the ole shortage of just about anything these days

[Value Buy]

Kelly Evans of CNBC penned an essay onthe shortages ocurring around the world.

www.cnbc.com/2021/09/27/kelly-evans-the-everything-shortage.html?recirc=taboolainternal

[dondub]

Sept 30, 2021 15:23:42 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Kelly Evans of CNBC penned an essay onthe shortages ocurring around the world.

www.cnbc.com/2021/09/27/kelly-evans-the-everything-shortage.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Consider the source.

[daisylu]

Well, we are seeing limits on tp and other paper products around here.

[Value Buy]

I know there seems to be the mantra of fewer commercial drivers on the job, but try driving on any state road or any interstate. They are out there, at least hauling heavy indstry products. Granted the car transports are missing but that is due to the chip shortage.
What is not discussed anywhere, is how many drivers have been diverted to the southern border delivering bottled water, food dupplies and necessities every day? How many trucks of water are delivered across the southern border by the federal government? These are drivers are not delivering to their usual routes of grocery stores or Wal Mart centers, etc, across the country.
How many food manufacturers are now processing fat inflated government contracts fulfilling food requirements to possible illlegal border crossers every day that are delivered by commercial truck and some companies diverting some manufacturing away from their retail markets? I have young relatives complaining diapers are sporadically out of stock now. Do you think, there is an even a slight chance diapers are headed to the Texas and Arizona border instead of Wal Mart and Krogers?
Now add FEMA into the picture the last two months fighting hurricanes and torrential rains from Louisiana, all the way up the east coast as well as inland states such as Tennessee delivering food and water supplies to staging areas in how many states? All these products are diverted from the usual distribution system.
Can anyone in any actual knowledgable position tell America how many trucks and drivers have been diverted every day to emergencies and taken off the usual land destinations across the country?
25?
50?
150?
300?
600?
How many?

[thyme4change]

I would also like to see some data that has any indication that commercial transportation issues in the USA are due to deliveries to people asking for refugee status on the southern border. It sounds absolutely ridiculous to me - but if someone has a citation that shows that has even a minor effect, I would love to see it.

[MJ2.0]

You know what’s causing shortages? Interruptions in the supply chain, like world events, weather, shortage of drivers (and workers in general) due to it having been more lucrative to stay home and collect bennies than to work. You know what else is taxing the transportation network? People ordering more stuff! E-commerce is clogging up the network really badly, so just think about that while you are ordering crap from Amazon or any other online retailer.

[NomoreDramaQ1015]

It must be really soothing and peaceful to live in a world where EVERYTHING is the fault of the Southern boarder.   Keeps people listening to the of the xenophobia drum rather than turning their attention to the actual problems facing the country/world and demanding they be solved.   Ride yourself into office on the sweeping promise that if we just get rid of brown people all our ills will be solved!

The chemicals we have trouble getting in come from China.  I'd love to hear logic on how that is the the fault of South American Refugees. 

[Tiny]

On a humorous note... my sibling was stressed/upset about the coming natural gas shortage and how they feared there might not be enough to heat their home and how prices would jump astronomically...   and then started ranting about how America has stopped "fracking" or whatever and how very wrong that is.... 

 
And I was like, um, we don't live in the UK or Europe...  America has got plenty of Natural Gas - we export it to other countries.   I don't think you need to worry about "rationing" and I don't think you need to worry about "astronomical" prices....  Yes, the cost of natural gas may go up - it's been low/cheap for a lot of years.   And the cost does go up an down (cyclically).

I really wish my relatives would watch more than one news station. 

My BFF  "heard" or "read" that Forever postage stamps were temporarily (for 3 months)  jumping up to 75 cents each starting today.  She was in a panic to buy stamps - she doesn't online bank and doesn't have anything charged to her CC  so she mails EVERY bill every month. 

And I was like, "Wow! that's big news!  That seems weird that the price of stamps would jump for 3 months....  did you google for more info??" 

As far as I can tell - the price of First Class Stamps is not going up.  The costs to mail some packages/envelopes is going up. 

