If Trump wins in 2024

[dondub]

Jul 25, 2022 18:00:22 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 25, 2022 17:54:34 GMT -5 dondub said:

I’m not sure the losing side has enough weaponry for serious bloodshed. The other side, which will control the police and National Guard, and even the Army, will. So the inevitable protests in the street could be met with a declaration of martial law, a curfew, and scattered bloodbaths here and there. The republic will then be done and those demos remaining will hunker down and hope there won’t be house to house ‘visitations’ based on voting records.

So you don't see Inslee being able to get the Washington National Guard to rally around him in revolt?

I was speaking more of a nationwide arena. I have suspicions though about any state National Guard. Jay might get hung, and Bob Ferguson won’t be in office yet.

[hurley1980]

Jul 25, 2022 17:44:56 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 25, 2022 17:26:52 GMT -5 hurley1980 said:

I think it would result in a civil war.  I also think we would see a lot of people leaving the country and seeking refuge elsewhere. 

Thank you for that answer. If you don't mind a followup, Do you see state governments taking the lead or private militias forming?

I could see liberal states trying to come up with their own ways to deal with it.  California has 35 million people, and a lot of money, so they would be in a much better position than a smaller liberal state, but I'm not sure what they would actually be able to do.

Private militias from both sides would start fighting I think.  Liberals own a lot more guns and weapons than conservatives seem to think.

Rich/wealthy/upper middle class would all flee the country.  I'm solid middle class, and I would find a way to get my mother and me to either Canada, or someplace nice in Mexico. The ones that would be really screwed are the poor and rural residents, but they are mostly conservative anyway, so I doubt they would want to leave if our democracy falls.  And if an elected president was removed from office because congress/SC didn't like it, this country would be over.  I think we would end up like Syria. 

It would be the end of the America we all know. 

[countrygirl2]

I am sending our passports in for renewal, they are ready.

But what I wonder about is will our money be worth anything and can we get it out of the country. Also wondering if it should all be converted to cash and dug in somewhere. Hubs thinks he would even get rid of social security, I do too.  NEVER in my life have I been worried about the continued existence of the USA as a free country. We are old and might live 20 more years at the most, but I think we are going to see changes we cannot even imagine.

[hurley1980]

Jul 25, 2022 18:37:13 GMT -5 dondub said:

Jul 25, 2022 18:00:22 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

So you don't see Inslee being able to get the Washington National Guard to rally around him in revolt?

I was speaking more of a nationwide arena. I have suspicions though about any state National Guard. Jay might get hung, and Bob Ferguson won’t be in office yet.

Ya, I don't think state national guards would be very reliable.

But another thought, we might (big might) be able to get assistance from other allied countries.  Most of the world liked America much better BEFORE the GQP infiltrated our government  It is in a lot of their best interests that we continue to function as a strong leader in world relations.  And most of the people in Canada, Europe, Australia a HATE Trumpers.  But then again, they might not want to get involved. 

I feel like France would provide some help, since they were such an integral part of the Revolutionary War, and thus part of our history of independence. 

[happyhoix]

I think the states would quickly turn into blue strongholds on the coasts and large red (but mostly empty) areas in the middle of the country, and the South.

Hopefully before we destroy ourselves we would break into these 3 areas - maybe 4, if Texas decides to go on their own.

The red states could make their theocracy led by a dictator - I don’t know what the coasts would become.

We’d lose any international standing. DH and I would have to move - and I suspect a lot of industries would pull out of the red areas as well. Dictators like to seize things, including businesses. Anyone who thinks gays and trans should have rights, or women should be able to control their bodies, who parents who want their kids to learn something other than Bible stories and Creationism will also relocate.

It will be sad.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 25, 2022 18:00:22 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jul 25, 2022 17:54:34 GMT -5 dondub said:

I’m not sure the losing side has enough weaponry for serious bloodshed. The other side, which will control the police and National Guard, and even the Army, will. So the inevitable protests in the street could be met with a declaration of martial law, a curfew, and scattered bloodbaths here and there. The republic will then be done and those demos remaining will hunker down and hope there won’t be house to house ‘visitations’ based on voting records.

So you don't see Inslee being able to get the Washington National Guard to rally around him in revolt?

i think dondub's point, and one i have been making ever since i read the discussion between Jefferson and Madison on the 2nd Amendment, is that the party that controls our standing army will control the country.  period.  the dissenting party will find themselves at the end of a rifle, or something far worse.  my little pea shooter will mean nothing to a 63 ton M1A1 rolling up my driveway.  that thing can mow down entire towns.  and it will, if there is sufficient resistance.

in short, we are done for.

there is a reason Trump so admired the huge displays in Moscow.  he dreams of that for the US.  it is probably the only thing that gets him hard any more.

