US Omicron surge

[Opti]

www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-coronavirus-americans-may-be-faced-with-a-different-reality-in-january-as-covid-19-sweeps-through-the-nation-experts-warn/ar-AASkCgm?ocid=msedgntp


The US is ringing in the new year amid a Covid-19 surge that experts warn is exploding at unprecedented speed and could alter daily life for many Americans during the first month of 2022.



"Omicron is truly everywhere," Dr. Megan Ranney, a professor of emergency medicine at Brown University's School of Public Health, told CNN on Friday night. "What I am so worried about over the next month or so is that our economy is going to shut down, not because of policies from the federal government or from the state governments, but rather because so many of us are ill."

The nation broke records at least four times this week for its seven-day average of new daily Covid-19 cases, reporting an all-time high of more than 386,000 new daily infections Friday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. The high case count is already causing disruptions in the country.



In New York City, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) is plagued with staffing issues and announced three subway lines -- the B, Z and W -- which service various parts of the boroughs, have been suspended.

"At the beginning of this pandemic... we all were taught, you have a significant exposure if you're within six feet of somebody and you're in contact with them for more than 15 minutes. All these rules are out the window," Reiner said. "This is a hyper-contagious virus."



Now, even a quick, transient encounter can lead to an infection, Reiner added, including if someone's mask is loose, or a person quickly pulls their mask down, or an individual enters an elevator in which someone else has just coughed.



"This is how you can contract this virus," Reiner said.


I am hoping it is not quite as dire as Reiner says, but it might be wise to assume instead of 15 minutes, exposure happens at 5. Does anyone know of any studies that have been done yet on Omicron? How concerned are you?

[Spellbound454]

Someone said on TV that you just need a whiff of an infected persons breath.

inews.co.uk/news/omicron-covid-variant-spread-whiff-infected-breath-scientist-warning-1376848

[Opti]

Jan 1, 2022 9:26:48 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Someone said on TV that you just need a whiff of an infected persons breath.

inews.co.uk/news/omicron-covid-variant-spread-whiff-infected-breath-scientist-warning-1376848

From your link-


It has ended up being so infectious that it almost needs just a whiff of infected breath and you could get infected.”

I think this is a way to scare/warn the public. I think they do not really know yet, just that it is far more infectious than other strains. I need to get myself some N95 masks and change my habits to no more than 5 minutes in one place while out in public.

[Spellbound454]

"Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag)"

I have seen this guy before, he has credibility.

We do need to be very careful with this new variant.

[Tiny]

The public should be a little worried about it... it's really infectious and it's spreading to people who are "healthy" and vaccinated (I'm guessing a majority of them are asymptomatic).


I'm pretty sure the "it only takes about 15 to 20 minutes" of breathing air that has been in another person to get the original Covid19 - means that it takes even less inhaled "used air" to get enough of the Omicron virus to get infected.

When Covid19 first appeared it was very contagious and spread very quickly by people who didn't feel sick. Omicron is the same but is very contagious.

(Remember SARS and MERS?  Both spread rapidly but neither was as contagious as Covid19 even though they both had plenty of time and large pools of people (traveling) to help spread them around.   Both viruses were "contained"  with smaller shut downs and what amounted to "social distancing" within smaller populations of people. ) .

I think the general hope is that even though it will probably infect just about everyone before it's done - it won't have the same death rate as the original and Delta.


I think it will be interesting to see how Omicron plays with the other traditional winter illnesses like the flu and other colds/respiratory viruses - as in will it make it more difficult for people to overcome the flu? Will being infected with a series of viruses make someone more prone to more severe illness as they cycle thru the various viruses?

[Tennesseer]

Bottom line is why get sick in the first place when you can protect yourself with the vaccine or at least wear face masks out in public.

[teen persuasion]

Jan 1, 2022 12:04:42 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Bottom line is why get sick in the first place when you can protect yourself with the vaccine or at least wear face masks out in public.

