Blonde Granny
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Post by Blonde Granny on Jan 12, 2016 11:01:25 GMT -5
I think the first thing on your list might be to actually sit down with your DH and DO a monthly spending plan. You seem to be all over the map with your thinking and you have a long list of items that fall into the "maybe & might" category. Then add in the "we don't know" and you will likely have some mistakes to correct in the future....I know we have and I'm working on a correction right now.
You need a plan, and actual black and white plan and you can't do that until you know what you have and what you need. It's best not to try to run the train before you have the train tracks installed. It's also best (IMHO) is to set your spending amount before you go chasing your income. You can quickly reach a point of trying to find the income that is enough to fund your out of control spending.
In simple words, you can't get where you're going until you build the safety you want along with the conservative investments, and you need to decide where you want to go. It's far easier to cut back on discretionary spending than finding some discretionary income (if there is such a thing)
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Jan 12, 2016 13:13:27 GMT -5
@patstab, if you're investing to build a portfolio then do it in a vacuum. If you're doing it so you'll have an income source, then Blonde Granny is right: budget first, know SSA income next, plan investments according to income needed If I read your post correctly: you don't even know what you need! Happy Planning for your next stage (DH retirement)
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Jan 29, 2016 11:43:25 GMT -5
After a very long frustrating morning yesterday, I closed one account and opening another one. (Short version : old account couldn't revert to CUTMA beneficiaries) Thinking outloud: 65% SCHB 35% CXA / USATX mix Auto reinvest all cap gains / dividends / interest. This is hopefully long decades long investing and I don't like the alternatives in a singular ETF or MF. Tried their Intelligent Investor account but it wasn't very intelligent. Thoughts on allocation, bimetalaupt / The Virginian / ModE98? Although I may seem scattered, I'm not. ♤ brokerage 1 - all dividend stock & options trading ♡ brokerage 2 - GKs inheritance hence this split ◇ IRA - LT index investing ♧ Roth - LT index investing
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ModE98
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Post by ModE98 on Jan 29, 2016 13:07:56 GMT -5
Ombud, I pass to Bruce on the "balanced portfolio" since he's the guru on that stuff. I am much more wild & wooly to balance anything.
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Feb 2, 2016 13:28:43 GMT -5
LOL, Mod, if you can't have some fun at your age, What's the use in it anyway?
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Feb 17, 2016 10:13:47 GMT -5
Did I get greedy? Open GTC orders: ♤ BAC 9.91 ♡ F 9.91 ◇ JPM 55 ♧ SCHB 1000sh @ 39 #s set based on thought that DOW goes to 14,400
Also: tired of my really long tax returns so thinking of flipping my investments to: Trading in Roth Long Term in Brokerage
Pitfalls?
As to bonds, still in: MWTRX USATX CXA
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Feb 23, 2016 11:53:06 GMT -5
Open GTC orders: ♤ ROTH: SCHD 200 sh @ 32.50 ♡ Brokerage 1: SCHB 1000 sh @ 39.50 ◇ Brokerage 2: CXA 500 sh @ 24.35 #s set based on DOW retesting August lows b4 4/24/16. Reevaluate in 1 month
Limiting spec play account (options) to 40k. Time to get a little more conservative
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Mar 3, 2016 17:25:02 GMT -5
FWIW: (GUESS I'M HIJACKING THIS THREAD BUT OH WELL) Several months ago I posted about Schwab's Intelligent Investor automated program. Tried it. Disturbed by several factors, I bailed in it February 1st when I was down 10%. Now up 7+%. They had it in 18 ETFs. It's now only in 3: SCHB - 66% CXA - 30% VOO (will sell once it hits 185.51) - 27 shares They traded at least 15× a month, in that this 1 account is a legacy account only, there's no conceivable reason to trade the indexes.
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Mar 10, 2016 18:52:42 GMT -5
3/4 sold 27 VOO @183.37 = 4942 (got impatient) Today limit met so 380 BAC @ 13, a little negative in the trade out but had cash to cover 4942 - 8.97 = 4933.03 4940 + 8.97 = 4948.97
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Mar 18, 2016 9:38:31 GMT -5
To point #1: it depends. How's that for ambivalence?
Here's my view point: it is possible to achieve diversification with 2 ETFs. IF they are index ETFs. Not 'sexy' enough to keep you in the game but good enough to keep you diversified. - broad based index stock ETF (VOO, SPY, SCHB) with low gross expense ratios (under 0.10%, lowest I've found is 0.03%) - bond ETF or mutual fund more tailored to specific need (tax free GO munis) The issue then becomes your ratio. Personally I use 110 - AGE = AMT IN STOCK ETF as we live longer and anticipate being active in retirement.
