bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 25, 2012 20:20:01 GMT -5
Looks like bonds again were the power horse for May!!.. Return to the high Beta to rebalance.. Takes golden balls to play this game!! Buy what every one else is selling!! Estimated return.. Ultra High Beta are the royal (Purple) bet of the month!!  Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt  EQUITY RETURN 10 Y 7.993057091964401728034772531828% 10 y note 1.661000000000000031974423109205% erp 6.332057091964402140149559272686% beta 1 erp 8.590739066526989375915945856832% market beta 1 10.251739066526988963801159115974% beta 1.18= high beta 11.798072098501846127760472882073% beta 1.3 = very high 12.828960786485088974018253793474% ultra 16.179349022430610460787647753023%s&p 500 cost 11.457926625227896622050138830673% projected 14.489775115777913327974601997994% WXYZ, We have been watching the return on equity drop from the high in April of 7.99999% return to 6.40% today.. I also hear on CNBC today that under the current economic reality investors who are using equities to retire should reduce there expectations for returns. It does look like the Expert system 50/50 back-propergation and Monte Carlo systems are ahead of the game.. What to do???Also Bonds yield less then inflation!! Inflation target is @5 and the ten year looks more and more like a target of 1% by 2015... Suck it up and cut expense as well as invest more to reach your goals??? Dividends are your best friend in a bear market!! Stock at 6.406860817113019024304776394274% will the the only thing left to beat inflation and get you a little return over the next 50-100 years.Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt Today's numbers...7/25/2012 EQUITY RETURN 10 Y........................6.406860817113019024304776394274%10 y note................................................1.410000001000000002804313226079%erp..........................................................4.996860816113018799455858243164% beta 1 erp.............................................6.693912060347499526358205912402% market beta 1........................................8.103912061347500639385543763638% beta 1.18= high beta...........................9.308816232210050500839315645862%
beta 1.3 = very high ..........................10.112085679451750408475163567346%
ultra ......................................................12.856589624194223020481331332121%FB Cost for ISV....................................18.854550441017241979579921462573%projected .............................................11.348320176452524776777863735333% |
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clarkrl2
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Post by clarkrl2 on Jul 25, 2012 23:59:12 GMT -5
I might add it's pretty gutsy to make your projections out to a nonillionth of a per cent.  |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 26, 2012 0:28:56 GMT -5
I might add it's pretty gutsy to make your projections out to a nonillionth of a per cent. Clarkrl2, Thank-yo for the reply, These are for my record and I just cut and past from the math Model... 30 places are all significant for math model esp with the Monte Carlo simulation that are run about a billion times for the end of month record on a 8 core Super Iron HP super computer in the cloud. Yes these are real number from a real math model.. Only thing I do is check in Input with Cranbach alpha. It was interesting to note the problems with LIBOR were first discovered by the old Big-iron using an older system.. We were using it for Bank stock shorting etc and keep getting bad Cronbach Alpha... Flow5 and I had many long exchanges on the problem of bad information. BTW: IA 64 has an 82 bit correcting math Coprocessor. Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 30, 2012 18:54:11 GMT -5
Over the last 12 years the 20/80 Bar Bell system has done better then the 50/50.. less risk but you can not replace the may 15, 2018 T-Bonds at 9.125% interest...On of my professors suggested that bonds would do better then stocks over the next 10 years.. ( projected in 1999).
Same number except this is in the Bar Bell 30 years vs 10 year ...
EQUITY RETURN 10 Y 6.201327296275774614287001895718%
30 year T-bond 2.580000000000000071054273576010%
erp 3.621327296275774099143518469646%
beta 1 erp 4.820579231503216099952169315657%
market beta 1 7.400579231503215282828023191541%
beta 1.18= high beta 8.268283493173795406505632854532%
beta 1.3 = very high 8.846753000954182155624039296526%
ultra 10.823190485870497923315269872546%
FB Cost for ISV 16.276317782146271895271638641134%
projected 8.954720978090113803204985742923%
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 30, 2012 19:55:15 GMT -5
Over the last 12 years the 20/80 Bar Bell system has done better then the 50/50.. less risk but you can not replace the may 15, 2018 T-Bonds at 9.125% interest...On of my professors suggested that bonds would do better then stocks over the next 10 years.. ( projected in 1999). Same number except this is in the Bar Bell 30 years vs 10 year ... EQUITY RETURN 10 Y 6.201327296275774614287001895718% 30 year T-bond 2.580000000000000071054273576010% erp 3.621327296275774099143518469646% beta 1 erp 4.820579231503216099952169315657% market beta 1 7.400579231503215282828023191541% beta 1.18= high beta 8.268283493173795406505632854532% beta 1.3 = very high 8.846753000954182155624039296526% ultra 10.823190485870497923315269872546% FB Cost for ISV 16.276317782146271895271638641134% projected 8.954720978090113803204985742923% Now with 30 year stock return est..... EQUITY RETURN 30year ...................10.994147755281826306372749968432%
30 year T-bond...........................................2.580000000000000071054273576010%
erp................................................................8.414147755281826235318476392422%beta 1 erp................................................11.200607567734783387436436896678%
market beta 1..........................................13.780607567734781682133871072438%beta 1.18= high beta.............................15.796716929927043793213670141995%
beta 1.3 = very high ..............................17.140789838055216165457750321366%ultra ..........................................................21.733038940826475027279229834676% FB Cost for ISV........................................31.978986696108300691321346675977%
projected .................................................19.098966032698307060400111367926% |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 25, 2012 1:21:09 GMT -5
This is exciting M3 is up 3.2%.. Thant makes the change in the change up 0.1% or dynamic change of0.032258065. ....