Breakthrough cases happen.  DS2 was double vaxxed + boosted, wears a mask, but other idiots at work were flouting the employer + state mask mandates, and no one was enforcing the rules.  So Sunday before Xmas, DS2 wasn't feeling well.  Yep, he's spent Xmas in quarantine, trying not to share it with his roommates.

[Opti]

Jan 1, 2022 12:04:42 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Bottom line is why get sick in the first place when you can protect yourself with the vaccine or at least wear face masks out in public.

I recommend both unless you are outside. I am going back to surgical masks and tossing them when I leave the store if it is crowded.
We got one mask generally per week at work, so I am conditioned to reuse them. But if there be Omicron on them, I don't even want it lurking in my car.

On Worldometer, I am seeing numbers US wide in excess of anything prior to this in the pandemic. People were out in Times Square with masks, but given how quickly it transmits, a bunch of them may have infections some time this month.

[Opti]

Jan 1, 2022 10:55:43 GMT -5 Tiny said:

The public should be a little worried about it... it's really infectious and it's spreading to people who are "healthy" and vaccinated (I'm guessing a majority of them are asymptomatic).


I'm pretty sure the "it only takes about 15 to 20 minutes" of breathing air that has been in another person to get the original Covid19 - means that it takes even less inhaled "used air" to get enough of the Omicron virus to get infected.

When Covid19 first appeared it was very contagious and spread very quickly by people who didn't feel sick. Omicron is the same but is very contagious.

(Remember SARS and MERS?  Both spread rapidly but neither was as contagious as Covid19 even though they both had plenty of time and large pools of people (traveling) to help spread them around.   Both viruses were "contained"  with smaller shut downs and what amounted to "social distancing" within smaller populations of people. ) .

I think the general hope is that even though it will probably infect just about everyone before it's done - it won't have the same death rate as the original and Delta.


I think it will be interesting to see how Omicron plays with the other traditional winter illnesses like the flu and other colds/respiratory viruses - as in will it make it more difficult for people to overcome the flu? Will being infected with a series of viruses make someone more prone to more severe illness as they cycle thru the various viruses?

I finally printed out the table I posted in one or more Covid related threads. I think I am going to choose that Omicron can infect you in a third of the time that Alpha could. That means that one wears a surgical mask, you can be exposed enough at 10 minutes to someone wearing no mask who has Omicron. Your max safe exposure time would be with someone in a fit tested N95 mask, which I am going to call 1 hour 40 minutes versus the 5 hrs. with Alpha.

On the old chart, if you had to work side by side with someone with Covid, the only way you did not catch it in 8 hours, was if one of you was wearing a fit tested N95 mask. 

[Opti]

www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/29/infographic-how-omicron-compares-to-other-covid-variants

[Opti]

Meanwhile, former US Surgeon General Jerome Adams criticized the CDC for its decision to cut isolation periods from 10 days to five.



“I love the CDC. Grew up wanting to work there and have been one of their most ardent defenders. I never dreamed the day would come when I would advise people NOT to follow their guidance,” he said in a tweet.



“They wouldn’t even follow it for their own family,” he added.


nypost.com/2021/12/29/cdc-drastically-drops-estimate-of-omicron-cases-in-us/


Possible politics or economy move? Mistake now that they dialed down Omicron percentages? (Stated about 41% Delta in US, might not be in this article.)

[Tiny]

i politics or economy move?

Probably both. I don't think the death rate has spiked because of Omicron infections.
Or maybe we haven't seen it yet?


I'm guessing any governmental decisions about trying to slow the progress of Omicron is being based on how sick people get. And I'm guessing people aren't dying in droves from an Omicron infection...



Let's not forget that in America - it is a time honored requirement for workers to go to work and work with cold or flu symptoms (sometimes because they have no other option but to go to work). That's why OTC "cold and flu" remedies or medications that relieve enough misery so you can keep working are acceptable and prevalent here.

Got a cough or a runny/stuffed up nose or a fever? take some cough suppressant or a decongestant or some tylenol - no need to miss out on all the things you need to do...

And if Omicron is presenting as a mild to severe cold - well, Americans got plenty of OTC medications and vitamins and assorted preparations (homeopathy) to solve that problem - no need to worry about it.

