Official 2022 Midterm Thread

[billisonboard]

I was thinking about this quote from the above story.

"I have huge concerns with these voting machines," one commissioner, Vickie Marquardt, said during the meeting. "I really do. I just don't think in my heart that they can't be manipulated."

"Okay, but how about if/when you think about it in your head instead. You just might come to a different conclusion using your brain."

[billisonboard]

Jun 15, 2022 13:45:31 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

bills- what do you mean by "here we go"?

The start of actual real world impact on election tabulation.

[tallguy]

I'm going to guess that what has started is County Commissioners (and ultimately officials at the state level) in red states blocking or refusing to certify election results because of "concerns" of voting irregularities with the machines.  Any component of Trump's Big Lie will be used by those who wish to destroy democracy to hold onto power.  It has begun, and the race is on.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 15, 2022 13:57:33 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jun 15, 2022 13:45:31 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

bills- what do you mean by "here we go"?

The start of actual real world impact on election tabulation.

election tabulation?  sorry, still lost.

[billisonboard]

Jun 15, 2022 15:35:44 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 15, 2022 13:57:33 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

The start of actual real world impact on election tabulation.

election tabulation?  sorry, still lost.

After people vote in an election, the votes are counted (tabulated), results are looked at for any potential errors in the counting process, recalculated if it is thought to be necessary, and then the results are certified by someone(s) legally tasked to make the call of who the people chose. Normally this is done with little fanfare or controversy. Donald Trump has created an atmosphere in which there will be fanfare controversy. We knew it was coming. To the best of my knowledge, this situation in New Mexico is the first time that officials involved in the legal process have used the conspiracy theories offered by Trump to not certify results. Thus "here we go" with dealing with actual official disrupt of the election process.

[djAdvocate]

thanks.  sorry for the confusion.

[Tennesseer]

Gov. Ron DeSantis responds to Elon Musk's likely vote for him for president: 'I welcome support from African Americans

*Elon Musk said he'd likely back Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis for president in 2024.
*DeSantis was asked to respond, and he said he'd "welcome support from African Americans."
*The Florida governor is up for reelection in 2022 and hasn't said yet if he's running for president.
*Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis welcomes the political support of Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.

"I'm focused on 2022," DeSantis, a Republican, said at a press conference in Madeira Beach, Florida. "But with Elon Musk what I would say is: I welcome support from African Americans. What can I say?"

Gov. Ron DeSantis responds to Elon Musk's likely vote for him for president: 'I welcome support from African Americans

[deminmaine]

Maybe DeSantis could tap Musk for his VP running mate.  A "progressive" move, to have a colored running mate.  Well, colorful anyway.

The more I learn about elon the more wary of him (and most of his fellow billionaires) I become.

[Opti]

Jun 15, 2022 17:21:43 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Maybe DeSantis could tap Musk for his VP running mate.  A "progressive" move, to have a colored running mate.  Well, colorful anyway.

The more I learn about elon the more wary of him (and most of his fellow billionaires) I become.

Musk is originally South African I believe, but it is a weird statement.

[deminmaine]

Yes, clueless, actually!

[billisonboard]

Jun 15, 2022 17:21:43 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Maybe DeSantis could tap Musk for his VP running mate.  A "progressive" move, to have a colored running mate.  Well, colorful anyway.

The more I learn about elon the more wary of him (and most of his fellow billionaires) I become.

FWIW, Musk isn't eligible to be Vice President; not native born.

[deminmaine]

Jun 15, 2022 17:52:28 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jun 15, 2022 17:21:43 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Maybe DeSantis could tap Musk for his VP running mate.  A "progressive" move, to have a colored running mate.  Well, colorful anyway.

The more I learn about elon the more wary of him (and most of his fellow billionaires) I become.

FWIW, Musk isn't eligible to be Vice President; not native born.

Yes, exactly!

[billisonboard]

Jun 15, 2022 13:54:39 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I was thinking about this quote from the above story.

"I have huge concerns with these voting machines," one commissioner, Vickie Marquardt, said during the meeting. "I really do. I just don't think in my heart that they can't be manipulated."

"Okay, but how about if/when you think about it in your head instead. You just might come to a different conclusion using your brain."

New body part to do the thinking:

... his "gut feeling and intuition" told him to oppose the move. link

 

[Tennesseer]

Jun 17, 2022 18:30:31 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jun 15, 2022 13:54:39 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I was thinking about this quote from the above story.

