thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 1, 2021 7:53:20 GMT -5
5 years ago all our execs talked about was inventory reduction goals and working capital. Now all we talk about is backorders and our crappy fill rates. We have all the problems this article discusses. How the World Ran Out of Everything nyti.ms/3yVYhSeIn a time of extraordinary upheaval in the global economy, Just In Time is running late. “It’s sort of like supply chain run amok,” said Willy C. Shih, an international trade expert at Harvard Business School. “In a race to get to the lowest cost, I have concentrated my risk. We are at the logical conclusion of all that.” But the breadth and persistence of the shortages reveal the extent to which the Just in Time idea has come to dominate commercial life. This helps explain why Nike and other apparel brands struggle to stock retail outlets with their wares. It’s one of the reasons construction companies are having trouble purchasing paints and sealants. It was a principal contributor to the tragic shortages of personal protective equipment early in the pandemic, which left frontline medical workers without adequate gear.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Jun 1, 2021 8:37:51 GMT -5
Right US moved huge amounts of manufacturing to China and other lower cost countries but the pandemic showed the risks of offshoring . Cheaper is great until it’s not even there- like the lack of PP needed for hospitals during the early days of the pandemic I worry about too much enthusiasm about solar and wind power and states and cities decreasing natural gas use by policies and laws Is the US willing to mine ‘rare’ earth minerals needed or will we be agreeable to be dependent on the Congo and China? Do we know the huge amounts of land (and ocean) needed to house all the solar and wind generators? US decrease in CO2 has been result of using natural gas rather than coal and oil. Are you comfortable decreasing or even banning US use of NG and indirectly inflating Russian and Middle East NG ?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 1, 2021 9:03:30 GMT -5
Right US moved huge amounts of manufacturing to China and other lower cost countries but the pandemic showed the risks of offshoring . Cheaper is great until it’s not even there- like the lack of PP needed for hospitals during the early days of the pandemic I worry about too much enthusiasm about solar and wind power and states and cities decreasing natural gas use by policies and laws Is the US willing to mine ‘rare’ earth minerals needed or will we be agreeable to be dependent on the Congo and China? Do we know the huge amounts of land (and ocean) needed to house all the solar and wind generators? US decrease in CO2 has been result of using natural gas rather than coal and oil. Are you comfortable decreasing or even banning US use of NG and indirectly inflating Russian and Middle East NG ? Good questions. Turning around the question on land use: Are we willing to dedicate the land needed to house solar and wind generators or will NIMBY win out?
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Lizard Queen
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Post by Lizard Queen on Jun 1, 2021 9:18:08 GMT -5
Right US moved huge amounts of manufacturing to China and other lower cost countries but the pandemic showed the risks of offshoring . Cheaper is great until it’s not even there- like the lack of PP needed for hospitals during the early days of the pandemic I worry about too much enthusiasm about solar and wind power and states and cities decreasing natural gas use by policies and laws Is the US willing to mine ‘rare’ earth minerals needed or will we be agreeable to be dependent on the Congo and China? Do we know the huge amounts of land (and ocean) needed to house all the solar and wind generators? US decrease in CO2 has been result of using natural gas rather than coal and oil. Are you comfortable decreasing or even banning US use of NG and indirectly inflating Russian and Middle East NG ? Huh? I haven't heard anything about eschewing our own natural gas for Russian and Middle East. Do you have a link for that?
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 1, 2021 9:30:13 GMT -5
Are we willing to live with manufacturing plants that generate toxic waste and or contaminate the land/air/water around it (and down stream from it)? If the manufacturing plants do not pay a very high wage are we willing to live with the low income housing areas that will sprout up around them (to house the workers)?? Are we willing to live with all the ills that come along with having "industry" here at home?
It's a double edged sword.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Jun 1, 2021 10:22:16 GMT -5
The "Just in Time" inventory system was coming into vogue around the time I was studying different inventory systems in college. I could already see the potential problems with this system, in spite of the fact that companies would save money in not needing so much warehouse space. It's no big surprise to me that during times of crisis, like a pandemic, that it's coming back to bite us in the butt.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 1, 2021 10:53:09 GMT -5
Is it bad thing that manufacturers may have to choose which of their dozens (or hundreds) of simaliar products they should concentrate on producing? (kind of "Swedish Death Cleaning" on an industry level?)
