Stock Pick of the Week - W.E. 22 Apr. 2011

[rovo]

Rules:
1. Selection must be made prior to the opening bell on the first trading day of the week.
2. Selection may be changed up to the opening bell.
3. Starting price is the opening price on first trading day of week.
4. Ending price is closing price on last trading day of week.
5. No options or complex trading vehicles. Only stocks and ETFs.

To enter the game:
List your stock's symbol, Long or Short, Company name, what the company does and why you like the selection.


Congratulations to last week's winner -- yclept

[ModE98]

Will stick with the same horse this week....... CNIT (long) China Information Technologies. I know that the China small caps are under pressure. I'm just a glutton for punishment, it seems.

[uncle23]

.....

EMC..... long


I like the chart....


Congratulations ....yclept..!

[yclept]

TSTC long

P/E 2.22
PEG 0.12
Price/Revenue 0.47
Price/Cash Flow 2.47
Price/Book (MRQ) 0.53
ROA 14.02%
ROE 27.43%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.90
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.08
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter

My "quick-kills" screen (based primarily on very low RSI) can't find anything, but TSTC (which I already own) is not just a fundamental value play, but is becoming oversold to the point where it's almost meeting the quick-kill criteria. Just looking at at the published data leads me to believe the stock is significantly undervalued and should move up. Whether the data is true or not, I guess is the question, but unlike lots of the small-cap Chinese stocks under attack, there is little comment on this one. Most of what appears on bulletin boards is pure mush-mouth idiocy, so no one who appears knowledgeable about it bothers to post, or maybe there's just no one who knows anything. Only one analyst follows it, so one cannot even get a consensus of idiots.

Who knows? I'm tempted to go short with some leveraged ETF -- but can't convince myself it's time for that yet. In real life, I'm still much more heavily cash than is usual for me.

[clarkrl2]

short DIS (Disney Corp. - Entertainment)

One of many large cap stocks where the price<5 sma <15 sma <50 sma. In fact there were 61 in the S&P 500 that met that condition. I don't really believe we'll see a deep and prolonged correction but DIS broke below trendline support so I'll try being short for at least one more week.

[Value Buy]

CMG Chipolte Mexican Grill
Short this thing to oblivion......

Record high last week $285 a share........reports Wednesday, will probably be good numbers, but with retail Gasoline at $4.00 a gallon and up, some restaurant chain has to start collapsing, so let it be CMG.
Hopefully the professional traders will knock it down later this week.

I cannot be wrong every week, so let's hope I break my streak......

[rovo]

Value Buy: I cannot be wrong every week, so let's hope I break my streak......

Oh yes you can! Most all of us have streaks of bad picks. ;D

[uncle23]

....

the trick is to make money when you're wrong and make more money whwen you're right... ;D

[ModE98]

Uncle, yes a very great trick if one could really pull that one off. If you have the secret formula, PLEASE post it

[uncle23]

....

ModE...........i'm still working on it....... ;D



04/18/2011....i think i figured it out.....be a paid financial advisor with bonus tied to performance......

[architecto25]

IRWD (Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc.) (Long).
Closed Friday at $16.05
52 week high/low ($16.49/$8.90)
Reason I like it: "I think it'll be higher on Friday" (err.THURSDAY)
Perhaps more information Monday or Tuesday....when I'm not so sleepy.

I forgot; markets are closed Friday.

[burger]

Long CP. No real good reason. My Dad worked for the company for about 40 years and they report earnings this week. I look at it this way...I can't do any worse than I have been.

[mtntigger]

Long TNK (Teekay Tankers).

[Bluerobin]

I am going with FTR, Short. They are going through growing pains after having acquired many Verizon locations.

[rovo]

Don't forget, we have a short week as the markets are closed on Friday.

[rovo]

I'm going to go LONG with AAPL for this week. Earnings are due to be reported on 20 April and the consensus is $5.36 per share for the quarter. The stock is currently trading at around $328 against the recent high of $364.90. PE on Friday's close of $327.46 is 18.28 and this is low for AAPL.