"I have huge concerns with these voting machines," one commissioner, Vickie Marquardt, said during the meeting. "I really do. I just don't think in my heart that they can't be manipulated."

"Okay, but how about if/when you think about it in your head instead. You just might come to a different conclusion using your brain."

New body part to do the thinking:

... his "gut feeling and intuition" told him to oppose the move. link

 

Think on one's feet?

[billisonboard]

Here in Washington State we have all mail in voting so no "poll watchers" but I have volunteered to be a ballot count observer for our primary election. The count will start mid July.

[Value Buy]

Jun 8, 2022 16:02:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 3, 2022 21:50:08 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I see the democrats think they managed to salvage enough safe districts across the country in the redistricting process for the House races by squeezing out some Republican Congresssional districts into Democrat controlled areas.
I doubt if it will stem the Republican wave this fall but the Republican majority might be five seats or so closer than originally thought.

i wish that were true.

unfortunately, Democrats seem to be focused on making elections more fair rather than skewing them to their advantage.  and the result is that they lose the advantage of redistricting the states in their favor in states they control.

in other words, they are playing democracy against neofacists.  they are going to lose that battle, because the neofascists don't give a fuck about democracy.  at all.

Well, some courts did throw out the Congressional drawn maps in Democratic controlled states that were drawn with extreme bias this year as they did with Repblican controlled states. Might have balanced it out in the end.

[billisonboard]

Jun 21, 2022 8:22:49 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 8, 2022 16:02:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i wish that were true.

unfortunately, Democrats seem to be focused on making elections more fair rather than skewing them to their advantage.  and the result is that they lose the advantage of redistricting the states in their favor in states they control.

in other words, they are playing democracy against neofacists.  they are going to lose that battle, because the neofascists don't give a fuck about democracy.  at all.

Well, some courts did throw out the Congressional drawn maps in Democratic controlled states that were drawn with extreme bias this year as they did with Repblican controlled states. Might have balanced it out in the end.

Actual data: What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State if one is interested

[teen persuasion]

Jun 21, 2022 8:22:49 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 8, 2022 16:02:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i wish that were true.

unfortunately, Democrats seem to be focused on making elections more fair rather than skewing them to their advantage.  and the result is that they lose the advantage of redistricting the states in their favor in states they control.

in other words, they are playing democracy against neofacists.  they are going to lose that battle, because the neofascists don't give a fuck about democracy.  at all.

Well, some courts did throw out the Congressional drawn maps in Democratic controlled states that were drawn with extreme bias this year as they did with Repblican controlled states. Might have balanced it out in the end.

Yes, NY's map got thrown out.  A neutral third party was appointed to draw a map, and his map was more logical from a local/regional view - no extreme, tortured meandering districts concocted just to group all Republicans in one district and all Democrats in another district.

Those bright red/blue districts that lean 90% to one side are NOT helpful - they mean there's no competitive races, and lead to competitions among the most extreme candidates on either side.  A true competition in a 50/50 district means those candidates need to moderate their tone and appeal to voters of all stripes.

I'm thrilled that the new map puts me in a district that's partially in the metro area/city dominating my region and relatively nearby, vs the big meandering rural -only district stretching clear to the other side of the state, spanning parts of 4 distinct regions. Formerly, the city, and another where several of my kids are, were tiny blue dots in a sea of 2 giant red districts extending well outside our region. But if you viewed the region as most non-politicians do, it's a gradient - more blue in the city, more purple in some of the suburbs around the city (where the bulk of the population is), growing more red as you get out to the thinly populated rural areas.

Most people here don't mentally isolate the city from the suburbs, it's just all considered the metro area. But the political rules about districts look at govt boundaries - can't break up a "community" when trying to make a district with X people in it. So the city is treated as one indivisible unit, and it takes a lot of small population rural towns to match that population elsewhere. OR, you could subdivide the city along common neighborhood boundaries or sections (North B, South B, East side, West side) and concatenate those to adjacent, similar communities in the same region, creating normal sized districts, instead of islands and seas!

[happyhoix]

Jun 21, 2022 9:02:21 GMT -5 teen persuasion said:

Jun 21, 2022 8:22:49 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Well, some courts did throw out the Congressional drawn maps in Democratic controlled states that were drawn with extreme bias this year as they did with Repblican controlled states. Might have balanced it out in the end.