JMHO I'm a trader / investor like the rest of you. FWIW I hold 70% core in 3 accounts split between 4 ETFs. 30% in a trading account
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Mar 18, 2016 10:41:49 GMT -5
To point #1: it depends. How's that for ambivalence? Here's my view point: it is possible to achieve diversification with 2 ETFs. IF they are index ETFs. Not 'sexy' enough to keep you in the game but good enough to keep you diversified. - broad based index stock ETF (VOO, SPY, SCHB) with low gross expense ratios (under 0.10%, lowest I've found is 0.03%) - bond ETF or mutual fund more tailored to specific need (tax free GO munis) The issue then becomes your ratio. Personally I use 110 - AGE = AMT IN STOCK ETF as we live longer and anticipate being active in retirement. JMHO I'm a trader / investor like the rest of you. FWIW I hold 70% core in 3 accounts split between 4 ETFs. 30% in a trading account EXPERT 50/50 USES T-BONDS ONLY DUE TO COST.; ETF ARE NOT C OST EFFECTIVE. Just a thought, BImetalAuPt
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Mar 18, 2016 14:05:22 GMT -5
bimetalaupt, bonds are new 2 me. Stumbling thru. Picked up 3 ETFs (CXA, USATX, PWZ then sold CXA) that make $$ but it's on my learning agenda. Please give more input Can you name 1 or 2 bonds that would maintain diversity without complicating portfolio. Along the lines of KISS?
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Apr 20, 2016 22:01:02 GMT -5
Trying to wrap my head around what bimetalaupt stated. So to start to understand, ETFs: ♤ Cheaper than mutual funds but still have an expense ratio which can range from 0.04% - an average of 0.43% ♡ Baskets invest in both the best, average, and worst in the particular index and therefore will naturally underperform index 'stars' ◇ Keep me invested at a lower beta ♧ Are better in my core than trading portfolio Conversely, investing in stocks enables me to pick specific ones based on: ♤ Lower PEG ratios, typically < 1.5 ♡ Dividends > 2% ◇ Average daily volume > 200k so I can get out if necessary ♧ 200 day average crossed over 50 day average
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 21, 2016 0:50:27 GMT -5
First, yes. I agree with YHO that debt is a killer in retirement. In fact, debt is essentially a plague because it allows people to bite off more than they could/should chew. Coal for instance. There is still billions in revenue, but companies are going bankrupt because they leveraged themselves to the hilt. In fact, this is a problem in the corporate world right now in general... www.marketwatch.com/story/worst-corporate-debt-levels-since-great-recession-may-hamstring-fed-2016-04-12Trying to wrap my head around what bimetalaupt stated. So to start to understand, ETFs: ♤ Cheaper than mutual funds but still have an expense ratio which can range from 0.04% - an average of 0.43% ♡ Baskets invest in both the best, average, and worst in the particular index and therefore will naturally underperform index 'stars' ◇ Keep me invested at a lower beta ♧ Are better in my core than trading portfolio Conversely, investing in stocks enables me to pick specific ones based on: ♤ Lower PEG ratios, typically < 1.5 ♡ Dividends > 2% ◇ Average daily volume > 200k so I can get out if necessary ♧ 200 day average crossed over 50 day average From what I can see above, was speaking more towards the cost of ETFs in his 50/50 trading system. Essentially, the points that are taken off for management aren't as efficient as T-bonds when trading. When I was talking with him on Monday night we were talking about how his family in Europe was saying things are scary over there. How with everything that is going on, he is backing off and working on a cash flow retirement plan. It's based on a small amount of good quality companies that are going to make their money in the domestic market. Spectra Energy was one he mentioned (have to ask him again what the other two were). This of course put a big smile on my face because I believe he needs to take it easy.(His son and I are working on a business plan. ) His main point was that he has more money in stocks now with the fewest he has ever owned.(quality over quantity) My biggest point to him was that with corporate debt where it is, and how the Eastern Hemisphere is huck, beware the falling dividend. Of course the next day this is printed.. www.marketwatch.com/story/why-dividend-growth-over-next-decade-may-be-slowest-since-1940s-2016-04-19So, FWIW I think you are on the right path with eliminating costs right now, OB. It's just a matter of finding your comfort zone with risk.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 21, 2016 20:43:23 GMT -5
Honestly, OB I haven't been watching the prices of bonds that closely over the last few months. Are we talking a bond ETF? The Swings in yeild have been crazy since the start of the year! Technically has been retired for the last 7-8 years... But still working on business plans, etc.. We'll see what happens - as the guy has energy like it's going out of style - but from the sounds of it, it's going to be nothing but the trading system and cash flow from dividends from here on out. Heard from him briefly today. Apparently he will be moving into a one bedroom place - not sure if it's the same care home - early next week.(Needed room for the piano!) So, hopefully he will have a computer and all that set up and going by the end of next week.