I'm biased... I want to buy a new mattress pad. I have a waterproof one that I HATE. I could keep living with it. I just want a cotton-ish mattress pad. There were 15 different options at Target, nearly the same number at Kohls and the same at BB&B. All different "brands" and packaging. And not one of them just a plain old cotton-ish mattress pad. I don't want cooling, or gel filled or waterproof or a "topper" or rayon or foam...
Do we as consumers really need 20 different products all in the same price range?? Do we really need that many choices?
Maybe manufacturers NOT having so much "raw materials" will be forced to focus on a fewer products. Maybe any back log of completed products will make it to "market" as shelf space opens up.
Maybe the product packaging won't need to change every 6 months - so the old style looks new again... I'm not sure what happens to all the "old style packaged" stuff... trash? dumped into other countries?
Maybe fewer resources to create disposable "consumables" isn't such a bad thing.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 1, 2021 10:59:20 GMT -5
Or maybe this is just a "return to the good old days" where you ordered something out of a catalog and then waited 6 weeks or 8 weeks (or how ever long) for it to be shipped to you. We are living in a world where we expect what we want to be readily available. We are living in a world where employers/businesses are forever trying to "keep up" with technology changes. There is no down time... as upgrades are being implemented the process of completely replacing it all is also under way. There is no "we're done! and now this will work for 5 or 10 years and then we will have to re-visit it." (I see this even with my "wealthy" acquaintances who remodel their kitchen, then move on to the bathrooms, and then move on to redecorating the other rooms with new furniture and then since 5 or 6 years have past - they are back in their kitchens upgrading what they can - and then they move on the bathrooms and then on to redecorating (because everything is out of style and dated) and then they are back at their outdated/no longer in style 10 year old kitchen... and it starts over again. Sometimes they sell their house and move to a new house - and immediately start "remodeling" they are never NOT changing the 'look and feel' of their home. )
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jun 1, 2021 11:00:39 GMT -5
5 years ago all our execs talked about was inventory reduction goals and working capital. Now all we talk about is backorders and our crappy fill rates. We have all the problems this article discusses. Depending on what you do, you may look back on the time of backorders as "the good times". At least you still have demand for what you produce.
I was somewhat surprised that the article didn't talk about what happens to a widget-maker whose widgets must be combined with a gidget in order to make a gadget. Demand for gadgets may still exist, but if gidgets can't be found, nobody will buy your widgets.
I think that we'll be hearing stories about that happening soon.
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bean29
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Post by bean29 on Jun 1, 2021 11:11:19 GMT -5
My husband's Mustang is worth more than he paid for it about 4 years ago. His Nissan Frontier is worth more than it was worth last year as a used vehicle, but even so, he decided he is not willing to part with either.
I decided I want a Rav4 Prime. It is not available in my area, so I am willing to wait for it to become available unless one of our other vehicles dies.
DS is buying a house. BIL told us to buy the paint, b/c store like Sherwin Williams are running out. He said they have better paint than Home Depot, but he said b/c Home Depot has national contracts they still have paint. We need to stain or deck. I bought the stain a few years ago and we never did it. have no idea if it is any good anymore, but DH said we have lots of paint we bought and never used, so he wants to buy the paint when we are ready to use it.
Don't we manufacture Paint in the US anymore?
DH was questioning how we run short on microchips. He thinks the shortages are BS.
I did not read the article - I needed to subscribe or create an account, and I am resistant to doing that anymore. I am thinking about adding another virtual subscription, but have not decided which one to go for yet.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 1, 2021 11:26:49 GMT -5
Are we willing to live with manufacturing plants that generate toxic waste and or contaminate the land/air/water around it (and down stream from it)? If the manufacturing plants do not pay a very high wage are we willing to live with the low income housing areas that will sprout up around them (to house the workers)?? Are we willing to live with all the ills that come along with having "industry" here at home? It's a double edged sword. And, "What workers?" Remember, people aren't willing to work anymore.
