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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Jun 14, 2022 21:08:54 GMT -5
I like this chart. Really helps to put things in perspective.
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CCL
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Post by CCL on Jun 15, 2022 2:50:58 GMT -5
adding - looks like peak was first week of January so we are only 5 months. I think the average is 18 months from peak to trough so we likely have a ways to go. I'm starting to formulate my plan based on at least one more year like this. I sure hope we don't have another year of this.
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CCL
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Post by CCL on Jun 15, 2022 2:54:14 GMT -5
Only thing I'm changing is buying some stocks that I was waiting to go low. Picked up some Amazon. Picking up cruise stocks since they give obc and I stupidly only picked up enough for one in 2020. What is obc?
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Jun 15, 2022 6:27:05 GMT -5
adding - looks like peak was first week of January so we are only 5 months. I think the average is 18 months from peak to trough so we likely have a ways to go. I'm starting to formulate my plan based on at least one more year like this. I sure hope we don't have another year of this. I'd be surprised if it wasn't at least a year.
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NoNamePerson
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Post by NoNamePerson on Jun 15, 2022 6:54:58 GMT -5
Only thing I'm changing is buying some stocks that I was waiting to go low. Picked up some Amazon. Picking up cruise stocks since they give obc and I stupidly only picked up enough for one in 2020. What is obc? On board credit?
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Jun 15, 2022 9:18:21 GMT -5
Graph is interesting (and gives hope ) I worry the US will be like Japan and stay in a slump Today lots of green compared to yesterday’s sold red
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cyanne
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Post by cyanne on Jun 15, 2022 10:49:05 GMT -5
Why would he stop the oil pipe line end leases he took more oil out out the system than the war has(that he blames) canceled tax breaks for electric cars, no understructure in place to support them The current high price of gasoline is caused by a lack of refinery capacity. Even if he had kept the pipeline and leases there would not be an increase in refining capacity and would not make a difference.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jun 15, 2022 11:22:38 GMT -5
I like this chart. Really helps to put things in perspective. So if this is “average”, we have 9 months to go. Not too far off from my 12 month expectation. Cue to start shoveling into the market!
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Jun 15, 2022 11:30:51 GMT -5
I like this chart. Really helps to put things in perspective. So if this is “average”, we have 9 months to go. Not too far off from my 12 month expectation. Cue to start shoveling into the market! I'm wondering where the "start" is calculated though. If it's the start of the Bear Market that was just official this week.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jun 15, 2022 11:35:28 GMT -5
So if this is “average”, we have 9 months to go. Not too far off from my 12 month expectation. Cue to start shoveling into the market! I'm wondering where the "start" is calculated though. If it's the start of the Bear Market that was just official this week. If peak to trough, the peak is the market top, what I was thinking. But it can then take many additional years to regain the top.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Jun 15, 2022 11:39:45 GMT -5
Why would he stop the oil pipe line end leases he took more oil out out the system than the war has(that he blames) canceled tax breaks for electric cars, no understructure in place to support them The current high price of gasoline is caused by a lack of refinery capacity. Even if he had kept the pipeline and leases there would not be an increase in refining capacity and would not make a difference. The US is down about million barrels/day Is this from refineries (end products) or source coming into refineries?? Not all the shortage is from Putin aggressive was on Ukraine
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jun 15, 2022 13:02:35 GMT -5
Why would he stop the oil pipe line end leases he took more oil out out the system than the war has(that he blames) canceled tax breaks for electric cars, no understructure in place to support them Cancelling leases had ZERO effect on gas prices. It would have taken years to get any of that oil to market. And as I recall, the tax breaks for electric vehicles was always scheduled to run out over time, and nothing Biden has done has any effect on that. (I would probably have more to rebut your claims if I could figure out what you were actually saying.) But again, you seem to be completely uninterested in actual facts. So, you do you, and realize that not a single thinking person here will take you seriously.