What does this mean in 12 to 18 month .. the Phase delay of M3.. Little...Same numbers we have now or about 2% growth in GDP iwth 1.2% inflation.. Got of the market but how far can the MULTIPLY EXPANSION GO!!!
RISK FORT BLACK SWANS ARE NOT ABOUT
DJIA TARGET 14524.478713658
WITH A CERTAINTY OF 31.635163%
LEAVING BLACK SWAN FACTOR OF 68.3648371469%
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2012 3:44:21 GMT -5
Actually Bruce not to be a smart ass - but if you consider the factors as a whole (see My Recent posts in my thread) and then what a True Counter party Reversal (counter parties being Bonds and Equities) would prompt given the lack of any Justification or supportive reason to move the Liquidity overburdened in the Bond Market to the Retail Banking Market....
Then The Consideration is that the Liquidity would go into the Equity Markets initially, and Better still it would seek to Go into Dividend Paying Stocks --
The Problem there is that the "Good", "Solid" Dividend paying Equities are very crowded, whihc would prompt a move into the Less crowded, but less solid (IE: Lower priced, MUCH HIGHER YIELDS) Dividend Paying Equities...
This Could (and probably would) create a stong Momentum rotation, which would draw down prices on the "Good" Solid" Equities (Think PEP, IBM, CL, PPG, etc.)...
In that light the probability looks more likely to be DJIA 14,750 - 15,125 within the next 24 months - followed by a pull back to a range of DJIA 12,750 - 13,000 - before a "normalization" bringing the DJIA back into the High 13,500 - 13,750 range and then finding footing for a a cycle of forward movement..
Just a Counter thought
D.I.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 25, 2012 3:59:27 GMT -5
Actually Bruce not to be a smart ass - but if you consider the factors as a whole (see My Recent posts in my thread) and then what a True Counter party Reversal (counter parties being Bonds and Equities) would prompt given the lack of any Justification or supportive reason to move the Liquidity overburdened in the Bond Market to the Retail Banking Market.... Then The Consideration is that the Liquidity would go into the Equity Markets initially, and Better still it would seek to Go into Dividend Paying Stocks -- The Problem there is that the "Good", "Solid" Dividend paying Equities are very crowded, whihc would prompt a move into the Less crowded, but less solid (IE: Lower priced, MUCH HIGHER YIELDS) Dividend Paying Equities... This Could (and probably would) create a stong Momentum rotation, which would draw down prices on the "Good" Solid" Equities (Think PEP, IBM, CL, PPG, etc.)... In that light the probability looks more likely to be DJIA 14,750 - 15,125 within the next 24 months - followed by a pull back to a range of DJIA 12,750 - 13,000 - before a "normalization" bringing the DJIA back into the High 13,500 - 13,750 range and then finding footing for a a cycle of forward movement.. Just a Counter thought D.I. D.I., K4U FIRST OF ALL, I AM IN THE DIVIDEND STOCKS AND HAVE BEEN FOR SOME 40 YEARS.. GREAT CALL..CRAMMER ALSO IS TALKING ABOUT DIVIDENDS..USE THE SYSTEM TO DISCOUNT CASH FLOW... Add JNJ and DUK.. playing with the houses money..Now.. S&P 500  or Dow Jones Total market.. Both look costly!!!THIS IS FROM MMXIV BETA NOT EXPERT 50/50.. IT IS ALL ABOUT 100% OF THE EQUITY STUDY.. ADD THIS TO EXPERT 50/50 OR BARBELL 80/20.. GREAT CALL.. HOW IS YOUR BOOKS GOING.. BiMetalAuPt PS: Smart Ass kills for A sweet Potato slice ....  |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 25, 2012 4:08:54 GMT -5
Actually Bruce not to be a smart ass - but if you consider the factors as a whole (see My Recent posts in my thread) and then what a True Counter party Reversal (counter parties being Bonds and Equities) would prompt given the lack of any Justification or supportive reason to move the Liquidity overburdened in the Bond Market to the Retail Banking Market.... Then The Consideration is that the Liquidity would go into the Equity Markets initially, and Better still it would seek to Go into Dividend Paying Stocks -- The Problem there is that the "Good", "Solid" Dividend paying Equities are very crowded, whihc would prompt a move into the Less crowded, but less solid (IE: Lower priced, MUCH HIGHER YIELDS) Dividend Paying Equities... This Could (and probably would) create a stong Momentum rotation, which would draw down prices on the "Good" Solid" Equities (Think PEP, IBM, CL, PPG, etc.)... In that light the probability looks more likely to be DJIA 14,750 - 15,125 within the next 24 months - followed by a pull back to a range of DJIA 12,750 - 13,000 - before a "normalization" bringing the DJIA back into the High 13,500 - 13,750 range and then finding footing for a a cycle of forward movement.. Just a Counter thought D.I. D.I., I have been thinking about what you wrote.. Think about this..Many Retirement fund own bonds back by the USA that support banks owned by Farmers.. Like The Central Banking firm Texas Farm Credit Bank.. A real AAA rated bank...They only sell bonds!! so this is not part of M3!! They have money to lend farmers in six states via local farm credit banks... Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt... |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 25, 2012 5:21:53 GMT -5
