Stock Pick of the Week - W.E. 29 Apr. 2011

[rovo]

Rules:
1. Selection must be made prior to the opening bell on the first trading day of the week.
2. Selection may be changed up to the opening bell.
3. Starting price is the opening price on first trading day of week.
4. Ending price is closing price on last trading day of week.
5. No options or complex trading vehicles. Only stocks and ETFs.

To enter the game:
List your stock's symbol, Long or Short, Company name, what the company does and why you like the selection.


Congratulations to last week's winner -- yclept

[ModE98]

CWS (long) this week. China Wing Systems just received some follow-on solar sub-frame orders after successful test runs. Not najor headline news, but shows progress.

finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Wind-Systems-Receives-prnews-2342043447.html?x=0&.v=1

[burger]

AGQ (2x silver ETF). This thing has been going gangbusters lately and I've been too chicken to get back in. Maybe me picking it will get it to drop some so I can have the courage to buy.

[Driftr]

Oh man. I was gona capitulate and do SLV (1x). Not gonna do that knowing I can't win unless basically everything else tanks and noone goes short. I suppose I'll just try and cash in on any dip buyers of PFE.

So my pick will be PFE long.

[Value Buy]

I think I will wait until 8:29 am Monday morning, so I do not get killed by a gap up or gap down this time.

[rovo]

Value Buy, There is no problem making a last minute change to a pick. Who knows what Monday morning will look like at this point.

[tyfighter3]

WLL long.

[yclept]

ZSTN long
This is a really risky one. It all depends upon whether the accounting data is true or not. If true, it looks very undervalued:

P/E 1.41
PEG NA
Price/Revenue 0.23
Price/Cash Flow 1.40
Price/Book (MRQ) 0.43
ROA 34.73%
ROE 36.94%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 12.61
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter

However a couple of law firms have announced they are starting an investigation into potential fraudulent filings with the SEC. I find it particularly amusing that one of the law firms in Colorado wants to hear from people who have lost more than $100K on this stock -- reckon their professional ethics preclude representing any but the very rich, since one would have to be very rich ($100k being an insignificant proportion of the portfolio) or very stupid to have placed a big enough bet on this stock to have lost that much. The investigations are spurred by two articles by the same author at Seeking Alpha alleging that this company reports much higher revenues, etc. to the SEC than to the SAIC -- whose definition in the Seeking Alpha article is as follows:

State Administration of Industry and Commerce, or SAIC. Unlike what many Chinese small-cap stock promoters would like the investors to believe -- those Chinese companies only file SAIC reports for the purpose of maintaining business licenses and thus the data may not be accurate -- I argue that telling the truth is the default action a business takes if the purpose is just that simple.

An equally valid explanation would be that since the SAIC report seems to have little significance, companies throw any data they have at hand at them without worrying about whether it is distorted or incomplete. I can remember times in my career when applications for various permits and such required nothing more than to submit enough evidence to demonstrate that the requester (us) was real and had a valid need for the BATF explosives permit, or whatever the license was -- you just gave them enough to demonstrate that one was not a loony in a one-room cabin in the wilds of Montana. The SAIC sounds like one of those kinds of government bureaus to me.
So, the question is whether the stock is a fraud or the commentator (who discloses a vested short interest) is a liar. Then there is the factor of the J.D. liars announcing their investigations which we can only assume might lead to lawsuits. Those announcements drove the stock price down, thus causing the majority of the losses incurred by present shareholders. The announcements of the investigations aggravated what had been relatively minor losses for current owners into horrendous losses. And should the suits go forward, the lawyers will take the majority of any money recovered as fees, and thus have a vested interest in making the losses as large as possible.
Finally, there's the market. The market holds truth at arms length. It is a balance, not a scale. This stock took a terrible beating on Friday. Will more people see that as the the coups de grace and leave it to bleed out, or will more people see it as a massive overreaction to some pretty flimsy accusations? Will they buy it or will they sell it? Will they not buy it or stop selling it? Whatever they do, I think it will soon be explosive.
I don't own this stock, but will be watching closely Monday morning. If it gaps back up, I'll probably leave it alone. If it continues to drop off the cliff, I will do likewise. If it opens about even and starts to rise, I'll probably buy a small position.