Disclosure: I'm holding some AAPL shares.

[2kids10horses]

I'm going back to Long on URTY, the 3x Russell 2000. With the big gap down at the start today, I might capture the bounce.

[Driftr]

I'll try GLL here because I don't have the guts to try it for real. The 2x short gold ETF.

[rovo]

Here are the selections and opening prices for this week's game. Please check your selection for accuracy.

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] TSTC [/td][td] $5.05 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] S [/td][td] DIS [/td][td] $40.97 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] IRWD [/td][td] $15.96 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] AAPL [/td][td] $326.10 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 2kids10horses [/td][td] L [/td][td] URTY [/td][td] $89.70 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQ [/td][td] $56.09 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D.I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] OFC [/td][td] $34.85 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] bluerobin [/td][td] S [/td][td] FTR [/td][td] $8.05 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CNIT [/td][td] $2.40 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] EMC [/td][td] $26.39 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Driftr [/td][td] L [/td][td] GLL [/td][td] $24.77 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] CP [/td][td] $62.43 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Value Buy [/td][td] S [/td][td] CMG [/td][td] $282.06 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] TNK [/td][td] $10.54 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] -100.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

[yclept]

Hmph.
TSTC was really flying earlier in the day, but it's falling back down again. My real position is still underwater, and I fell prey to that heinous error that the price one originally paid has some relevance to the prospects of a stock moving forward. It's just plain stupid of me. Take the money and run would have been a good idea on this one today -- could have bought back in tomorrow morning and I would have had today's scalp hanging outside my tepee. Stupid. It's all fear based, and I know it. Stupid.
The only saving grace (or confusing aspect) is that I would have bought more of it at any price it reached today -- it's still on the screen that picked it, the fundamentals are unchanged and still greatly undervalued -- would have bought more except position sizing strategy dictates that I have enough of it already.

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

[rovo]

Yclept has lately been showing us how this game is to be played. Mod E is fast and furious out of the gate but can he finish at or near the top?

Player

L or S

Symbol

$ Open

$ Close

% Close

[/b][/tr]
[tr][td] yclept [/td][td] L [/td][td] TSTC [/td][td] $5.05 [/td][td] $5.84 [/td][td] 15.60% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] ModE [/td][td] L [/td][td] CNIT [/td][td] $2.40 [/td][td] $2.56 [/td][td] 6.67% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] rovo [/td][td] L [/td][td] AAPL [/td][td] $326.10 [/td][td] $331.85 [/td][td] 1.76% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] bluerobin [/td][td] S [/td][td] FTR [/td][td] $8.05 [/td][td] $7.97 [/td][td] 0.99% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] D.I. [/td][td] L [/td][td] OFC [/td][td] $34.85 [/td][td] $35.07 [/td][td] 0.63% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] uncle.23 [/td][td] L [/td][td] EMC [/td][td] $26.39 [/td][td] $26.55 [/td][td] 0.61% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] BenchMark [/td][td] L [/td][td] QQQ [/td][td] $56.09 [/td][td] $56.25 [/td][td] 0.29% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 2kids10horses [/td][td] L [/td][td] URTY [/td][td] $89.70 [/td][td] $89.65 [/td][td] -0.06% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Value Buy [/td][td] S [/td][td] CMG [/td][td] $282.06 [/td][td] $283.37 [/td][td] -0.46% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] clarkrl2 [/td][td] S [/td][td] DIS [/td][td] $40.97 [/td][td] $41.20 [/td][td] -0.56% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] burger [/td][td] L [/td][td] CP [/td][td] $62.43 [/td][td] $62.06 [/td][td] -0.59% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Driftr [/td][td] L [/td][td] GLL [/td][td] $24.77 [/td][td] $24.53 [/td][td] -0.97% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] architecto25 [/td][td] L [/td][td] IRWD [/td][td] $15.96 [/td][td] $15.40 [/td][td] -3.51% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] SlowbutSure [/td][td] L [/td][td] TNK [/td][td] $10.54 [/td][td] $9.94 [/td][td] -5.69% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] 0 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] $0.00 [/td][td] 0.00% [/td][/tr][/table]