Actually Bruce not to be a smart ass - but if you consider the factors as a whole (see My Recent posts in my thread) and then what a True Counter party Reversal (counter parties being Bonds and Equities) would prompt given the lack of any Justification or supportive reason to move the Liquidity overburdened in the Bond Market to the Retail Banking Market.... Then The Consideration is that the Liquidity would go into the Equity Markets initially, and Better still it would seek to Go into Dividend Paying Stocks -- The Problem there is that the "Good", "Solid" Dividend paying Equities are very crowded, whihc would prompt a move into the Less crowded, but less solid (IE: Lower priced, MUCH HIGHER YIELDS) Dividend Paying Equities... This Could (and probably would) create a stong Momentum rotation, which would draw down prices on the "Good" Solid" Equities (Think PEP, IBM, CL, PPG, etc.)... In that light the probability looks more likely to be DJIA 14,750 - 15,125 within the next 24 months - followed by a pull back to a range of DJIA 12,750 - 13,000 - before a "normalization" bringing the DJIA back into the High 13,500 - 13,750 range and then finding footing for a a cycle of forward movement.. Just a Counter thought D.I. D.I., One more Counter thought,Small caps are overpriced but DJUA has a small amount of head room..Under the Central tendency.. Also the EU yield is above the USA.... Yes the DJIA has a large risk and discount Cut and Past from MMXIV Beta Agent..............CT...............CP...........Discount to CT.............SD djua...............522.46.......472.500...........10.5745615385%......23.0469335255% russell 2m.....808.62.......809.19.............-0.0706638677%.......18.0332209518% |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2012 13:07:15 GMT -5
To your first, ok this may be true - yet if a Counter party revesal happens, then Bonds (any Bonds) would become hated (as they were during the last Bear Market in bonds), thus while there would still be some around there would not be as many and the Yields would be way up and prices would be way down.
To the Second, I didn't say that a Momentum Cyle would be to small caps - I posed the thought that in that situation it would be to High Yielding, low priced stocks. Whihc would be things that might trade for $5 to $30 per share but have yields that range from 7% and up.. (IE: the things that SHOULD scare folks).
This would be the result of the "Wisdom", "Rule" and years of the PROs claiming it is the "Only Right thing to do" - which of course refers to this gem that folks fall on a sword for ---
"The Proper way to seek yield and thus the best companies for returns is to set up a stock screen with a Minimum of 5% and leave the top end open - then seek to find the highest yields, at the lowest price. That is how you find growth potential and Value"
Which Is well BS. truth is that many if not most of the things you find that sport yields of 8%+ with prices < $30 have many warning signs clearly evident Like Way high P/E's , BETA's that don't jive with how they move, troubling information in the 5 year history, non stable dividends, heavy short interest, Etc..
But in the Vacuum of no Interest on Saving Accounts and the "Good Stuff" (things like JNJ,ED, PG, CLX, LLY, MMM, ETC) being so crowded ... Those High Yielding, shakey, money pits will be where the money will flow...
Now specifically to the Bond/Debt Markets they are in fact flashing the signs out there for all to see that trouble is not too far off -- Just consider this,, A lot of Items are currently being called WAY ahead of when they would actually mature...
Why ? It is cheap enoguh to do right now AND it removes a potentially crippling financial blow from the equation for the companies smart enough to do so now...
Which means they see the Storm Coming, which should tell everyone else something...
Based on the Past Repetitive pattern and history, the DJIA actually has 1,800 to 2,200 points in space to move forward, which then would solidify the New base in the 13,000 - 13,500 Range..
That there was a point you didn't argue or counter - which to me says a lot. A Whole Hell of a lot.. It indicates to me that the "Hard" Models you use, actually and fairly closely support and indicate the view we hold based on Statistical Probability, Past History and wheighted consideration fo what folks "might" do..
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Aug 25, 2012 14:49:29 GMT -5
This is exciting M3 is up 3.2%.. Thant makes the change in the change up 0.1% or dynamic change of0.032258065. .... What does this mean in 12 to 18 month .. the Phase delay of M3.. Little...Same numbers we have now or about 2% growth in GDP iwth 1.2% inflation.. Got of the market but how far can the MULTIPLY EXPANSION GO!!!
