Sea Levels Rising: Fastest Rate In 2,100 Years

[lakhota]

Sea Levels Rising At Fastest Rate In 2,100 Years: Study

WASHINGTON -- Sea level has been rising significantly over the past century of global warming, according to a study that offers the most detailed look yet at the changes in ocean levels during the last 2,100 years.

The researchers found that since the late 19th century – as the world became industrialized – sea level has risen more than 2 millimeters per year, on average. That's a bit less than one-tenth of an inch, but it adds up over time.

It will lead to land loss, more flooding and saltwater invading bodies of fresh water, said lead researcher Benjamin Horton whose team examined sediment from North Carolina's Outer Banks. He directs the Sea Level Research Laboratory at the University of Pennsylvania.

The predicted effects he cites aren't new and are predicted by many climate scientists. But outside experts say the research verifies increasing sea level rise compared to previous centuries.

Kenneth Miller, chairman of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers University, called the new report significant.

"This is a very important contribution because it firmly establishes that the rise in sea level in the 20th century is unprecedented for the recent geologic past," said Miller, who was not part of the research team. Miller said he recently advised New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie that the state needs to plan for a sea level rise of about 3 feet by the end of the century.

Horton said rising temperatures are the reason behind the higher sea level.

Looking back in history, the researchers found that sea level was relatively stable from 100 B.C. to A.D. 950. Then, during a warm climate period beginning in the 11th century, sea level rose by about half a millimeter per year for 400 years. That was followed by a second period of stable sea level associated with a cooler period, known as the Little Ice Age, which persisted until the late 19th century.

Rising sea levels are among the hazards that concern environmentalists and governments with increasing global temperatures caused by "greenhouse" gases like carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels like coal and oil over the last century or so.

Although melting icebergs floating on the sea won't change sea level, there are millions of tons of ice piled up on land in Greenland, Antarctica and elsewhere. Melting that ice would have a major impact by raising ocean levels.

The result could include flooding in highly populated coastal cities and greater storm damage in oceanfront communities.

While the new study does not predict the future, Horton pointed out that it does show "there is a very close link between sea level and temperature. So for the 21st century when temperatures will rise, so will sea level."

Two of his co-authors calculated in an earlier paper that sea level could rise by between 30 and 75 inches by the end of this century. And it might even rise faster than that, Martin Vermeer of Aalto University in Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact reported in 2009.

"Accurate estimates of past sea-level variability provide a context for such projections," co-author Andrew Kemp of Yale University's Climate and Energy Institute said in a statement.

Horton's team studied sediment cores from salt marshes at Sand Point and Tump Point on the North Carolina coast to develop their calculations of sea-level change over the two millennia. They analyzed microfossils in the cores and the age of the cores was estimated using radiocarbon dating and other methods.

For the years since tide gauges have been installed, those findings closely track the results from the study, the researchers noted. The study is being published in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

While Horton's report is the first to produce a continuous record of the past 2,000 years "other studies show similar changes, especially concerning the acceleration in sea level rise in the 20th century," Miller said.

www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/22/sea-levels-rising-at-fast_n_882654.html

[Virgil Showlion]

The researchers found that since the late 19th century – as the world became industrialized – sea level has risen more than 2 millimeters per year, on average. That's a bit less than one-tenth of an inch, but it adds up over time.

2 mm/year x 90 years = 180 mm = 7 inches

Miller, who was not part of the research team, said he recently advised New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie that the state needs to plan for a sea level rise of about 3 feet by the end of the century.

3 feet = 36 inches

No doubt there's some hockey stick explanation for why the latter figure is overshot by 414%. Probably from the same models that brought us the mythic "50 million climate refugees by 2010".

Two of his co-authors calculated in an earlier paper that sea level could rise by between 30 and 75 inches by the end of this century.

75 inches. So only 1,070% the average rate observed over the last 120 years. Perhaps due to the pieces of sky breaking off and displacing huge quantities of seawater when they hit the ocean.

