tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jul 31, 2020 15:48:45 GMT -5
Using Oregon's numbers the chance of fraud is roughly 1.1 per million votes. Keeping that ratio in the 2016 election would mean that there were about 123 fraudulent votes nationwide. Not sure how Trump could possibly figure that cost him the popular vote, since historically most fraud comes from the right. Those votes would have broken for him more than against.
As I would guess most people know, the only thing Trump and the Republicans REALLY have against mail-in voting is that it increases voter turnout. Higher turnout is bad for Republicans, probably always. When more people vote, Republicans tend to lose. Half of their strategy is to keep turnout down. Don't let it happen.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jul 31, 2020 15:51:47 GMT -5
what happened to in person voter fraud and "sanctity of the vote"? If I remember correctly dt had a committee/task force looking into that to prove that HRC only won the popular vote because of voter fraud. While very little voter fraud was discovered, most of the cases involved the MAGA crowd trying to tolt the scales by voting twice. The whole thing was very quietly ended. Vote Kobach in the Kansas primary! Help flip the Senate!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2020 15:57:09 GMT -5
Using Oregon's numbers the chance of fraud is roughly 1.1 per million votes. Keeping that ratio in the 2016 election would mean that there were about 123 fraudulent votes nationwide. Not sure how Trump could possibly figure that cost him the popular vote, since historically most fraud comes from the right. Those votes would have broken for him more than against. As I would guess most people know, the only thing Trump and the Republicans REALLY have against mail-in voting is that it increases voter turnout. Higher turnout is bad for Republicans, probably always. When more people vote, Republicans tend to lose. Half of their strategy is to keep turnout down. Don't let it happen. the rule of thumb is that the higher the turnout, the lower the chances for the GOP.
that is because their voters are more reliable. that means that the lower the turnout, the higher the proportion of Republican voters. and the opposite is true. the less reliable voters vote less frequently, and therefore if turnout is high, it favors Democrats.
NOTE: the core analysis shows that it is not as large an effect as I just made it seem, but it is noticeable enough to get Trump on twitter.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 31, 2020 15:57:51 GMT -5
Interesting 'What If' article (not that this will happen): Postpone the Election? That Could Mean President BidenOne thing is perfectly clear about President Trump’s intensifying calls to postpone the November elections: He doesn’t have the constitutional authority to make it happen. One thing is less clear, but just as important: Why would Trump even suggest putting off the vote? Unless he plans to occupy the White House illegally, a postponed election wouldn’t keep him in office. In fact, it could well usher in an unelected President Joe Biden. That sounds strange, but it’s where the rules would take us if there were no election—if those rules were followed, which is a significant “if.” Here’s how it would work. In the absence of an election by January, Trump’s time as President will end on January 20, 2021. Article II of the Constitution provides that a President is elected to serve a four-year term, and Trump’s four years will be up on that date. Without a new electoral mandate, he’s out. Who, then, steps into the Oval Office if no election has been held? Not Vice-President Mike Pence; his term also expires on January 20. So the presidency and vice-presidency would both be vacant. Now things get weird. By statute, the person next in line for the Presidency is the Speaker of the House. But in a world with no election, the Speakership would be just as vacant as the Vice Presidency. Just like Trump’s term will end on January 20, the current term of every member of the House of Representatives will end on January 3. The House of Representatives would have no members, and couldn’t elect a Speaker. Rest of article here: Postpone the Election? That Could Mean President Biden
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2020 16:03:33 GMT -5
that is a really cool analysis, Tenn.
let me ask you something. could Trump resign, and then have Pence nominate him as VP, and then Pence resign if he won? because I could see Pence winning. doubtful, but a stronger chance than Trump.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on Jul 31, 2020 16:14:05 GMT -5
Why would Pence resign to let Trump take over?