[billisonboard]

Jul 25, 2022 23:02:49 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 25, 2022 18:00:22 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

So you don't see Inslee being able to get the Washington National Guard to rally around him in revolt?

i think dondub's point, and one i have been making ever since i read the discussion between Jefferson and Madison on the 2nd Amendment, is that the party that controls our standing army will control the country.  period.  the dissenting party will find themselves at the end of a rifle, or something far worse.  my little pea shooter will mean nothing to a 63 ton M1A1 rolling up my driveway.  that thing can mow down entire towns.  and it will, if there is sufficient resistance.

in short, we are done for.

there is a reason Trump so admired the huge displays in Moscow.  he dreams of that for the US.  it is probably the only thing that gets him hard any more.

Odds wouldn't be good. There are certainly plenty who won't take the risk or would run away. I do think some will offer resistance.

[countrygirl2]

I would love to join the resistance, but at my age? How much help would I be or more of a hindrance, sigh.

I hate what the future may bring to our dear country. I think the military would likely splinter and then we would have breakaway groups fighting. I am so afraid of what will happen. 

And I hate to lose everything we have worked so hard for. Could we survive longer than most, probably, but our age would get us. I just wish we were much younger, as we would give them hell.

[billisonboard]

Jul 26, 2022 15:02:45 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I would love to join the resistance, but at my age? How much help would I be or more of a hindrance, sigh.

I hate what the future may bring to our dear country. I think the military would likely splinter and then we would have breakaway groups fighting. I am so afraid of what will happen. 

And I hate to lose everything we have worked so hard for. Could we survive longer than most, probably, but our age would get us. I just wish we were much younger, as we would give them hell.

There will be need for observers, transport, sanctuary providers, etc. Not just fighters. We older folks can find a way to be useful.

[hurley1980]

Jul 26, 2022 15:02:45 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I would love to join the resistance, but at my age? How much help would I be or more of a hindrance, sigh.

I hate what the future may bring to our dear country. I think the military would likely splinter and then we would have breakaway groups fighting. I am so afraid of what will happen. 

And I hate to lose everything we have worked so hard for. Could we survive longer than most, probably, but our age would get us. I just wish we were much younger, as we would give them hell.

I wouldn't, even though I am pretty young still, in good shape, and could offer lots of assistance.  They say "when someone shows you who they are, believe them."  The country has shown me who they are.  They mostly either see me as a second class citizen, or are to too indifferent about politics to to do anything when rights are actively being taken away.  I blame those who did nothing as much as I blame the republicans who voted for it.

And it's not just the rights being taken away, but additional rights we should have had by now that have constantly been voted down.....national healthcare, a livable minimum wage, affordable college.  There is so much wrong with this country, it is just not worth fighting for. 

[billisonboard]

Jul 26, 2022 15:30:04 GMT -5 hurley1980 said:

Jul 26, 2022 15:02:45 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I would love to join the resistance, but at my age? How much help would I be or more of a hindrance, sigh.

I hate what the future may bring to our dear country. I think the military would likely splinter and then we would have breakaway groups fighting. I am so afraid of what will happen. 

And I hate to lose everything we have worked so hard for. Could we survive longer than most, probably, but our age would get us. I just wish we were much younger, as we would give them hell.

I wouldn't, even though I am pretty young still, in good shape, and could offer lots of assistance.  They say "when someone shows you who they are, believe them."  The country has shown me who they are.  They mostly either see me as a second class citizen, or are to too indifferent about politics to to do anything when rights are actively being taken away.  I blame those who did nothing as much as I blame the republicans who voted for it.

And it's not just the rights being taken away, but additional rights we should have had by now that have constantly been voted down.....national healthcare, a livable minimum wage, affordable college.  There is so much wrong with this country, it is just not worth fighting for. 

If Trump were to win legitimately, I would be on the sideline with you. But if a healthy majority of Americans vote against him and he is handed the office anyway, that could be a different story. I would join a large movement but not one fighting him and general apathy.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 26, 2022 15:30:04 GMT -5 hurley1980 said:

Jul 26, 2022 15:02:45 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I would love to join the resistance, but at my age? How much help would I be or more of a hindrance, sigh.