Yes, NY's map got thrown out.  A neutral third party was appointed to draw a map, and his map was more logical from a local/regional view - no extreme, tortured meandering districts concocted just to group all Republicans in one district and all Democrats in another district.

Those bright red/blue districts that lean 90% to one side are NOT helpful - they mean there's no competitive races, and lead to competitions among the most extreme candidates on either side.  A true competition in a 50/50 district means those candidates need to moderate their tone and appeal to voters of all stripes.

I'm thrilled that the new map puts me in a district that's partially in the metro area/city dominating my region and relatively nearby, vs the big meandering rural -only district stretching clear to the other side of the state, spanning parts of 4 distinct regions. Formerly, the city, and another where several of my kids are, were tiny blue dots in a sea of 2 giant red districts extending well outside our region. But if you viewed the region as most non-politicians do, it's a gradient - more blue in the city, more purple in some of the suburbs around the city (where the bulk of the population is), growing more red as you get out to the thinly populated rural areas.

Most people here don't mentally isolate the city from the suburbs, it's just all considered the metro area. But the political rules about districts look at govt boundaries - can't break up a "community" when trying to make a district with X people in it. So the city is treated as one indivisible unit, and it takes a lot of small population rural towns to match that population elsewhere. OR, you could subdivide the city along common neighborhood boundaries or sections (North B, South B, East side, West side) and concatenate those to adjacent, similar communities in the same region, creating normal sized districts, instead of islands and seas!

They allow absolute far right or far left wing nuts to get elected to Congressional office to the absolute mortification of the rest of the State.

[teen persuasion]

Jun 21, 2022 9:08:11 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

They allow absolute far right or far left wing nuts to get elected to Congressional office to the absolute mortification of the rest of the State.

Like Carl Paladino!

GOP candidate slammed "dumb hungry" black people

Circling back to our earlier coverage, Paladino has a history of racism, homophobia, and pushing utterly bonkers conspiracy theories. More recently, the New Yorker shared a Facebook message claiming recent mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde were false flag operations. (The Republican soon after said he had “no idea” how the post appeared on his page.)

Two weeks ago, the public learned of an interview Paladino did last year in which he said that Adolf Hitler was “the kind of leader we need today.” (The candidate soon after tried to clarify matters, issuing a statement that he doesn’t actually support Hitler.)

Now, we’re confronted with a related story in which Paladino argued publicly that rascally Democrats have somehow kept Black Americans “dumb and hungry,” which can’t be undone since, in the GOP candidate’s mind, Black people can’t be taught otherwise.

But let’s also not forget that the problem is not entirely retrospective. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik quickly threw her support behind the Paladino’s congressional candidacy, indifferent to his racist record.

When the party learned about his argument that Hitler was “the kind of leader we need,” the total number of GOP leaders who withdrew their endorsements for Paladino was zero.

[Value Buy]

Let's see now.
My prediction.
House of Representatives, Pubs gain 19 seats, enough for a majority, but impossible to get all of them to vote as a block on just about anything, unless most are Trump's peeps and he says vote for the legislation.
Senate, Pubs gain 2 or 3 seats, and will vote as a block 95% of th time.....
So, basically another two years of gridlock.........

[djAdvocate]

Jun 21, 2022 20:29:25 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Let's see now.
My prediction.
House of Representatives, Pubs gain 19 seats, enough for a majority, but impossible to get all of them to vote as a block on just about anything, unless most are Trump's peeps and he says vote for the legislation.
Senate, Pubs gain 2 or 3 seats, and will vote as a block 95% of th time.....
So, basically another two years of gridlock.........

i will stand by the prediction that i made earlier.  the GOP will take a narrow majority in the House, and there will be no change in the Senate, or possibly a +1 gain for Dems.

there are FAR too many irons in the fire right now to make good predictions, even 4 months in advance.  the economy, inflation, job growth, war, stock market, Trump.....all of these variables could break for either party.

