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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 19:07:29 GMT -5
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warsaw (banned)
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Post by warsaw (banned) on Dec 30, 2010 19:23:13 GMT -5
I've heard between 15-20%, and wasn't it Reagan who changed the Unemployment rate to hide unemployed after 6 months? Is this a gold ad?
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 19:31:01 GMT -5
I've heard between 15-20%, and wasn't it Reagan who changed the Unemployment rate to hide unemployed after 6 months? Is this a gold ad? The CPI has changed twice, significantly, since 1980. Once under Reagan, but more significantly under Clinton with the implementation of the Boskin Commission's recommendations, circa 1995. Michael Boskin was the one who espoused hedonics and substitution. No, it is not a gold ad. The article stands on its own merits. |
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Post by nicomachus on Dec 30, 2010 19:46:42 GMT -5
It is not the government hiding the depression, but our society as a whole. How many people are willing to admit to it?
They hide it the same way any person tries to hide depression: Put on a happy face, indulge in drugs or alcohol, and try to fill the void with material goods.
The strange thing about this depression, compared to the last one, is that people keep buying things. In the last one they didn't even buy food.
Thus, the depression is hidden.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 20:02:38 GMT -5
This depression is not really comparable to the Great Depression because, back then, we were on a gold standard and gold was literally money. Now, we have the printing presses running 24/7. I have said before that our situation is more akin to the Italian/Medici banking crises in the 1340s, or the end of the Mongol Empire under Kubalai. It would take too long for me to elaborate on my underlying analysis, but to put it succinctly, we are living during the age of dying paper fiat currencies and a liquidity crisis morphed into a sovereign solvency crisis. The Great Depression was not an example of this.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 20:42:06 GMT -5
This depression is not really comparable to the Great Depression because, back then, we were on a gold standard and gold was literally money. And things are a lot better today because of it. I don't understand how people could think that getting back on a gold standard would be a good thing. |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 20:44:16 GMT -5
This depression is not really comparable to the Great Depression because, back then, we were on a gold standard and gold was literally money.
And things are a lot better today because of it. I don't understand how people could think that getting back on a gold standard would be a good thing.Things are much, much worse now than the Great Depression, by far. We have set ourselves up for empire-ending economic failure. I am not a fan of the gold exchange standard by any means; I'd prefer a goin coin standard or a freegold standard. What both of those do is allow the people to have economic freedom. That's all gold is: Economic Freedom. Right now, Americans are enslaved by the dollar, which means we are enslaved by the central bankers. American savers and investors, and foreign investors, are imprisoned by a govt. that will not stop destroying the medium of exchange and (alleged) store of value. Archie, this was known as "treason" and "fraud" to the Founders. Section 19 of the Coinage Act of 1792. I can't imagine a worse scenario. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 20:45:30 GMT -5
I can't imagine a worse scenario. Imagine the Great Depression. Oh wait, you don't have to. |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 20:47:39 GMT -5
Imagine the Great Depression. Oh wait, you don't have to. LOL. You only think the Great Depression is worse because it has already played out, not understanding that the sovereign solvency crisis we are in can only end in one of two ways. Expand your mind past the Great Depression, like the rest of the world does, to see where we are headed. Don't allow yourself to get stuck in AmeriThink, because it's sad to say, but still true, that this country has been grossly ignorant for decades now. (Look where the future is leading us, Arch. "Orient" yourself to the East.) Americans are used to paper schemes; they're still invested in a Dow that has been dead for over a decade; or in a collapsed housing market; or paper commodities futures; etc. Wrap your thought process around the fact that NOTHING has been fixed, nor will it be in this political environment. All we have done is transmogrify a liquidity and debt crisis into a sovereign solvency crisis. |
