DJIA futures - another bad day tomorrow

[formerexpat]

www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

Futures for the DJIA down another 3+%. S&P the same.

Looks like Obama's speech did more to spook the market than calm it. He should probably focus more on actionable items that fix the spending issues than continue with his campaign rhetoric of taxing those that can afford it and having them pay their fair share.

It would seem the rich have paid more than their fair share in the form of evaporated net worth just due to Obama's presence in the WH.

I know I haven't enjoyed losing >$50k the past 2 weeks and that's just chump change to the wealthy out there.

[❤ mollymouser ❤]

I thought that, historically, the stock market rebounded around 10:15am on Tuesdays. (I read that somewhere today ... don't recall where.)

[handyman2]

Molly there is a lot of people hope that tuesday trend continues. However I do not think that Obama's speech today was at all helpful as Expat says it may have done more to spook them than anything. Same old, same old blathering.

[WannabeWealthy]

Aug 8, 2011 21:10:47 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

Futures for the DJIA down another 3+%. S&P the same.

Looks like Obama's speech did more to spook the market than calm it. He should probably focus more on actionable items that fix the spending issues than continue with his campaign rhetoric of taxing those that can afford it and having them pay their fair share.

Right. So what do you think the Dow will do if he comes on the TV tommorrow and says he's going to cut $10T more dollars from the government including taking away all of Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid and downsizing the military by 75%?

All you tea partiers boast about cutting spending but don't realize that the stock market is actually AGAINST this!!

-M

[formerexpat]

Right. So what do you think the Dow will do if he comes on the TV tommorrow and says he's going to cut $10T more dollars from the government including taking away all of Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid and downsizing the military by 75%?

That would be quite a trick to cut $10 Tr of spending when the Fed is spending $3.8 Tr right now.

Clearly, you are unqualified to post about this topic so refrain from name calling and leave the debate to those that can contribute.

I thought that, historically, the stock market rebounded around 10:15am on Tuesdays. (I read that somewhere today ... don't recall where.)

The market seemed like it was unsure what it was going to do the last 3 hours of the day, pretty much staying at slightly over 2% down for the day until Obama started speaking. It then sank an additional 2.8% and is down about 3% in futures trading.

[WannabeWealthy]

Aug 8, 2011 23:16:27 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

That would be quite a trick to cut $10 Tr of spending when the Fed is spending $3.8 Tr right now.

Clearly, you are unqualified to post about this topic so refrain from name calling and leave the debate to those that can contribute..

I see. Thanks for sidestepping my argument with the elitist comment.

[formerexpat]

I see. And you know more right? LOL!

I'll take stating the obvious for $2,000, Alex.

[WannabeWealthy]

Aug 8, 2011 23:20:34 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

I see. And you know more right? LOL!

I'll take stating the obvious for $2,000, Alex.

That is incorrect Formerexpat. Try again..

[formerexpat]

Thanks for sidestepping my argument with the elitist comment.

With comments like this:

All you tea partiers boast about cutting spending but don't realize

You don't warrant a response.

That and I hardly believe that a person that can't get their own financial house in order is qualified to opine on the finances of a country. You work on that first and then we'll talk. Until then, bye bye.

[❤ mollymouser ❤]

Play nice, peeps.

[WannabeWealthy]

Aug 8, 2011 23:31:44 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

That and I hardly believe that a person that can't get their own financial house in order is qualified to opine on the finances of a country. You work on that first and then we'll talk. Until then, bye bye.

Huh? WTF are you talking about? I don't have any debt other than my mortgage!

Oh well, continue to sidestep.. it makes your arguments look weak.

[moon/Laura]

Shader.. your term for the tea party is unacceptable here. clean it up or leave.

[Don Perignon]

Decades of tax breaks for the wealthy have left America's financial house in disorder... which, ironically, precipitated a bunch of empty rhetoric from the tax-evaders about "getting our financial house in order".
Once the exemptions and loopholes are eliminated, and the shirkers and evaders start paying their fair and equitable share of the tax burden, there will be order.