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steph08
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Post by steph08 on Jun 1, 2021 11:29:51 GMT -5
My husband's Mustang is worth more than he paid for it about 4 years ago. His Nissan Frontier is worth more than it was worth last year as a used vehicle, but even so, he decided he is not willing to part with either. I decided I want a Rav4 Prime. It is not available in my area, so I am willing to wait for it to become available unless one of our other vehicles dies. DS is buying a house. BIL told us to buy the paint, b/c store like Sherwin Williams are running out. He said they have better paint than Home Depot, but he said b/c Home Depot has national contracts they still have paint. We need to stain or deck. I bought the stain a few years ago and we never did it. have no idea if it is any good anymore, but DH said we have lots of paint we bought and never used, so he wants to buy the paint when we are ready to use it. Don't we manufacture Paint in the US anymore? DH was questioning how we run short on microchips. He thinks the shortages are BS. I did not read the article - I needed to subscribe or create an account, and I am resistant to doing that anymore. I am thinking about adding another virtual subscription, but have not decided which one to go for yet. I've been semi-vehicle shopping. One of the salesman told me that there was a huge fire at a plant in Taiwan, which has resulted in the shortage of chips and hence the shortage of cars. Here's an article: www.bbc.com/news/technology-56486242
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jun 1, 2021 11:33:32 GMT -5
"Just in Time" kind of makes sense when parts/components change rapidly.
I would assume a manufacturer wouldn't want to stock pile something that may become obsolete before the parts are all used up.
It's a balancing act between how many will we produce against how many do we think we will sell.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 1, 2021 11:40:32 GMT -5
My husband's Mustang is worth more than he paid for it about 4 years ago. His Nissan Frontier is worth more than it was worth last year as a used vehicle, but even so, he decided he is not willing to part with either. I decided I want a Rav4 Prime. It is not available in my area, so I am willing to wait for it to become available unless one of our other vehicles dies. DS is buying a house. BIL told us to buy the paint, b/c store like Sherwin Williams are running out. He said they have better paint than Home Depot, but he said b/c Home Depot has national contracts they still have paint. We need to stain or deck. I bought the stain a few years ago and we never did it. have no idea if it is any good anymore, but DH said we have lots of paint we bought and never used, so he wants to buy the paint when we are ready to use it. Don't we manufacture Paint in the US anymore? DH was questioning how we run short on microchips. He thinks the shortages are BS. I did not read the article - I needed to subscribe or create an account, and I am resistant to doing that anymore. I am thinking about adding another virtual subscription, but have not decided which one to go for yet. I've been semi-vehicle shopping. One of the salesman told me that there was a huge fire at a plant in Taiwan, which has resulted in the shortage of chips and hence the shortage of cars. Here's an article: www.bbc.com/news/technology-56486242 Is this the type of "semi-vehicle" you are shopping for?
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steph08
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Post by steph08 on Jun 1, 2021 11:42:27 GMT -5
I've been semi-vehicle shopping. One of the salesman told me that there was a huge fire at a plant in Taiwan, which has resulted in the shortage of chips and hence the shortage of cars. Here's an article: www.bbc.com/news/technology-56486242 Is this the type of "semi-vehicle" you are shopping for? haaha sorta-vehicle-shopping-as-in-I-want-one-but-don't-want-to-pay-for-one
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bean29
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Post by bean29 on Jun 1, 2021 12:08:01 GMT -5
Is this the type of "semi-vehicle" you are shopping for? haaha sorta-vehicle-shopping-as-in-I-want-one-but-don't-want-to-pay-for-one Lol, My vehicle needs a repair, it is not running. Has not been running for a good 2 months, and my DH has not even ordered the parts yet. He is ok with me buying a new car, but it is summer, he drives his Mustang as much as possible, and we have an older Explorer that belonged to my FIL in the meantime. So we just decide who is driving what vehicle every day. I just don't want to spend the $$ for a new vehicle unless I get what I want, and even then, I want to need a new vehicle or have some other debt paid down. If we last 10 months, we will be in much better shape. If DH fixes the car I was driving, we probably could last a good 2 years or more. I just hope it doesn't blow up in our faces with the Explorer dying. It currently has a Check engine light on. DH said not to worry, if that happens, we still have the Mustang. (For clarification DH also has a Truck - so we have 3 vehicles in play, one "summer car", one year round truck, and an older vehicle which is working for now, but could become less reliable).