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warsaw (banned)
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Post by warsaw (banned) on Dec 30, 2010 20:58:04 GMT -5
No, the Great Depression was much worse. Thank God Bush wasn't a Hooverite, and the Dems were elected right on time. In addition, Hitler and the Japanese military weren't produced out of it. I THOUGHT this was a gold ad....tyvm
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:05:53 GMT -5
No, the Great Depression was much worse. Thank God Bush wasn't a Hooverite, and the Dems were elected right on time. In addition, Hitler and the Japanese military weren't produced out of it. I THOUGHT this was a gold ad....tyvm Care to back up your opinion with some careful analysis? This is not a gold ad, LOL. Give me YOUR reasoning and not some groupthink, political hackisms. And as a sidenote, explain to me how Hoover was any different than FDR since FDR did little more than continue the policies started by Hoover, and as outlined in the Republican National Convention of 1932. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 21:16:46 GMT -5
If this is a depression, we have it pretty easy compared to the 1930s depression..sure there is unemployement and all governments are broke, but I don't see long soup lines and mass migrations...unless I'm missing something.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:20:02 GMT -5
If this is a depression, we have it pretty easy compared to the 1930s depression..sure there is unemployement and all governments are broke, but I don't see long soup lines and mass migrations...unless I'm missing something. It's called "Extend and Pretend" until you can't pretend anymore. Unlike the Great Depression, where we at least let the corrupt institutions fail, we have transferred the results of their malinvestment to the sovereign. And who funds the sovereign at the end of the day? The Great Depression recapitalized the system overnight with the confiscation and revaluation of gold, for better or for worse. We do not have the luxury of being a net creditor nation with a currency backed by anything other than promises by govt. not to destroy it. Well, what's the other choice? Default? Not gonna happen by choice. We have two choices in order to recapitalize the economy. Either default on our debt, or inflate the medium of exchange used to extinguish that debt. (Never mind the fact that our currency IS effectively debt, that is a topic for a different day.) Unlike the Great Depression, and due to TARP, AIG/Freddie/Fannie nationalizations, etc., we are out of more tasteful options. |
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Dec 30, 2010 21:21:51 GMT -5
Traelin0 there is a lot here to answer. not sure if these were included inn Hoovers and the republicans planks during the election but they were pushed by Roosevlt in the 'New Deal " of his first administration. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt1st new Deal _______________________________________________ First New Deal, 1933–1934Roosevelt's "First 100 Days" concentrated on the first part of his strategy: immediate relief. From March 9 to June 16, 1933, he sent Congress a record number of bills, all of which passed easily. To propose programs, Roosevelt relied on leading Senators such as George Norris, Robert F. Wagner and Hugo Black, as well as his Brain Trust of academic advisers. Like Hoover, he saw the Depression caused in part by people no longer spending or investing because they were afraid. His inauguration on March 4, 1933 occurred in the middle of a bank panic, hence the backdrop for his famous words: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."[53] The very next day Congress passed the Emergency Banking Act which declared a "bank holiday" and announced a plan to allow banks to reopen. However, the number of banks that opened their doors after the "holiday" was fewer than the number that had been open before.