“Made in China” and the Shipping “Crisis”

[Deleted]

I was reading about some of the issues companies and retailers are experiencing getting goods available for consumers to buy. I understand there are multiple problems getting goods to retailers, but I’m really curious about the shipping issues.

I’d already wondered if the long delays might cause some companies to reconsider having their products made in China, so far away from America. Then I read that Steve Madden has moved some of their production from China, to Mexico and Brazil “in an effort to shorten delivery times”. So I guess I wasn’t too far off track with my wondering. The company says they are missing sales because they don’t have enough goods available to sell. 

Some companies have opted to fly some of their products to avoid the current delays with shipping over water, which is now causing issues at some of the larger airports. IIRC correctly, it’s also more expensive, causing the costs for consumers to increase.

What do you all think about all of this? Do you think more companies might bring production of their goods closer to America if this continues?

I haven’t given this a lot of thought, just read a few articles about it, so if I misstated anything, I’m good with being corrected. Per the last article I read,  it seems that companies are trying to increase the availability of what they sell, especially as we get closer to the Christmas season. That is the same article where I read about SteveMadden. link

[daisylu]

I have not read much on it, but if places start moving back to the US where will the get workers? Our area of northern Virginia has tons of manufacturing and have been scrambling for workers even pre-pandemic. The pandemic has made it 100x worse. I remember a time when we wished companies would reinvest in America from overseas.

I have heard several news outlets talking about shortages over Christmas, so plan to buy early. I have not paid much attention because other than 1 small niece and 1 small nephew we have mostly migrated to cash Christmas.

[happyhoix]

I saw several years back that some US manufacturers who had moved to China were returning to the US because China doesn’t protect trade secret information and they were freely stealing specs for things like washers and fridges. Wouldn’t apply to things like clothes though.

I work for a manufacturing company and we’re running into problems with Covid related reductions in production for our ingredients, as well as the shipping problems. We only manufacture in the US but get ingredients from everywhere. We’ve had five record setting sales months so far this year, but sometimes can’t meet production needs for some products due to ingredient supplies and our own Covid manpower issues.

[Tiny]

Isn't this kind of a "First World Problem"?

As far as I can tell the stuff necessary for daily life isn't in short supply and probably won't be missing from Christmas.
It seems to me like it's the "nice to have" or "we don't really need this - we just think we need it" kind of stuff.

I can see manufacturers looking for other sources if delivery times are long. I don't think demand for products that are some what "come and go" will cause more manufacturing to start up here. Isn't that one way "prices" stay low - Country A builds a factory and makes GeeGaws version1.0 and then in 5 years when the factory needs to be retooled to create GeeGaws2.0 it's too expensive to do so - because Country B has already built a brand new factory to make GeeGaws2.0 and can produce them cheaper than retooled Country A's retooled factory.

I'm guessing most businesses making products - have been and are assuming they will have "shortages" of some sort and so are redoing their Marketing to highlight the products they do have available (to increase demand for them). I'm guessing they aren't finding ways to bump up production on stuff that might only be needed for 1 year.

As in the trade/delivery times will eventually return to "normal" OR if the current lags in delivery are envisioned to be long term (several years?) they will get built into the future plans.



I think the speed of "change"  and the need to keep up to be profitable is becoming a bigger and bigger problem....   I see it at my office job - technology changes so fast there's no time to become "proficient" with new tech if you are currently working with the old 'tech'.    

[bean29]

I suspect that when Manufacturing comes back to the US, there will be a lot of Robotics included, so not sure how much manpower will be required.  I do think they will move more manufacturing back to the US though.  

I saw an article this weekend that Ford wants to go to more of a model where customers order closer to 70-80% of the autos they want to be delivered within approximately 60 days and they manufacture about 30% of their production to be sold on dealer lots.  This opens up an interesting question of whether or not States will allow vehicles to be sold direct by manufacturers cutting out the dealer as middleman.

[daisylu]

Aug 30, 2021 10:49:35 GMT -5 bean29 said:

I suspect that when Manufacturing comes back to the US, there will be a lot of Robotics included, so not sure how much manpower will be required.  I do think they will move more manufacturing back to the US though.  

