dondub
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The meek shall indeed inherit the earth but only after the Visigoths are done with it.
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Post by dondub on Nov 11, 2022 16:17:04 GMT -5
well, it matters to bills. or something does. being right, i guess? maybe embarrassing me? i am actually not sure. probably some combination of all of that. Thank you for deleting your post with inaccurate information. Time for some MMA you two.🥊
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 16:24:56 GMT -5
well, it matters to bills. or something does. being right, i guess? maybe embarrassing me? i am actually not sure. probably some combination of all of that. Thank you for deleting your post with inaccurate information. if i make a remark i can't defend, i generally DO delete it. out of 70000 posts, i think i have probably deleted 70. if i find my source on that, i will post it. but as i said, it is possible i misread it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 16:26:12 GMT -5
Thank you for deleting your post with inaccurate information. Time for some MMA you two.🥊 i don't know what that means. please don't explain it.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 11, 2022 16:31:52 GMT -5
Thank you for deleting your post with inaccurate information. if i make a remark i can't defend, i generally DO delete it. i can't comment on your assertions, accordingly. I take a different approach. I leave posts and acknowledge it when it is pointed out I am wrong.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 19:16:20 GMT -5
if i make a remark i can't defend, i generally DO delete it. i can't comment on your assertions, accordingly. I take a different approach. I leave posts and acknowledge it when it is pointed out I am wrong. that's nice, in the abstract. in practice, i can't recall a single occasion where you have admitted to being wrong. IE, when i said that Democrats would gain Senate seats in 2020, and you said they wouldn't.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 11, 2022 19:27:18 GMT -5
I take a different approach. I leave posts and acknowledge it when it is pointed out I am wrong. that's nice, in the abstract. in practice, i can't recall a single occasion where you have admitted to being wrong. IE, when i said that Democrats would gain Senate seats in 2020, and you said they wouldn't. Wow, okay, I was wrong.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 19:30:26 GMT -5
that's nice, in the abstract. in practice, i can't recall a single occasion where you have admitted to being wrong. IE, when i said that Democrats would gain Senate seats in 2020, and you said they wouldn't. Wow, okay, I was wrong. for the record, i don't think anyone pointed it out, before today. ok, it appears i was wrong about Kari Lake's broadcasting career. by all accounts, her last job was with FOX News. i can't figure out where i read differently, and can't find it now, so i give up and concede the point. thanks for the correction, bills.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 19:42:43 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 11, 2022 20:03:39 GMT -5
for the record, i don't think anyone pointed it out, before today. ok, it appears i was wrong about Kari Lake's broadcasting career. by all accounts, her last job was with FOX News. i can't figure out where i read differently, and can't find it now, so i give up and concede the point. thanks for the correction, bills. Honestly, I am surprised I made such a declaration on the Senate. I have zero faith in my ability to predict such things.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 11, 2022 20:19:31 GMT -5
It did but now it has Hobbs ahead.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 20:37:13 GMT -5
for the record, i don't think anyone pointed it out, before today. ok, it appears i was wrong about Kari Lake's broadcasting career. by all accounts, her last job was with FOX News. i can't figure out where i read differently, and can't find it now, so i give up and concede the point. thanks for the correction, bills. Honestly, I am surprised I made such a declaration on the Senate. I have zero faith in my ability to predict such things. it was based on a lot of facts available at the time. actually, my brain in mush right now (i got my Covid booster today), so it might have been 2018. if i can pin it down, i will find the discussion later.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 20:46:45 GMT -5
It did but now it has Hobbs ahead. LOL! that was quick. note to the board: the odds have been right around 50/50 all day.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 11, 2022 20:57:13 GMT -5
Honestly, I am surprised I made such a declaration on the Senate. I have zero faith in my ability to predict such things. it was based on a lot of facts available at the time. actually, my brain in mush right now (i got my Covid booster today), so it might have been 2018. if i can pin it down, i will find the discussion later. I take a different approach. I leave posts and acknowledge it when it is pointed out I am wrong. that's nice, in the abstract. in practice, i can't recall a single occasion where you have admitted to being wrong. IE, when i said that Democrats would gain Senate seats in 2020, and you said they wouldn't. It would have had to be 2020 because "Following the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two, ..."
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 11, 2022 20:58:42 GMT -5
like i said. my brain is mush, bro. i am really foggy tonight.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 0:47:18 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 0:48:23 GMT -5
Hobbs is +32k, now. her lead is slowly growing.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 12, 2022 10:25:59 GMT -5
Saturday morning - we are up in the 83% of ballots counted and still have a lot of unknowns.
The known:
Good: Senator Mark Kelly win! Good: Fontes beats fuck-face-Finchem! Good: 3 Dem incumbent house reps have been called for the win
Good: Voter ID failed Good: Az legislature being able to change voter approved ballot measures failed. Good: Campaign finance disclosure passed.
Bad: Nut case Paul Gosar was uncontested - sorry America. Also 2 other R Incumbents have kept their house seats. Bad: Trump-endorsed Republican Eli Crane won against incumbent O’Halleran. His platform is pro-gun and “anti cancel culture”. District 2 is on the border, so I will make some assumptions. A seat lost 😞
The yet to determine:
Governor race still only 30k difference. If Katie Hobbs had any charm, she would be blowing Lake away.