[54] This was his first proposed step to recovery. To give Americans confidence in the banks, Roosevelt signed the Glass-Steagall Act that created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Dorothea Lange's Migrant Mother depicts destitute pea pickers during the depression in California, centering on Florence Owens Thompson, a mother of seven children at age 32, March 1936.Relief measures included the continuation of Hoover's major relief program for the unemployed under the new name, Federal Emergency Relief Administration. The most popular of all New Deal agencies, and Roosevelt's favorite, was the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), which hired 250,000 unemployed young men to work on rural local projects. Congress also gave the Federal Trade Commission broad new regulatory powers and provided mortgage relief to millions of farmers and homeowners. Roosevelt expanded a Hoover agency, the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, making it a major source of financing to railroads and industry. Roosevelt made agriculture relief a high priority and set up the first Agricultural Adjustment Administration (AAA). The AAA tried to force higher prices for commodities by paying farmers to take land out of crops and to cut herds. Reform of the economy was the goal of the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) of 1933. It tried to end cutthroat competition by forcing industries to come up with codes that established the rules of operation for all firms within specific industries, such as minimum prices, agreements not to compete, and production restrictions. Industry leaders negotiated the codes which were then approved by NIRA officials. Industry needed to raise wages as a condition for approval. Provisions encouraged unions and suspended anti-trust laws. The NIRA was found to be unconstitutional by unanimous decision of the U.S. Supreme Court on May 27, 1935. Roosevelt opposed the decision, saying "The fundamental purposes and principles of the NIRA are sound. To abandon them is unthinkable. It would spell the return to industrial and labor chaos."[55] In 1933, major new banking regulations were passed. In 1934, the Securities and Exchange Commission was created to regulate Wall Street, with 1932 campaign fundraiser Joseph P. Kennedy in charge. Recovery was pursued through "pump-priming" (that is, federal spending). The NIRA included $3.3 billion of spending through the Public Works Administration to stimulate the economy, which was to be handled by Interior Secretary Harold Ickes. Roosevelt worked with Republican Senator George Norris to create the largest government-owned industrial enterprise in American history, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which built dams and power stations, controlled floods, and modernized agriculture and home conditions in the poverty-stricken Tennessee Valley. The repeal of prohibition also brought in new tax revenues and helped him keep a major campaign promise. Executive Order 6102 made all privately held gold of American citizens property of the US Treasury. The goal was to counter the deflation which was paralyzing the economy.[56] Roosevelt tried to keep his campaign promise by cutting the federal budget, including a reduction in military spending from $752 million in 1932 to $531 million in 1934 and a 40% cuts in spending on veterans' benefits. He removed 500,000 veterans and widows from the pension rolls and reduced benefits for the remainder. He cut the salaries of federal employees and reduced spending on research and education.[57][58] On the other hand, veterans groups like the American Legion and the Veterans of Foreign Wars won their campaign to transform their benefits from payments due in 1945 to immediate cash when Congress overrode the President's veto and passed the Bonus Act in January 1936.[59] Roosevelt also kept his promise to push for repeal of Prohibition. In April 1933, he issued an Executive Order redefining 3.2% alcohol as the maximum allowed. That order was preceded by Congressional action in the drafting and passage of the 21st Amendment, which was ratified later that year |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:24:04 GMT -5
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Dec 30, 2010 21:26:08 GMT -5
Roosevelts second new deal
_________________________________________________________________________
Second New Deal, 1935–1936
Dust storms were frequent during the 1930s; this one occurred in Texas in 1935. See the Dust Bowl.After the 1934 Congressional elections, which gave Roosevelt large majorities in both houses, there was a fresh surge of New Deal legislation. These measures included the Works Progress Administration (WPA) which set up a national relief agency that employed two million family heads. However, even at the height of WPA employment in 1938, unemployment was still 12.5% according to figures from Michael Darby.[60] The Social Security Act, established Social Security and promised economic security for the elderly, the poor and the sick. Senator Robert Wagner wrote the Wagner Act, which officially became the National Labor Relations Act. The act established the federal rights of workers to organize unions, to engage in collective bargaining, and to take part in strikes.