I think the TSTC I used last week would be a much safer pick and is likely to continue to rise substantially. But I think ZSTN will be more fun -- cowpies, diesel oil and 1/4 stick dynamite initiators -- what could ever be more fun? Be sure to wear a broad-brimmed hat.

[uncle23]

.....

CPST.............long


short term swing.....

[clarkrl2]

short CMA (Comerica Inc. - Midwest Banks)

Another stock that has fallen below trendline support. If this week goes like last it will likely be the last short in a series. That means I'll need to dig up my mojo bone for picking longs. It would be utterly foolish to use the same mojo for longs as shorts.

[2kids10horses]

I'm gonna try TQQQ this week before Rovo throws his jockey on his back. TQQQ is the 3x QQQ index. Earnings appear to be strong, so I think it probably has a little way to go. Even though May is on the way!

2k10h

[Value Buy]

Let's go with Barrick gold, ABX, and play it long this week.

[mtntigger]

I'm going with Honda (HMC). It started bouncing back up a couple of weeks ago and I think it has quite a ways to go.

[Bluerobin]

I am going back to those funny little shoes, CROX, long. After all, it is their season and Crabby mentioned she has to get her spring Crocs.

[architecto25]

VVUS (Vivus Inc.) Long. repeat the symbol: V V U S
(sometimes reads like a "w")
Closed Thursday at $7.56. 52 wk. high/low $13.68/$4.69
It's a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development of
therapeutic products for large underserved markets.
Mountain View, CA.; 43 employees.
chart trend: UP for how long? We'll look at it on Friday.... LOL

[rovo]

SBS, Is that a long on Honda?

[rovo]

I'm going to pick F, Ford, Long for this week. They report earnings tomorrow and I'm just taking a guess and assuming they meet or beat earnings. F missed the expectations in Q4 so there is some concern about Q1.

Ford currently has a PE of 9.73 for trailing 12 months so there is room to expand the multiple. Also, I think Ford may have gained some sales due to the disaster in Japan. The recent recall of about 1.2M F150 pick-up trucks will hurt earnings but I expect most of the costs will be in Q2.

Disclosure: I have a substantial position in Ford shares.

[yclept]

disclosure: bought 1400 ZSTN @ 3.03; this ain't the type of thing on which I'm willing to bet the farm, but maybe a small corner of the garden.

Edit: Hah! Looks like I plucked that one at almost the daily high -- I thought I had something on my line, and hoped it was a nice fish -- looks like it was just a big tangle of weeds. Maybe tomorrow!

[rovo]

Here are the selections and opening prices:

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] ZSTN [/td][td] $2.75 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CWS [/td][td] $2.55 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 2kids10horses [/td][td] L [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $89.23 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] CPST [/td][td] $1.84 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] F [/td][td] $15.51 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQ [/td][td] $54.80 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D.I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] SEB [/td][td] $2,360.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Value Buy [/td][td] L [/td][td] ABX [/td][td] $54.15 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] AGQ [/td][td] $362.62 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] bluerobin [/td][td] L [/td][td] CROX [/td][td] $20.41 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Driftr [/td][td] L [/td][td] PFE [/td][td] $19.95 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] S [/td][td] CMA [/td][td] $36.39 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] VVUS [/td][td] $7.56 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] HMC [/td][td] $37.59 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] tyfighter3 [/td][td] L [/td][td] WLL [/td][td] $72.49 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

I'm assuming SBS wanted to go long based upon the comments in her post.

[mtntigger]

Oops! Sorry about that, yes it was long.

[ModE98]

Horse looks like it turned around and is running back to the gate. How embarassing Will see if the whip will get it motivated. Appears like a lost cause.

[rovo]

I'm not sure we should allow any horse to wear ugly plastic shoes .... but until we decide I suppose we have to list bluerobin in first place.