I hate what the future may bring to our dear country. I think the military would likely splinter and then we would have breakaway groups fighting. I am so afraid of what will happen. 

And I hate to lose everything we have worked so hard for. Could we survive longer than most, probably, but our age would get us. I just wish we were much younger, as we would give them hell.

I wouldn't, even though I am pretty young still, in good shape, and could offer lots of assistance.  They say "when someone shows you who they are, believe them."  The country has shown me who they are.  They mostly either see me as a second class citizen, or are to too indifferent about politics to to do anything when rights are actively being taken away.  I blame those who did nothing as much as I blame the republicans who voted for it.

And it's not just the rights being taken away, but additional rights we should have had by now that have constantly been voted down.....national healthcare, a livable minimum wage, affordable college.  There is so much wrong with this country, it is just not worth fighting for. 

don't forget the ERA.  that might have been handy, right now.

[Tennesseer]

I don't think trump will win in 2024. I am estimating by this time next year trump will be politically destroyed. And well he should be.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 26, 2022 16:28:10 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I don't think trump will win in 2024. I am estimating by this time next year trump will be politically destroyed. And well he should be.

i would describe it as mortally wounded.
he will still hold sway with maybe HALF of the GOP.
which is a huge problem for them.
even if he is in JAIL they might vote for him.

if the GOP is fucked, that is probably just fine.  what might happen is that the Trumps will form their own MAGA Party, and leave the GOP to scramble for remaining votes.  that would result in a massive sweep for Democrats, which is precisely what this country needs.  

the alternative is the one they have been calculating since 2015, which is probably untenable at this point.  i don't think it results in the same landslide, so that might continue to be their choice: to claim the GOP is MAGA.

[countrygirl2]

I'm worried they will take over all the states AG's and just declare him president even if he loses. I totally expect that.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 26, 2022 17:55:19 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I'm worried they will take over all the states AG's and just declare him president even if he loses. I totally expect that.

the states where his best able to do that are purple states.  in other words, they are likely to be contested races, at best.  i would not count on him holding sway.

remember one other thing.  and that is that if he does end up splitting the ticket, he will end up losing a lot of states that he might otherwise win.  and again, that means that this will be a lot more competitive than if he simply played nice, which is impossible for him.

i am not sure if anyone has analyzed what the likely outcomes are.  but thinking through it, i think Tenn is right that it will be tough for him to win.

[tbop77]

Sometimes I wonder how stupid he thinks American citizens are.  Giving his big fucking speech yesterday on Law and Order.
Meanwhile:


The emails show that Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, and John Eastman all had correspondence with Trump campaign officials who worked with outside lawyers to assemble their list of alternative electors list, even though they knew it might not hold up to scrutiny. One email shows that Jack Wilenchik, a Phoenix-based lawyer who helped with the plot in Arizona, contacted Trump campaign strategic adviser Boris Epshteyn with a suggestion of how to brand their electors to not be “fake,” as he, himself, called them.



“We would just be sending in ‘fake’ electoral votes to Pence so that ‘someone’ in Congress can make an objection when they start counting votes, and start arguing that the ‘fake’ votes should be counted,” Wilenchik said. He later sent a follow-up email noting that “‘alternative’ votes is probably a better term than ‘fake’ votes.”

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/stunning-new-emails-show-trump-team-calling-their-own-electoral-vote-scheme-fake/ar-AA1005yQ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=22601848251844d8951f524ae017a1fc

[Value Buy]

Jul 25, 2022 19:29:43 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I am sending our passports in for renewal, they are ready.

But what I wonder about is will our money be worth anything and can we get it out of the country. Also wondering if it should all be converted to cash and dug in somewhere. Hubs thinks he would even get rid of social security, I do too.  NEVER in my life have I been worried about the continued existence of the USA as a free country. We are old and might live 20 more years at the most, but I think we are going to see changes we cannot even imagine.

Put it in bitcoin!

[Value Buy]

Okay, people........
Again, Trump will not be running in 2024. Only way he runs is if the current terrorists in Congress try to put him up for trial. (they will not)
And if he does enter the primary, he will not win the primary. Republicans are turning away from Trump slowly but surely
If he runs as an Independent, and if Joe was running, Joe would win due to Republicans splitting their vote and the destruction of this country will be completed.

Quit beating the dead  

I believe we will have two candidates running against each other for the office in the fall election and neither one will be over 60 yrs old. The time of a babyboomer is over.
Unfortunately, I cannot predict who will win the Republican primary, But dems will go with a progressive liberal Governor, probably, Newsome, or Pete from the Biden Administration.
I lean towards Pete because they believe they have to break that glass ceiling of an openly gay man.  