While the First New Deal of 1933 had broad support from most sectors, the Second New Deal challenged the business community. Conservative Democrats, led by Al Smith, fought back with the American Liberty League, savagely attacking Roosevelt and equating him with Marx and Lenin.[61] But Smith overplayed his hand, and his boisterous rhetoric let Roosevelt isolate his opponents and identify them with the wealthy vested interests that opposed the New Deal, setting Roosevelt up for the 1936 landslide.[62] By contrast, the labor unions, energized by the Wagner Act, signed up millions of new members and became a major backer of Roosevelt's reelections in 1936, 1940 and 1944.[63]
Economic environment This article or section appears to contradict itself about the level of debt. Paragraph one of this section states that debt increased to 40.9% in 1936 and remained there until WWII. The chart shows that debt was already at that level in 1933. Which is correct?. Please see its talk page for more information. (September 2010)
See also: Great Depression in the United States#Effects
Government spending increased from 8.0% of gross national product (GNP) under Hoover in 1932 to 10.2% of the GNP in 1936. Because of the depression, the national debt as a percentage of the GNP had doubled under Hoover from 16% to 33.6% of the GNP in 1932. While Roosevelt balanced the "regular" budget, the emergency budget was funded by debt, which increased to 40.9% in 1936, and then remained level until World War II, at which time it escalated rapidly. The national debt rose under Hoover, and held steady under FDR until the war began, as shown on chart 1.[64]
National debt from four years before Roosevelt took office to five years after the time that he died in officeDeficit spending had been recommended by some economists, most notably by John Maynard Keynes of Britain. The GNP was 34% higher in 1936 than in 1932 and 58% higher in 1940 on the eve of war. That is, the economy grew 58% from 1932 to 1940 in 8 years of peacetime, and then grew 56% from 1940 to 1945 in 5 years of wartime. However, the economic recovery did not absorb all the unemployment Roosevelt inherited. Unemployment fell dramatically in Roosevelt's first term, from 25% when he took office to 14.3% in 1937. Afterward, however, it increased to 19.0% in 1938 ('a depression within a depression') and 17.2% in 1939, and stayed high until it almost vanished during World War II when the previously unemployed were conscripted, taking them out of the potential labor supply number.[65]
During the war, the economy operated under such different conditions that comparison with peacetime is impossible. However, Roosevelt saw the New Deal policies as central to his legacy, and in his 1944 State of the Union Address, he advocated that Americans should think of basic economic rights as a Second Bill of Rights.
The U.S. economy grew rapidly during Roosevelt's term.[66] However, coming out of the depression, this growth was accompanied by continuing high levels of unemployment; as the median joblessness rate during the New Deal was 17.2%. Throughout his entire term, including the war years, average unemployment was 13%.[67][68] Total employment during Roosevelt's term expanded by 18.31 million jobs, with an average annual increase in jobs during his administration of 5.3%.[69]
Roosevelt did not raise income taxes before World War II began; however payroll taxes were also introduced to fund the new Social Security program in 1937. He also got Congress to spend more on many various programs and projects never before seen in American history. However, under the revenue pressures brought on by the depression, most states added or increased taxes, including sales as well as income taxes. Roosevelt's proposal for new taxes on corporate savings were highly controversial in 1936–37, and were rejected by Congress. During the war he pushed for even higher income tax rates for individuals (reaching a marginal tax rate of 91%) and corporations and a cap on high salaries for executives. He also issued Executive Order 9250 in October 1942, later to be rescinded by Congress, which raised the marginal tax rate for salaries exceeding $25,000 (after tax) to 100%, thereby limiting salaries to $25,000 (about $337,000 today).[70][71][72] To fund the war, Congress broadened the base so that almost every employee paid federal income taxes, and introduced withholding taxes in 1943.
GDP in United States January 1929 to January 1941Unemployment (% labor force)
Year Lebergott Darby[73]
1933 24.9 20.6
1934 21.7 16.0
1935 20.1 14.2
1936 16.9 9.9
1937 14.3 9.1
1938 19.0 12.5
1939 17.2 11.3
1940 14.6 9.5
1941 9.9 8.0
1942 4.7 4.7
1943 1.9 1.9
1944 1.2 1.2
1945 1.9 1.9
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 21:26:11 GMT -5
Maybe I am just not smart enough to see it coming, but until the shit hits the fan, I do not believe that we are coming to the end of all things.
