happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 12, 2022 16:08:33 GMT -5
Walker isn’t polling well, not since news of his three out of wedlock kids he forgot to mention.
He’ll get shredded in the debates with Warnock, a very skilled speaker (used to be a preacher).
Other MAGA freak shows not doing well - J D Vance, who was all against Trump until he was all for him, and Dr Oz, who is floundering against Fetterman, a guy I like and would like to have a beer with.
If Warnock wins again in GA, that will be the second time Trump caused the GA GOP to lose a senate seat.
MAGA!!!!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 12, 2022 16:16:09 GMT -5
happy:
i think Oz is a distinctly bad choice against Fetterman. he is a farner, to begin with. that doesn't rest well with rural PA. Fetterman looks like a longshoreman.
i really think, just at the most superficial level, which is how campaigns seem to go these days, Oz is not in a good position.
i heard there was some fairly negative polling on Trump out today. but it is hearsay at this point. i have nothing more than that.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 12, 2022 20:00:07 GMT -5
happy: i think Oz is a distinctly bad choice against Fetterman. he is a farner, to begin with. that doesn't rest well with rural PA. Fetterman looks like a longshoreman. i really think, just at the most superficial level, which is how campaigns seem to go these days, Oz is not in a good position. i heard there was some fairly negative polling on Trump out today. but it is hearsay at this point. i have nothing more than that. Trump picked Vance because he wrote a popular book, Walker because he was a famous football player and Oz because he’s a famous daytime TV host. Trump thinks people are so stupid they’ll vote for a celebrity with zero qualifications to be in office- after all, it worked for him. Hopefully the voting public is more discerning about candidates these days. Fool me once.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 12, 2022 20:04:32 GMT -5
Reagan and Schwarzenegger are other notable examples.
not so much when Reagan ran for president, but when he ran for governor.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jul 12, 2022 21:53:31 GMT -5
Ya'al are missing something else too...all the state & local GOPers are putting as many DT heavies as they can in charge of counting (not counting) votes. There should be some good court cases if Democrats don't win & any votes get thrown out. Going to be some close eyes on what goes on at a lot of polling places. Noticed Georgia still has a lot of Trump signs and posters up. All they have to do is change the year on them and they are good to go! I’m quite positive a lot of Repo-cons like you support your fascist cult king. You even seem a bit gleeful about it. Yet Georgia is the battlefield he failed so severely. And criminal charges are a definite possibility. So go ahead and support a criminal, anti-American fascist and feel real good about yourself.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 13, 2022 7:32:01 GMT -5
Noticed Georgia still has a lot of Trump signs and posters up. All they have to do is change the year on them and they are good to go! I’m quite positive a lot of Repo-cons like you support your fascist cult king. You even seem a bit gleeful about it. Yet Georgia is the battlefield he failed so severely. And criminal charges are a definite possibility. So go ahead and support a criminal, anti-American fascist and feel real good about yourself. Rural GA areas are pro Trump but suburbs and metro areas are not. I’m interested to see how native Georgians react to the upcoming trial about election tampering. There is a strong resistance embedded in Georgians to disliking outsiders coming to town and telling them what to do. Especially Yankees. I suspect that’s why the Secretary of State Raffensburger won re-election over Trumps hand picked minion so easily. That tape of Trump trying to strong arm Raffensburger did it.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Jul 16, 2022 6:29:42 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 16, 2022 11:40:31 GMT -5
i saw a short bit on Fetterman (sic) TROLLING Dr. Oz last night. it was fucking hilarious.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 16, 2022 11:52:44 GMT -5
He says he’s going to run - but he has to get through the primary. Yes he’s polling higher than DeSantis is right now, but I’m very hopeful the two of them get into a tremendous drag out dirty fight that smears both of them. Donald can’t dance in and brag about his wonderful business smarts and how what we really need is an amazing businessman to run the country - he’s got a four year record of screwing up, and J6 will hang like an albatross around his neck. There will be intense pressure on him, and any minions with any sense have abandoned him, so he’ll be getting advice from the freak show. With any luck he’ll blow up in a spectacular and public way - a profanity laced, red faced melt down where he kicks over an old lady’s wheel chair or something - that or his hamburder/burnt meat lifestyle will finally catch up with him. Fingers crossed.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Jul 17, 2022 7:06:00 GMT -5
