djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 25, 2012 19:12:50 GMT -5
romney is leading in one florida poll and tied in another: CNN/Time 1/22 - 1/24 369 LV 5.0 34 36 11 9 Romney +2 this is completely nuts. i think if Gingrich doesn't win in Florida, he is dust. any other opinions? ?
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rockon
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Post by rockon on Jan 25, 2012 19:20:05 GMT -5
I think I have only ever agreed with Pelosi one time. It was when she predicted that Newt will never be president!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 25, 2012 19:22:14 GMT -5
I think I have only ever agreed with Pelosi one time. It was when she predicted that Newt will never be president! she was angry when she said it. not sure how much i trust angry women.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 25, 2012 19:24:54 GMT -5
I'd like to see Pelosi as dust. she is no spring chicken. you may get your wish.
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rockon
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Post by rockon on Jan 25, 2012 19:25:31 GMT -5
Personally I would probably trust her less if she was being nice. I'd wonder what she was up to.
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Post by cme1201 on Jan 25, 2012 19:25:49 GMT -5
romney is leading in one florida poll and tied in another: CNN/Time 1/22 - 1/24 369 LV 5.0 34 36 11 9 Romney +2 this is completely nuts. i think if Gingrich doesn't win in Florida, he is dust. any other opinions? ? Yo-Yo'ing in most of the polls I have seen. Local news was showing in 5 different poll's Romney with 3 Gingrich with 2. The swing seems to be in the may or probably catagory will vote. Romney has the "estimated" lead at the moment in early voting.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 25, 2012 19:30:03 GMT -5
romney is leading in one florida poll and tied in another: CNN/Time 1/22 - 1/24 369 LV 5.0 34 36 11 9 Romney +2 this is completely nuts. i think if Gingrich doesn't win in Florida, he is dust. any other opinions? ? Yo-Yo'ing in most of the polls I have seen. Local news was showing in 5 different poll's Romney with 3 Gingrich with 2. The swing seems to be in the may or probably catagory will vote. Romney has the "estimated" lead at the moment in early voting. it LOOKS LIKE the "Gingrich Bounce" from SC hit a wall. i suspect he will continue fading, unless he gets another bump from the upcoming debate. i realize i was wrong with SC. but generally speaking, ORGANIZATION wins races. and Gingrich's organization is very poor. Florida is actually a really good test of this, because the population is large and diverse. if he wins Florida, he is a contender.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 25, 2012 19:43:13 GMT -5
I agree. Not only would he be a contender, but a force majuer. However if he loses- Romney cruises. smooth rhyme! ;D
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Post by dumdeedoe on Jan 25, 2012 19:43:51 GMT -5
Didn't his campaign managers bail out and join Perry's staff about the time that his wife was caught buying alot of stuff from tiffenys?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 25, 2012 19:48:16 GMT -5
Didn't his campaign managers bail out and join Perry's staff about the time that his wife was caught buying alot of stuff from tiffenys? he has never cared much about it, which i find baffling. he thinks that personality wins presidential races, and that he has more than any other two candidates combined, i guess.
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cme1201
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Post by cme1201 on Jan 25, 2012 19:49:11 GMT -5
DJ,
Believe me I understand, I live here.
I can see Gingrich winning the state. The infusion of money 5m from the Winning Our Future super-pac that he received just before the SC primary made the push in the polls for him. The same is happening here. Not just for Gingrich but, also for Santorum. The base hardcore GOP are looking for the not Romney, the tired of the bs'ers are thinking of wasting a vote or sitting it out, and the moderates have started to cast their votes already, The Yo-Yo warble bounce in the polls is going to get real wild in the next 5 days.
If Gingrich wins Florida, Romney's done, if Santorum doesn't pull from either Gingrich or Romney and hit 20% he will have to drop due to funding issues. I think Paul will hit close to 12 but I'm hopeful he won't drop until the convention or he and Johnson team up. If Gingrich can stay with-in 5 points of Romney in Florida he will have the forward momentum I don't think the lose will hurt him as much as it will Romney.
And I agree with Pelosi "Gingrich will never be President."
Typing that just makes me feel dirty.