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Apr 21, 2016 21:15:39 GMT -5
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 21, 2016 22:51:50 GMT -5
Same here, OB. Haven't had much time to read, hope that Mr. Mod is okay!
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Apr 28, 2016 21:46:48 GMT -5
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 29, 2016 0:15:34 GMT -5
I can ask him for some reading for sure. I haven't heard from him since Sunday. Tried email and phone, so I hope everything is okay. Here is some stuff that I found that is good reading.. -http://finance.zacks.com/guide-hedging-treasury-bond-futures-5786.html-http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/domestic-equities.asp-http://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/09/inflation-linked-bonds.aspThe idea is that the income from bond cupons is consistent after issue. The value of the Bond may change per rates, but there will never be a "dividend" cut on a bond, and when the bond matures you get you original investment back. Before rates where this low, the idea of 4-6% return backed by the UST was enticing. More so during the higher rate heydays of the 80s. Imagine like 15% from bond payments! Bruce alwyas talks about his Grandfather making money during the depression because bonds didn't go broke, or as he says, "bonds are the house you live in." Now, as part of the 50/50 system it's a bit different. The idea there is that as the market goes up, bonds become cheaper(which means they pay more interest). As the flight to safety kicks into high gear and people pile into bonds, the price goes up(interest go down). It's at this point that selling the bonds you bought during the run up on the secondary market nets a nice profit, which you of course turn around and buy cheap stocks with. Now, bonds aren't without risk. UST have been solid for years because the US government has always been able to pay bills. If you look at Greece, Brazil, and quite a few other countries over the years what you see is a default and reorganization of debt. This can lead to steep losses on bonds. The other thing is what you have been noticing lately. Again, haven't been watching prices that closely, but I do know that liquidity has become an issue in the debt market. Also, since companies have become the biggest buyers of their own stocks, while redemptions have been going up from retail/institutions, it would stand to reason that money is going into the Bond market at the same time stocks are going up. IE, bonds are getting expensive at the same time stocks are. Just my thoughts. Hope that helps, OB. I'll see what Bruce has to say about it, or hopefully he will be able to log on in the next few days himself. But I will try my best to answer any questions you may have. Stay .
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on May 7, 2016 20:09:30 GMT -5
Finally remembered to ask Bruce about some books when I was talking with him last night. Didn't have a specific suggestion for trading bonds, however, he said the Standard and Poor series has lots of great books to read on investing in general.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on May 10, 2016 23:21:44 GMT -5
I can ask him for some reading for sure. I haven't heard from him since Sunday. Tried email and phone, so I hope everything is okay. Here is some stuff that I found that is good reading.. -http://finance.zacks.com/guide-hedging-treasury-bond-futures-5786.html-http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/domestic-equities.asp-http://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/09/inflation-linked-bonds.aspThe idea is that the income from bond cupons is consistent after issue. The value of the Bond may change per rates, but there will never be a "dividend" cut on a bond, and when the bond matures you get you original investment back. Before rates where this low, the idea of 4-6% return backed by the UST was enticing. More so during the higher rate heydays of the 80s. Imagine like 15% from bond payments! Bruce alwyas talks about his Grandfather making money during the depression because bonds didn't go broke, or as he says, "bonds are the house you live in." Now, as part of the 50/50 system it's a bit different. The idea there is that as the market goes up, bonds become cheaper(which means they pay more interest). As the flight to safety kicks into high gear and people pile into bonds, the price goes up(interest go down). It's at this point that selling the bonds you bought during the run up on the secondary market nets a nice profit, which you of course turn around and buy cheap stocks with. Now, bonds aren't without risk. UST have been solid for years because the US government has always been able to pay bills. If you look at Greece, Brazil, and quite a few other countries over the years what you see is a default and reorganization of debt. This can lead to steep losses on bonds. The other thing is what you have been noticing lately. Again, haven't been watching prices that closely, but I do know that liquidity has become an issue in the debt market. Also, since companies have become the biggest buyers of their own stocks, while redemptions have been going up from retail/institutions, it would stand to reason that money is going into the Bond market at the same time stocks are going up. IE, bonds are getting expensive at the same time stocks are. Just my thoughts. Hope that helps, OB. I'll see what Bruce has to say about it, or hopefully he will be able to log on in the next few days himself. But I will try my best to answer any questions you may have. Stay . The00To look this up try efficient frontier. Y
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973beachbum