[Tiny]

And to the topic.... it's looking like most shortages are caused by NOT being able to move products quickly.   There are plenty of raw materials and workers and places to manufacture.... it's moving all the stuff around that's the issue.  

I don't think this is a "economic" crisis....  it's a "slow down" in the ability to create craptastic stuff to sell to people.     


I would guess that the more craptastic something is - the less likely it will be produced and demand will fall off (it's craptastic no one needs it for day to day life) - which will keep the parts for those products OUT of the supply line - and with less "traffic" the  nicer higher end craptastic stuff  will get produced faster...   and then as the moving/supply movement gets  back to less chaos  the more craptastic stuff will be produced and off we go buying stuff we don't really need! 

  

[bean29]

Oct 1, 2021 9:29:27 GMT -5 MJ2.0 said:

You know what’s causing shortages? Interruptions in the supply chain, like world events, weather, shortage of drivers (and workers in general) due to it having been more lucrative to stay home and collect bennies than to work. You know what else is taxing the transportation network? People ordering more stuff! E-commerce is clogging up the network really badly, so just think about that while you are ordering crap from Amazon or any other online retailer.

When we had that picture of the ships waiting in port to unload a few days ago, I wondered why someone with logistical expertise just does not start coordinating everything.  The article said there was a shortage of dock workers, shortage of truck drivers, shortage of warehouse space...But Damn - someone needs to fix the log jam and get stuff flowing again.

Idk about E-Commerce clogging up the network.  I just ordered shoes today from DSW-I got 2 day shipping to the house.  I did check to see if they were available in a store close to me, but they were not.  I was sorry afterwards that I did not chose to ship them to the store to pick up in store.  If you don't like the way they fit, they never charge them to your card.  It is no less convenient b/c if you don't like the shoes, you have to return them anyways.  I am sure shipping to store also helps limit the number of trucks driving around. 

I ordered file folders from Amazon last week.  They actually were a better deal b/c I got more for the $$ spent, but when I decided I wanted more, I just ordered from Target, and picked them up at the store.  When I drove past Office Depot/Office Max the other day they had signs up for curbside pickup.  I think if we all start using more curbside pick up at local stores, maybe that will help both keep local stores in business and limit the shipping bottlenecks.

Idk about people not working b/c it is more lucrative to collect bennes than to work.  To my knowledge I don't know anyone that had long term unemployment last year.  Everyone seems to be working.  Now that they stopped the extended UC, one would think that everyone that was willing and able to work would be working.  

[MJ2.0]

Oct 1, 2021 10:13:35 GMT -5 bean29 said:

Oct 1, 2021 9:29:27 GMT -5 MJ2.0 said:

You know what’s causing shortages? Interruptions in the supply chain, like world events, weather, shortage of drivers (and workers in general) due to it having been more lucrative to stay home and collect bennies than to work. You know what else is taxing the transportation network? People ordering more stuff! E-commerce is clogging up the network really badly, so just think about that while you are ordering crap from Amazon or any other online retailer.

When we had that picture of the ships waiting in port to unload a few days ago, I wondered why someone with logistical expertise just does not start coordinating everything.  The article said there was a shortage of dock workers, shortage of truck drivers, shortage of warehouse space...But Damn - someone needs to fix the log jam and get stuff flowing again.

Idk about E-Commerce clogging up the network.  I just ordered shoes today from DSW-I got 2 day shipping to the house.  I did check to see if they were available in a store close to me, but they were not.  I was sorry afterwards that I did not chose to ship them to the store to pick up in store.  If you don't like the way they fit, they never charge them to your card.  It is no less convenient b/c if you don't like the shoes, you have to return them anyways.  I am sure shipping to store also helps limit the number of trucks driving around. 

I ordered file folders from Amazon last week.  They actually were a better deal b/c I got more for the $$ spent, but when I decided I wanted more, I just ordered from Target, and picked them up at the store.  When I drove past Office Depot/Office Max the other day they had signs up for curbside pickup.  I think if we all start using more curbside pick up at local stores, maybe that will help both keep local stores in business and limit the shipping bottlenecks.