I saw an article this weekend that Ford wants to go to more of a model where customers order closer to 70-80% of the autos they want to be delivered within approximately 60 days and they manufacture about 30% of their production to be sold on dealer lots.  This opens up an interesting question of whether or not States will allow vehicles to be sold direct by manufacturers cutting out the dealer as middleman.

That sounds like it would make a lot of Americans unhappy, unless all manufacturers go that route. Usually, when most people want/need a new car, they want it now.

[bean29]

Aug 30, 2021 11:47:20 GMT -5 daisylu said:

Aug 30, 2021 10:49:35 GMT -5 bean29 said:

I suspect that when Manufacturing comes back to the US, there will be a lot of Robotics included, so not sure how much manpower will be required.  I do think they will move more manufacturing back to the US though.  

I saw an article this weekend that Ford wants to go to more of a model where customers order closer to 70-80% of the autos they want to be delivered within approximately 60 days and they manufacture about 30% of their production to be sold on dealer lots.  This opens up an interesting question of whether or not States will allow vehicles to be sold direct by manufacturers cutting out the dealer as middleman.

That sounds like it would make a lot of Americans unhappy, unless all manufacturers go that route. Usually, when most people want/need a new car, they want it now.

I decided I want what I want.  I want a RAV4 Prime (and my other criteria are AWD, Heated Leather Seats, and heated steering wheel, which pushes us to higher end anyways)  The Prime is an Electric/Hybrid combo. They are not selling them too much in the Midwest.  DH found one on the East Coast and we had discussed the possibility of buying a car from out east.  Then we talked to the neighbors and found out he went to New York in Spring to get the same car I wanted.  So, we put $$ down one one that is supposed to be available soon.  That was Mid-July.  Our weekends are packed all through September, so it is fine if it is not available for a bit yet.  I not only want the specific Model of Car, I pretty much want a certain color, but I told DH if there are problems, I can be a little flexible on color.  We are not happy with how our Santa Fe is driving.  We had anticipated getting another year out of it, but it is on its way our of our household.  

I really wanted to go with him to get it, but he told me last night the reason he wants me to stay home is to watch the dogs.  I guess it will depend if DD can go with him or not.  We will fly out to get it and return with the car.

[jerseygirl]

Aug 30, 2021 10:49:35 GMT -5 bean29 said:

I suspect that when Manufacturing comes back to the US, there will be a lot of Robotics included, so not sure how much manpower will be required.  I do think they will move more manufacturing back to the US though.  

I saw an article this weekend that Ford wants to go to more of a model where customers order closer to 70-80% of the autos they want to be delivered within approximately 60 days and they manufacture about 30% of their production to be sold on dealer lots.  This opens up an interesting question of whether or not States will allow vehicles to be sold direct by manufacturers cutting out the dealer as middleman.

Tesla already does this. There are stores in malls that have displays of colors, models and cars are available for test drives. When you decide to buy, sit with a rep and go through model wanted, colors, tires etc
The price is set - no negotiation needed or available
Then your car is delivered (mine in about 6 weeks), you go though a tutorial on the car’s systems, go over to look for any finish issues, paperwork etc
License and registration all included.

Think some states still not allowing this - dealers want to keep their business . I really dislike the price negotiating , always feel I’m being cheated

[daisylu]

Aug 30, 2021 11:58:23 GMT -5 bean29 said:

Aug 30, 2021 11:47:20 GMT -5 daisylu said:

That sounds like it would make a lot of Americans unhappy, unless all manufacturers go that route. Usually, when most people want/need a new car, they want it now.

I decided I want what I want.  I want a RAV4 Prime (and my other criteria are AWD, Heated Leather Seats, and heated steering wheel, which pushes us to higher end anyways)  The Prime is an Electric/Hybrid combo. They are not selling them too much in the Midwest.  DH found one on the East Coast and we had discussed the possibility of buying a car from out east.  Then we talked to the neighbors and found out he went to New York in Spring to get the same car I wanted.  So, we put $$ down one one that is supposed to be available soon.  That was Mid-July.  Our weekends are packed all through September, so it is fine if it is not available for a bit yet.  I not only want the specific Model of Car, I pretty much want a certain color, but I told DH if there are problems, I can be a little flexible on color.  We are not happy with how our Santa Fe is driving.  We had anticipated getting another year out of it, but it is on its way our of our household.  