[Angel!]

Aug 8, 2011 21:10:47 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

I know I haven't enjoyed losing >$50k the past 2 weeks and that's just chump change to the wealthy out there.

How did it feel watching the market jump 4% today?

Apparently futures aren't always accurate. Personally, I wish the market would drop more so I can invest in some more cheap stocks.

[Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ]

How did it feel watching the market jump 4% today?


The markets had some wild swings today. Seems like it swung up and down nearly 1000 points...

[reasonfreedom]

The Feds came out and said they were going to keep the interest rate low(continuing the stagflation). Pretty much the same as coming out saying they are doing a QE3, what did you expect the market to do go down?

[Don Perignon]

Here's a clip from todays news, addressing the topic of this thread:
On today's trading (Tuesday, August 9, 2011)
"The Dow Jones industrial average gained 429.92 points, or 3.98 percent, to end at 11,239.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 53.07 points, or 4.74 percent, to 1,172.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 124.83 points, or 5.29 percent, to 2,482.52."

About 16.4 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq -- more than twice the daily average so far this year of 7.75 billion"

In light of the opening premise of this thread, which was contributed by:
"formerexpat
Associate Contributor


Joined: Dec 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,363
Karma: 62
[ Exalt ]

DJIA futures - another bad day tomorrow
« Thread Started Yesterday at 9:10pm »

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www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

Futures for the DJIA down another 3+%. S&P the same.

Looks like Obama's speech did more to spook the market than calm it "

I have to note that the author of this thread was neither accurate nor unbiased in his prognostication.
If he keeps issuing such lame forecasts (erroneous and disinformative), the erstwhile prophet will discover his credibility to be on a level with all the other partisan propaganda hacks creating whitenoise in the blogosphere... yes, and even worse than Faux Noise.

[formerexpat]

Futures for the DJIA down another 3+%. S&P the same.

Looks like Obama's speech did more to spook the market than calm it "

I have to note that the author of this thread was neither accurate nor unbiased in his prognostication.
If he keeps issuing such lame forecasts (erroneous and disinformative), the erstwhile prophet will discover his credibility to be on a level with all the other partisan propaganda hacks creating whitenoise in the blogosphere... yes, and even worse than Faux Noise.

a) when I posted, the futures were down 3%
b) the markets rallied on the news that the Fed promises to delay the inevitable and will keep rates near zero for "at least 2 years" as well as potentially inject another stimulus in the economy.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/wall-st-rebounds-as-federal-reserve-promise-soothes-nasdaq-climbs-more-than-5/articleshow/9547981.cms

I guess I should have predicted such a move since the election is less than 15 months away.

How did it feel watching the market jump 4% today?

Good until I realized the impending inflation created by the increased money supply that is going to come will inflate away that growth in a heart beat.

[formerexpat]

I guess the 4% jump in the market doesn't seem as good after reading this:

www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/dollar-falls-on-fed-pledge-to-keep-interest-rates-low-through-mid-2013.html

Maybe ignorance would be bliss. Say hello to a lower standard of living, coming to a city near you.

[fairlycrazy23]

The problem is the FED can't do anything to fix the problem, they are actually major cause of the housing boom because they kept the price of money so low for so long, actually central banks are responsible for the major of booms and a bust always follows a boom, because the central planning helps create artificial demand that then causes resources to go to places that aren't really in demand.

[Malarky]

Disregarding all the sniping on this thread and because I don't have the time/inclination to look it up myself...

Is today's surge in the stock market likely to be a result of the YM mentality of buy low and hold for the long term? Given what I learned here the last couple of years, I would have been buying today if not for an immediate need for my liquid cash.

I'm thinking that it has nothing to do with any real faith in our economy and/or government. Just a long term hope for the best/history says this will pay off in the end.

[ameiko]

Aug 8, 2011 22:36:54 GMT -5 WannabeWealthy said:

Aug 8, 2011 21:10:47 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

Futures for the DJIA down another 3+%. S&P the same.