RISK FORT BLACK SWANS ARE NOT ABOUTDJIA TARGET 14524.478713658WITH A CERTAINTY OF 31.635163%LEAVING BLACK SWAN FACTOR OF 68.3648371469%Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt The swoosh continues..  |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 25, 2012 20:41:13 GMT -5
A+++, Well the bottom of the financial crises has been put in...BISIII is ,making the banks more solid with Tier1 capital of 12.5%... Bank capital is growing at 8% and total Deposits as stated with M3 increasing at 3.2%... Long term solid and to the point Small firms are the only one dependent on Banks for capital and liquid asset.. Long term they are still less of a user of loans then in 2007!!! phase delay as amplified by them to the point they no longer depend on the banks and no longer are creating jobs...No growth so the Russell 2000 is flat with the RISK of a huge recession in Q1 2013!!! Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt... PS: Check out the charts on Now and the future or Super Fed Watch nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 25, 2012 21:38:03 GMT -5
More on Tier1 to 12.5% from the current 10% Tier1 capital per BIS!! on BISIII...
MANILA, Philippines - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) have proposed to back up the banking and insurance industries in dealing with the present and future financial shocks worldwide.
The BIS serves central banks in their pursuit of monetary and financial stability, and to foster international cooperation in those areas. It is often referred to as the central bank of all central banks.
The IAIS, on the other hand, is a global standard-setting body for the insurance industry whose objectives are to promote effective and globally consistent regulation and supervision of the industry in order to develop and maintain fair, safe and stable insurance markets for the benefit and protection of policyholders; and to contribute to global financial stability.
Both are headquartered at Basel in Switzerland.
The BIS issued early this year a survey-proposal for new conditions under the so-called Basel III framework. It is presently reviewing the feedback on its proposals from different central banks as well as individual banks. It is expected to make final recommendations for central bank governors and heads of supervision end July or early August this year.
It is one of the many proposal-consultations it had made in laying down the risk-weighted capital framework for all banks in anticipation of future shocks in the global financial system.
In fact, it has triggered global discussion on capital levels that will form Basel III, including proposals’ implications and what risk managers will need to brace for.
In the Philippines, bankers are estimating that after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has absorbed its implications, the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio (CAR) would shift from the present 10 percent to at least 12.5 percent.
Foreign and domestic bankers said that changes being proposed would increase the amount of capital required to support any given level of banking assets, to increase the percentage of equity capital within that capital, and to increase the level of required holdings of liquid assets relative to banking assets.
The present CAR level suggested by the BIS is eight percent.
Meanwhile, the IAIS released the 2012 draft of the Common Framework for the Supervision of Internationally Active Insurance Groups, or ComFrame, marking the completion of the second step in its three-year development phase.
The international body urged supervisors, insurers and other interested parties to submit their comments or suggests before the end of August this year.
ComFrame is an integrated, multilateral and multidisciplinary framework for the group-wide supervision of internationally active insurance groups, or IAIGs.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Viva La Revolucion!
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Aug 25, 2012 23:05:53 GMT -5
A+++, Well the bottom of the financial crises has been put in...BISIII is ,making the banks more solid with Tier1 capital of 12.5%... Bank capital is growing at 8% and total Deposits as stated with M3 increasing at 3.2%... Long term solid and to the point Small firms are the only one dependent on Banks for capital and liquid asset.. Long term they are still less of a user of loans then in 2007!!! phase delay as amplified by them to the point they no longer depend on the banks and no longer are creating jobs...No growth so the Russell 2000 is flat with the RISK of a huge recession in Q1 2013!!! Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt... PS: Check out the charts on Now and the future or Super Fed Watch nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html Bruce,  Sounds like the new gold standard to me! Just watch the black swans in 2013....  Later, |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 26, 2012 2:03:52 GMT -5
A Brief History of the Basel Committee. The central bank governors of the Group of Ten countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and Sweden) meet from time to time. They signed the Smithsonian Agreement (Dec. 1971, the time of Richard Nixon) replacing the world's fixed exchange rate (IE a dollar is worth a fixed amount of gold) with a floating exchange rate. The effect of the agreement was the abolition of the US dollar's convertibility into gold making the dollar effectively a fiat currency (IE not backed by gold.... of no fixed value). The US went off the gold standard. Again in 1974 the bankers met in Switzerland on the Rhine and established the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision; a committee of banking authorities to provide '...a forum for regular cooperation on banking supervisory matters'. Perhaps by coincidence but perhaps not, 1974 was the year in which the national debts of both the United States and Canada began to soar. It was the moment in history when, for some reason, both nations stopped printing money when they needed it and instead began to borrow it from the private banks. I've found no explanation for the identical policy change happening in both nations at the same time. A quick scan of the chart below, especially noting the 30 