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Jun 15, 2022 13:12:12 GMT -5
The tax breaks on GM and Tesla electric vehicles expired, they had a limit based on number of cars sold. It was nothing Biden did. He was trying to get a $12,500 EV credit included with the infrastructure bill, but I don't know if it happened or not.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Jun 15, 2022 15:07:42 GMT -5
The tax breaks on GM and Tesla electric vehicles expired, they had a limit based on number of cars sold. It was nothing Biden did. He was trying to get a $12,500 EV credit included with the infrastructure bill, but I don't know if it happened or not. Don’t know what happened to EV credit but unfortunately Biden made it political by very obviously ignoring Tesla when speaking about EVs. Yes Tesla already finished with the EV credits Biden only interested in the companies with unions
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 16, 2022 15:08:50 GMT -5
i have shifted from equities to commodities.
today is a good example of how efficient this change has been. CEF (gold and silver) +1.31%, GRU (Grains) + 3.46%, PALL (Palladium) + 1.14%, DBC (basic commodities <mostly oil>) +0.44%
my shift is only about 10%. but 10% out of equities staved a loss of 3%, and this portfolio is +10% since this crap started, so i hedged about 4% return there against a 30% loss. i only wish i had been more aggressive about it....but it is not over yet....so we will see how it goes.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 16, 2022 15:10:40 GMT -5
So if this is “average”, we have 9 months to go. Not too far off from my 12 month expectation. Cue to start shoveling into the market! I'm wondering where the "start" is calculated though. If it's the start of the Bear Market that was just official this week. it pretty clearly starts BEFORE the bear market is actually entered. you can see from the graphs that the market is still going up before it starts. so, yeah, if you wait until it is indicated, your opportunity to shelter assets is at least half gone.
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Jun 16, 2022 15:38:34 GMT -5
I'm wondering where the "start" is calculated though. If it's the start of the Bear Market that was just official this week. it pretty clearly starts BEFORE the bear market is actually entered. you can see from the graphs that the market is still going up before it starts. so, yeah, if you wait until it is indicated, your opportunity to shelter assets is at least half gone. Yeah, it makes more sense to me now that I realize the dips in the bull are already represented in the chart and then they inverted it for the prolonged downs. I was thinking if it's not officially a bear market until we're down 20% if we're down 10-15% for months and then it goes that final stretch did we suffer for months without them "counting"?
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gs11rmb
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Post by gs11rmb on Jun 17, 2022 8:21:06 GMT -5
My DH and I are down about $150,000 . I'm not going to change how much we're saving and just keep putting it away every month but it is psychologically hard to see it keep dropping. One thing we're probably going to do different is not take out a car loan. DH wants to buy a car next year and my last car loan was only 1.5% so it seemed sensible to borrow and invest in the market. Right now we're leaning toward just paying cash. To end up paying 3% on a car loan when also losing 10% in the market might just be too painful for us!
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jun 17, 2022 10:02:22 GMT -5
My DH and I are down about $150,000 . I'm not going to change how much we're saving and just keep putting it away every month but it is psychologically hard to see it keep dropping. One thing we're probably going to do different is not take out a car loan. DH wants to buy a car next year and my last car loan was only 1.5% so it seemed sensible to borrow and invest in the market. Right now we're leaning toward just paying cash. To end up paying 3% on a car loan when also losing 10% in the market might just be too painful for us! Yes, I was super busy all day yesterday and was really rocked when I tuned in after work. I was confused by the market shooting up after the fed rate hike, as I was expecting yesterdays performance the day before, then I thought - oh maybe everyone thinks the market already account for the anticipated rate hike, and then I wasn't expecting the big drop yesterday. So, my timing instincts are super off! So will try to continue to buy and hold.
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Post by minnesotapaintlady on Jun 17, 2022 10:34:22 GMT -5
Yesterday was an ouch. It hasn't been bothering me much this year, but when I looked and retirement had fallen into the 600K bracket when it should be more like 900K with the contributions I made this year I felt a touch of sting. Luckily sitting around doing nothing is kind of my super power, so I'll just keep plugging along. I did look at maybe buying back into the S&P with what I had transferred to bonds a couple years ago when I was trying to get close to 80/20 allocation, but the S&P price is still a lot higher than it was when I sold it.
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pooks
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Post by pooks on Jun 17, 2022 11:06:05 GMT -5
Right now I am shopping, not like a good YMer for stocks and real estate, but stuff. When things fell apart in 2008, I bought a car (which I still have) and got a decent deal. Right now I want a class B RV, so I am watching to see if there is movement on pricing for new or used. It distracts me from how bad everything we have in the stock market is doing.