Looks like Obama's speech did more to spook the market than calm it. He should probably focus more on actionable items that fix the spending issues than continue with his campaign rhetoric of taxing those that can afford it and having them pay their fair share.

Right. So what do you think the Dow will do if he comes on the TV tommorrow and says he's going to cut $10T more dollars from the government including taking away all of Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid and downsizing the military by 75%?

All you tea partiers boast about cutting spending but don't realize that the stock market is actually AGAINST this!!

-M

I wasn't aware that the Tea Party was calling for such cuts, at least in those areas.

That said, SS and Medicare will need cuts, probably in the firm of increased age requirements. Restricting eye of life care to non heroic measures might help as well. Not even the Tea Party I think (and remember, they are more a collection of people than a collective) wants SS and Medicare fully killed if only because so many have paid into it and it is avaliable to all seniors.

As for Medicaid, yeah I could see it being phased out and good riddances!

As for defense, the Tea Party isn't that vocal on defense cuts but I suspect most wouldn't mind less adventures abroad (which is something that both parties tend to do).

[ameiko]

Aug 9, 2011 15:27:56 GMT -5 Don Perignon said:

Decades of tax breaks for the wealthy have left America's financial house in disorder... which, ironically, precipitated a bunch of empty rhetoric from the tax-evaders about "getting our financial house in order".
Once the exemptions and loopholes are eliminated, and the shirkers and evaders start paying their fair and equitable share of the tax burden, there will be order.

Typical ignorance.

Please, tell us how letting people keep more of their wealth led to the Great Recession.

Please explain how the Bush tax cuts, after which revenues reversed the trend of declining government revenue and instead revenue SURGED led to the Great Recession.

Please, illuminate us how the not penalizing producers lead to Obama's ACORN to strong arm banks to make bad loans to people who could never pay them back.

PLEASE SPEAK SO WE MAY BE ENLIGHTENED!!!!

BTW, the wealthy already pay most of the taxes; really how much more do you want of it and why are you so lazy that you will not seek to create your own instead of stealing it from someone else, using the government as your enforcer?

[Don Perignon]

In other words: "Pity the poor victimized wealthy people! Woe! Alas! The burdens of Privilege and Wealth lie heavy on their shoulders!"

What a joke.

[Politically_Incorrect12]

Aug 8, 2011 22:36:54 GMT -5 WannabeWealthy said:

Aug 8, 2011 21:10:47 GMT -5 formerexpat said:

www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

Futures for the DJIA down another 3+%. S&P the same.

Looks like Obama's speech did more to spook the market than calm it. He should probably focus more on actionable items that fix the spending issues than continue with his campaign rhetoric of taxing those that can afford it and having them pay their fair share.

Right. So what do you think the Dow will do if he comes on the TV tommorrow and says he's going to cut $10T more dollars from the government including taking away all of Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid and downsizing the military by 75%?

All you tea partiers boast about cutting spending but don't realize that the stock market is actually AGAINST this!!

-M

When you artificially prop up certain things, eventually the bubble burst and yes, causes the artificial value in those particular stocks (and industries) to fall. It's one of those things where cuts are needed, and we take a lot of pain now or we slowly pull the band aid off to take slightly less pain over a longer period of time. While I do think we need to work on controlling and cutting spending, I will agree that doing it too quickly may not be the best option. Similar to raising the age of SS eligibility, you do it over time. There are many possible options to doing this, none of which are pleasant. For example,

1. Cut spending to a certain percentage of expected income (i.e. 80%). Use the other 20% as a buffer if income doesn't meet expectations, use any extra to pay the down down to an acceptable level and once that is reached, build up a Federal Emergency Fund to be used when unexpected things (or at least as unexpected as can be) such as wars, disasters, etc pop up. Again, we are back to politicians not really showing they are able or care about balancing a budget.

2. Freeze all current levels of government spending until our spending/debt equals a certain percentage of GDP. No new programs unless you can cut from another program to get the money. Of course politicians haven't really shown they can or even care about balancing the federal checkbook, and it wouldn't be followed anyway.