I see what the country is going through and it is not great, but it is not as bad as the things I have heard about the Great Depression.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 21:27:12 GMT -5
If this is a depression, we have it pretty easy compared to the 1930s depression..sure there is unemployement and all governments are broke, but I don't see long soup lines and mass migrations...unless I'm missing something. It's called "Extend and Pretend" until you can't pretend anymore. Unlike the Great Depression, where we at least let the corrupt institutions fail, we have transferred the results of their malinvestment to the sovereign. And who funds the sovereign at the end of the day? The Great Depression recapitalized the system overnight with the confiscation and revaluation of gold, for better or for worse. We do not have the luxury of being a net creditor nation with a currency backed by anything but promises by govt. not to destroy it. Well, what's the other choice? Default? Not gonna happen by choice. We have two choices in order to recapitalize the economy. Either default on our debt, or inflate the medium of exchange used to extinguish that debt. (Never mind the fact that our currency IS effectively debt, that is a topic for a different day.) Unlike the Great Depression, and due to TARP, AIG/Freddie/Fannie nationalizations, etc., we are out of more tasteful options. You are so focused on 'gold' as to not see the forest from the trees, we have a fiat economy and currency, people accept it and its worked for 70? 90? years...however long you want to concede that the gold standard has been over and done with. Just keep your food and your ammo stocked up and let the rest of us live from day to day. |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:28:46 GMT -5
Maybe I am just not smart enough to see it coming, but until the shit hits the fan, I do not believe that we are coming to the end of all things.
I see what the country is going through and it is not great, but it is not as bad as the things I have heard about the Great Depression. We aren't going to go through the end of all things, like the emotional doomsayers on MT seem to think. The world will continue to orbit the Sun, and we will continue to have four seasons. The best times to profit are in economic crises. We are merely going through yet another paradigm shift in power from West to East, just like it shifted from East to West and West to East in the past. Human beings are still human beings and are subject to the same mistakes. |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:30:41 GMT -5
You are so focused on 'gold' as to not see the forest from the trees, we have a fiat economy and currency, people accept it and its worked for 70? 90? years...however long you want to concede that the gold standard has been over and done with.
Just keep your food and your ammo stocked up and let the rest of us live from day to day.  Ahh, the refuge of the intellectually disarmed. The laws of economics don't stop at the shores of America. I'd say it's sad that you don't understand that, but I'm not because for every loser in the markets, there's a winner. I've been winning in real and nominal terms for 12 years straight. You? I know I know, "this time is different". The Federal Reserve Note will be that one out of 3,800+ paper currencies which won't die when it's overissued. I also think it's noteworthy that you compare the "dollar" of today to that of 70 and 90 years ago. That's comparing apples to tires, because at least oranges are also fruits. Your "dollar" has lasted 38 years. The average lifespan of fiat paper is 40 years. The longest lasting fiat paper lasted no longer than a human lifespan. So continue to wager with patriotic vigor, whatever that is worth, considering the West is doing all of the wrong things. I will continue to bet the way history dictates for a decade now, and that is watching what Asia does. |
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Dec 30, 2010 21:31:02 GMT -5
Interesting figures on the unemployment.. started at 25 % {Possible that was the limit as there was no unemployment insurence then...thus you wouldn't, I think . have as we have know, those who are no longer counted , but not working, not looking actively for work ...
but it was still at 10% in 1941..just befor the war and the call up for the armed forces and the factories being tooled up...as today, that so many don't understand or won't accept, yet they did reelect him...it does take time to get back to normal times of what ever those % are. 5/6%?
I wonder if American public will give obama the time in the next two yeas or keep the blame on him?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 21:35:56 GMT -5
You are so focused on 'gold' as to not see the forest from the trees, we have a fiat economy and currency, people accept it and its worked for 70? 90? years...however long you want to concede that the gold standard has been over and done with.
