thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 12, 2022 20:15:05 GMT -5
it almost seems like the people running for office in Arizona are MORE crazy than the people of Arizona. i never would have guessed that. it is counter-intuitive. I agree that this election is turning out way better than I feared.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 22:23:12 GMT -5
Hobbs is 5:1 at election betting odds, now.
if i were to guess, they will announce that she has won tonight.
edit: well, i am not good at guessing the when part. LOL. no more votes tonight.
and Hobbs is back to 7:2 at betting odds now.
she lost 4000 votes in a lot of 84000, with 195000 remaining. she is currently +34k
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 13, 2022 8:48:55 GMT -5
Hobbs is 5:1 at election betting odds, now. if i were to guess, they will announce that she has won tonight. edit: well, i am not good at guessing the when part. LOL. no more votes tonight. and Hobbs is back to 7:2 at betting odds now. she lost 4000 votes in a lot of 84000, with 195000 remaining. she is currently +34k Because Kari Lake is such a landmine waiting to explode, I wouldn’t be surprised if the race is called when 100% of the ballots are counted. This race should be called the “See you next Tuesday” race - for two reasons. 😜😜
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 13, 2022 10:57:44 GMT -5
Hobbs is 5:1 at election betting odds, now. if i were to guess, they will announce that she has won tonight. edit: well, i am not good at guessing the when part. LOL. no more votes tonight. and Hobbs is back to 7:2 at betting odds now. she lost 4000 votes in a lot of 84000, with 195000 remaining. she is currently +34k Because Kari Lake is such a landmine waiting to explode, I wouldn’t be surprised if the race is called when 100% of the ballots are counted. This race should be called the “See you next Tuesday” race - for two reasons. 😜😜 This idea that the calling of a race will be candidate based instead of numbers based is intriguing to me. If cold analysis shows it is over, would all media withhold that finding? Would editors demand a higher level of certainty in this case? I go back and forth on answers to such questions.
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Post by Knee Deep in Water Chloe on Nov 13, 2022 11:24:47 GMT -5
One of my cousins is mostly from AZ. (There's some Dixon, IL in there too.) He's terribly upset. He's far enough gone into MAGA that I had to mute him on FB for a few years.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 12:24:14 GMT -5
One of my cousins is mostly from AZ. (There's some Dixon, IL in there too.) He's terribly upset. He's far enough gone into MAGA that I had to mute him on FB for a few years. good. may he have a breakdown and revelation.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 13, 2022 18:03:11 GMT -5
Because Kari Lake is such a landmine waiting to explode, I wouldn’t be surprised if the race is called when 100% of the ballots are counted. This race should be called the “See you next Tuesday” race - for two reasons. 😜😜 This idea that the calling of a race will be candidate based instead of numbers based is intriguing to me. If cold analysis shows it is over, would all media withhold that finding? Would editors demand a higher level of certainty in this case? I go back and forth on answers to such questions. Fox lost viewers when they were the first to correctly called AZ for Biden. They said they did not regret it.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 13, 2022 21:22:52 GMT -5
93% counted - Hobbs still ahead by a narrow margin.
I suspect the rage of Lake will translate really well to a prime time Fox News program. I am interested at how the GOP will pivot now that Trump’s strategy did not succeed.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 21:44:38 GMT -5
this one is still too close to call.
it will be VERY close to an automatic recount (1/2%). the breaks on these recent ballots have been almost exactly 10% in favor of Lake.
that means she is likely to get another 10000 closer, which would put her about 15k short.
HOWEVER, the rural counties will probably go 2:1 for her. i DOUBT she has enough vote to carry her over the top. but she MIGHT have enough for a mandatory recount.
EDIT: oh....tomorrow, if you are wondering. there is no way this happens tonight. they are tallying less than 100k per day, and they already did 90k+ today.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 21:45:46 GMT -5
93% counted - Hobbs still ahead by a narrow margin. I suspect the rage of Lake will translate really well to a prime time Fox News program. I am interested at how the GOP will pivot now that Trump’s strategy did not succeed. it appears that most people have had enough of Trump doing this. the real question is how Arizonan's will feel. i like said. i have my popcorn. i am actually really looking forward to the meltdown, should it happen.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 21:47:51 GMT -5
betting odds has Hobbs at 19:1
i am thinking this is all but over. i would think that some organization like MSN would want to call this first, just to watch her lose her shit.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 13, 2022 22:09:11 GMT -5
i just realized something.
being generous, there is 7.49% of the vote left to count. that is 195,000 votes, not 105,000 votes. i am not sure where i got that 105000 from. but it is not right.