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Post by 973beachbum on May 11, 2016 5:43:03 GMT -5
I can ask him for some reading for sure. I haven't heard from him since Sunday. Tried email and phone, so I hope everything is okay. Here is some stuff that I found that is good reading.. -http://finance.zacks.com/guide-hedging-treasury-bond-futures-5786.html-http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/domestic-equities.asp-http://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/09/inflation-linked-bonds.aspThe idea is that the income from bond cupons is consistent after issue. The value of the Bond may change per rates, but there will never be a "dividend" cut on a bond, and when the bond matures you get you original investment back. Before rates where this low, the idea of 4-6% return backed by the UST was enticing. More so during the higher rate heydays of the 80s. Imagine like 15% from bond payments! Bruce alwyas talks about his Grandfather making money during the depression because bonds didn't go broke, or as he says, "bonds are the house you live in." Now, as part of the 50/50 system it's a bit different. The idea there is that as the market goes up, bonds become cheaper(which means they pay more interest). As the flight to safety kicks into high gear and people pile into bonds, the price goes up(interest go down). It's at this point that selling the bonds you bought during the run up on the secondary market nets a nice profit, which you of course turn around and buy cheap stocks with. Now, bonds aren't without risk. UST have been solid for years because the US government has always been able to pay bills. If you look at Greece, Brazil, and quite a few other countries over the years what you see is a default and reorganization of debt. This can lead to steep losses on bonds. The other thing is what you have been noticing lately. Again, haven't been watching prices that closely, but I do know that liquidity has become an issue in the debt market. Also, since companies have become the biggest buyers of their own stocks, while redemptions have been going up from retail/institutions, it would stand to reason that money is going into the Bond market at the same time stocks are going up. IE, bonds are getting expensive at the same time stocks are. Just my thoughts. Hope that helps, OB. I'll see what Bruce has to say about it, or hopefully he will be able to log on in the next few days himself. But I will try my best to answer any questions you may have. Stay . The00To look this up try efficient frontier. Y Bruce! How are you doing It is so nice to see you back!
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on May 15, 2016 21:52:03 GMT -5
The00To look this up try efficient frontier. Y Bruce! How are you doing It is so nice to see you back! 973, *I'm doing better every day! thanks for your support. Bonds have been great this year!!Selling out to buy Small caps And value... now for the ranch we are planting 'Necked Ladies" so the deer do not eat all the plants, Just a thought, Bruce
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 28, 2016 14:37:00 GMT -5
Why hold cash to return zero? Bonds have some yield but current cost is too high. the new system is 50% low beta stocks, 30% T-Bonds 20% options to protect down side risk Bonds are the House you live in Bruce
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Jul 28, 2016 17:38:31 GMT -5
bimetalaupt, I hold cash for emergency purposes. Like when GS3 cut off his finger last year and we wanted the best pediatric hand surgeon .... or when DS came down with osteoblastoma and needed multiple specialists .... or DD's car blew up day 1 of a 'real' job. I think what I'm saying is that sometimes the Bank of Mom needs dollars. Otherwise I tend to be in stocks and since talking with you a little bit of bonds. Currently: 75% ETFs, individual stocks 15% bonds 10% cash Minimal options (naked puts, not sure how to figure %)
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 28, 2016 20:53:55 GMT -5
Why hold cash to return zero? Bonds have some yield but current cost is too high. the new system is 50% low beta stocks, 30% T-Bonds 20% options to protect down side risk Bonds are the House you live in Bruce Kash for deals!!!! AMD bet paid off handsomely.. Time to start the system. Coal is the house we live in.
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Jul 29, 2016 1:02:18 GMT -5
Nothing like a little cash in your pockets when the Markets are overbought. LOL
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 29, 2016 1:40:31 GMT -5
Nothing like a little cash in your pockets when the Markets are overbought. LOL Damn rights! Dry powder is needed when you want to pull the trigger and get a reaction.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 3, 2016 15:31:52 GMT -5
Nothing like a little cash in your pockets when the Markets are overbought. LOL This is the first time with T-bonds and DJIA were both overpriced. I think the bond market is correct by the facts we may be in for a recession esp. if the Federal Reserve keeps removing $$$$$$. Fr the last 15 years bond have worked better then stocks. M3 is now18237.43 vs 18,355.00 DJIA and Ten Year T-Notes 1.54% vs negative for Germany and Japan. 1.5% increase in GDP is also not good. With German saving rate all time high and investment all time low; this could get real bad; real soon!
Just my thoughts,
Bruce
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Aug 3, 2016 15:50:07 GMT -5
There are some thoughts that the Governments way of measuring GDP is Outdated given our changes to our economy over the past years and the "real" GDP is actually more like 3%. Way above my head - but does deserve some thought and discussion.
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