Luntz told The Guardian that GOP leaders have told the former president "in no uncertain terms that anything that takes attention away from inflation and Biden's failures could hand the election to the Democrats. But they know there is nothing they can do to influence him, and that he doesn't really care." Meanwhile, some Republicans hope that the party can distance itself from Trump moving forward. Luntz suggested the former president's willingness to criticize and attack members of his own party could be a liability for his own future goals. "No one attacks Republicans more viciously than Donald Trump, not even top Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer," he said. "Eventually that will come back to bite him." Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Center on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek earlier this month that behind the scenes, many Republicans are sure to be "irked" if Trump announces an early bid for the White House. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-viciously-attacking-republicans-will-come-back-to-bite-him-luntz/ar-AAZDZI5?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d6f90a4cf4a146838f2fe07b801bacb4#1--Too bad/so sad. Trump will ruin it for you as he does everything he touches. Probably trying to figure out a name to call DeSantis #2--LOL, think you can distance yourself from the cult leader? #3--He is the gift that keeps on giving for the DEMS, isn't he? #4--see #1 Had your chance to get rid of him during his impeachment trial for inciting a riot to overturn the election. And you all knew, at least after the riot going by the speeches you gave. I hope the stink of Trump stays with you for many many years.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 17, 2022 14:40:48 GMT -5
it would have been SO EASY for them to impeach him and bar him from office. they didn't even need to have the WHOLE PARTY go after him. they could have had a few members peel off and convict him, and then they could have plausibly denied that they supported impeachment as a party if they wanted to.
they fucked up their ONE AND ONLY CHANCE. now, they are chained to that fucking curse until he dies, and maybe after, as well.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Jul 18, 2022 5:35:09 GMT -5
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 18, 2022 8:37:18 GMT -5
Trump has told his inner minions he has to win in 2024 to stop all the investigations and prosecutions.
So he wants to announce within a couple months, and the GOP is Freaking out about that, because it could hurt the party.
Which once again proves Trump only cares about Trump, not his Party.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 18, 2022 11:50:35 GMT -5
i think it is interesting that he believes the investigations will still be going in 2024.
that must mean that he knows about some current or future crimes that we don't know.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Jul 23, 2022 6:59:20 GMT -5
"So let me say, when you get out and vote for Karrin Taylor Robson and this Republican team, you can say yes to a future of freedom for Arizona. You can say yes to our most cherished values: life and liberty. You can say yes to strong borders, safe streets, and great schools, growing economy," he continued. "And Arizona, make no mistake about it: When you get out and vote for Karrin Taylor Robson, you can send a deafening message that will be heard all across America that the Republican Party is the party of the future."
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pence-fires-shot-at-trump-s-election-denials-in-arizona-maga-proxy-war/ar-AAZSFwZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=58bbdc3a722b4d0893a7d2091945f515I can see Republicans getting together to see who is going to defy Trump and his MAGA base on the campaign trail. "hey Pence, you go first, you don't have political future anyway" Too bad he sold his soul but he is lucky to be alive.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 23, 2022 13:59:43 GMT -5
i agree with that last part. from the tape they showed on the 9th J6 hearing, even his protective detail was not at all certain they would survive the short(?) journey to Pence's bunker.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2022 14:08:04 GMT -5
one of our other posters pointed out that the Generic Ballot is closing due to the inquiry. i didn't believe it, so i looked into it, and it is CORRECT. Democrats are now at their closest point this year, less than 1% below the GOP. Further, the GOP has fallen 1.5% since Mid-May, and Democrats are up 1.5% since mid-Jan: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/i have pointed out before that these numbers are VERY difficult to move. to illustrate, the Democrats AND the GOP have been between 39% and 46% for the last YEAR. the GOP still holds an advantage for the midterms in the House (due to partisan gerrymandering), but the margin is closing. this is especially bad news for the GOP's prospects in the Senate, however.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 27, 2022 20:17:42 GMT -5
Democrats odds of keeping the Senate are up to 59%: their best odds of this election cycle. www.racetothewh.com/senate/2022there are only two tossups left at this point: NV and OH. Democrats are leading by 4% or more in each of the following states: NH, GA, PA, and AZ. so, the GOP has to win both of the tossup states (they are currently losing ground in both), and one of the four states listed above in bold. the current odds favourite is that the GOP will lose one seat, and Dems will prevail with 51.