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laterbloomer
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Post by laterbloomer on Jun 17, 2022 13:47:44 GMT -5
I'm trying hard to convince myself this is a good thing for me so I can buy cheap and it will all bounce back in time for me trying to retire. But it sure is hard to buy and watch the value drop below book value
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jun 17, 2022 14:11:37 GMT -5
Assuming we avoid the "lost decade(s)" like Japan suffered through, it is a good thing for you, as long as you continue buying and have time to recover. I began investing in January, 1987, nine months before Black Monday when the Dow dropped over 22% in one day. I realized very quickly that the only people who really lost money on that day were the ones who sold and locked in those losses. Everyone else recovered and thrived. We will after this too.
This is also the primary reason why I am so glad to have put myself into the position I am in currently. I have a substantial investment portfolio, but I really don't "need" any of it. I have purposely kept my expenses low, so that all I need to spend is easily covered by other income without selling investments. If the market is up, I will sell and spend the money on things. If it is down, I can Roth convert instead. I effectively never have to sell low during a downturn, and that is incredibly beneficial to my outlook. Not working is wonderful. Not working and having zero stress is even better.
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seriousthistime
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Post by seriousthistime on Jun 18, 2022 17:16:55 GMT -5
The tax breaks on GM and Tesla electric vehicles expired, they had a limit based on number of cars sold. It was nothing Biden did. He was trying to get a $12,500 EV credit included with the infrastructure bill, but I don't know if it happened or not. Don’t know what happened to EV credit but unfortunately Biden made it political by very obviously ignoring Tesla when speaking about EVs. Yes Tesla already finished with the EV credits Biden only interested in the companies with unions I fail to see the cause and effect here. The Tesla tax break expired because Biden didn't kiss Elon's ass when he spoke in Detroit about EVs?
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gambler
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"the education of a man is never completed until he dies" Robert E. Lee
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Post by gambler on Jun 18, 2022 18:25:22 GMT -5
The only fact to matters to me is the Balance in my accounts are the ballances. They have gone down regularly under this fool that can not even stay on bike.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jun 18, 2022 18:46:42 GMT -5
The only fact to matters to me is the Balance in my accounts are the ballances. They have gone down regularly under this fool that can not even stay on bike. Fortunately, most of us are a bit more discerning, and actually look for reasons for why things happen. Things are happening around the world that affect much, and Biden has very little to do with any of it. And for the record, I averaged setting a new all-time high balance more than once per week during Biden's first year, and that is without adding a single new dollar invested. Biden doesn't deserve any more blame for the downturn than either he or Trump deserve credit for the increase previously. Wallow in your delusion all you wish. It is still true that no thinking person takes you seriously.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 18, 2022 19:24:48 GMT -5
The only fact to matters to me is the Balance in my accounts are the ballances. They have gone down regularly under this fool that can not even stay on bike. Trump had to take a golf cart at the G8 to go uphill when everyone else was able to walk. Biden is able to do aerobic exercise on a regular basis. Something that trump is entirely incapable of doing, and you have the gall to make fun of someone who is doing exactly what a physician would recommend a patient do to keep him healthy and functional. You are a miserable excuse of a human being
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gambler
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"the education of a man is never completed until he dies" Robert E. Lee
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Post by gambler on Jun 18, 2022 19:50:21 GMT -5
Nothing else matters but the bottom line. He is a total failure rating of 36% make him the worst clown ever
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jun 18, 2022 19:59:44 GMT -5
Nothing else matters but the bottom line. He is a total failure rating of 36% make him the worst clown ever Wrong again. And worse, not even close to being true on either score. Your history shows over 1500 posts. If one had the time to go back and review, would there be even one worth reading for anything other than comedic relief? Being both wrong and (seemingly) borderline-illiterate in most every post can't be good. Trust us.
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gambler
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"the education of a man is never completed until he dies" Robert E. Lee
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Post by gambler on Jun 18, 2022 21:13:34 GMT -5
He has got a little ways to go but he will get there
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