[Value Buy]

I know rules are rules, but I got hosed today.
I said short CMG.
CMG closed Friday at $285.13 and gapped down at the open to $282.06, so I am showing a loss on the day.
I want a recount, just like 2000 in Florida. Of course, ole Al Gore lost that recount and the rules state, "opening price" on Monday

[rovo]

Item #1 News Event:
09:05 ET DOW , NASDAQ , S&P
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.90. A barrage of selling pressure has knocked stock futures a leg lower. The action comes in response to news that analysts at S&P have affirmed the ratings on the U.S., but issued a negative outlook. The news has caused the greenback to give up some of its gain against the euro, which is now down 0.6% at $1.43

Item #2 Rule 2:
2. Selection may be changed up to the opening bell.

Item #3 Value Buy's Comment:
I know rules are rules, but I got hosed today.
I said short CMG.
CMG closed Friday at $285.13 and gapped down at the open to $282.06, so I am showing a loss on the day.
I want a recount, just like 2000 in Florida. Of course, ole Al Gore lost that recount and the rules state, "opening price" on Monday.

The news item hit the wires around 9:05 AM and you had ample opportunity to change your selection prior to the opening bell, per rule #2.

I have called an emergency session of the "Rules Committee" and the decision is to allow your selection to stand as entered.

[mtntigger]

I know rules are rules, but I got hosed today

That'll teach ya to bet against my pet stock, VB.

[Value Buy]

I know rules are rules, but to be killed on a short play on an opening gap down is just wrong wrong wrong.......
Of course, in the real world I would not have a short play hanging out there over the weekend waiting for the opening.

Heck, next after announcing earnings, it will gap way up on me...........

[clarkrl2]

Value Buy, we all run the same risk of gap ups or gap downs. My pick DIS actually gapped down 1.3% compared to your CMG 1.1%. Neither one of those amounts is huge compared to some of the high flying or low flying volatile picks some of us occassionally throw out. Welcome to POTW and I still think short is the best bet for this week although I reserve the right to change my opinion at the end of the week. Do the markets close for Good Friday?

Edit: According to this site Apr. 22 is a market holiday
www.rightline.net/calendar/market-holidays.html

[yclept]

The action comes in response to news that analysts at S&P have affirmed the ratings on the U.S., but issued a negative outlook.

Would that be the same S&P that rated a lot of worthless CDOs triple A? Pray tell why anyone with half a brain would care what S&P, Fitch, or Moody's would say about anything! It really is funny when you think about it -- they are saying that there is a lot of political bickering jeopardizing the chances that the Republidiots will reach a compromise with the Democrats to reduce the deficit. That's news? Was there someone living under a rock somewhere on the grounds of an insane asylum who didn't know that?

[Bluerobin]

Yclept, I am impressed, especially on a down day! I agree with your assessment of S&P too.

[Value Buy]

Apr 18, 2011 23:02:11 GMT -5 clarkrl2 said:

Value Buy, we all run the same risk of gap ups or gap downs. My pick DIS actually gapped down 1.3% compared to your CMG 1.1%. Neither one of those amounts is huge compared to some of the high flying or low flying volatile picks some of us occassionally throw out. Welcome to POTW and I still think short is the best bet for this week although I reserve the right to change my opinion at the end of the week. Do the markets close for Good Friday?

Edit: According to this site Apr. 22 is a market holiday
www.rightline.net/calendar/market-holidays.html

Yes, I know the rules, and it's just a game.
Just complaining a little.
Markets are closed Friday.

[2kids10horses]

ValueBuy,

I feel your pain. I use an end-of-day screening system, and it will signal reversals of trends. Sometimes, however, the gap in the direction of the new signal makes it hard to capitalize on it. That's just the way it is.