years before the mid seventies meetings in Switzerland and 30 years after shows the result of the change in practice. The Canada chart is about the same. The power of the Bank for International Settlements (sometimes called the bankers bank) to make or break economies was demonstrated in 1988, when it issued a Basel Accord raising bank capital requirements from 6% to 8%... Japan (was) the world’s largest creditor; but Japan’s banks were less well capitalized than other major international banks. Raising the capital requirement forced them to cut back on lending, creating a recession in Japan like that suffered in the U.S. today. Property prices fell and loans went into default as the security for them shriveled up. A downward spiral followed, ending with the total bankruptcy of the banks. The banks had to be nationalized, although that word was not used in order to avoid criticism. Among other collateral damage produced by the Basel Accords was a spate of suicides among Indian farmers unable to get loans. The BIS capital adequacy standards required loans to private borrowers to be“risk-weighted,” with the degree of risk determined by private rating agencies; and farmers and small business owners could not afford the agencies’ fees. Banks therefore assigned 100 percent risk to the loans, and then resisted extending credit to these “high-risk” borrowers because more capital was required to cover the loans. When the conscience of the nation was aroused by the Indian suicides, the government ... established a policy of ending the “financial exclusion” of the weak; but this step had little real effect on lending practices, due largely to the strictures imposed by the BIS... Similar complaints have come from Korea. An article in the December 12, 2008 Korea Times titled “BIS Calls Trigger Vicious Cycle”described how Korean entrepreneurs with good collateral cannot get operational loans from Korean banks, at a time when the economic downturn requires increased investment and easier credit... “Chang Ha-joon, an economics professor at Cambridge University, concurs with the analyst. ‘What banks do for their own interests, or to improve the BIS ratio, is against the interests of the whole society. This is a bad idea,’ Chang said in a recent telephone interview with Korea Times.” Quote from an April 2009 article by Ellen Brown, The Tower of Basel www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=32295 |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 26, 2012 2:15:38 GMT -5
To your first, ok this may be true - yet if a Counter party revesal happens, then Bonds (any Bonds) would become hated (as they were during the last Bear Market in bonds), thus while there would still be some around there would not be as many and the Yields would be way up and prices would be way down. To the Second, I didn't say that a Momentum Cyle would be to small caps - I posed the thought that in that situation it would be to High Yielding, low priced stocks. Whihc would be things that might trade for $5 to $30 per share but have yields that range from 7% and up.. (IE: the things that SHOULD scare folks). This would be the result of the "Wisdom", "Rule" and years of the PROs claiming it is the "Only Right thing to do" - which of course refers to this gem that folks fall on a sword for --- "The Proper way to seek yield and thus the best companies for returns is to set up a stock screen with a Minimum of 5% and leave the top end open - then seek to find the highest yields, at the lowest price. That is how you find growth potential and Value" Which Is well BS. truth is that many if not most of the things you find that sport yields of 8%+ with prices < $30 have many warning signs clearly evident Like Way high P/E's , BETA's that don't jive with how they move, troubling information in the 5 year history, non stable dividends, heavy short interest, Etc.. But in the Vacuum of no Interest on Saving Accounts and the "Good Stuff" (things like JNJ,ED, PG, CLX, LLY, MMM, ETC) being so crowded ... Those High Yielding, shakey, money pits will be where the money will flow... Now specifically to the Bond/Debt Markets they are in fact flashing the signs out there for all to see that trouble is not too far off -- Just consider this,, A lot of Items are currently being called WAY ahead of when they would actually mature... Why ? It is cheap enoguh to do right now AND it removes a potentially crippling financial blow from the equation for the companies smart enough to do so now... Which means they see the Storm Coming, which should tell everyone else something... Based on the Past Repetitive pattern and history, the DJIA actually has 1,800 to 2,200 points in space to move forward, which then would solidify the New base in the 13,000 - 13,500 Range.. That there was a point you didn't argue or counter - which to me says a lot. A Whole Hell of a lot.. It indicates to me that the "Hard" Models you use, actually and fairly closely support and indicate the view we hold based on Statistical Probability, Past History and wheighted consideration fo what folks "might" do..  D.I. YES!!! Thank-you The DJIA has a huge amount of Head Room..If the ECB can get their hands around the Problem of Debt..Just a thought, BiMetelAuPt  |
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Post by jarhead1976 on Aug 26, 2012 6:10:56 GMT -5
Actually Bruce not to be a smart ass - but if you consider the factors as a whole (see My Recent posts in my thread) and then what a True Counter party Reversal (counter parties being Bonds and Equities) would prompt given the lack of any Justification or supportive reason to move the Liquidity overburdened in the Bond Market to the Retail Banking Market.... Then The Consideration is that the Liquidity would go into the Equity Markets initially, and Better still it would seek to Go into Dividend Paying Stocks -- The Problem there is that the "Good", "Solid" Dividend paying Equities are very crowded, whihc would prompt a move into the Less crowded, but less solid (IE: Lower priced, MUCH HIGHER YIELDS) Dividend Paying Equities... This Could (and probably would) create a stong Momentum rotation, which would draw down prices on the "Good" Solid" Equities (Think PEP, IBM, CL, PPG, etc.)