[Value Buy]

Jun 21, 2022 21:47:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 21, 2022 20:29:25 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Let's see now.
My prediction.
House of Representatives, Pubs gain 19 seats, enough for a majority, but impossible to get all of them to vote as a block on just about anything, unless most are Trump's peeps and he says vote for the legislation.
Senate, Pubs gain 2 or 3 seats, and will vote as a block 95% of th time.....
So, basically another two years of gridlock.........

i will stand by the prediction that i made earlier.  the GOP will take a narrow majority in the House, and there will be no change in the Senate, or possibly a +1 gain for Dems.

there are FAR too many irons in the fire right now to make good predictions, even 4 months in advance.  the economy, inflation, job growth, war, stock market, Trump.....all of these variables could break for either party.

You forgot the biggie in your last sentence. Joe, # I did this!

[djAdvocate]

Jun 22, 2022 13:42:19 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 21, 2022 21:47:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i will stand by the prediction that i made earlier.  the GOP will take a narrow majority in the House, and there will be no change in the Senate, or possibly a +1 gain for Dems.

there are FAR too many irons in the fire right now to make good predictions, even 4 months in advance.  the economy, inflation, job growth, war, stock market, Trump.....all of these variables could break for either party.

You forgot the biggie in your last sentence. Joe, # I did this!

i also forgot the impact that RvW might have on this election.
#blameTrump

[Value Buy]

Jun 22, 2022 13:48:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 22, 2022 13:42:19 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

You forgot the biggie in your last sentence. Joe, # I did this!

i also forgot the impact that RvW might have on this election.
#blameTrump

I am back home in Indiana, 40 miles or so from downtown Chicago.
Ilinois has their primary election next week. The political ads attacking each other rival a national fall election. Democrats running on an anti Trump hatred campaign as if he was on the ticket today. Republicans are about as bad discussing Biden and the state of the country.
The accusations against everyone are close to outright lies being thrown around.If true, most should have been prosecuted by now, but this is Illinois........ Governor Pritzer, a democrat, is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a black Mayor of Auroura Illinois running on the Republican ticket for Governor.
I still have not figured out if the Mayor was a former democrat, or always a Republican but the ads show the Mayor praising Pritzer for almosteverything including the sun rising in the morning the last three years and ask voters if he was so happy with Pritzer, why is he trying to run against him if he wins the primary. The assumption is the Mayor might have a chance to beat him in the fall, which is really a stretch so Pritzer wants to bury him in the peimary. Pritzer is already being hailed as a potential Presidential candidate in 2024 by local media outlets. Yes, 2024. That will be good. Another multi billionaire running for the Presidency. Other ads attack the Mayor for various heavy handed tactics while Mayor. I imagine everyone's ads are running to a few hundred million dollars and this is just for the primaries. The Republican leading in the polls is shown as a gun toting Trump fanatic, who will outlaw abortion in the state. That will not happen because democrats control both state houses. Oother democrats are running on the platform they immediately started "protesting against Trump the day he was elected President", and that is just about the only thing they advertise.
Fun times in Illinois.

[Tennesseer]

The GOP has become a 'toxic waste ' of 'autocracy and denialism': Bush strategist

On Wednesday's edition of MSNBC's "Deadline: White House," former George W. Bush campaign strategist Matt Dowd tore into the current state of the Republican Party.

The problem, he argued, is that notwithstanding the recent losses of Trump-endorsed candidates in Georgia, the former president still has a strong command of the party — and even getting rid of him at this point is not going to course-correct the GOP.

"I think we have to stop looking at the environment through the prism of whether or not Donald Trump wins or loses and how that defines the Republican Party," said Dowd. "Georgia is an outlier in this. 94 percent of people that Donald Trump endorsed have won. That's a pretty good record for Donald Trump. I think the worst thing is — which I actually think is far more dangerous — nearly every Republican candidate who has won a primary, a Republican whether endorsed by Donald Trump or not, either pushes the Big Lie, is an election denier, or doesn't have a problem with the move towards autocracy."

The current state of the Republican Party, continued Dowd, is "a little bit like Chernobyl."

"What led to Chernobyl was bad design, misinformation and bad decision-making by people there," continued Dowd. "Just because you remove a person that hit a wrong switch and contributed to the meltdown doesn't mean you don't have nuclear disaster that spreads. Even if you take that person out, Donald Trump, the Republican Party has become a toxic waste of this Big Lie autocracy and denialism. That's, I think, the fundamental problem. There is not Republicans winning who don't buy into a problem that the January 6th Committee is investigating."

This comes as that committee is revealing new details of Trump allies' complicity in the illegal plot to overturn the election, including Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI).