Seriously, he may play the sycophant well, but he isn't exactly devoid of ambition or followers.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 31, 2020 16:18:50 GMT -5
that is a really cool analysis, Tenn. let me ask you something. could Trump resign, and then have Pence nominate him as VP, and then Pence resign if he won? because I could see Pence winning. doubtful, but a stronger chance than Trump. It's possible, DJ. But if you think the country is in chaos now, you ain't seen nothing yet if that were ever to occur.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 31, 2020 17:24:17 GMT -5
Interesting 'What If' article (not that this will happen): Postpone the Election? That Could Mean President BidenOne thing is perfectly clear about President Trump’s intensifying calls to postpone the November elections: He doesn’t have the constitutional authority to make it happen. One thing is less clear, but just as important: Why would Trump even suggest putting off the vote? Unless he plans to occupy the White House illegally, a postponed election wouldn’t keep him in office. In fact, it could well usher in an unelected President Joe Biden. That sounds strange, but it’s where the rules would take us if there were no election—if those rules were followed, which is a significant “if.” Here’s how it would work. In the absence of an election by January, Trump’s time as President will end on January 20, 2021. Article II of the Constitution provides that a President is elected to serve a four-year term, and Trump’s four years will be up on that date. Without a new electoral mandate, he’s out. Who, then, steps into the Oval Office if no election has been held? Not Vice-President Mike Pence; his term also expires on January 20. So the presidency and vice-presidency would both be vacant. Now things get weird. By statute, the person next in line for the Presidency is the Speaker of the House. But in a world with no election, the Speakership would be just as vacant as the Vice Presidency. Just like Trump’s term will end on January 20, the current term of every member of the House of Representatives will end on January 3. The House of Representatives would have no members, and couldn’t elect a Speaker. Rest of article here: Postpone the Election? That Could Mean President Biden So here is the succession law: ... if, by reason of death, resignation, removal from office, inability, or failure to qualify, there is neither a President nor Vice President to discharge the powers and duties of the office of President, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall, upon his resignation as Speaker and as Representative in Congress, act as President. Presidential Succession Act 1947 Very technical question: Is the no election reason covered? "Removal from office"? "Failure to qualify"?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 31, 2020 17:36:50 GMT -5
that is a really cool analysis, Tenn. let me ask you something. could Trump resign, and then have Pence nominate him as VP, and then Pence resign if he won? because I could see Pence winning. doubtful, but a stronger chance than Trump. Trump would not have to resign his current term. What would have to happen is him refusing the GOP nomination and recommending Pence. I think the convention would nominate Pence especially if he said he would name Trump as his running mate but there is no guarantee he would get the nomination. But I can't imagine the person who would refuse to vote for Trump/Pence but would vote for a Pence/Trump ticket, particularly after listening to Trump as the Vice Presidential candidate during the run up to the election.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2020 18:46:09 GMT -5
that is a really cool analysis, Tenn. let me ask you something. could Trump resign, and then have Pence nominate him as VP, and then Pence resign if he won? because I could see Pence winning. doubtful, but a stronger chance than Trump. It's possible, DJ. But if you think the country is in chaos now, you ain't seen nothing yet if that were ever to occur. i think the electorate would smell it from a mile off.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2020 18:47:48 GMT -5
Interesting 'What If' article (not that this will happen): Postpone the Election? That Could Mean President BidenOne thing is perfectly clear about President Trump’s intensifying calls to postpone the November elections: He doesn’t have the constitutional authority to make it happen. One thing is less clear, but just as important: Why would Trump even suggest putting off the vote? Unless he plans to occupy the White House illegally, a postponed election wouldn’t keep him in office. In fact, it could well usher in an unelected President Joe Biden. That sounds strange, but it’s where the rules would take us if there were no election—if those rules were followed, which is a significant “if.” Here’s how it would work. In the absence of an election by January, Trump’s time as President will end on January 20, 2021. Article II of the Constitution provides that a President is elected to serve a four-year term, and Trump’s four years will be up on that date. Without a new electoral mandate, he’s out. Who, then, steps into the Oval Office if no election has been held? Not Vice-President Mike Pence; his term also expires on January 20. So the presidency and vice-presidency would both be vacant. Now things get weird. By statute, the person next in line for the Presidency is the Speaker of the House. But in a world with no election, the Speakership would be just as vacant as the Vice Presidency. Just like Trump’s term will end on January 20, the current term of every member of the House of Representatives will end on January 3. The House of Representatives would have no members, and couldn’t elect a Speaker. Rest of article here: Postpone the Election? That Could Mean President Biden So here is the succession law: ... if, by reason of death, resignation, removal from office, inability, or failure to qualify, there is neither a President nor Vice President to discharge the powers and duties of the office of President, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall, upon his resignation as Speaker and as Representative in Congress, act as President. Presidential Succession Act 1947 Very technical question: Is the no election reason covered? "Removal from office"? "Failure to qualify"? a lot of this is really bizarre and rarely triggered. Ford is the only example I can think of.
the further you go "outside the box", the less likely there is law to cover it.