House District 1 is still up for grabs - we could flip that from red to blue. That is such a weird district. But I would love to balance out the other flipped seat.
District 6 had no incumbent running but was a republican. Race is currently leaning red which would not be a flip.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 12, 2022 11:18:37 GMT -5
Why am I not surprised kari lake/her office would lie to seek sympathy. Police: No powder in envelope reported by candidate's officePHOENIX (AP) — There was no powder in an envelope that was opened at the Phoenix campaign headquarters of Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor of Arizona, police said. Phoenix police spokesperson Donna Rossi said Friday that “the state lab tested the items turned over to them,” The Arizona Republic reported. The lab “determined there was no substance inside.” Phoenix police and fire officials said they were called to the building around 2 a.m. Sunday, on a report of an envelope containing suspicious white powder. Police said at the time there were no reports of injuries or illness, though Lake’s campaign had said the staff member who opened the envelope was under medical supervision. The Lake campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Republic. The gubernatorial race between Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs in the crucial battleground state remained too early to call as of Saturday morning. It often takes days to know the results of key races in Arizona. Police: No powder in envelope reported by candidate's office
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 11:52:31 GMT -5
she could probably use some powder, about now.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 12, 2022 11:57:42 GMT -5
Why am I not surprised kari lake/her office would lie to seek sympathy. Police: No powder in envelope reported by candidate's officePHOENIX (AP) — There was no powder in an envelope that was opened at the Phoenix campaign headquarters of Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor of Arizona, police said. Phoenix police spokesperson Donna Rossi said Friday that “the state lab tested the items turned over to them,” The Arizona Republic reported. The lab “determined there was no substance inside.” Phoenix police and fire officials said they were called to the building around 2 a.m. Sunday, on a report of an envelope containing suspicious white powder. Police said at the time there were no reports of injuries or illness, though Lake’s campaign had said the staff member who opened the envelope was under medical supervision. The Lake campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Republic. The gubernatorial race between Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs in the crucial battleground state remained too early to call as of Saturday morning. It often takes days to know the results of key races in Arizona. Police: No powder in envelope reported by candidate's officeI am thinking at that point in a close campaign, 2 am, we are looking at a young staffer attempting to cover their ass when they got caught doing a little something to keep themselves going.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 12:36:54 GMT -5
i am listening to Fontes (the guy who beat Finchem) right now.
he is a really good speaker. you guys elected a good one. congratulations.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 16:18:47 GMT -5
i heard that Blake Masters is short an electron. that would definitely affect things.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 16:21:26 GMT -5
election betting odds are now 5:3 in favor of Hobbs. we were basically even odds all day yesterday.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 16:25:01 GMT -5
note to Thyme:
i think that Hobbs' strategy sucked. she basically AVOIDED Lake. and yeah. that almost never works. but i would like to mention two things.
1) like Oz and Trump, Lake has a LOT of media experience. she is seasoned. she is confident. she speaks with conviction, and she is charismatic. Hobbs had none of those things. so facing Lake was like Nixon -vs- JFK. 2) Lake is better at Trumping than Trump. i mean that. she really has every edge of that stupid ass message polished. she is terrifying. so, i think she would run well even in a NON-Trump year because she is so ready to run for office.
what do you think?
other than that, it is looking almost like a Democratic SWEEP in AZ. which is kinda amazing.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 17:59:48 GMT -5
it almost seems like the people running for office in Arizona are MORE crazy than the people of Arizona.
i never would have guessed that. it is counter-intuitive.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 18:52:48 GMT -5
Kari Lake thinks that she was chosen by God, i think. sort of a Joan of Trailer Park.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 18:53:48 GMT -5
new block of votes in. Hobbs now up nearly 2%.
edit: betting odds now has her at 2:1 favourite.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 12, 2022 19:02:20 GMT -5
AZ6 is also getting interesting. Democrat is now down less than 1400 votes with 18000 left to count.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 12, 2022 20:07:23 GMT -5
note to Thyme: i think that Hobbs' strategy sucked. she basically AVOIDED Lake. and yeah. that almost never works. but i would like to mention two things. 1) like Oz and Trump, Lake has a LOT of media experience. she is seasoned. she is confident. she speaks with conviction, and she is charismatic. Hobbs had none of those things. so facing Lake was like Nixon -vs- JFK. 2) Lake is better at Trumping than Trump. i mean that. she really has every edge of that stupid ass message polished. she is terrifying. so, i think she would run well even in a NON-Trump year because she is so ready to run for office. what do you think? other than that, it is looking almost like a Democratic SWEEP in AZ. which is kinda amazing. It wasn’t that Hobbs avoided lake - that makes sense. Cutting off Lake’s oxygen is a great strategy. It was that Hobbs was practically silent. Even in her campaign ads she rarely spoke. She just has zero charisma. From people in the know, it sounds like she is an excellent administrator - but just not a compelling speaker. But, maybe her silence was the way to go - she appears to be doing pretty well.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 12, 2022 20:13:47 GMT -5
AZ6 is also getting interesting. Democrat is now down less than 1400 votes with 18000 left to count. AZ6 and AZ1 might be 2 of the most important races right now. 6 is my parent’s district. It is usually pretty red, but they are very quiet, reasonable people. I don’t think there is a lot of Trump love there. He is too crass for that area. The republican running there is more reserved than some of the nut bags that are running across AZ.
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