We actually have Santorum coming to town for a few hours tomorrow. Sponsored by the local Tea-Party.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 25, 2012 19:53:54 GMT -5
DJ, Believe me I understand, I live here. I can see Gingrich winning the state. The infusion of money 5m from the Winning Our Future super-pac that he received just before the SC primary made the push in the polls for him. The same is happening here. Not just for Gingrich but, also for Santorum. The base hardcore GOP are looking for the not Romney, the tired of the bs'ers are thinking of wasting a vote or sitting it out, and the moderates have started to cast their votes already, The Yo-Yo warble bounce in the polls is going to get real wild in the next 5 days. If Gingrich wins Florida, Romney's done, if Santorum doesn't pull from either Gingrich or Romney and hit 20% he will have to drop due to funding issues. I think Paul will hit close to 12 but I'm hopeful he won't drop until the convention or he and Johnson team up. If Gingrich can stay with-in 5 points of Romney in Florida he will have the forward momentum I don't think the lose will hurt him as much as it will Romney. And I agree with Pelosi "Gingrich will never be President." Typing that just makes me feel dirty. We actually have Santorum coming to town for a few hours tomorrow. Sponsored by the local Tea-Party. cme- i love this "feet on the ground" reporting. but after putting my trust in mmhmm in SC, i think i will stick with my polls (which, for the record, reflect your perspective).
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Post by cme1201 on Jan 25, 2012 20:03:32 GMT -5
cme- i love this "feet on the ground" reporting. but after putting my trust in mmhmm in SC, i think i will stick with my polls (which, for the record, reflect your perspective). Trust, but verify, is the greatest phrase ever. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.htmlTop 7 polls from 19-24 of January. 4 with Gingrich up high +9 low +3 2 with Romney up high+2 low +2 1 - chamber of commerce (the one I like to keep an eye on) tie. i see it flopping back and forth until Tuesday at 7am. If one of them hits it out of the park tomorrow in Jacksonville the swing may well be impressive.
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diamonds
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Post by diamonds on Jan 25, 2012 22:55:30 GMT -5
I think I have only ever agreed with Pelosi one time. It was when she predicted that Newt will never be president! she was angry when she said it. not sure how much i trust angry women. Possibly he put his hand on her knee when they were sitting on that sofa in the commercial... She's such a basket case, with all her ticks and botox. She was Obama's #1 motivator for dam sure.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 25, 2012 22:57:08 GMT -5
Florida will be very close for Romney, but I think he pulls it off. Newt will be in it to win it. He is not dropping out. I will accept, and back, either candidate in the fall. Newt, because he scares the heck out of Democrats, and will bring change to the gridlock in Congress, and Mitt, because he will cooperate with the far right, although not a 100% believer, but will work for the conservative initiatives needed to turn this country around. Still think we will see a strong Republican lead in the House Of Representatives, and a gain of three seats in the Senate for the right.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 26, 2012 13:44:25 GMT -5
Florida will be very close for Romney, but I think he pulls it off. Newt will be in it to win it. He is not dropping out. I will accept, and back, either candidate in the fall. Newt, because he scares the heck out of Democrats, and will bring change to the gridlock in Congress, and Mitt, because he will cooperate with the far right, although not a 100% believer, but will work for the conservative initiatives needed to turn this country around. Still think we will see a strong Republican lead in the House Of Representatives, and a gain of three seats in the Senate for the right. VB- if Mitt wins, how long do you think Gingrich stays in? all the way to convention?
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reasonfreedom
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Post by reasonfreedom on Jan 26, 2012 14:04:16 GMT -5
Gingrich=lose. Obama is already going to win, why else would the fed keep rates at 0% until 2014?
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Post by floridayankee on Jan 26, 2012 14:59:20 GMT -5
cme- i love this "feet on the ground" reporting. but after putting my trust in mmhmm in SC, i think i will stick with my polls (which, for the record, reflect your perspective). Not really. Two weeks ago, Romney led by double digits. Last week Gingrich led by double digits. This week it's all over the map. I wouldn't bet on the polls here in FL.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 26, 2012 15:10:54 GMT -5
cme- i love this "feet on the ground" reporting. but after putting my trust in mmhmm in SC, i think i will stick with my polls (which, for the record, reflect your perspective). Not really. Two weeks ago, Romney led by double digits. Last week Gingrich led by double digits. This week it's all over the map. I wouldn't bet on the polls here in FL. you don't think the polls reflect what is happening there. ie- do you or do you NOT think that Gingrich and Romney are basically tied, as of today?
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Post by floridayankee on Jan 26, 2012 15:37:42 GMT -5
Not really. Two weeks ago, Romney led by double digits. Last week Gingrich led by double digits. This week it's all over the map. I wouldn't bet on the polls here in FL. you don't think the polls reflect what is happening there. ie- do you or do you NOT think that Gingrich and Romney are basically tied, as of today? As of the date of the poll, maybe. It's probably swung 30 points to one side or the other by now.