give that fact, it is POSSIBLE (not likely) that Lake will catch Hobbs. HOWEVER, it is LIKELY that this is heading toward mandatory recount.
ok, no more staring at these numbers! LOL!
edit: oh, and we might NOT know tomorrow, given the rate of counting. more likely Tuesday.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 12:13:31 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 14, 2022 17:09:12 GMT -5
A1 and A6 are both leaning red. Any insights on them?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 17:14:49 GMT -5
A1 and A6 are both leaning red. Any insights on them? given how the votes are going, and where they are located, i think that the GOP will win both of them. unfortunately. Dems have a narrow shot at one of them.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 17:21:55 GMT -5
i will have more insights about it tonight. but to fill in a bit.....
the remaining vote is skewed about 55R-45D, so far. that means that unless the Democratic Candidate is leading the vote count 55D-45R CURRENTLY, they are going to continue falling behind. that is my prediction, anyway. so, that includes all THREE candidates in the offing right now. and what that means is that the races where the GOP is leading, it will win. and the one it is NOT leading is too close to call.
again, if something changes in the votes coming in, i will change my projections. but that is where i am right now. AZ is way redder than Nevada. this late vote is breaking for Democrats, there.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 14, 2022 20:51:41 GMT -5
the vote drop just happened, and my opinion has not changed. i am tentatively saying that Hobbs will win this, but i think the other two seats (1&6) are going to the GOP, which will probably ensure a House majority. it will be fun watching Lake's meltdown.
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 15, 2022 7:34:06 GMT -5
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 15, 2022 11:20:12 GMT -5
I'm waiting for Kari Lake's audio implosion.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 15, 2022 14:49:47 GMT -5
she is a very intense person. she will have a very intense meltdown.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 16, 2022 1:53:06 GMT -5
Is this the quiet before the storm?
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Post by Cheesy FL-Vol on Nov 16, 2022 2:08:36 GMT -5
Is this the quiet before the storm? Lake storms can be very dangerous. Just ask The Edmund Fitzgerald.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 18, 2022 10:45:18 GMT -5
I hear Kari Lake went to Mar-a-Lago this week. I guess she needed to suck on Trump’s asshole so he wouldn’t brand her as a loser.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 18, 2022 11:38:44 GMT -5
I hear Kari Lake went to Mar-a-Lago this week. I guess she needed to suck on Trump’s asshole so he wouldn’t brand her as a loser. i wouldn't get anywhere near that serial groper, were i her.
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Post by tbop77 on Nov 24, 2022 7:10:57 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 24, 2022 9:00:06 GMT -5
What, other than a potential protest, is happening at the Arizona Capitol on Friday? I found this: Arizona counties will be forced to certify election despite ‘political theater’The secretary of state, in turn, is required to certify the statewide election on Dec. 5. Although it was not well thought out to conclusion, selection of time and place for the previous act of insurrection had some logic. As long as officials don't create some artificial target that the protesters can focus on to attack, this will fizzle. (I should note there is the possibility of meaningless tantrum induced property damage.)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 24, 2022 12:45:11 GMT -5
if there were a re-do, she would lose WORSE.
so, yeah, let's have TWENTY re-do's. fifty. let's re-do this until the end of time. you will just keep losing.
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 24, 2022 13:21:44 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 24, 2022 17:50:31 GMT -5
there are a couple of counties that are refusing to close their ballots in Arizona. www.azmirror.com/2022/11/23/arizona-counties-will-be-forced-to-certify-election-despite-political-theater/i heard somewhere that they might refuse to certify, leaving their voters out of the election. although i like that idea, because it would deprive them of one more congressional seat, i do NOT like that idea because it sets a precedent that could be used to mess with future elections. i hope that it goes just as they are saying in the article- that the election WILL be certified, with or without the counties.
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 28, 2022 21:16:32 GMT -5
Satire from The Borowitz Report Kari Lake Storms Out of Thanksgiving After Losing Battle for WishboneBy Andy Borowitz November 28, 2022 PHOENIX (The Borowitz Report)—The former anchorwoman Kari Lake reportedly “stormed out” of Thanksgiving dinner after losing a pitched battle over the wishbone, multiple witnesses reported. According to those who saw the ugly scene unfold, Lake was locked in a fierce struggle over the turkey part with a rival identified by several onlookers as her nine-year-old niece Paisley. After Lake’s attempt to win a majority of the wishbone was soundly defeated, she blasted the contest for being riddled with fraud. “When the truth comes out, I am going to be your worst nightmare,” she reportedly told her niece. Just prior to her angry departure from the dinner, Lake had angrily rejected a demotion to the children’s table, relatives said. Kari Lake Storms Out of Thanksgiving After Losing Battle for Wishbone
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