... In that light the probability looks more likely to be DJIA 14,750 - 15,125 within the next 24 months - followed by a pull back to a range of DJIA 12,750 - 13,000 - before a "normalization" bringing the DJIA back into the High 13,500 - 13,750 range and then finding footing for a a cycle of forward movement.. Just a Counter thought D.I. D.I., I have been thinking about what you wrote.. Think about this..Many Retirement fund own bonds back by the USA that support banks owned by Farmers.. Like The Central Banking firm Texas Farm Credit Bank.. A real AAA rated bank...They only sell bonds!! so this is not part of M3!! They have money to lend farmers in six states via local farm credit banks... Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt... Bimetal , what affect from will Buffett's exit from bonds have on these banks? Even if they were muni bonds what is the difference. Thanks Could you help me out, I know they work inversely to treasury notes ? Thanks |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Aug 26, 2012 7:11:00 GMT -5
D.I., I have been thinking about what you wrote.. Think about this..Many Retirement fund own bonds back by the USA that support banks owned by Farmers.. Like The Central Banking firm Texas Farm Credit Bank.. A real AAA rated bank...They only sell bonds!! so this is not part of M3!! They have money to lend farmers in six states via local farm credit banks... Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt... Bimetal , what affect from will Buffett's exit from bonds have on these banks? Even if they were muni bonds what is the difference. Thanks Could you help me out, I know they work inversely to treasury notes ? Thanks Jar Head, I think Bill Gross has the vast majority of the bonds.. He did exit T-Bond early thinking the bull run was over. Ford and other have increased the holdings of T-Bonds to cover the defined retirement plans.. My thoughts.. 50/50 will be less of a ride and less Pepcid!! Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt PS: Also many muni bonds are owned by the local banks to show support .. this also counts as community reinvestment for the FED. |
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Sept 23, 2012 12:52:41 GMT -5
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Sept 30, 2012 3:46:21 GMT -5
Ty, Did you note that the first thing FB did was to buy growth with all that cash..Small caps over the next ten years should be the place to go.. All the "Experts " are pushing dividends so most of the high dividends stocks like DUK and SE are overpriced per DCF model. The Exception could be APPL and GOOG?And example could have BMY bought several Biotech for growth as did PFE..Both are using cash to buy growth.....About as bullish as I have seen for growth esp from the under value EU.. They are now minting money about as fast a BB... M3 growth of 2.5% !!! Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 6, 2013 19:03:46 GMT -5
Ty, Did you note that the first thing FB did was to buy growth with all that cash..Small caps over the next ten years should be the place to go.. All the "Experts " are pushing dividends so most of the high dividends stocks like DUK and SE are overpriced per DCF model. The Exception could be APPL and GOOG?And example could have BMY bought several Biotech for growth as did PFE..Both are using cash to buy growth.....About as bullish as I have seen for growth esp from the under value EU.. They are now minting money about as fast a BB... M3 growth of 2.5% !!! Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt FB now has income and growth.. Should produce about a 15% return for investors over the next 7 years.\ Using a PE of 20 and Growth of 25%= new DCF of about $34.. or about a $6 loss for the IPO. Just a thought, BiMetalAuPt Stocks are hot but bonds are not.. Inflation will increase to about 3% and GDP growth of about 3.5% for the next 7 years!!!Total Return .........5.4046%
10Y T-Note............1.91000%
ERP........................3.49461%
erp average..........9.62626%
market.................11.53626.........ok less projected return then June 2012 |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 3:25:31 GMT -5
Bruce - A thought you might want to reconsider the Estimate for Inflation and the GDP Growth.
Our models estimate The Potential Inflation Higher and the GDP lower.
Then Again our Models factor Data that is Generally ignored in large part, by most folks.
Specifically our Models Factor in The ISM <V> Job Creation <V> Unemployment Numbers <V> CPI <V> CPY ... And then Cross factor Policy Leeway and Response <V> Effectiveness VIA the FED.
Currently that Model Does not show the Last to have any room or Effectiveness - Especially in the Face of the Interesting Analysis that the First part of the Model Indicates, Given & and Due to the Inverted Skew of the Bond Markets in Response to Investor Mis Allocation, which is due to Investor Fear and Apathy in Regards to Equities - As Well as the Erroneous Faith Place in the Actions of the FED with Regards to Bonds and Bond Purchases.
Facing the Stark Reality that the FED just does not have the Capital Resources to Punt Rates in an Immediate and Steep Fashion - is very Hard to do - but yet when one does it paints a very sobering picture..
The FED is relying on Capital Liquidity from the Reversal Of it's Bond Purchases to allow the Leeway to be able to Provide the Liquidity that the Capital Markets Will need in the Face of A Steep Rate increase ---
However, if the Bond Bubble Comes down Hard as it did in the mid to late 40's - then the FED will be stuck like chuck, in in a BAD way...
Our Models say Potential inflation of as much as 7 to 13% over the Next 10 years, while GDP Hovers around 2.8 to 3 %. In the mean while, Cost of Living is estimated to climb by approximately 2.5 to 4% per annum over the same period..
Not a Pretty picture at all, but yet one in which there will be plenty of opportunity to Seek and Find ALPHA while others run for cover..
(((WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO AMEND THE NEXT THOUGHT AT A LATER POINT, PENDING FURTHER INFORMATION)))))
We actually think that the Bull Market in Equities over the last 4 years is but the Tip Of a Multi Decade Super Bull for Equities, we further think that if this is the case that it will also mean a Multi Decade Super Bear in Bonds.