The GOP has become a 'toxic waste ' of 'autocracy and denialism': Bush strategist

[djAdvocate]

Jun 23, 2022 5:22:19 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 22, 2022 13:48:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i also forgot the impact that RvW might have on this election.
#blameTrump

I am back home in Indiana, 40 miles or so from downtown Chicago.

you could stop right there.  that explains a lot about your posts.

VB- earlier you said that Carter was the 2nd worst president.  by what measure did you make this decision?

[djAdvocate]

Jun 23, 2022 10:14:22 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

The GOP has become a 'toxic waste ' of 'autocracy and denialism': Bush strategist

On Wednesday's edition of MSNBC's "Deadline: White House," former George W. Bush campaign strategist Matt Dowd tore into the current state of the Republican Party.

The problem, he argued, is that notwithstanding the recent losses of Trump-endorsed candidates in Georgia, the former president still has a strong command of the party — and even getting rid of him at this point is not going to course-correct the GOP.

"I think we have to stop looking at the environment through the prism of whether or not Donald Trump wins or loses and how that defines the Republican Party," said Dowd. "Georgia is an outlier in this. 94 percent of people that Donald Trump endorsed have won. That's a pretty good record for Donald Trump. I think the worst thing is — which I actually think is far more dangerous — nearly every Republican candidate who has won a primary, a Republican whether endorsed by Donald Trump or not, either pushes the Big Lie, is an election denier, or doesn't have a problem with the move towards autocracy."

The current state of the Republican Party, continued Dowd, is "a little bit like Chernobyl."

"What led to Chernobyl was bad design, misinformation and bad decision-making by people there," continued Dowd. "Just because you remove a person that hit a wrong switch and contributed to the meltdown doesn't mean you don't have nuclear disaster that spreads. Even if you take that person out, Donald Trump, the Republican Party has become a toxic waste of this Big Lie autocracy and denialism. That's, I think, the fundamental problem. There is not Republicans winning who don't buy into a problem that the January 6th Committee is investigating."

This comes as that committee is revealing new details of Trump allies' complicity in the illegal plot to overturn the election, including Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI).

The GOP has become a 'toxic waste ' of 'autocracy and denialism': Bush strategist

this is an excellent analogy.  the GOP is a toxic waste .  it will poison American politics for decades, or even centuries.

Trumpism is no longer an anti-government INSURGENCY.  it IS the GOP.  rooting for their victory is akin to rooting for death and destruction.

[Value Buy]

Jun 23, 2022 12:52:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 23, 2022 5:22:19 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I am back home in Indiana, 40 miles or so from downtown Chicago.

you could stop right there.  that explains a lot about your posts.

VB- earlier you said that Carter was the 2nd worst president.  by what measure did you make this decision?

You can stop right there!
I have always mentioned I am from Northwest Indiana  
I was raised in the democratic stronghold of Lake County Indiana home of East Chicago and Gary democratic political thieves. I escaped to a more middle of America neighboring county at an early age.

I believe Biden is passing Carter in his polling history. I was not saying in the history of the country, I was talking about just in our lifetime.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 23, 2022 14:18:02 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 23, 2022 12:52:33 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

you could stop right there.  that explains a lot about your posts.

VB- earlier you said that Carter was the 2nd worst president.  by what measure did you make this decision?

You can stop right there!
I have always mentioned I am from Northwest Indiana  
I was raised in the democratic stronghold of Lake County Indiana home of East Chicago and Gary democratic political thieves. I escaped to a more middle of America neighboring county at an early age.

I believe Biden is passing Carter in his polling history. I was not saying in the history of the country, I was talking about just in our lifetime.

ok, do you mind if i correct you on both counts?  in terms of polling averages:

Trump was at 37% on day 200.
Clinton was at 37% on day 131.  he won re-election.
Ford was at 35% on day 160.
Truman was at 33% on day 530 (next week).
W was at 28% on day 1300.
Reagan was at 35% on day 762.


in fact the ONLY president to not breach 40% since Nixon was Obama.  so, yeah, you are completely wrong.  he is actually the second BEST poller during that time in terms of "all time polling low during office".

in future, if you could specify POLLING as your measure, it will save me a lot of keystrokes.  in the mean time, you are going to have to find a different measure for second worst, because Biden is not even close on this one.