3. Stop COLA increases on federal programs...unfortunately, while in the long run this will decrease the amount of money, it will also hurt those who actually need it in the future. Maybe do something along the lines of the amount you get when you first start the program is where you are locked into it. Doing something like this may make people want to hold off longer on such programs as SS, but again it also comes with its own set of issues.

4. Tell all of Congress and the President/VP/etc. that for every $500 billion of actual surplus we have (no accounting tricks and there would need to be some group to verify this), they get $200k of salary. Of course in this case, those who are already wealthy wouldn't necessarily care as much about a paycheck as those who are not wealthy and we end up with the wealthy holding out to get what they want, while those not in the same boat (along with their constituents) get the shaft.

There are many other examples that can be found I'm sure, we just need to figure out the best route to take and how to take it. I left out the taxes argument, not because I disagree with some of the ideas like getting rid of deductions in return to lowering all tax brackets (although I think they will sneak back up in the future)...there are multiple ideas to be considered. I am sure there are also many other issues that can be found in the very quick examples I posted above. One thing is for certain, something needs to be done.

[verrip1]

Is today's surge in the stock market likely to be a result of the YM mentality of buy low and hold for the long term?

No, because buy and holders (by definition) would not be trading because of the recent market volatility.

Given what I learned here the last couple of years, I would have been buying today if not for an immediate need for my liquid cash.

I think it would have been a great time to add to equity holdings, too.

I'm thinking that it has nothing to do with any real faith in our economy and/or government.

No, I think that confidence had something to do with it. I just have no idea how big an impact it was. Some investment professionals argue that sudden drops like this are significantly emotional, and tend to drag the innately fearful investors to sell out at the bottom.

[Malarky]

Thanks for the answers. It will be interesting to see what today will bring.
Off to another day in the working world.

[WannabeWealthy]

Aug 9, 2011 21:54:05 GMT -5 ameiko said:

Please, tell us how letting people keep more of their wealth led to the Great Recession.

Please explain how the Bush tax cuts, after which revenues reversed the trend of declining government revenue and instead revenue SURGED led to the Great Recession.

The problem is that when the Bush Tax Cuts were passed, that took away revenue from the US government. At the same time, Bush tried to fund 2 wars that were costing us trillions.

It's the equivalent of getting a pay cut and then running up your credit card at the same time.

-M

[privateinvestor]

Aug 10, 2011 23:49:37 GMT -5 WannabeWealthy said:

Aug 9, 2011 21:54:05 GMT -5 ameiko said:

Please, tell us how letting people keep more of their wealth led to the Great Recession.

Please explain how the Bush tax cuts, after which revenues reversed the trend of declining government revenue and instead revenue SURGED led to the Great Recession.

The problem is that when the Bush Tax Cuts were passed, that took away revenue from the US government. At the same time, Bush tried to fund 2 wars that were costing us trillions.

It's the equivalent of getting a pay cut and then running up your credit card at the same time.

-M

And what’s worse is that the conclusion is flawed because the assumption—namely, that the Bush tax cuts cost the U.S. needed revenue—is incorrect. In sharp contrast, since they went into effect in ’04, statistics from the Office of Management and Budget show, the Bush tax cuts actually generated considerable revenue and sometimes in record amounts.

According to the Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2007 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2006, pp. 25-26, Table 1.3, January 16, 2007), with final 2006 revenue figures added in, there was an inflation-adjusted, 20% tax revenue increase between 2004 and ’06 and this represents the largest two-year revenue surge since 1965-67.

The obvious follow-up question is, of course, why did the U.S. budget suddenly go from a surplus in 1998-2001 to a $247 billion deficit in 2006. But, as economist Brian Reidl of the Heritage Foundation noted, “This argument ignores the historic spending increases that pushed federal spending up from 18.5% of GDP in 2001 to 20.2% in 2006. ( Brian M. Riedl, "Federal Spending: By the Numbers," Heritage Foundation WebMemo No. 989, February 2006.)
www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45382