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 1, 2021 12:22:09 GMT -5
And this: Major meat producer JBS USA hit by cyberattackMajor meat producer JBS USA suffered a cyberattack on Sunday.
The attack affected servers supporting its IT systems in North America and Australia, the company said in a news release.
"The company is not aware of any evidence at this time that any customer, supplier or employee data has been compromised or misused as a result of the situation," JBS said. "Resolution of the incident will take time, which may delay certain transactions with customers and suppliers." Doesn't state specifically that it will lead to product to outlet delays but I see where it could.
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bean29
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Post by bean29 on Jun 1, 2021 14:04:30 GMT -5
I was in one of my favorite stores on my lunch hour. I complained to them that everything I wanted was full price, and they did not have a Memorial Day Sale for "all inventory" like other stores. They said that their inventory is so low right now that the employees are not even allowed to buy anything. There was another lady in the store that said she was an Este Lauder rep, and their inventory is very low right now too.
If things don't get better soon, our inflation will be out of control.
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Ryan
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Post by Ryan on Jun 1, 2021 14:59:41 GMT -5
5 years ago all our execs talked about was inventory reduction goals and working capital. Now all we talk about is backorders and our crappy fill rates. We have all the problems this article discusses. How the World Ran Out of Everything nyti.ms/3yVYhSeIn a time of extraordinary upheaval in the global economy, Just In Time is running late. “It’s sort of like supply chain run amok,” said Willy C. Shih, an international trade expert at Harvard Business School. “In a race to get to the lowest cost, I have concentrated my risk. We are at the logical conclusion of all that.” But the breadth and persistence of the shortages reveal the extent to which the Just in Time idea has come to dominate commercial life. This helps explain why Nike and other apparel brands struggle to stock retail outlets with their wares. It’s one of the reasons construction companies are having trouble purchasing paints and sealants. It was a principal contributor to the tragic shortages of personal protective equipment early in the pandemic, which left frontline medical workers without adequate gear. I was so shocked when, at the beginning of the pandemic, they already were saying hospitals were out of PPE. This was like way before anyone really knew anyone that had COVID. WTH?
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jun 1, 2021 15:00:34 GMT -5
Right US moved huge amounts of manufacturing to China and other lower cost countries but the pandemic showed the risks of offshoring . Cheaper is great until it’s not even there- like the lack of PP needed for hospitals during the early days of the pandemic I worry about too much enthusiasm about solar and wind power and states and cities decreasing natural gas use by policies and laws Is the US willing to mine ‘rare’ earth minerals needed or will we be agreeable to be dependent on the Congo and China? Do we know the huge amounts of land (and ocean) needed to house all the solar and wind generators? US decrease in CO2 has been result of using natural gas rather than coal and oil. Are you comfortable decreasing or even banning US use of NG and indirectly inflating Russian and Middle East NG ? Good questions. Turning around the question on land use: Are we willing to dedicate the land needed to house solar and wind generators or will NIMBY win out? Historically, NIMBY always wins out. At least until a crisis is created. Then we’re willing to do the things that we should have done decades earlier. Stuff like building power generation in So. Cal., replacing and upgrading highway bridges, airports, shipping ports, and the like. It’s interesting to note that in his recent book on environmental issues, Bill Gates says that wind and solar electricity alone will not meet the country’s power needs. Gates claims that additional nuclear power will also be needed to avoid power shortages. Are any of us ready to have a nuke plant next door?