[billisonboard]

Jan 1, 2022 14:15:24 GMT -5 Tiny said:

i politics or economy move?

Probably both. I don't think the death rate has spiked because of Omicron infections.
Or maybe we haven't seen it yet?


I'm guessing any governmental decisions about trying to slow the progress of Omicron is being based on how sick people get. And I'm guessing people aren't dying in droves from an Omicron infection...



Let's not forget that in America - it is a time honored requirement for workers to go to work and work with cold or flu symptoms (sometimes because they have no other option but to go to work). That's why OTC "cold and flu" remedies or medications that relieve enough misery so you can keep working are acceptable and prevalent here.

Got a cough or a runny/stuffed up nose or a fever? take some cough suppressant or a decongestant or some tylenol - no need to miss out on all the things you need to do...

And if Omicron is presenting as a mild to severe cold - well, Americans got plenty of OTC medications and vitamins and assorted preparations (homeopathy) to solve that problem - no need to worry about it.

We (taxpayers) have also spent a huge amount of money to minimize the impact of being infected.

[teen persuasion]

Just watched ABC World News - they were discussing whether kids can safely go back to in person classes on Monday. Some districts have home tests, and are distributing them now. A district in Yonkers had 25% coming back positive! And yet, most really don't want to go remote right now.

I can't believe that we've relaxed enough that anyone would consider sending kids back with a 25% and growing positivity rate, especially since a large chunk of those kids STILL are not eligible for vaccination, or aren't fully vaxxed, or parents refuse to vax them.

[tbop77]

SAN ANTONIO – Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Friday formally requested more federal support in Bexar County and other major metropolitan areas as COVID-19 cases soar throughout the state.

Though Abbott has hammered the Biden administration on its coronavirus policies, he has banned local cities and counties from implementing their own mitigation strategies, including vaccine and mask mandates that could help curb infections.


www.ksat.com/news/local/2021/12/31/texas-governor-asks-federal-government-for-covid-19-resources-in-bexar-county-as-infections-soar/

I say pull yourself up by your bootstraps, Texas.  The US taxpayers have spent enough and shouldn't have to pay for your poor choices.  

[pulmonarymd]

He wants more monoclonal antibodies, as does DeSantis. Only problem is the only one effective against omicron is in short supply. We would like to have more as well.

Maybe if he let local governments and private companies do what they want things would be better?

[happyhoix]

My state has just reached 40% positivity. Whoooo hoo!

Oh, wait….

[happyhoix]

In my very red area, Covid is hardly mentioned at all. Not in our little county paper. When DH and I go to the stores, we’re usually the only masked people there. He’s a little lax about always wearing his mask, and he preferred the fiber ones over the N95 ones I got him, but this morning, watching the news showing our state is an epicenter, he went and put the N95s in his car, and has promised me he’ll wear them all the time, everywhere, until this thing is over.

So - at least I have a tiny silver lining in this shit storm.

Going to be interested, tomorrow, to see if we even have enough employees show up to run the factory. We don’t allow anyone to come to work who has been in close contact with a Covid infected person, and I’m willing to bet most of our employees did, over the holidays.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 2, 2022 9:02:41 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

He wants more monoclonal antibodies, as does DeSantis. Only problem is the only one effective against omicron is in short supply. We would like to have more as well.

Maybe if he let local governments and private companies do what they want things would be better?

make you a deal:

you get your state vaccination rate up to 80%, and we will ship you MCA.

how does that sound?

[pulmonarymd]

Jan 2, 2022 15:41:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 2, 2022 9:02:41 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

He wants more monoclonal antibodies, as does DeSantis. Only problem is the only one effective against omicron is in short supply. We would like to have more as well.

Maybe if he let local governments and private companies do what they want things would be better?

make you a deal:

you get your state vaccination rate up to 80%, and we will ship you MCA.

how does that sound?