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Jul 29, 2022 15:51:37 GMT -5
I think it is also worth noting and completely hilarious that Dems beat McConnell at his own game this week and helped their chances of retaining the Senate. McConnell had threatened to block the Semiconductor chips bill if Dems tried to put forth any budget/inflation bill that included things on Biden's agenda. So Schumer and Manchin met in secret and were able to agree on a bill that does include climate, energy and tax provisions that were on the agenda but waited to announce it until the chips bill passed! LMAO!
There is no guaranty they will be able to pass it but if they are able to use reconciliation to do so it will finally be a win for the administration for both bills. Oh and boo hoo Repugnants were in shock and felt betrayed! Aha ha ha ha
And the icing on the Dem cake for this week is Repugnants didn't do themselves any favors by blocking the bill for Veterans health. They once again showed their disdain for our veterans while claiming to be the party that has the most respect and does the most for the military and law enforcement.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 29, 2022 18:24:00 GMT -5
the above website just adjusted the Democratic chances of retaining the Senate. it is now at 62%.the GOP continues to lose ground in almost every battleground state. the projected Democratic vote in Nevada is now +2.4%, for example. i think the most interesting race is currently the Ohio race, where congressman Ryan is in a battle with pundit JD Vance. Vance is following the Trump playbook, here. he is being wildly outspent, but is still leading the race, and is expected to win- but by less than 1%. this would be a HUGE win for Democrats, because it gives them a +1 (the seat is being vacated by Rob Portman), and also signals that the tide is turning in Ohio, which has gone from purple to red in the last decade. www.racetothewh.com/ohio
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Post by tbop77 on Jul 29, 2022 21:32:09 GMT -5
I think it is also worth noting and completely hilarious that Dems beat McConnell at his own game this week and helped their chances of retaining the Senate. McConnell had threatened to block the Semiconductor chips bill if Dems tried to put forth any budget/inflation bill that included things on Biden's agenda. So Schumer and Manchin met in secret and were able to agree on a bill that does include climate, energy and tax provisions that were on the agenda but waited to announce it until the chips bill passed! LMAO!
There is no guaranty they will be able to pass it but if they are able to use reconciliation to do so it will finally be a win for the administration for both bills. Oh and boo hoo Repugnants were in shock and felt betrayed! Aha ha ha ha
And the icing on the Dem cake for this week is Repugnants didn't do themselves any favors by blocking the bill for Veterans health. They once again showed their disdain for our veterans while claiming to be the party that has the most respect and does the most for the military and law enforcement. After the vote, a group of Republican Senators were seen shaking hands on the chamber floor, with Texas' Ted Cruz and Montana's Steve Daines also giving each other a fist bump. A clip of the pair bumping fists was shared on Twitter by the Senate Democrats, along with the caption: "Senate Republicans BLOCKED the PACT Act, critical health care for veterans with illness caused by toxic burn pits. "Even though many Republicans supported it just weeks ago. And they celebrated."