And it might even rise faster than that, Martin Vermeer of Aalto University in Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact reported in 2009.

Our eighteenth-generation models predict a million bajillion millimeters per year oh please renew our grant please please please please.

I'm trying not to be skeptical here. I really am.

[hello fromWarsaw]

Pubs know better than science

[Mad Dawg Wiccan]

Science knows better than Libs.

[Virgil Showlion]

I'm not a Republican. And non-sequiturs are non-sequiturs.

I don't question the validity of their data. Just their liberties in extrapolation. You might have noticed that of all the studies they list, the estimates drop from 2009 to 2010, again from 2010 to 2011, and then again for the most recent study.

[Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ]

I was just reading an article in the south Jersey weekly I subscribe, and they were discussing fossil finds in south Jersey. They also said nearly all of southern New Jersey was covered by water millions of years ago, based on the fossil finds.

[❤ mollymouser ❤]

Jun 23, 2011 2:22:10 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

The researchers found that since the late 19th century – as the world became industrialized – sea level has risen more than 2 millimeters per year, on average. That's a bit less than one-tenth of an inch, but it adds up over time.

2 mm/year x 90 years = 180 mm = 7 inches


3 feet = 36 inches

No doubt there's some hockey stick explanation for why the latter figure is overshot by 414%. Probably from the same models that brought us the mythic "50 million climate refugees by 2010".

75 inches. So only 1,070% the average rate observed over the last 120 years. Perhaps due to the pieces of sky breaking off and displacing huge quantities of seawater when they hit the ocean.

And it might even rise faster than that, Martin Vermeer of Aalto University in Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact reported in 2009.

Our eighteenth-generation models predict a million bajillion millimeters per year oh please renew our grant please please please please.

I'm trying not to be skeptical here. I really am.

Perhaps MATH isn't their strong suit?

[Value Buy]

Quote
Looking back in history, the researchers found that sea level was relatively stable from 100 B.C. to A.D. 950. Then, during a warm climate period beginning in the 11th century, sea level rose by about half a millimeter per year for 400 years. That was followed by a second period of stable sea level associated with a cooler period, known as the Little Ice Age, which persisted until the late 19th century.

Rising sea levels are among the hazards that concern environmentalists and governments with increasing global temperatures caused by "greenhouse" gases like carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels like coal and oil over the last century or so.
endquote

Before Christ. Darn pesky humans. Even before Christ they were polluting the world to the max.
Can anyone tell me, what was the human population total back then?
Somehow, I do not think Humans were the reason for global warming.
I will give you the fact, our population total of the the last two centuries have added to global warming, but before then, we were not worse than the wild animal herds of Africa and America, with all their methane gas releases.......

[Value Buy]

Jun 23, 2011 6:29:32 GMT -5 Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ said:

I was just reading an article in the south Jersey weekly I subscribe, and they were discussing fossil finds in south Jersey. They also said nearly all of southern New Jersey was covered by water millions of years ago, based on the fossil finds.

Chicago Illinois is actually an ancient ocean bed. When they do deep escavations in burrow pits, the fossil finds are quite interesting.
Universities are always visiting taking samples, etc.

[handyman2]

A new lever to be used by the global warmists. one thing I have never understood about the global warming thing. During the little ice age history teaches us that more people died from bad air due to the fact that every household and business burned large amounts of coal to heat, cook and drive industry. There are written accounts of hundreds dying in European cities from stagnate air and even here in the US the cities were covered in black grime and breathing issues were rampent. Just a common sense observation tells me that the air we breath is a lot cleaner than during the past centuries so how do they arrive at their conclusions?

[wyouser]

We too in this corner of Wyoming were once under water too (Current elevation 4400 ft)

[floridayankee]

Jun 23, 2011 12:15:53 GMT -5 wyouser said:

We too in this corner of Wyoming were once under water too (Current elevation 4400 ft)

Better go green now. With water levels predicted to rise 75 inches / century, you guys will be screwed in 70 thousand years...give or take a century or four.

