"The South Shall Rise Again"

[djAdvocate]

i just saw this graph while researching partisanship:




you notice anything?  i think it is unmistakable.  since 1880, the South has been getting steadily more conservative.  the pivot point was in the 60's, when the NORTH threw down for Civil Rights, against the will of Southerners.  since then, the GOP has gotten increasingly radical.  i don't think there is any question about why this is all happening.  old elements of the confederacy were never defeated.  Democrats coddled them for votes for a CENTURY, and now the GOP is finishing the job.


your thoughts?

[dondub]

Jul 24, 2022 18:07:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i just saw this graph while researching partisanship:




you notice anything?  i think it is unmistakable.  since 1880, the South has been getting steadily more conservative.  the pivot point was in the 60's, when the NORTH threw down for Civil Rights, against the will of Southerners.  since then, the GOP has gotten increasingly radical.  i don't think there is any question about why this is all happening.  old elements of the confederacy were never defeated.  Democrats coddled them for votes for a CENTURY, and now the GOP is finishing the job.


your thoughts?

Extremely interesting.

[billisonboard]

So it says that from 1869 to 1879, southern state legislatures for Senators and Southern voters for Representatives stopped appointing/electing conservatives and switched to appointing/electing liberals? Or the same people changed how they voted in Congress? Or did what liberal/conservative mean change? 

[djAdvocate]

the south elected SHITLOADS of black people.  that probably had almost everything to do with it.  but i have no guesses beyond that.  although i think it is a good guess.

[billisonboard]

They stayed liberal into the 1920s. Pretty sure they didn't stay black.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 25, 2022 0:04:02 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

They stayed liberal into the 1920s. Pretty sure they didn't stay black.

the black people stayed pretty black, i think.  

edit: you asked about 1869-1879.  if you are asking about any successive period, you should frame your response in the form of a question rather than a dismissive response.  

[billisonboard]

I am attempting to understand the graph you posted. That dramatic change was the first thing that caught my eye so that is what I commented on. I questioned the accuracy of your guess based on all the information in the graph. If that quick change in voting patterns was a result of newly empowered black voters right after the Civil War, it seems it would have had a similar reverse change when that voting power was lost. 

The second thing that caught my eye was the left hand side of the graph with its "more liberal/more conservative" label. There is an indication they used Voteview data (https://voteview.com/about). I can not find on their site how those data points are determined. 

Another question is what constitutes the "Deep South"? 13 states or less? So we are likely talking 26 or fewer people for the Senate. The graph indicates a steep change right after the turn of the last century, about the time long time Senator Strom Thurmond died. How much of that change is a reflection of that one factor? 

So, my thoughts? I need a whole lot more understanding of what that graph truly reports before I could draw or critique any grand conclusions from it. 

[djAdvocate]

Jul 25, 2022 8:19:07 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I am attempting to understand the graph you posted. That dramatic change was the first thing that caught my eye so that is what I commented on. I questioned the accuracy of your guess based on all the information in the graph. If that quick change in voting patterns was a result of newly empowered black voters right after the Civil War, it seems it would have had a similar reverse change when that voting power was lost. 

The second thing that caught my eye was the left hand side of the graph with its "more liberal/more conservative" label. There is an indication they used Voteview data (https://voteview.com/about). I can not find on their site how those data points are determined. 

there is a standard way of determining this.  i don't have time to look it up right now.  they look at the positions that are taken by the demographic in question, and place them on the liberal/conservative continuum.

i am putting this down as you trying to understand the data, but just to be sure: do you have any reason to suspect that the data is WRONG?

[djAdvocate]

as to your other question, i think it is only seven states:


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_South


again, i don't have time to look into this.  i need to leave for work in 4 mins.

[Value Buy]

The Washington Post stopped at 2013?
Florida might be more conservative now because of Cuban immigration and retired people moving there since then, but it is considered a toss up for most parties except in the Presidential contest most of the time these days.
Georgia and Virginia have trended blue in the last decade.
Alabama and Mississippi probably more conservative since then.
Both Carolinas are probably less conservative today, granted, not be much.
I guess we can throwin Kentucky and Tennessee as progressing towards the right, but not much more than in the 60's.

What other states would be in this data?

It seems the south votes heavily for the conservative Presidential candidate, but is less conservative in the congressional and state races .

[billisonboard]

Jul 25, 2022 12:45:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 25, 2022 8:19:07 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I am attempting to understand the graph you posted. That dramatic change was the first thing that caught my eye so that is what I commented on. I questioned the accuracy of your guess based on all the information in the graph. If that quick change in voting patterns was a result of newly empowered black voters right after the Civil War, it seems it would have had a similar reverse change when that voting power was lost. 