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Post by cme1201 on Jan 26, 2012 15:55:15 GMT -5
you don't think the polls reflect what is happening there. ie- do you or do you NOT think that Gingrich and Romney are basically tied, as of today? As of the date of the poll, maybe. It's probably swung 30 points to one side or the other by now. GRRRR STUPID PROBOARDS! Swing will not come until after tonights debate and the "vote for me" calls that will come almost on an hourly basis for the next 4 days.
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vandalshandle
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Post by vandalshandle on Jan 26, 2012 15:57:40 GMT -5
I must be getting old. I remember when people thought that the Republican party had gone crazy when they nominated a Hollywood actor. Now, Reagan seems tame, reasonable, personable, and competent by comparison with today's Republican candidates. I have to admit, however, that I am STILL trying to figure out how come he didn't catch hell for the Iran/Contra dealings. "It was all Oliver North's doing!". Anyway, Newt is bound to self-destruct before this is over. I suspect that most republicans who are Romney fans have no idea what he stands for. Hell, I'm a democrat, and I don't even know what he is for and what he is against! He is kind of a Gerald Ford with hair.
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reasonfreedom
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Post by reasonfreedom on Jan 26, 2012 16:06:17 GMT -5
I must be getting old. I remember when people thought that the Republican party had gone crazy when they nominated a Hollywood actor. Now, Reagan seems tame, reasonable, personable, and competent by comparison with today's Republican candidates. I have to admit, however, that I am STILL trying to figure out how come he didn't catch hell for the Iran/Contra dealings. "It was all Oliver North's doing!". Anyway, Newt is bound to self-destruct before this is over. I suspect that most republicans who are Romney fans have no idea what he stands for. Hell, I'm a democrat, and I don't even know what he is for and what he is against! He is kind of a Gerald Ford with hair. Regan wasn't much of a conservative, I think Gingrich only looks like a fool for name dropping. Don't get me wrong, Regan did some great things but his by little means a conservative. He was a conservative before he got elected though.
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handyman2
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Post by handyman2 on Jan 26, 2012 19:26:30 GMT -5
well I predicted Gingrich or Paul would win SC. Paul stepped in the bucket and did not help himself. Gingrich could also prevail in Ga. But I also predicted Romney would win Fl. You see as I said before Romney is considered a Nor Easterner and there is except for Kennedy a bias in the south against those from that area. Now Fl. is different. Except for the upper northern part of Fla. it is not a southern state in it's politics. Now that Ed Ball, Hubert Rutland and Ben Hill Griffen are gone there is no political machine left there. If he plays his cards right Santorum can come in second. Time will tell.
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cme1201
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Post by cme1201 on Jan 26, 2012 19:35:11 GMT -5
Handy,
Do you have a specific section of florida that you consdier North Florida? Are you talking full Panhandle to Jacksonville down to Gainesville?
Are you speaking as too only Republican Primaries all Primaries in General or does it include the Primaries?
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zipity
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Post by zipity on Jan 26, 2012 19:55:48 GMT -5
Newt, because he scares the heck out of Democrats
I don't think Newt scares democrats, I think the people who support Newt scare the heck out of most people, including democrats.
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Post by floridayankee on Jan 27, 2012 13:30:15 GMT -5
Swing will not come until after tonights debate and the "vote for me" calls that will come almost on an hourly basis for the next 4 days. Are you talking about the robo phone calls? There's been (at least) one on the home answering machine every day all week. I think I hear three or four words before i can get it deleted and I still couldn't tell you what it says. I can only assume they're calling because DS used our home number when he registered to vote. Neither DW or I are affiliated with a party.
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cme1201
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Post by cme1201 on Jan 27, 2012 15:25:02 GMT -5
Swing will not come until after tonights debate and the "vote for me" calls that will come almost on an hourly basis for the next 4 days. Are you talking about the robo phone calls? There's been (at least) one on the home answering machine every day all week. I think I hear three or four words before i can get it deleted and I still couldn't tell you what it says. I can only assume they're calling because DS used our home number when he registered to vote. Neither DW or I are affiliated with a party. Lots of robo's but, there are some of the campaigns using live callers. As I am not affiliated I don't generally receive the calls I just still talk to people who work in the local party.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2012 15:52:58 GMT -5
I've received a couple of robo calls from Newt's campaign here in AR last week. The sound quality was very poor, almost unintelligible.
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Post by floridayankee on Jan 30, 2012 9:44:01 GMT -5
Latest polls as of Sunday show a bloodbath in FL. Looks like Newt will go down in flames to the Massachusetts RINO. An NBC News/Marist poll: Romney - 42% and Gingrich - 27% A Mason-Dixon Poll: Romney - 42% and Gingrich - 31%
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