Think of the children damnit!!!

[deziloooooo]

I am thinking say 100 years from now..where are we , and naturally the creep over the next 100..when does it affect our coast line..New Orleons, Florida, the Netherlands, California, LA area, the Carolinas..the extra high tides, the storm surges , just our normal weather patterns, the hurricanes that come ashore...

not the 70,000 year problems....

[EVT1]

See you down in Arizona Bay- learn to swim.

[Deleted]

Sea Levels Rising

Maybe the illegals have started swimming into the U.S. & they have raised sea levels.

Of course if someone yelled "Who pee'd in the ocean" & everyone on earth raised their hand we might have another answer to the problem.

[holyofholes]

So guys, tell me something. Let's say global warming is not caused by humans. Fine, but what's the harm in going green? It's far cheaper to take public transportation and drive smaller cars, and not to have McMansions. Why borrow up to the hilt to just screw with the climate?

[formerexpat]

So you're saying that in 50,000 years, Ancient Ephesus can become a major port city again? I was there a few years back and the water is so much further away than it was 2,000 years ago.

One of the dumbest things to do statistically is to assume a linear progression of something that isn't understood; like the increase and decrease in sea levels.

[holyofholes]

Increase or decrease in sea levels are not understood? What's your area of specialty?

[formerexpat]

Increase or decrease in sea levels are not understood? What's your area of specialty?

80% of everything, 100% of nothing.

Scientists cannot accurately predict the effect that El Nino has on sea levels, as just one example that is relevant here in the US. So how could they predict the impact that this supposed global warming will have on sea levels if there are other variables that materially affect the equation?

Stupid statistics are thrown out like 60% of people in the world live within 40 miles of water - well, yeah, no shit; that's kind of been the whole reason behind the expansion of the human race. For the entirety of the human race - people have migrated when climates changed to their advantage or disadvantage.

People are foolish to believe they can control the weather? How about we all get out and dance together to please the weather gods?

[Mad Dawg Wiccan]

What's your area of specialty?

Geology.

Increase or decrease in sea levels are not understood?

Apparently not by you. All of the Earth's oceans are connected, so if the sea level rises or drops in one area (excluding tidal variations), it also has to drop/rise in all the rest. This has not happened.
A "rise" in sea levels in coastal areas can be more easily explained by the ground level sinking due to subsidence rather than to the water level rising.

[lakhota]

A "rise" in sea levels in coastal areas can be more easily explained by the ground level sinking due to subsidence rather than to the water level rising.

Yeah, all that global warming melt is causing the plates to sink.

[Virgil Showlion]

Fine, but what's the harm in going green? It's far cheaper to take public transportation and drive smaller cars, and not to have McMansions. Why borrow up to the hilt to just screw with the climate?

This is an excellent point. (Back from exile, even.)

I have no problem whatsoever with going green. I do have a problem with governments diverting funds from genuine environmental initiatives (heavy metal scrubbers, wetlands protection, recycling, low-impact agriculture, etc.) in order to fund initiatives whose primary purpose (or only purpose) is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. I also have a major problem with carbon credits. And carbon credits, no matter how utterly discredited, is where an unfathomable amount of money is trying to make sure "going green" ends up.

Other than that, the greener you are, the more kudos I give you.

ETA: I should also note that ecocentrism--the belief that human well-being should be secondary to the well-being of the planet or the "Gaia"--is also in my cross-hairs.

Anthrocentrism envisions greening as means to sustain an ecosystem that will support humans.

Ecocentrism stipulates that humans are secondary or irrelevant. In some extreme cases, humans are considered to be parasitic. Ecocentrism is really nothing more than an unorthodox manifestation of fear and selfishness, but sometimes people embrace its philosophies because they don't grasp the connection.