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Ryan
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Post by Ryan on Jun 1, 2021 15:03:24 GMT -5
Is it bad thing that manufacturers may have to choose which of their dozens (or hundreds) of simaliar products they should concentrate on producing? (kind of "Swedish Death Cleaning" on an industry level?) I'm biased... I want to buy a new mattress pad. I have a waterproof one that I HATE. I could keep living with it. I just want a cotton-ish mattress pad. There were 15 different options at Target, nearly the same number at Kohls and the same at BB&B. All different "brands" and packaging. And not one of them just a plain old cotton-ish mattress pad. I don't want cooling, or gel filled or waterproof or a "topper" or rayon or foam... Do we as consumers really need 20 different products all in the same price range?? Do we really need that many choices? Maybe manufacturers NOT having so much "raw materials" will be forced to focus on a fewer products. Maybe any back log of completed products will make it to "market" as shelf space opens up. Maybe the product packaging won't need to change every 6 months - so the old style looks new again... I'm not sure what happens to all the "old style packaged" stuff... trash? dumped into other countries? Maybe fewer resources to create disposable "consumables" isn't such a bad thing. When we did an addition at our house, the general contractor told us that his dad had a real hard time when options became plentiful for homeowners. They'd be wanting to move forward with the project and the homeowner could not decide on some miniscule detail that they only cared about because they had to pick one. He said "Back in the 70's and 80's, you had a few choices and that's it!"
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dannylion
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Post by dannylion on Jun 1, 2021 15:07:11 GMT -5
There have been articles about chip shortages curtailing auto production recently. Not sure whether there are any other supply issues affecting auto production, but the local dealerships are very, very low on inventory, so something appears to be seriously amiss in auto production. I was hoping to buy a new car this year, but now I'm thinking I should wait until the 2022 models come out so the selection is better. Yesterday, I drove by the dealership where I've bought my last 2 cars and was surprised to see the lot nearly empty. Checked the local inventory of a couple of other brands I've been considering, and their stock was really low, as well. I expect that once materials and services are more readily available, the competition among the various industries that need them will cause prices to be significantly higher than they might otherwise have been.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Jun 1, 2021 15:09:47 GMT -5
5 years ago all our execs talked about was inventory reduction goals and working capital. Now all we talk about is backorders and our crappy fill rates. We have all the problems this article discusses. How the World Ran Out of Everything nyti.ms/3yVYhSeIn a time of extraordinary upheaval in the global economy, Just In Time is running late. “It’s sort of like supply chain run amok,” said Willy C. Shih, an international trade expert at Harvard Business School. “In a race to get to the lowest cost, I have concentrated my risk. We are at the logical conclusion of all that.” But the breadth and persistence of the shortages reveal the extent to which the Just in Time idea has come to dominate commercial life. This helps explain why Nike and other apparel brands struggle to stock retail outlets with their wares. It’s one of the reasons construction companies are having trouble purchasing paints and sealants. It was a principal contributor to the tragic shortages of personal protective equipment early in the pandemic, which left frontline medical workers without adequate gear. I was so shocked when, at the beginning of the pandemic, they already were saying hospitals were out of PPE. This was like way before anyone really knew anyone that had COVID. WTH? No PPE cause the Chinese were making most of the PPE and already using huge amounts in China Son is surgeon and he said even in November December before Covid started here the hospitals were having problems ordering usual amounts of PPE Now we’re hearing 3 people from the Wuhan institute of virology were admitted to hospitals in November. So Covid was starting in China already and quickly became a problem So China not sending to US
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jun 1, 2021 15:27:21 GMT -5
The "Just in Time" inventory system was coming into vogue around the time I was studying different inventory systems in college. I could already see the potential problems with this system, in spite of the fact that companies would save money in not needing so much warehouse space. It's no big surprise to me that during times of crisis, like a pandemic, that it's coming back to bite us in the butt. During my nearly 30 years in manufacturing, I always thought of the concept of just in time (JIT) as really being not quite in time. I’ve seen JIT implemented in a very literal fashion by many businesses. So that any little glitch in the process shuts down processing systems and causes major problems. Ironically, Toyota, probably the biggest proponent of JIT in the world, does not use JIT in a literal sense. At a Toyota plant I visited several times, JIT translates into having a three day supply of steel on hand at all times. Not a 30 minute supply, a three hour supply, or even a three shift supply.