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] bluerobin [/td][td] L [/td][td] CROX [/td][td] $20.41 [/td][td] $21.01 [/td][td] 2.94% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] ZSTN [/td][td] $2.75 [/td][td] $2.82 [/td][td] 2.55% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Driftr [/td][td] L [/td][td] PFE [/td][td] $19.95 [/td][td] $20.14 [/td][td] 0.95% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D.I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] SEB [/td][td] $2,360.00 [/td][td] $2,380.00 [/td][td] 0.85% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] HMC [/td][td] $37.59 [/td][td] $37.83 [/td][td] 0.64% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 2kids10horses [/td][td] L [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $89.23 [/td][td] $89.57 [/td][td] 0.38% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] tyfighter3 [/td][td] L [/td][td] WLL [/td][td] $72.49 [/td][td] $72.67 [/td][td] 0.25% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] F [/td][td] $15.51 [/td][td] $15.54 [/td][td] 0.19% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQ [/td][td] $58.40 [/td][td] $58.49 [/td][td] 0.15% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] S [/td][td] CMA [/td][td] $36.39 [/td][td] $36.39 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] VVUS [/td][td] $7.56 [/td][td] $7.45 [/td][td] -1.46% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] CPST [/td][td] $1.84 [/td][td] $1.80 [/td][td] -2.17% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CWS [/td][td] $2.55 [/td][td] $2.46 [/td][td] -3.53% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Value Buy [/td][td] L [/td][td] ABX [/td][td] $54.15 [/td][td] $51.86 [/td][td] -4.23% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] AGQ [/td][td] $362.62 [/td][td] $344.75 [/td][td] -4.93% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

[Bluerobin]

Rovo, take it easy on me. It is a first this year, and it won't last! Yes, we are going out to eat, then Crabby is going for her Crocs.

[mtntigger]

I found a picture of Blue's horse taking a rest after a long day at the track...

[rovo]

Now THAT is funny.

[Bluerobin]

Can't be my horse, he'd be having a smoke, so he can fade in the stretch!

[Value Buy]

Can I pick em, or what?
ABX was a lock for upside this week, then they announce an aquisition of all things, a copper mine in Australia, and everyone dumps them, and now downgrades coming.
Should have stuck with a short on this one. Maybe I will buy some in real life at around $46.
Definitly should have stayed with a short on last week's short, Mexican Chipolte Grill

[ModE98]

I dislike muddy tracks! Too much slop thrown up by those ahead. Horse just not a mudder

[rovo]

yclept lost his footing and 2&10 and Driftr moved up to give bluerobin a chase.

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] bluerobin [/td][td] L [/td][td] CROX [/td][td] $20.41 [/td][td] $21.09 [/td][td] 3.33% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 2kids10horses [/td][td] L [/td][td] TQQQ [/td][td] $89.23 [/td][td] $91.11 [/td][td] 2.11% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Driftr [/td][td] L [/td][td] PFE [/td][td] $19.95 [/td][td] $20.19 [/td][td] 1.20% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] F [/td][td] $15.51 [/td][td] $15.66 [/td][td] 0.97% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQ [/td][td] $58.40 [/td][td] $58.82 [/td][td] 0.72% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D.I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] SEB [/td][td] $2,360.00 [/td][td] $2,375.00 [/td][td] 0.64% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] tyfighter3 [/td][td] L [/td][td] WLL [/td][td] $72.49 [/td][td] $72.78 [/td][td] 0.40% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] HMC [/td][td] $37.59 [/td][td] $37.61 [/td][td] 0.05% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] VVUS [/td][td] $7.56 [/td][td] $7.43 [/td][td] -1.72% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] S [/td][td] CMA [/td][td] $36.39 [/td][td] $37.13 [/td][td] -2.03% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] CPST [/td][td] $1.84 [/td][td] $1.78 [/td][td] -3.26% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CWS [/td][td] $2.55 [/td][td] $2.41 [/td][td] -5.49% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] ZSTN [/td][td] $2.75 [/td][td] $2.57 [/td][td] -6.55% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Value Buy [/td][td] L [/td][td] ABX [/td][td] $54.15 [/td][td] $50.19 [/td][td] -7.31% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] AGQ [/td][td] $362.62 [/td][td] $318.44 [/td][td] -12.18% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

[burger]

Um, I think I meant to go short instead of long on silver. Glad I didn't buy into AGQ, but wish I had bought ZSL.