Yet we think folks will be very slow to Recognize it..
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Jan 7, 2013 8:48:34 GMT -5
Was the past few years really a "Bull Market" or just a "bounce back" market recovering from the massive drop? I would tend to think the later, which means we could be poised for a real Bull Market. ( If - Congress ever gets its act together) |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 7, 2013 20:58:24 GMT -5
Bruce - A thought you might want to reconsider the Estimate for Inflation and the GDP Growth. Our models estimate The Potential Inflation Higher and the GDP lower. Then Again our Models factor Data that is Generally ignored in large part, by most folks. Specifically our Models Factor in The ISM <V> Job Creation <V> Unemployment Numbers <V> CPI <V> CPY ... And then Cross factor Policy Leeway and Response <V> Effectiveness VIA the FED. Currently that Model Does not show the Last to have any room or Effectiveness - Especially in the Face of the Interesting Analysis that the First part of the Model Indicates, Given & and Due to the Inverted Skew of the Bond Markets in Response to Investor Mis Allocation, which is due to Investor Fear and Apathy in Regards to Equities - As Well as the Erroneous Faith Place in the Actions of the FED with Regards to Bonds and Bond Purchases. Facing the Stark Reality that the FED just does not have the Capital Resources to Punt Rates in an Immediate and Steep Fashion - is very Hard to do - but yet when one does it paints a very sobering picture.. The FED is relying on Capital Liquidity from the Reversal Of it's Bond Purchases to allow the Leeway to be able to Provide the Liquidity that the Capital Markets Will need in the Face of A Steep Rate increase --- However, if the Bond Bubble Comes down Hard as it did in the mid to late 40's - then the FED will be stuck like chuck, in in a BAD way... Our Models say Potential inflation of as much as 7 to 13% over the Next 10 years, while GDP Hovers around 2.8 to 3 %. In the mean while, Cost of Living is estimated to climb by approximately 2.5 to 4% per annum over the same period..
Not a Pretty picture at all, but yet one in which there will be plenty of opportunity to Seek and Find ALPHA while others run for cover.. (((WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO AMEND THE NEXT THOUGHT AT A LATER POINT, PENDING FURTHER INFORMATION))))) We actually think that the Bull Market in Equities over the last 4 years is but the Tip Of a Multi Decade Super Bull for Equities, we further think that if this is the case that it will also mean a Multi Decade Super Bear in Bonds.
Yet we think folks will be very slow to Recognize it.. DI, I think we are on the same page.. MMXZV is 100% Backpropergation and has a target date of 18 months.. Running.. Ten years is out of the bounds for the MMXV but your data looks good to me.. Time to sell bonds is what I got out of both statements. The other problem Flow5 and I have posted on for the last five years..government data is not be trusted. I had a long talk with my son over the holidays about crypt data and "Central Banksters".. none that passed the Cronbach's Alpha test.. Great Post We have added to our Picasso collection... Just a thought, Bruce |
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Jan 8, 2013 1:26:59 GMT -5
DI, I also agree with your post along with Bruce. Both saying the same thing to a certain degree, just different ways to get to the same answer. The Cogs of thought, lets just hope there isn't a Monkey dropping a wrench onto them this coming year. I haven't owned any Bonds for several years now and don't see any future in them in the coming years either. Stay thirsty my Friends.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2013 13:30:15 GMT -5
The Period Between MARCH 9th 2009 & OCTOBER 15th 2009 was a "bounce back".
There was too Much "spring" due to the way things had progressed.The End of that Period saw a short pause.
Late November 2009 saw the return of climbing numbers in Equities.
From that point to now, we have had several periods in which the Market has backed off.
However those periods have a Unique twist to them.
They Have been too long to be Called a Simple Pullback or Correction ---BUT--- They have been to Short to be Confirmed Officially as a BEAR.
The Depth of these pullbacks has also been Unique in that they have typically been between 8 to 12%, with a couple having been a touch more.
What we would call a Typical Correction is between 5 1/2 to 10%, and Lasting 3 to 9 Weeks.
What we have seen are "Corrections" that have been 8 to 15 Weeks. A Couple have been Longer.
This Puts them in the Range of having lasted for 1 Quarter and Part of the Next, with No one "Correction" having Met the Test for a Call of a Bear Market. (2 Solid Quarters).
The Fact that the "Corrections" have been at roughly the same times Each year for the Last 4 Years, Notes them as CYCLICAL.
The Fact that the Typically have followed the same Time Frames, Notes them As TRUNCATED.
The Depth that they have Typically been to Could Classify them as BEAR (Or BEARISH Weighted).
Therefore a Realistic assessment would be that we have had Several Periods which are in Reality:
TRUNCATED CYCLICAL MINI BEAR MARKETS; With in A Larger Cycle.
In that Light it would be a Fair Assessment that We have been in a STEALTH BULL MARKET.
Yet in order for one to see this, One would have to Realize and Understand that the:
MECHANICS OF THE MARKETS (The Nuts and Bolts)
Both Dictate that the Market will seek a point of Level, A Fair Valuation.