Idk about people not working b/c it is more lucrative to collect bennes than to work.  To my knowledge I don't know anyone that had long term unemployment last year.  Everyone seems to be working.  Now that they stopped the extended UC, one would think that everyone that was willing and able to work would be working.  

I’m not saying that you won’t get items that you’re ordering online in a timely manner. I’m saying that with everyone doing it, Ground or lower priority packages will experience additions delays. These bottlenecks are also regional.

And you may not know anyone personally who decided not to work and collect benefits last year, but believe me - as someone who works in logistics, tons of drivers did exactly that last year. I know because I had to deal with the fallout on the retail end. One of my good friends is a project manager for a small pharmaceutical company. They were very close to missing a deadline because one of their manufacturers could not get people in the building to work because it was more lucrative for them to not work and collect unemployment. I know most of this happened last year and the additional stimulus money is no longer being given out, but this all has a ripple effect. People aren’t going to instantly start working and the supply chain isn’t going to instantly improve.

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

There have been 2 houses built near me that are recently completed other than neither have any garage doors.  I'm wondering if there is an issue with these too.  These houses have been done for about 3-4 months now.

Ironically, the doors in need seem to be a double garage door, a single garage door and one that is high for an RV. 

[Value Buy]

Oct 1, 2021 10:04:00 GMT -5 Tiny said:

On a humorous note... my sibling was stressed/upset about the coming natural gas shortage and how they feared there might not be enough to heat their home and how prices would jump astronomically...   and then started ranting about how America has stopped "fracking" or whatever and how very wrong that is.... 

 
And I was like, um, we don't live in the UK or Europe...  America has got plenty of Natural Gas - we export it to other countries.   I don't think you need to worry about "rationing" and I don't think you need to worry about "astronomical" prices....  Yes, the cost of natural gas may go up - it's been low/cheap for a lot of years.   And the cost does go up an down (cyclically).

I really wish my relatives would watch more than one news station. 

My BFF  "heard" or "read" that Forever postage stamps were temporarily (for 3 months)  jumping up to 75 cents each starting today.  She was in a panic to buy stamps - she doesn't online bank and doesn't have anything charged to her CC  so she mails EVERY bill every month. 

And I was like, "Wow! that's big news!  That seems weird that the price of stamps would jump for 3 months....  did you google for more info??" 

As far as I can tell - the price of First Class Stamps is not going up.  The costs to mail some packages/envelopes is going up. 

You are correct about no natural gas shortage in the U.S.
Now, let's talk about natural gas pricing on the energy markets. It has doubled over last year at this time. Last year this month it was trading in the $2.50 range on the futures market. Today it is near $5.40 on the exchanges for I believe the November delivery contract. Understand that not all natural gas utilities buy all their ng needs in advance through forward month contracts. Some have storage facilities where they buy the ng at cheap prices in the summer and selling it when needed to the consumers at the low price in the winter. Half way through the season they have to replenish these storage areas with the higher priced ng and raise the heating bill accordingly. Some do, others do not buy futures contracts months ahead of delivery.  Adding to the fact some customers have the ability to buy their needs from whoever they want but do not realize their low prices are susceptible to a huge price swings upward because these companies have been buying their product on excess supplies selling for less than the futures contracts. If we have a severe cold December, you can expect all utilities will be charging at a minimum, twice the rate for the NG than last year. Most state regulators covering utility costs allow the utilities to pass the cost of the gas onto the customers and utilities only receive the "percentage over cost" allowed by the state Regulators. I am expecting to pay twice as much for ng this year over last years cost of ng. And this is only based on current pricing. Europe is in trouble because right now they are paying in the near $20 range for ng compared to us here in the U.S. if they can even find enough ng to purchase. There was even an electric utlity that was out of coal this week over there for whatever reason.......Keep an eye on European news about this issue to forecast what happens here. Granted, we will never hit the $20 range here.

[thyme4change]

Oct 1, 2021 10:23:49 GMT -5 MJ2.0 said:

Oct 1, 2021 10:13:35 GMT -5 bean29 said:

When we had that picture of the ships waiting in port to unload a few days ago, I wondered why someone with logistical expertise just does not start coordinating everything.  The article said there was a shortage of dock workers, shortage of truck drivers, shortage of warehouse space...But Damn - someone needs to fix the log jam and get stuff flowing again.