I really wanted to go with him to get it, but he told me last night the reason he wants me to stay home is to watch the dogs.  I guess it will depend if DD can go with him or not.  We will fly out to get it and return with the car.

My point was that many people do not that luxury. I like my car, and if someone hit me and totaled my car tomorrow I would want/need it replaced ASAP. I do have a backup car, but it is not AWD and will do me no good in winter driving.

[bean29]

Aug 30, 2021 13:59:57 GMT -5 daisylu said:

Aug 30, 2021 11:58:23 GMT -5 bean29 said:

I decided I want what I want.  I want a RAV4 Prime (and my other criteria are AWD, Heated Leather Seats, and heated steering wheel, which pushes us to higher end anyways)  The Prime is an Electric/Hybrid combo. They are not selling them too much in the Midwest.  DH found one on the East Coast and we had discussed the possibility of buying a car from out east.  Then we talked to the neighbors and found out he went to New York in Spring to get the same car I wanted.  So, we put $$ down one one that is supposed to be available soon.  That was Mid-July.  Our weekends are packed all through September, so it is fine if it is not available for a bit yet.  I not only want the specific Model of Car, I pretty much want a certain color, but I told DH if there are problems, I can be a little flexible on color.  We are not happy with how our Santa Fe is driving.  We had anticipated getting another year out of it, but it is on its way our of our household.  

I really wanted to go with him to get it, but he told me last night the reason he wants me to stay home is to watch the dogs.  I guess it will depend if DD can go with him or not.  We will fly out to get it and return with the car.

My point was that many people do not that luxury. I like my car, and if someone hit me and totaled my car tomorrow I would want/need it replaced ASAP. I do have a backup car, but it is not AWD and will do me no good in winter driving.

I get that, I also know a wealthy person that would order a car to get the stripped down version they preferred - they did not want to pay extra for options they did not want.  I think Ford's intent is to get cars from Factory to consumer faster, and get them exactly what they want.  They still intend to have cars ready for immediate delivery, but want to go to more manufacturing to what consumers want, not guessing what they want and then discounting it when it does not sell.

I live in Wisconsin, we are one of the states protecting the Dealers profit.  I would prefer to cut out the dealer profit.  I usually decide what I want and then use a pricing service to set the price.  You are right about accidents, but what % of cars are leased?  You can predict your lease is ending and you need to decide on a new car, so you could easily reorder a car a few months in advance.  If I had a year to go, I would actually buy a different model.  If I had a 4-6 months to play with, I would go for a 2022 model over a 2021 model, but we need a reliable 2nd car before Winter arrives.

[Tiny]

A trip down the rabbit hole... and I was thinking too small about how disruptions to supply chains effect things further down stream.   I've had to shift my thinking.  


This snipped bit from a new york times article sums it up:

www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/business/supply-chain-shortages.html

The world has gained a painful lesson in how interconnected economies are across vast distances, with delay and shortages in any one place rippling out nearly everywhere.

A shipping container that cannot be unloaded in Los Angeles because too many dockworkers are in quarantine is a container that cannot be loaded with soybeans in Iowa, leaving buyers in Indonesia waiting, and potentially triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.

The possible fact that stores might not have as many Holiday Themed tchotchkes or as many "must have hot new geegaws"  to purchase on Nov. 1st.  is just the tip of the iceberg.

I didn't see the rest of the iceberg. Having closer suppliers might not make all that much a difference. It seems that there are multiple "bottle necks" and trying to re-coordinate the movement is the problem with shipping/supply.

Doesn't matter if the product comes from China or Brazil - if it hits a "bottle neck" or multiple bottle necks  along the way - shipping is effected.