And that in doing so it will always Revert to that last Fair Valuation it had, as a Base for further Forward Movement.
This can Be Tracked many times over in the Historical Record, and can be seen clearly as a Standing Pattern.
We think (and Bruce may Concur) that the real reason that folks haven't really seen this, is that this is by numbers a Repeat of the 1980-1981 Start up Of the Multi Decade BULL in Bonds --- IN EXACT REVERSE and in the COUNTER PARTY...(Equities)
Back then the Folks Buying Bonds were knocked as Being out of their Tree... Several Years Later they were praised and folks wondered how they did it...
They Found ALPHA - in as Pure a form as you can.
We Think the COUNTER PARTY to Bonds (Equities) is seeing the same thing Start to wind up now.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jan 11, 2013 3:11:55 GMT -5
DI  Yes, The alpha is with stocks and Calls!!! I call it bet on black.. It is hard to get OUT of the Bond 50% but inflation is set to increase with the increase in M3. We have about a 98% Correlation of M3 and core inflation.. Great Post, Bruce From President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard poses during an interview at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 8, 2011. REUTERS/Peter Newcomb MADISON, Wis./KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters) - Two top Federal Reserve policymakers expressed discomfort on Thursday with the U.S. central bank's easy monetary policy, in comments suggesting Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may face more dissent this year. In remarks that stamped her as a hawk on the Fed's policy-setting committee, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George warned that the Fed's near-zero interest-rate policy - aimed at boosting the economy - could spark inflation. " A prolonged period of zero interest rates may substantially increase the risks of future financial imbalances and hamper attainment of the 2 percent inflation goal in the future," she said in her most extensive remarks in a year on policy."Monetary policy, by contributing to financial imbalances and instability, can just as easily aggravate unemployment as heal it," she said in a speech in Kansas City. That stance is hardly representative of other influential officials at the central bank, including Bernanke and the vice chair, Janet Yellen. Their view was more closely captured by comments from Narayana Kocherlakota, who noted inflation was forecast to remain below the central bank's 2 percent target for the foreseeable future, even by the Fed's own estimates. "This forecast suggests that, if anything, monetary policy is currently too tight, not too easy," he said in remarks in Minneapolis. finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-hawks-worry-threat-inflation-042246913.htmlFrom Now and the Future... Finally and to put M3 into proper perspective with inflation (as measured by CPPI), the M3 and M2 strong inflation link is virtually unquestionable. The longer term inflation picture is clear, although M2 shows a pause and likely temporary disinflation as of 2008. Certain bloggers are incorrect and have continually avoided these facts and the linked chart. www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Jun 28, 2013 14:23:38 GMT -5
Euro just went positive for the year.....however the TRowe (Iam not a fan)is negative 12%!!!and still has a -2.21% for the last five years....I cant hold a fund that has been negative 2 1/4's let alone 5 years!!!! FTI,  It is my understanding from study of Expert 50/50..sell your winners and buy your losers?? I MOVED CASH FROM SMALL CAPS IN MAY TO AGGRESSIVE ALLOCATION (GuideStone Funds Agrsv Allocation I GS2 (GGBYX)) TO RE-BALANCE MY RUN AND PLAY ACCOUNT..VERY HIGH RISK 100%RISK SIDE..AVERAGE BETA 1.19...WHAT DID I MISS??GOAL TO REDUCE COST TO LESS THEN ONE PERCENT FOR THIS RETIREMENT ACCOUNT...RUN AND GUN!!ADD THIS TO MY SS AND ZERO COUPONS BOND AND EUROPEAN GROWTH FUND....EXTRA INCOME FROM OIL AND GAS + ART GROWTH ......  Just a thought, Bruce |
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Oct 7, 2013 13:04:44 GMT -5
dividends for cat of nine A+++ Alpha 3.28549% percentage of earnings for cat of nine... 56.02507124769523727536580% safe cat of nine .................................5.86432394312607296882334% 10Y T-Note........................................2.61000000000000031974423% ERP..................................................3.25432394312607220498990% erp average market earning risk ......... 5.51427140782863034473849% market return..................................... 8.12427140782862977630430% Target ERP for buy set at 6.0000%... get your buy list ready...we are 90% there!! all numbers direct fro Expert 50/50 fresh from 10:12 AM 9-30-2013 CAPM BASED average beta.................. 0.59016390424778 FOR CAT OF NINE Time to expand beta..take on more risk... erp average market earning risk ......... 5.51427140782863034473849% market return..................................... 8.12427140782862977630430% Example of higher ERP...C with beta of 2.33 would be.........12.85% or Guide Stone Small cap with Beta 1.20m would be.............6.62  Well..If so!!!!! limit HIGH risk to about 10%....M3 IS NOW UP 8.7% Y/Y 16576.19 BILLION DOLLARS..THE STOCK MARKET WILL VERY LIKELY ROCK IN Q1 2014!!!!  Just a thought, BiMETALAuPt |
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or Dow Jones Total market.. Both look costly!!!