(Truth can be stranger than fiction) 

[happyhoix]

Jul 26, 2022 18:01:43 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 26, 2022 17:55:19 GMT -5 countrygirl2 said:

I'm worried they will take over all the states AG's and just declare him president even if he loses. I totally expect that.

the states where his best able to do that are purple states.  in other words, they are likely to be contested races, at best.  i would not count on him holding sway.

remember one other thing.  and that is that if he does end up splitting the ticket, he will end up losing a lot of states that he might otherwise win.  and again, that means that this will be a lot more competitive than if he simply played nice, which is impossible for him.

i am not sure if anyone has analyzed what the likely outcomes are.  but thinking through it, i think Tenn is right that it will be tough for him to win.

Imagine if Trump and Pence and DeSantis all run in the primaries. Splits the MAGA voters between the evangelicals/more mainstream MAGAs, the MAGA heads who want someone less ancient, and the MAGA devotees who will never abandon Trump, even if he sets a puppy on fire on Tv.

Hopefully there will be a non MAGA option who doesn’t scare the independents and who can present an actual, real life platform (other than just being as outrageous as possible) and he can slip past all the MAGA bullshit and back to somewhat normal politics.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 27, 2022 8:28:13 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Okay, people........
Again, Trump will not be running in 2024. 

(Truth can be stranger than fiction) 

what makes you believe that?
he sure is ACTING like someone who is running.

[swamp]

Jul 26, 2022 16:28:10 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I don't think trump will win in 2024. I am estimating by this time next year trump will be politically destroyed. And well he should be.

Please please please let it be true.  

[swamp]

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/27/justice-department-investigating-trump/

Interesting take by the WaPo.   Rubin sets out how trump is losing support. 

[djAdvocate]

Jul 27, 2022 13:44:37 GMT -5 swamp said:

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/27/justice-department-investigating-trump/

Interesting take by the WaPo.   Rubin sets out how trump is losing support. 

paywall.  can you copy some of it to the thread?

[swamp]

If you’ve paid attention to much of the mainstream media coverage of the House Jan. 6 committee’s hearings, you might think the proceedings wouldn’t change anybody’s mind. In fact, public opinion does shift when the media covers an alarming story for weeks on end. (Recall how coverage of President Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal sent his approval ratings into a downward spiral from which he has yet to recover.) And with The Post’s bombshell report that the Justice Department is investigating defeated former president Donald Trump’s coup attempt, Trump’s loss of support and legal troubles will likely intensify.




The most recent CNN poll shows the percentage of Republicans who want Trump to run for president in 2024 has fallen six points from February, to 44 percent. The percentage of those who think President Biden legitimately won rose from 62 percent in February to 69 percent. The percentage who didn’t think Biden legitimately won dropped six points.



Some 79 percent of Americans think Trump acted illegally (45 percent) or at least unethically (34 percent). CNN reports, “Nearly all Democrats (97%) and a broad majority of independents (83%) say Trump acted unethically or illegally in trying to remain in office, but so too do a majority of Republicans (55%).” Sixty-one percent think he encouraged violence, and 77 percent think he could have done more to stop violence during the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.

In a similar vein, a recent Morning Consult-Politico poll shows 63 percent of independent voters say Trump is at least somewhat responsible for Jan. 6, up from 56 percent in early June. The pollsters report, “The share of independents who now blame Trump for Jan. 6 is the highest on record, with the next highest share (60%) coming at the height of his second impeachment trial in February 2021.” Coincidentally or not, the poll also shows Democrats have their largest advantage over Republicans — 37 percent to 26 percent — on the congressional generic ballot, which measures which party voters want in control of Congress, since September 2021.




It might have been hard for jaded Beltway reporters to imagine, but powerful evidence presented dramatically in a easily accessible way — along with steady amplification by the media — may well be draining Trump of his support and encouraging Republicans to look elsewhere for a leader. No wonder the right-wing editorial pages of the New York Post and Wall Street Journal, both Rupert Murdoch publications, have broken sharply with Trump. Trump of all people should understand how the aura of being a “loser” turns people off.