[teen persuasion]

Aug 30, 2021 16:45:26 GMT -5 Tiny said:

A trip down the rabbit hole... and I was thinking too small about how disruptions to supply chains effect things further down stream.   I've had to shift my thinking.  


This snipped bit from a new york times article sums it up:

www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/business/supply-chain-shortages.html

The world has gained a painful lesson in how interconnected economies are across vast distances, with delay and shortages in any one place rippling out nearly everywhere.

A shipping container that cannot be unloaded in Los Angeles because too many dockworkers are in quarantine is a container that cannot be loaded with soybeans in Iowa, leaving buyers in Indonesia waiting, and potentially triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.

The possible fact that stores might not have as many Holiday Themed tchotchkes or as many "must have hot new geegaws"  to purchase on Nov. 1st.  is just the tip of the iceberg.

I didn't see the rest of the iceberg. Having closer suppliers might not make all that much a difference. It seems that there are multiple "bottle necks" and trying to re-coordinate the movement is the problem with shipping/supply.

Doesn't matter if the product comes from China or Brazil - if it hits a "bottle neck" or multiple bottle necks  along the way - shipping is effected.

I've been getting an education in this, thru DS4.  This spring he started working at a feed store a few miles up our road.  He replaced an older guy (retiring, but stepping down to part time).  But older guy also had a second guy helping him. So DS4 replaced two guys, he's doing all the bagging of feed and fertilizer in the warehouse off-site (older guy no longer comes in at all). Then the guy to drive trucks quit. Then another guy quit in a snit. Younger guy who's been there 7 years tweaked his back, and boss got concerned - can't afford to have him out of commission. Other "guy" is a HS teen, not full time. And boss, in his sixties.

They've had issues with corn supplies - used to get deliveries from a local farmer, but when he was out, boss had to take their truck to pick up partial loads where he could find it. Which took time, and diverted him away from other things, and partial loads meant he had to repeat frequently. Lack of truck drivers all around limits suppliers willing to deliver.

Issues with bag supplies - can't bag if you have nothing to put it in. Apparently the supplier can't run their orders unless he has 10 workers, and he's down to 3. They are using unmarked bags from somewhere in SE Asia for now, and printed board tags (when they run out, DS4 resorts to a sharpie letter on a bag). Not sure who prints the tags.

Issues with old equipment breaking down - guys who quit used to fix it. When feed clogs up in chutes/bins, need to frequently stop and break it up, slowing down how many tons a day DS4 produces. Supplies coming in from rail cars sometimes divert DS4 from bagging, if he has to babysit the chutes, too.

Issues with demand - DS4 is new to this, doesn't know the seasonal flow of demand, but has been seeing much more demand for pig feed (supply chain disruption maybe changing farmers' choices of where to focus, direct to customers, etc?), so that he's barely keeping up, given supplies on hand. He expects fertilizer demand to jump up soon, and he can't do both simultaneously by himself (and teen can't be a temp helper due to age, and school starting should limit his hours). When the loading dock runs out of stock, they send buyers over to the warehouse to pick up. So DS4 is loading trucks, too, unexpectedly. Some people are last minute, at 5 minutes to closing. We've had discussions about how to encourage these people to preorder, so it can be palletized in advance - but these people are oblivious to the inconvenience they cause. But it's also a business issue.

Boss has to be looking to retire eventually, or at least cut back his physical involvement, but none of his family are interested in taking over. No interest in selling the business his grandfather started. DS4 says they get business from all over the area, don't think they have local competition. If the business fails (slowly or rapidly), lots of small farmers locally will be scrambling.

[thyme4change]

Getting a container of one of our products from China to the US port was $1,500 18 months ago. It went up to $5,000, and then kept ratcheting up. I approved one this morning for $17,000 - and that is if we can even get it on the boat. We had such bad delays we investigated air freight. That was going to be $100,000+ to get from the airport to our warehouse's door. Not exactly comparable to the above $1,500, which only got it onto us soil - we still had to rail and truck it to our facility. But, it is still a debilitating increase for our business. We have discussed moving away from China. Bring it home to the US, or find a factory in Mexico. I wouldn't be surprised if we just wait it out and stay on China.