Rescind the executive order preventing mask and vaccine mandates. Push vaccinations. Then we will give you your “fair” share, since the virus spiking everywhere. You aren’t any more special than anyone else. Since you only like the federal government when you need something, fix it yourself

[happyhoix]

Jan 2, 2022 15:41:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 2, 2022 9:02:41 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

He wants more monoclonal antibodies, as does DeSantis. Only problem is the only one effective against omicron is in short supply. We would like to have more as well.

Maybe if he let local governments and private companies do what they want things would be better?

make you a deal:

you get your state vaccination rate up to 80%, and we will ship you MCA.

how does that sound?

Saw a chart showing the New York infection/hospitalization/mortality rate right now, and about 90 percent of the hospitalized patients were unvaccinated. The hospitalization rate for the unvaccinated was spiking up dramatically while the vaccinated rate was actually dropping.

Of course if I try to tell my bright red neighbors that they will claim (take your pick): fake news, that’s in NYC and not here, here is very different, or ‘Merica!.

I don’t even bother anymore.

[djAdvocate]

but it is NOT different there.
in fact, it is probably, by degrees, worse.

[haapai]

I am very disappointed by the things that I am hearing public figures, including public health figures, say about the omicron variant.  Either they have insight into something that I can't see or understand, or they are betting everything on omicron being relatively less debilitating and deadly. 

Some folks that I once had a lot of respect for are being quoted as saying things that sound wildly misleading and I'm not at all confident that this is the result of reporters not really understanding what is being said and taking words out of context.  This talk of hospitalizations not being up as much as expected is absolute horseflop.  Nobody is taking the time lag into account properly. 

[djAdvocate]

it is hard to imagine that our deaths/day are going any lower, given that we are about 10x our average case number/day for the last year. at 1200 deaths per day for the foreseeable future, it is hard to imagine that our OFFICIAL COUNT will be below 1M by the end of Winter.

side note: I thought I heard that our cases surpassed 1M today on some news outlet. is that right? if so, that is a whole other level of crazy. the above was based on 500k/day.

[haapai]

NPR reported that a million new cases were diagnosed over the holiday weekend.  link here  That's probably where you heard the one million number. 

Realistically, we don't know what our actual new case count is and we probably won't know for another week or so in many locations.  I was looking at the Michigan counts a couple of days ago and it appeared pretty clear that the counties around Metro Detroit had reported lots of new cases but reported new cases were down almost everywhere else -- probably because of swabs not being taken or run through machines or reported by health departments, not because the incidence of disease had slowed. 

I don't know if we have the technical capacities to test and report a million new cases a day.  Even though testing capacity has increased dramatically during the course of the pandemic, it still has limits and I have no idea what those limits are.  .

[tbop77]

And all the while dividing the country over COVID while they are vaccinated and safe.  


Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade thinks it’s time to “live with” COVID and told “Fox & Friends” viewers as much Tuesday — even though he was broadcasting apart from his colleagues due to, well, COVID.


www.thewrap.com/fox-news-brian-kilmeade-remote-work-covid/


So DeSantis’s position that his vaccination status is a completely private issue is new. I asked Pushaw to explain the change. She refused to answer the question, instead insisting again upon his right to privacy, declining to explain why DeSantis was insistent on maintaining his privacy now but not last year:


www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ron-desantis-s-vaccination-status-is-now-a-state-secret/ar-AASqEzu?ocid=msedgntp

[haapai]

I learned something today that may be useful to those of you who are using the NYT's data to watch for the Omicron wave's crest.  I'm slightly embarrassed that I hadn't figured it out earlier, and many of you may have already figured it out on your own. 

If you want to see more granular data on new cases, hospitalizations, testing, and deaths in your state, you can.  The trick is to scroll down past the initial screen, past the new hospital admissions by age line graph, past the map of state hot spots, past the table of county-level data, and stop when you see  "How trends have changed in <your state> " .  Right underneath that bit of bolded text, there is a box that allows you to choose whether you want to see all-time data or just the last 90 days.  If you click on the "last 90 days" tab, you'll be able to see daily data again. 

Doing this allows you to see plateaus and decreases a few days faster than you'd be able to if you are only watching the 7-day trendline.  It's particularly helpful if you have declining eyesight or live in a state that reports data only a few days a week.