The clip has been viewed more than one million times since it was posted on Twitter. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/video-shows-republicans-fist-bumping-after-blocking-veteran-healthcare-bill/ar-AA1064RM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1a205332c8494850854c7c55851f9be5That is a political ad just waiting to happen!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 3, 2022 1:05:11 GMT -5
there are a couple of things that are likely to change in the first couple of weeks. the first is that racetowin is likely to take the Senate out of tossup and call it "Tilt Democrat". the second is that the Generic Ballot is likely to go blue for the first time since November 15th, on the strength of polling which has the Democrats at their highest level since October. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/these factors are absolutely intertwined. NOTE: this does not impact the House....YET. the GOP is still favored to win there, and if anything the margin is GROWING.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 3, 2022 13:48:10 GMT -5
that was quick. the GOP and Democrats are even on the generic ballot this morning. both are at 44.2% i just found this article, written LESS THAN A YEAR AGO, with a Republican business writer expressing glee that the GOP was up 10% in the generic ballot. and although he was thinking CORRECTLY that it would take a lot to erase that gain, what he FAILED to account for was the quality and bias of the survey. i wonder what he is thinking now: www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/11/23/the-generic-ballot-what-to-know-why-its-so-importanthe gets a lot wrong in this article. it is kinda embarrassing, really. for those of you wondering "why the generic ballot"?, it is actually a really good indicator. it has not had more than a 4% error off actual in the last 29 years: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-key-to-forecasting-midterms-the-generic-ballot/furthermore, it GENERALLY favors Democrats (underscoring bias). eight out of 12 times in the last 30 years, it has underestimated Democratic support. the average bias is about 2%. i would not be OPTIMISTIC if i were a Democrat right now, because midterms RARELY favor the party in charge. but i would not be pessimistic either. this is NOT going to be a landslide, despite what the crowing GOP members of this board seem to believe. it is going to be close. i would entertain serious doubts about the Democrats keeping the House (though it is not impossible), but i think the chances of them losing the Senate are rapidly diminishing.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 3, 2022 13:51:07 GMT -5
oh, i forgot to mention why i like the Generic ballot.
it is not JUST because it tends to be quite accurate. it is because it MOVES REALLY SLOWLY. in other words, even though the election is not for another 3 months, it would be really weird for this survey to move more than a few percent. which means, in practical terms, that the generic ballot will PROBABLY favor Democrats this term, given the intrinsic bias in the survey. which is, as i said before, good news if you are a Democrat.
if you are wondering why i am not predicting that this will mean the Democrats will win the House because of this, it is because, in a word:
Gerrymandering
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 6, 2022 12:40:44 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 8, 2022 13:52:16 GMT -5
yeah, i mentioned earlier that this guy is a uniquely bad pick to represent the state. foreigner, carpetbagger, etc. he is not like them. Fedderman IS. they needed a white, telegenic candidate. sorry to go so superficial, but that is often what politics boils down to.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 8, 2022 17:59:30 GMT -5
yeah, i mentioned earlier that this guy is a uniquely bad pick to represent the state. foreigner, carpetbagger, etc. he is not like them. Fedderman IS. they needed a white, telegenic candidate. sorry to go so superficial, but that is often what politics boils down to. Trump is a sucker for ‘famous’ people from TV. I guess because that’s how he became well known. He also thinks women are stupid and will vote for a somewhat handsome guy based solely on having seen him on TV.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 8, 2022 19:13:34 GMT -5
Dems are on a roll - multiple bills have made it through the Senate, plus the threat of a recession may be receding a bit, gas prices are dropping, our military was able to kill Bin Laden’s second in command without any Americans getting killed in the process, and Kansas has delivered a decisive ‘fuck right off’ pro-choice vote.
Plus some of Trump’s hand picked Senate candidates are tanking.
I never make voting predictions (I’m always completely wrong) but I’m wondering if the Red Wave is actually going to happen?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 8, 2022 22:40:51 GMT -5
i never expected there to be a Red Wave. that is more VB's can of huff.
my opinion on the Senate is well documented on the other thread. i was predicting a 50-50 split for a very long time, with the final outcome too close to call. i am currently predicting a 51-49 Democratic majority.
my opinion on the House side was that the GOP would win by about the same margin that the Democrats have now. but i think that is maybe the most optimistic outlook for them at this point.
so, yeah. it is more like a blue ebb than a red wave.
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Post by thyme4change on Aug 9, 2022 7:58:03 GMT -5
i never expected there to be a Red Wave. that is more VB's can of huff. my opinion on the Senate is well documented on the other thread. i was predicting a 50-50 split for a very long time, with the final outcome too close to call. i am currently predicting a 51-49 Democratic majority. . Is that counting Krysten Sinema as a Dem? If so, we are still 50/50. 🤪🤪🤪🤪
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