The second thing that caught my eye was the left hand side of the graph with its "more liberal/more conservative" label. There is an indication they used Voteview data (https://voteview.com/about). I can not find on their site how those data points are determined. 

there is a standard way of determining this.  i don't have time to look it up right now.  they look at the positions that are taken by the demographic in question, and place them on the liberal/conservative continuum.

i am putting this down as you trying to understand the data, but just to be sure: do you have any reason to suspect that the data is WRONG?

Wrong? I don't know. I am struggling with the idea that Southern politicians were "liberal" for all those years, even more liberal that Democrats in general at some points. I am unsure of what issues and positions would have been used in, say 1873 or 1923, to make the determination. I have read that support for gun control measures used to be popular in the South. Now they are not. Stance on gun control measures could easily be used now to determine conservative/liberal leanings. But 130 years ago, what would that look like?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 25, 2022 13:03:17 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

The Washington Post stopped at 2013?
Florida might be more conservative now because of Cuban immigration and retired people moving there since then, but it is considered a toss up for most parties except in the Presidential contest most of the time these days.

every state in the deep South is more conservative since then.

i don't really consider Florida a tossup.  i used to think so.
but the last five or so presidential elections taught me otherwise.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 25, 2022 13:03:29 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 25, 2022 12:45:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

there is a standard way of determining this.  i don't have time to look it up right now.  they look at the positions that are taken by the demographic in question, and place them on the liberal/conservative continuum.

i am putting this down as you trying to understand the data, but just to be sure: do you have any reason to suspect that the data is WRONG?

Wrong? I don't know. I am struggling with the idea that Southern politicians were "liberal" for all those years, even more liberal that Democrats in general at some points. I am unsure of what issues and positions would have been used in, say 1873 or 1923, to make the determination. I have read that support for gun control measures used to be popular in the South. Now they are not. Stance on gun control measures could easily be used now to determine conservative/liberal leanings. But 130 years ago, what would that look like?

yeah.  hard to imagine, right?  but that is what happens when things slip into the recesses of time.  we forget things.

i don't doubt the data.  i will look into it as time allows, but Monday is my worst day for research.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 25, 2022 13:03:17 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

What other states would be in this data?

It seems the south votes heavily for the conservative Presidential candidate, but is less conservative in the congressional and state races .

which data?  the Deep South?  i think it is just those seven states, but i will look into it later.

as to your second assertion: less conservative than WHO?  than the GOP in general?  i think that is quite dubious.

[billisonboard]

Jul 25, 2022 13:52:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 25, 2022 13:03:17 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

What other states would be in this data?

It seems the south votes heavily for the conservative Presidential candidate, but is less conservative in the congressional and state races .

which data?  the Deep South?  i think it is just those seven states, but i will look into it later.

as to your second assertion: less conservative than WHO?  than the GOP in general?  i think that is quite dubious.

Your graph shows they were less conservative than Republicans in general as of 2013.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 25, 2022 14:18:17 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 25, 2022 13:52:37 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

which data?  the Deep South?  i think it is just those seven states, but i will look into it later.

as to your second assertion: less conservative than WHO?  than the GOP in general?  i think that is quite dubious.

Your graph shows they were less conservative than Republicans in general as of 2013.

i believe we were talking about July 25th, 2022, bills.
we were also talking about congressional races, not statewide or federal races.
in those races, GOP voters have successfully fenced off their districts by redistricting, and because of the whackadoodle primaries, they have to run RIGHT of even their jurisdictional demographics.  this has been the case for a little over a decade.

but perhaps things have NOT changed since then.
hard to say.  i was just saying it is conjecture.  at best.

[Value Buy]

Jul 25, 2022 13:48:12 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 25, 2022 13:03:17 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

The Washington Post stopped at 2013?
Florida might be more conservative now because of Cuban immigration and retired people moving there since then, but it is considered a toss up for most parties except in the Presidential contest most of the time these days.

every state in the deep South is more conservative since then.

i don't really consider Florida a tossup.  i used to think so.
but the last five or so presidential elections taught me otherwise.

Virginia?
Georgia? a black democrat Senator
The Carolina's?
Florida? As I said they vote Republican for the Presidency, but have a history of democrats in state government.  With so many midwesterners coming in who vote Republican they are equaled by liberals from the east also moving in and still voting Democrat so it is a wash. 
I am not sure I consider Kentucky a true red state any longer.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 27, 2022 8:34:09 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jul 25, 2022 13:48:12 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

every state in the deep South is more conservative since then.

i don't really consider Florida a tossup.  i used to think so.
but the last five or so presidential elections taught me otherwise.

Virginia?
Georgia? a black democrat Senator
The Carolina's?
Florida?

half of those are not on the Deep South list.

[djAdvocate]

all- i can't find the original article or the VoteView data.
sorry i have not been able to provide more "flesh" to this discussion.
i won't have time today, but will tomorrow.