Just keep your food and your ammo stocked up and let the rest of us live from day to day. Ahh, the refuge of the intellectually disarmed. The laws of economics don't stop at the shores of America. I'd say it's sad that you don't understand that, but I'm not because for every loser in the markets, there's a winner. I've been winning in real and nominal terms for 12 years straight. You? I know I know, "this time is different". The Federal Reserve Note will be that one out of 3,800+ paper currencies which won't die when it's overissued. Me? I'm a firm believer in practicality over Apocolypse theories and End Times theories. I'm willing to venture in my lifetime I'm not going to see an Economic Apocolypse. |
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Dec 30, 2010 21:37:34 GMT -5
[/quote]
I'd say it's sad that you don't understand that, [/quote]
Hey trae..was that necessary, seems like a arrogant diss there, possible I misconstrue? As if he just is inadewquate in his thinking when its just a matter of opinion. The way I read it anyway. Was it necesary? Just a thought.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:43:08 GMT -5
Hey trae..was that necessary, seems like a arrogant diss there, possible I misconstrue? As if he just is inadewquate in his thinking when its just a matter of opinion. The way I read it anyway. Was it necesary? Just a thought. No, because based on his comment, he really doesn't understand, dezi. A person who compares the Great Depression to today doesn't understand how our monetary system works. And they certainly don't lob ad hominems at someone as a guns and ammo loon if they understand that this conversation is an analysis of why the Western sovereigns are screwed. TBH, I have never talked to a European or Asian with insight into economics that compares today's monetary system to that of 90 years ago. Or the Great Depression for that matter. Just a thought. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 21:45:00 GMT -5
He is probably right that I haven't studied the ends and outs of currency. I would just assume that me and traelin0's world views are opposed and leave it at that. I can only hope he is wrong in the end |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:46:56 GMT -5
Me? I'm a firm believer in practicality over Apocolypse theories and End Times theories. I'm willing to venture in my lifetime I'm not going to see an Economic Apocolypse. You're not being practical if you can't use objective analysis to realize that A) This is not the "End Times", and B) The West has dug itself a hole that is mathematically impossible to get out of without inflation or default. Maybe it's the engineer in me, but I find Americans to be less capable of seeing the world the way it is and not the way they want it to be. |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:50:08 GMT -5
He is probably right that I haven't studied the ends and outs of currency.
I would just assume that me and traelin0's world views are opposed and leave it at that.
I can only hope he is wrong in the end It's not the end of the world. Economic crises such as these make the aware very wealthy. There is no way to dig oneself out of a debt hole when the very currency you do it with is literally debt. Every Federal Reserve Note is a liability of someone else. If you paid back all the debt in this nation, there wouldn't be a penny in circulation. This is how our monetary system works. This is a quote from Robert Hemphill, who used to work for the Atlanta FED. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 21:52:17 GMT -5
If you paid back all the debt in this nation, there wouldn't be a penny in circulation. This is how our monetary system works. so why would we want to pay it back and why would we need to pay it back? |
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 30, 2010 21:55:32 GMT -5
so why would we want to pay it back and why would we need to pay it back? Arch, we've defaulted on our citizens once, and on the world once. What do you think the probability is that the world will stand for it again? Default is not politically palatable. So inflate the debt away and basically repudiate it. That is why China is dumping dollars on a daily basis. They just dumped $40 billion in Brazil a couple days ago, they and the rest of the world know that there are only two solutions. Politicians will not choose default because default = death of their lenders and diminishment of their political powers. How do you fund unending foreign wars and domestic welfare with a defaulted banking system and sound money? You don't, you print it and hope that it doesn't blow up in your face. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2010 21:56:12 GMT -5
He is probably right that I haven't studied the ends and outs of currency. I would just assume that me and traelin0's world views are opposed and leave it at that. I can only hope he is wrong in the end It's not the end of the world. Economic crises such as these make the aware very wealthy. There is no way to dig oneself out of a debt hole when the very currency you do it with is literally debt. Every Federal Reserve Note is a liability of someone else. If you paid back all the debt in this nation, there wouldn't be a penny in circulation. This is how our monetary system works. This is a quote from Robert Hemphill, who used to work for the Atlanta FED. Ok full disclosure has to be that Hemphill made these comments in 1935? quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote/robert_hemphill_quote_ca66So when did he define this 'very soon' collapse in his comments? I'm not even saying what he said isn't true, of course the banks control the money supply, but again IMHO its all hyperbole. |
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Ahh, the refuge of the intellectually disarmed. The laws of economics don't stop at the shores of America. I'd say it's sad that you don't understand that, but I'm not because for every loser in the markets, there's a winner. I've been winning in real and nominal terms for 12 years straight. You?