If you feel as though the pace of revelations has picked up, you’re not alone. On Tuesday, the New York Times published another blockbuster report regarding Trump’s phony elector scheme. The Times reviewed emails that show one lawyer involved in the scheme “repeatedly used the word ‘fake’ to refer to the so-called electors, who were intended to provide Vice President Mike Pence and Mr. Trump’s allies in Congress a rationale for derailing the congressional process of certifying the outcome.” That’s classic “admissions against interest” — the sort of self-incriminating statements that light up prosecutors’ eyes. Plus, with more names popping up in emails, the pool of witnesses grows. The Post’s report also revealed that the Justice Department has the phone logs of senior Trump aides.

Once an investigation picks up steam, it often speeds up exponentially. Leads beget more leads. Witnesses put investigators on the trail of more witnesses. And in this case, the witnesses with the most knowledge of critical events (e.g., former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, chief coup architect John Eastman) have every reason to sprint to prosecutors to strike deals — before the others make their deals first. Remember also that there are three separate investigations underway: one conducted by the Justice Department, one by the district attorney in Fulton County, Ga., and one by the Jan. 6 committee.



Indeed, some of the witnesses — including the now rarely seen Meadows, who avoided being charged with contempt of Congress — might have already begun cooperating with prosecutors. (Meadows was recently described by committee member Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) as a “star witness” because “his texts that he did produce is the thing that really gave us the road map for where to go next.”)



The question now is not whether Trump will be exposed to criminal investigations but how far along and how fast they are moving. Meanwhile, the public’s view of his conduct grows ever more negative, with possible consequences for his party. If Trump feels a tad claustrophobic, it’s because the walls are closing in.

[djAdvocate]

there are actually three strands to the DOJ inquiry at this point, according to legal experts.

the first is the fraud aspect of the last three months of Trump's term.  this would include the fake elector scheme, which was even CALLED the fake elector scheme by WH personnel.

the second is the vote tampering issue, including the proposal to send the militia in to seize voting machines and to bully and cajole state officials to cough up votes.

and finally, there was the insurrection, whereby Trump acted in service of the insurrection rather than the American public (minus the insurrectionists) on January 6th, and every day since then.

so, yeah, this is a twice baked potato going for a third bake at this juncture.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 27, 2022 13:50:49 GMT -5 swamp said:

Indeed, some of the witnesses — including the now rarely seen Meadows, who avoided being charged with contempt of Congress — might have already begun cooperating with prosecutors. (Meadows was recently described by committee member Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) as a “star witness” because “his texts that he did produce is the thing that really gave us the road map for where to go next.”)



The question now is not whether Trump will be exposed to criminal investigations but how far along and how fast they are moving. Meanwhile, the public’s view of his conduct grows ever more negative, with possible consequences for his party. If Trump feels a tad claustrophobic, it’s because the walls are closing in.

i found the bolded comment above very interesting.  didn't know that before today.

[cronewitch]

Trump said we stole the election so maybe we can. The vice president may not certify the election on Jan 6, 2025, so Biden will stay in office, or we elected someone else. We could get arms and storm the capital. 

[tbop77]

Jul 27, 2022 8:28:13 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Okay, people........
Again, Trump will not be running in 2024. Only way he runs is if the current terrorists in Congress try to put him up for trial. (they will not)
And if he does enter the primary, he will not win the primary. Republicans are turning away from Trump slowly but surely
If he runs as an Independent, and if Joe was running, Joe would win due to Republicans splitting their vote and the destruction of this country will be completed.

Quit beating the dead  

I believe we will have two candidates running against each other for the office in the fall election and neither one will be over 60 yrs old. The time of a babyboomer is over.
Unfortunately, I cannot predict who will win the Republican primary, But dems will go with a progressive liberal Governor, probably, Newsome, or Pete from the Biden Administration.
I lean towards Pete because they believe they have to break that glass ceiling of an openly gay man.  


(Truth can be stranger than fiction) 

That is as close to hearing your opinion on the J6 riots that I have ever read.  Sounds like the committee members investigating the riot are terrorist. All the plotting to overthrow the election was what?  No big deal, I guess.  The tweet about Pence while he was sitting in his dining room watching those police officers get the shit kicked out of them was the  PERFECT tweet?  

I do agree with you on one thing, truth is stranger than fiction.  I never in my life would have believed the Republican party would turn so far away from the Constitution that I would no longer recognize it.  I never thought someone who served this country would dismiss people trying to overturn and election.  And you worry about Biden destroying this country?  Honey, Trump accomplished that goal all by himself.  

[djAdvocate]

i don't think the GOP has ever been that interested in the constitution.

but the last half century has definitely undermined any interest they have in the UNITED States.