Idk about E-Commerce clogging up the network.  I just ordered shoes today from DSW-I got 2 day shipping to the house.  I did check to see if they were available in a store close to me, but they were not.  I was sorry afterwards that I did not chose to ship them to the store to pick up in store.  If you don't like the way they fit, they never charge them to your card.  It is no less convenient b/c if you don't like the shoes, you have to return them anyways.  I am sure shipping to store also helps limit the number of trucks driving around. 

I ordered file folders from Amazon last week.  They actually were a better deal b/c I got more for the $$ spent, but when I decided I wanted more, I just ordered from Target, and picked them up at the store.  When I drove past Office Depot/Office Max the other day they had signs up for curbside pickup.  I think if we all start using more curbside pick up at local stores, maybe that will help both keep local stores in business and limit the shipping bottlenecks.

Idk about people not working b/c it is more lucrative to collect bennes than to work.  To my knowledge I don't know anyone that had long term unemployment last year.  Everyone seems to be working.  Now that they stopped the extended UC, one would think that everyone that was willing and able to work would be working.  

I’m not saying that you won’t get items that you’re ordering online in a timely manner. I’m saying that with everyone doing it, Ground or lower priority packages will experience additions delays. These bottlenecks are also regional.

And you may not know anyone personally who decided not to work and collect benefits last year, but believe me - as someone who works in logistics, tons of drivers did exactly that last year. I know because I had to deal with the fallout on the retail end. One of my good friends is a project manager for a small pharmaceutical company. They were very close to missing a deadline because one of their manufacturers could not get people in the building to work because it was more lucrative for them to not work and collect unemployment. I know most of this happened last year and the additional stimulus money is no longer being given out, but this all has a ripple effect. People aren’t going to instantly start working and the supply chain isn’t going to instantly improve.

Haven't all those extra benefits stopped? Or is it still just some states?

[Value Buy]

Oct 1, 2021 11:01:37 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Oct 1, 2021 10:23:49 GMT -5 MJ2.0 said:

I’m not saying that you won’t get items that you’re ordering online in a timely manner. I’m saying that with everyone doing it, Ground or lower priority packages will experience additions delays. These bottlenecks are also regional.

And you may not know anyone personally who decided not to work and collect benefits last year, but believe me - as someone who works in logistics, tons of drivers did exactly that last year. I know because I had to deal with the fallout on the retail end. One of my good friends is a project manager for a small pharmaceutical company. They were very close to missing a deadline because one of their manufacturers could not get people in the building to work because it was more lucrative for them to not work and collect unemployment. I know most of this happened last year and the additional stimulus money is no longer being given out, but this all has a ripple effect. People aren’t going to instantly start working and the supply chain isn’t going to instantly improve.

Haven't all those extra benefits stopped? Or is it still just some states?

The extra Federal monthly payment has stopped. I believe some states are still paying beyond their original monthly numbers, and many states had extended months they tacked on that unemployed still received the benefits

[pulmonarymd]

And there was no difference in changes in unemployment rates in states that stopped them earlier and those that continued them. kind of refutes the claim that they were the cause of the worker shortage

[MJ2.0]

Oct 1, 2021 11:17:59 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

And there was no difference in changes in unemployment rates in states that stopped them earlier and those that continued them. kind of refutes the claim that they were the cause of the worker shortage

May not have been the cause but they were definitely a contributing factor.

[pulmonarymd]

theweek.com/unemployment/1003354/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not

www.newsbreak.com/news/2330729369453/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not-boost-rehiring

www.wsj.com/articles/states-that-cut-unemployment-benefits-saw-limited-impact-on-job-growth-11630488601

Does not appear to have had a significant effect

[Value Buy]

Oct 1, 2021 11:17:59 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

And there was no difference in changes in unemployment rates in states that stopped them earlier and those that continued them. kind of refutes the claim that they were the cause of the worker shortage

Have all the states released data showing the September numbers yet? Federal payments did not stop until after the first week in September. The states that did drop the federal stipend in August would only have early data on everyone in the state. I can believe if you are on unemployment just because you stopped getting the $300 federal payment does not mean you automatically find a job the next week. 

