Economies of GOP -vs- Dem Presidents

[djAdvocate]

a poster on another thread posited that they have done better under Republican presidents than Democratic ones.  until Trump won, the GOP was my party of choice.  i was raised in a strong GOP household.  so, please don't think i care one stitch what the data says.  i don't.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents'

this is a really good repository of information.  if anyone finds errors in it, post the corrections on this thread.  here is a summary:

in the last TWELVE presidencies:

four of the top five best growth rates were under Democratic presidents.  six of the seven worst growth rates were under GOP presidents.  Trump came in last at 1.6% GDP growth.

in the last FIFTEEN presidencies:

Democratic presidents presided over all seven of the highest job growth rates.
Republican presidents presided over seven of the eight worst job growth rates, including the bottom four, and the worst (Trump).
If we look at "changes in UE rate", seven of the eight best were under Democrats (Reagan was the 8th).
All seven of the worst UE change performances were under Republicans.

this is directly from Wikipedia (but I believe it to be true)

"Stock market returns are also higher under Democratic presidents. CNN reported in September 2020 that: “Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% during years when Democrats controlled the White House, according to CFRA Research. That's well ahead of the 6.9% average gain under Republicans.” Per share earnings grew 12.8% on average under Democratic presidents, versus 1.8% for Republicans.[3]"

of the last (12) recessions, (10) have happened under GOP presidents.

Summary:



Variable                     Democrats Republicans Difference P-value

Real GDP growth         4.33%         2.54%      1.79         pp 0.01

Job creation rate %     2.59%         1.17%      1.42         pp 0.02

Unemployment rate % 5.64%         6.01%      0.38         pp 0.62

Unemployment rate change -0.83 pp +1.09 pp 1.92        pp 0.01

Inflation rate (GDP deflator) 2.89% 3.44%      0.55         pp 0.59

Budget deficit % potential GDP 2.09% 2.78%  0.69         pp 0.30

Stock market S&P 500 annual return 8.35% 2.70% 5.65  pp 0.15


Democratic presidents outperformed, ON AVERAGE, in EVERY CATEGORY.

i can't fathom how anyone "did better" under Republican presidents, except by sheer luck.

NOTE TO THE BOARD: i have researched this many times, which is why i trust the Wikipedia data.  it agrees with my research, to the extent i can remember it.

[djAdvocate]

if the data showed the opposite of this, here is what i would say:

"Republicans run on the fact that they are better for the US economy, and this data shows that.  Democrats will have to figure out another way of battling Republicans because the facts are against them, here".

i am not one to argue with facts.

but 40% of the voting public is, apparently.

[resolution]

I usually bring up the difference in stock market performance whenever Dad starts the doom and gloom about how they will lose all their money now that Biden is president. I tell him not to worry because historically stocks do better under democrats, so just sit tight and ride it out.

[resolution]

My net worth did go up by more under Trump than it did under any other president, because we finally hit the critical mass where our investments were earning more each year than our regular incomes, so they kept compounding. I am hopeful that the trend will continue under any presidency though.

[djAdvocate]

that happened to me under Clinton.  that is when i went from basically owning nothing to owning a thriving business.  but i try to be objective about this stuff.  and that means looking BEYOND my circumstances.

[happyhoix]

A lot of people decide how they are doing financially based on what talking heads say. If the talking heads claim it’s a financial meltdown and our lives are spinning down the crapper, people will start thinking their personal finances are doing the same.

I remember when the market dropped significantly when Covid first showed up. My 401k certainly took a hit. I remember at the time all the conservative talking heads claimed that drop was caused by the Dems talking up Covid- not Trumps fault for being in charge when it happened.

With a little creativity and alternative facts you can blame all the bad stuff on someone else and bask in the good stuff.

[djAdvocate]

Apr 22, 2022 9:45:58 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

A lot of people decide how they are doing financially based on what talking heads say. If the talking heads claim it’s a financial meltdown and our lives are spinning down the crapper, people will start thinking their personal finances are doing the same.

I remember when the market dropped significantly when Covid first showed up. My 401k certainly took a hit. I remember at the time all the conservative talking heads claimed that drop was caused by the Dems talking up Covid- not Trumps fault for being in charge when it happened.

With a little creativity and alternative facts you can blame all the bad stuff on someone else and bask in the good stuff.

i think it is more complicated than that.  i think that they gut check what the talking head says, and if it agrees with their GUT, then they believe it.

here is WHY this caveat is important: because irrational beliefs about a president can override reality.  in other words, if a person is an ardent racist, he will believe that nothing Obama could possibly do would ever be good for the country.  so, all achievements would be overlooked.

if that racist elected Trump to "overturn" every "bad" thing that Obama did, then it wouldn't matter whether Trump succeeded or not, only that he was not Obama.  therefore, there would be glowing praise of Trump despite the fact that he performed WORSE than Obama in EVERY aspect of his job.  it simply would not matter, because the IRRATIONAL thoughts of Obama would override the data.

i used to think that people were better than that.  i don't any more.

[djAdvocate]

oh, in case anyone thinks i was playing the race card there, i was, but ONLY for illustration.  here is another one.

if you are a "free market capitalist" and you believed (wrongly) that Obama was a socialist, then that would ALSO color your perception.  if you are a proud Christian, and you think that Obama is a Muslim, that would ALSO color your perception.  none of these perceptions were correct, so that would be pure bigotry.

at least the fact that Obama was black is not something we generally debate, unlike those other things.  thus, it is a convenient choice for examples.