all government entities lol.

[reasonfreedom]

Feb 5, 2012 0:42:25 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

I keep hearing that this is the worst recession since the Great Depression but I believe the early 80's were worse. Unemployment rates comparable with mortgage rates >10%.

Seems like our government is getting in the way of a recovery now by pushing the administrations agenda and $1TR+ deficits.

You also have the differences of the measurement they were using at the time in history so it is harder to judge. U1-U6 calculates the unemployment levels differently, so without factoring in the differences between each measurement it would be inaccurate to base it on un-employment levels.

[Deleted]

Feb 5, 2012 0:42:25 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

I keep hearing that this is the worst recession since the Great Depression but I believe the early 80's were worse. Unemployment rates comparable with mortgage rates >10%.

Seems like our government is getting in the way of a recovery now by pushing the administrations agenda and $1TR+ deficits.

There are 4 or 5 "all time high" measures in the OP. Mortgage rates aren't the only measures of a bad economy.

Either times are terrible or times aren't all that bad... y'all got to pick a side.

[handyman2]

One impact on the economy is that many even with jobs are saddled with a mountian of personal credit card debt, auto loans and housing debt. This impacts the discresionary spending down to just have to spending. Until people can pay down all their indebtedness and start spending again the economic improvement will be a slow process.

[Virgil Showlion]

Somebody should point out of the 243,000 jobs "gained" in January...

Not including seasonal adjustments, it was actually a loss of 2,689,000 jobs. That's not a typo. The BLS expected 2,932,000 jobs to disappear in January, hence when "only" 2,689,000 jobs did, the recovery came roaring back with a headline number of 243,000.

Ain't math grand?

The adjustments will be heavily positive for the months of February and March as well.

[Deleted]

Probably depends on where you live and who you associate with. Where I live housing prices are still declining. I have friends and family members who are underemployed - they weren't layed off but their hours have been cut significantly. OTOH my highly skilled friends are doing just fine and taking advantage of the low housing prices. From a small business perspective it seems like there is a lot of uncertainty out there. The rhetoric against the rich and business is making people nervous. I see people cutting prices for services (photography, housecleaning, etc.) so while they are still employed they are earning less for the same amount of work.

[ugonow]

no matter what the actual facts are, conservatives will argue with anything that doesn't match up to their worldview that America is going to hell in a handbasket under Obama' (again, paraphrasing).

The reality is, that things are going to hell. Most of us know this intuitively- especially if we've been around awhile.

I keep remembering the same group a few years ago insisting there was no recession,.. the fundamentals are all strong, the economy is fine...there is no recession.... the recession is all in Americans minds.....

[djAdvocate]

Feb 4, 2012 22:34:33 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

because the subprime crisis is actually still not over. it should end this summer, though. then the real pain begins, as all of the foreclosures slowly trickle onto the market. but make no mistake, this was a bad bubble, and it will take a good long time to correct.

Wrong.

WRONG?? what planet are you on, Paul? i thought you did Real Estate. i am absolutely, 100% right.

there were two peaks to the subprime crisis. the first passed long ago. the second passed in NOVEMBER: that is the Alt-A fraction. HERE is the chart:

seekingalpha.com/article/144200-alt-a-mortgages-the-new-subprime-meltdown

as you can see, the second peak occurred in LATE 2011, and will drop to normal in June or July of this year.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 4, 2012 22:36:00 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

All in all- it wasn't even that nice a try. I still await a serious response. Congrats on getting over the first hurdle, however-- admitting the problems exist.

i addressed all but one of your bullet points. if that doesn't even qualify as a good try for you, i don't know what does.

btw- you still owe me two kudos.