[pulmonarymd]

Well, I guess it didn't magically send people back to work then, it required some time. It is just 10/1, a little early for that data, don't you think. If unemployment was the only reason, since states started to cut off the extra in June, why have we not seen any evidence it worked. It still was 2 months of data. more than enough time to see a benefit, right?

[MJ2.0]

Oct 1, 2021 11:28:51 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

theweek.com/unemployment/1003354/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not

www.newsbreak.com/news/2330729369453/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not-boost-rehiring

www.wsj.com/articles/states-that-cut-unemployment-benefits-saw-limited-impact-on-job-growth-11630488601

Does not appear to have had a significant effect

So why else aren’t people returning to work?

[pulmonarymd]

I suspect many of them worked in lousy jobs, and do not want to go back to the same circumstances as before. I think childcare has a huge role to play in the return to the workforce. I also suspect that some who are old enough to say screw it, I am done, are doing it, and that some permanent change in the workforce has occurred. People do not want to risk their lives for $10/hour and poor work environments. I am in no way an expert in this, just some observations from discussions with my patients.

[MJ2.0]

Oct 1, 2021 13:37:07 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

I suspect many of them worked in lousy jobs, and do not want to go back to the same circumstances as before. I think childcare has a huge role to play in the return to the workforce. I also suspect that some who are old enough to say screw it, I am done, are doing it, and that some permanent change in the workforce has occurred. People do not want to risk their lives for $10/hour and poor work environments. I am in no way an expert in this, just some observations from discussions with my patients.

I definitely agree with all those reasons as well. It’s definitely a job-seekers market in a lot of sectors right now. I work with large freight companies, and they are trying to do a mass hiring right now for over 10,000 positions. They are not getting nearly the response they need, even after upping the starting rate. If I were you, I’d start ordering holiday items now.

[Value Buy]

Oct 1, 2021 13:33:50 GMT -5 MJ2.0 said:

Oct 1, 2021 11:28:51 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

theweek.com/unemployment/1003354/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not

www.newsbreak.com/news/2330729369453/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not-boost-rehiring

www.wsj.com/articles/states-that-cut-unemployment-benefits-saw-limited-impact-on-job-growth-11630488601

Does not appear to have had a significant effect

So why else aren’t people returning to work?

First two articles were dated August 4th. Very few states had ended the federal payment before that, and they show no data proving their thesis. the entire article was almost a tweet in length with Steve Leisman from CNBC just saying HOW GREAT THIS SOURCE HAS BEEN IN THE PAST, but he did not report one stat.

WSJ, I Had a paywall and could not look at it.

[NomoreDramaQ1015]

I know the first thing DH's employer did back in 2020 was pressure anyone who was close to retirement to do so.   Then started laying them off.  Problem is they didn't stop to consider there aren't younger people coming up behind them and at the time weren't willing to train anyone on the job, they wanted experience.

Press operators is a big one.  When DH learned years ago you apprenticed on the job and rose to operator.   When companies stopped doing in house training they wanted people with experience.  Guess who has experience?   There was no way for young people to really break into it anymore and it's slowly become a dying art.

They've changed their tune in the last couple of months because now they are looking at 2023 for order filling.

I wonder how many other companies out there jumped the gun to slash budgets without considering there aren't young people willing to replace the ones they kicked out?  Or were thinking the retirement age folks were going to happily come back to work with all forgiven?

They have been saying for years there would be labor shortages as the baby boomers start to exit the workforce.  COVID probably accelerated that.

[NoNamePerson]

Oct 1, 2021 13:47:53 GMT -5 NomoreDramaQ1015 said:

I know the first thing DH's employer did back in 2020 was pressure anyone who was close to retirement to do so.   Then started laying them off.  Problem is they didn't stop to consider there aren't younger people coming up behind them and at the time weren't willing to train anyone on the job, they wanted experience.

Press operators is a big one.  When DH learned years ago you apprenticed on the job and rose to operator.   When companies stopped doing in house training they wanted people with experience.  Guess who has experience?   There was no way for young people to really break into it anymore and it's slowly become a dying art.