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Jun 1, 2021 16:01:35 GMT -5
Is it bad thing that manufacturers may have to choose which of their dozens (or hundreds) of simaliar products they should concentrate on producing? (kind of "Swedish Death Cleaning" on an industry level?) I'm biased... I want to buy a new mattress pad. I have a waterproof one that I HATE. I could keep living with it. I just want a cotton-ish mattress pad. There were 15 different options at Target, nearly the same number at Kohls and the same at BB&B. All different "brands" and packaging. And not one of them just a plain old cotton-ish mattress pad. I don't want cooling, or gel filled or waterproof or a "topper" or rayon or foam... Do we as consumers really need 20 different products all in the same price range?? Do we really need that many choices? Maybe manufacturers NOT having so much "raw materials" will be forced to focus on a fewer products. Maybe any back log of completed products will make it to "market" as shelf space opens up. Maybe the product packaging won't need to change every 6 months - so the old style looks new again... I'm not sure what happens to all the "old style packaged" stuff... trash? dumped into other countries? Maybe fewer resources to create disposable "consumables" isn't such a bad thing. Not cheap but you can always try places like Vermont Country Store. www.vermontcountrystore.com/cotton-mattress-pad/product/82839
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Jun 1, 2021 16:03:50 GMT -5
And this: Major meat producer JBS USA hit by cyberattackMajor meat producer JBS USA suffered a cyberattack on Sunday.
The attack affected servers supporting its IT systems in North America and Australia, the company said in a news release.
"The company is not aware of any evidence at this time that any customer, supplier or employee data has been compromised or misused as a result of the situation," JBS said. "Resolution of the incident will take time, which may delay certain transactions with customers and suppliers." Doesn't state specifically that it will lead to product to outlet delays but I see where it could. I saw that. I wish it would have said what kind of meat would be affected.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Jun 1, 2021 18:16:51 GMT -5
Anyone remember the thread where Phil was telling is we need to practice JIT inventory for our personal households because stocking up required too much cash that could be better used for investing?
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Mardi Gras Audrey
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Post by Mardi Gras Audrey on Jun 1, 2021 18:44:16 GMT -5
Anyone remember the thread where Phil was telling is we need to practice JIT inventory for our personal households because stocking up required too much cash that could be better used for investing? Well, you could have used all the Benjamins u made in the market to wipe with during the toilet paper shortage...😉
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Jun 1, 2021 18:46:38 GMT -5
And this: Major meat producer JBS USA hit by cyberattackMajor meat producer JBS USA suffered a cyberattack on Sunday.
The attack affected servers supporting its IT systems in North America and Australia, the company said in a news release.
"The company is not aware of any evidence at this time that any customer, supplier or employee data has been compromised or misused as a result of the situation," JBS said. "Resolution of the incident will take time, which may delay certain transactions with customers and suppliers." Doesn't state specifically that it will lead to product to outlet delays but I see where it could. I saw that. I wish it would have said what kind of meat would be affected. Turns out probably beef although Pilgrim's Pride shutdown as a caution. www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/beef-shortages-are-probably-on-the-way-thanks-to-latest-hack/ar-AAKBRqb?ocid=msedgntp
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nidena
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Post by nidena on Jun 1, 2021 19:10:16 GMT -5
Is it bad thing that manufacturers may have to choose which of their dozens (or hundreds) of simaliar products they should concentrate on producing? (kind of "Swedish Death Cleaning" on an industry level?) I'm biased... I want to buy a new mattress pad. I have a waterproof one that I HATE. I could keep living with it. I just want a cotton-ish mattress pad. There were 15 different options at Target, nearly the same number at Kohls and the same at BB&B. All different "brands" and packaging. And not one of them just a plain old cotton-ish mattress pad. I don't want cooling, or gel filled or waterproof or a "topper" or rayon or foam... Do we as consumers really need 20 different products all in the same price range?? Do we really need that many choices? Maybe manufacturers NOT having so much "raw materials" will be forced to focus on a fewer products. Maybe any back log of completed products will make it to "market" as shelf space opens up. Maybe the product packaging won't need to change every 6 months - so the old style looks new again... I'm not sure what happens to all the "old style packaged" stuff... trash? dumped into other countries? Maybe fewer resources to create disposable "consumables" isn't such a bad thing. This made me think of the laundry aisle at any grocery store and I did an online search for "Tide products". Their options: tide.com/en-us/shop Only 59 to choose from.
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