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NancysSummerSip
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Post by NancysSummerSip on Jul 31, 2020 19:33:02 GMT -5
It's John Lewis' funeral where 3 past Presidents are speaking...he is trying to distract from that. He did not deserve to be there. He isn't worth one of John Lewis' eyebrow hairs. His presence would have dirtied the place.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Jul 31, 2020 19:54:43 GMT -5
Business Insider has an article about Kushner s coronavirus team shying away from creating a national strategy to fight the virus because he thought the virus was affecting the blue states the hardest and the governors would be blamed. So they deliberately failed to act, allowing the virus to run rampant and kill way more people, because he thought it would have a positive political outcome? Guess that backfired when southerners, Floridians and Arizona residents found themselves living in hot spots. Did we need anymore proof trump doesn’t give two shits amour Americans? if this is true, they are even stupider than I thought. forget about the inhumanity and cruelty of allowing citizens to die, but did they really thing the virus would stay in the blue areas? not to hijack the thread - but I suspect that back in Jan/Feb/March a "prediction" of how this new virus might run it's course - MIGHT have been based on SARS and MERS and how those viruses are/were contained. Unfortunately, Covid19 is way more (like astronomically more) catchy (contagious) than SARS or MERS - and that people who didn't identify as being "sick" were spreading it... BEFORE they got sick. If Kushner's Think Tank friends were working on the assumption that the virus wasn't that contagious (as in it wasn't until someone was actually sick - that spread was occuring) and that once sick people were ID'd and sequestered or quarantined AND their immediate contacts also sequestered/quarantined the virus could be controlled.... then yeah. I can see how thinking "yeah! awesome! this is only gonna effect Big Cities with International airports up front (and oh hey, those are mostly democratic! what luck!). Once they get a handle on it the spread will stop. Those cities and states can just tough it out - and it looks bad for them politically... win win! " Unfortunately, Covid19 is really contagious and people who don't know they have it can and do spread it. FWIW: I remember that Trump was crowing about how he had stopped travel to and from China and that the virus in America wasn't a problem - while not doing a thing about people coming and going from Europe - specifically Italy - when the world news was saying that thousands of people there were sick and dying of the new virus. I would think that that moment in time would be a blatant example of Trump's ineptitude and failure - if one was needed.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 2, 2020 15:54:30 GMT -5
Thank goodness-I was worried. U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers sayWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House and Donald Trump's campaign on Sunday sought to shut down the Republican president's musings on delaying the 2020 vote, saying there will be an election on Nov. 3. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Trump was raising concerns about mail-in ballots when he floated the idea of delaying the U.S. vote. "We're going to hold an election on November 3 and the president is going to win," Meadows said on CBS' "Face the Nation." Presidential campaign adviser Jason Miller echoed the sentiment on "Fox News Sunday," saying, "The election is going to be on November 3rd and President Trump wants the election to be on November 3rd."Complete article here: U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers say
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 2, 2020 16:19:35 GMT -5
Thank goodness-I was worried. U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers sayWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House and Donald Trump's campaign on Sunday sought to shut down the Republican president's musings on delaying the 2020 vote, saying there will be an election on Nov. 3. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Trump was raising concerns about mail-in ballots when he floated the idea of delaying the U.S. vote. "We're going to hold an election on November 3 and the president is going to win," Meadows said on CBS' "Face the Nation." Presidential campaign adviser Jason Miller echoed the sentiment on "Fox News Sunday," saying, "The election is going to be on November 3rd and President Trump wants the election to be on November 3rd."Complete article here: U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers say[br Trump claims he’s worried the vote won’t be known ‘for years’ Because it would be tied up in court- sounds like he’s planning his old trick of throwing a pack of lawyers at a problem and hoping he can drag it out until his adversary gives up and he wins. I don’t think that will work for him this time.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 2, 2020 16:24:13 GMT -5
Thank goodness-I was worried. U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers sayWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House and Donald Trump's campaign on Sunday sought to shut down the Republican president's musings on delaying the 2020 vote, saying there will be an election on Nov. 3. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Trump was raising concerns about mail-in ballots when he floated the idea of delaying the U.S. vote. "We're going to hold an election on November 3 and the president is going to win," Meadows said on CBS' "Face the Nation." Presidential campaign adviser Jason Miller echoed the sentiment on "Fox News Sunday," saying, "The election is going to be on November 3rd and President Trump wants the election to be on November 3rd."Complete article here: U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers say[br Trump claims he’s worried the vote won’t be known ‘for years’ Because it would be tied up in court- sounds like he’s planning his old trick of throwing a pack of lawyers at a problem and hoping he can drag it out until his adversary gives up and he wins. I don’t think that will work for him this time. NY state DAs will be waiting for trump outside the White House gates January 20, 2021.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 2, 2020 17:10:27 GMT -5
Thank goodness-I was worried. U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers sayWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House and Donald Trump's campaign on Sunday sought to shut down the Republican president's musings on delaying the 2020 vote, saying there will be an election on Nov. 3. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Trump was raising concerns about mail-in ballots when he floated the idea of delaying the U.S. vote. "We're going to hold an election on November 3 and the president is going to win," Meadows said on CBS' "Face the Nation." Presidential campaign adviser Jason Miller echoed the sentiment on "Fox News Sunday," saying, "The election is going to be on November 3rd and President Trump wants the election to be on November 3rd."Complete article here: U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers saythe president always wins on election day. that is why we have an election.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Aug 2, 2020 17:47:55 GMT -5
Thank goodness-I was worried. U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers sayWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House and Donald Trump's campaign on Sunday sought to shut down the Republican president's musings on delaying the 2020 vote, saying there will be an election on Nov. 3. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Trump was raising concerns about mail-in ballots when he floated the idea of delaying the U.S. vote. "We're going to hold an election on November 3 and the president is going to win," Meadows said on CBS' "Face the Nation." Presidential campaign adviser Jason Miller echoed the sentiment on "Fox News Sunday," saying, "The election is going to be on November 3rd and President Trump wants the election to be on November 3rd."Complete article here: U.S. election will be Nov. 3 as planned, Trump advisers saythe president always wins on election day. that is why we have an election. Sometimes the President-elect wins. Usually every 8 years, but occasionally one hits it after 4 years.
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