They've changed their tune in the last couple of months because now they are looking at 2023 for order filling.

I wonder how many other companies out there jumped the gun to slash budgets without considering there aren't young people willing to replace the ones they kicked out?  Or were thinking the retirement age folks were going to happily come back to work with all forgiven?

They have been saying for years there would be labor shortages as the baby boomers start to exit the workforce.  COVID probably accelerated that.

Hopefully those businesses will fail. Karma

[teen persuasion]

Oct 1, 2021 13:33:50 GMT -5 MJ2.0 said:

Oct 1, 2021 11:28:51 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

theweek.com/unemployment/1003354/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not

www.newsbreak.com/news/2330729369453/jobs-data-suggest-states-that-cut-off-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-did-not-boost-rehiring

www.wsj.com/articles/states-that-cut-unemployment-benefits-saw-limited-impact-on-job-growth-11630488601

Does not appear to have had a significant effect

So why else aren’t people returning to work?

Well, we are in a pandemic.  What's the death toll up to now?

Then there's lingering health issues for up to 1/3 of those who survive.

Next add people like my DH, who have retired.  We were closing in on FIRE and planned OMY for him anyway when Covid hit, but teaching remote with noncompliant students really made it an easy decision.  Years ago he would have hung on, because they *needed* him at work; now, nope - I'm done.  Bye.

You know, it's funny - once DH announced that he intended to leave, several younger co-workers asked *how* he could afford to retire at 55 with no pension.  They seriously wanted to do it, too.  His aide (in her 70s) talked about retiring, finally, too; she liked working with him, and didn't look forward to breaking in another newbie.  So he may have started a snowball rolling...

[thyme4change]

Oct 1, 2021 14:39:50 GMT -5 teen persuasion said:

Oct 1, 2021 13:33:50 GMT -5 MJ2.0 said:

So why else aren’t people returning to work?

Well, we are in a pandemic.  What's the death toll up to now?

Then there's lingering health issues for up to 1/3 of those who survive.

Next add people like my DH, who have retired.  We were closing in on FIRE and planned OMY for him anyway when Covid hit, but teaching remote with noncompliant students really made it an easy decision.  Years ago he would have hung on, because they *needed* him at work; now, nope - I'm done.  Bye.

You know, it's funny - once DH announced that he intended to leave, several younger co-workers asked *how* he could afford to retire at 55 with no pension.  They seriously wanted to do it, too.  His aide (in her 70s) talked about retiring, finally, too; she liked working with him, and didn't look forward to breaking in another newbie.  So he may have started a snowball rolling...

The number of people who retired last year is like 2M++ higher than the average run rate. So, right there we have 2 million people out of the workforce that we did not think would be out of the workforce. That is 2020 - maybe there are even more in 202q.

I have been trying to find disability numbers, as I do think there are lots of people who have long covid so bad it prevents them from working. I know there are a lot of different types of long covid - but it sounds like lung and heart problems would be the biggest disability. Probably hardest on people who have physically taxing jobs - including wait staff, or maybe you don't want to drive a truck if your heart is weak - being away from home, and alone.

And then you get the Moms. Even with kids returning to school, there have been a lot breakouts which require kids to quarantine. After care programs are sketchy. There are a lot of families that have already adjusted to a single income - so, if you have a few young children staying home might make sense to chose against working.

I hear the random stories about people who lost their job, and decided to live in a van, or move to a farm to work, or some other huge life change that took them away from the work they were doing. I suspect that isn't very many people. But, there might be 400,000 adult children and grandchildren who just got an inheritance. Even if it was relatively small, someone might extend their unemployment for a few month because work is figuratively toxic, and literally dangerous now.

[NomoreDramaQ1015]

Large amounts of women have left the workforce as child and elder care fell even more on their shoulders and are having trouble getting back in.

It's so bad it's predicted it will set back women's progress for decades.

So add a few several thousand workers to your total.

UE is a drop in the bucket.

[MJ2.0]

Oh geez I didn’t even think about the Boomers who are aging and would need care even without Covid in the picture…