[jerseygirl]

Sept 2, 2021 11:17:43 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Getting a container of one of our products from China to the US port was $1,500 18 months ago. It went up to $5,000, and then kept ratcheting up. I approved one this morning for $17,000 - and that is if we can even get it on the boat. We had such bad delays we investigated air freight. That was going to be $100,000+ to get from the airport to our warehouse's door. Not exactly comparable to the above $1,500, which only got it onto us soil - we still had to rail and truck it to our facility. But, it is still a debilitating increase for our business. We have discussed moving away from China. Bring it home to the US, or find a factory in Mexico. I wouldn't be surprised if we just wait it out and stay on China.

Woah ! Huge increase! Hoping bringing back to the US

I’ve been to China 4 times and see all the money from the US building fabulous infrastructure in China instead of here in the US

[djAdvocate]

we recently had an outbound shipment to NZ.
after three weeks, we FINALLY got an ocean quote.
it was cheaper than air, but not much.
the price was $4/lb. that was pretty normal for air,
but about 3x what ocean would normally be.

most definitely supply chain disruption stuff.

[Deleted]

It seems that part of the issue goes back to a thread I started a few mo this ago, talking about the shortage of employees. I’m not trying to rehash that thread here, but it seems like several industries are citing being short of employees as the reason they can’t get things done.

I don’t see this as just a first world problem, mostly because I fear it’s going to get worse and eventually affect things we actually need. Some grocery stores near me still have holes in the shelves again. When I ordered food online from a chain sub shop the other day, there was a notice on their website that due to supply chain issues, all items on their menu might not be available. Every time I buy something online lately, there is the disclaimer that it may take more time than usual for my items to get to me.

I read earlier today that GM is temporarily shutting down their production because of the chip shortage. 

I don’t really have a point, just random thoughts that popped in my head as I read the posts.

[teen persuasion]

Sept 4, 2021 16:34:04 GMT -5 @pinkcshmere said:

It seems that part of the issue goes back to a thread I started a few mo this ago, talking about the shortage of employees. I’m not trying to rehash that thread here, but it seems like several industries are citing being short of employees as the reason they can’t get things done.

I don’t see this as just a first world problem, mostly because I fear it’s going to get worse and eventually affect things we actually need. Some grocery stores near me still have holes in the shelves again. When I ordered food online from a chain sub shop the other day, there was a notice on their website that due to supply chain issues, all items on their menu might not be available. Every time I buy something online lately, there is the disclaimer that it may take more time than usual for my items to get to me.

I read earlier today that GM is temporarily shutting down their production because of the chip shortage. 

I don’t really have a point, just random thoughts that popped in my head as I read the posts.

My library system held their annual dinner last week (skipped last year, and postponed from usual May date).  Instead of a catered affair indoors, it was held picnic style at a park on the lakefront (read, super windy).  They also switched things up to a food truck for dinner, and an ice cream truck for dessert.  Great idea, lots of fun, but the weather took a turn towards fall just the day before and what would have been refreshing during August's unrelenting 80s/90s was downright chilly with the lake winds.  Getting to the point - the ice cream truck had a notice that many regular favorites were unavailable due to supply issues.  No idea what ice cream ingredient shortages there are, but apparently even ice cream treats are affected.

Different note - on Twitter I'm following some British infectious disease specialists, and coincidentally see other UK bits and pieces.  There was discussion of similar shortages in the UK, and blame was put on Brexit limiting European drivers/workers.  So it's not just the US; everyone is sticking their own favorite reason on the issue.

[Ryan]

I import from China, rates used to be $2K/container or so for us.  Our last containers we got were more in the $7500 range and we put ordering on hold until they settle down.  

We prefer to contract out this piece of our business, so overseas has always been the best choice.  The quality is great, they ship on time, and the price is great.  We have tried to bring it to the states, but we have never been able to get a business here interested.  Would be nice to bring it in house, but my dad runs the business and is 72 years old, probably doesn't want to manage anyone more than he needs to.

[djAdvocate]

doing it at cost would likely prohibit that, unless it is one of those 90/10 material jobs.