Deleted
Joined: Mar 28, 2024 16:13:32 GMT -5
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Sept 23, 2020 9:41:55 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2020 9:41:55 GMT -5
I guess he is voting for Biden. Trump is obviously the groping con man, as he so proudly said.😀 You do guess a lot.
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Deleted
Joined: Mar 28, 2024 16:13:32 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2020 9:45:01 GMT -5
As of today, Biden still leads in the poll average by 7 points.
(Courtesy of Bill's link)
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billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
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Sept 23, 2020 18:13:37 GMT -5
Post by billisonboard on Sept 23, 2020 18:13:37 GMT -5
Nice little primer on margin of error and confidence interval: Of course, each of these polls come with a sampling margin of error. Both polls had reported margins of error of a little less than +/- 5 points. That margin of error, though, applies to each of the candidates, not the margin between them. For the ABC News/Washington Post poll, this means that 95% of the time (i.e. the 95% confidence interval), Trump's true percentage is somewhere between about 46% and 56%.
A quick rule of thumb is you need to double the reported margin of error to understand what the 95% confidence interval is for the spread between the candidates.
In the case of the Monmouth poll, Biden's 5-point lead could realistically be a deficit of around 4 points or a lead in the double-digits. Likewise, the ABC News/Washington Post poll could realistically be a lead for Trump in the double digits or a Biden advantage of around 4 points.
link
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djAdvocate
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only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
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Sept 24, 2020 20:18:03 GMT -5
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2020 20:18:03 GMT -5
yes. and this gets into probability.
the odds of it falling outside that range are approximately the same odds as flipping tails four times in a row.
try it.
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billisonboard
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Sept 24, 2020 20:27:26 GMT -5
Post by billisonboard on Sept 24, 2020 20:27:26 GMT -5
yes. and this gets into probability. the odds of it falling outside that range are approximately the same odds as flipping tails four times in a row. try it. Try what?
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