Newest poll from Quinnipiac ..Biden over the Donald by 15%

[dezii]

This was a national Poll taken in July...Seems independents going with Biden as the biggest move.. I grant u still almost four months before the election but so far I like how it seems to be shaping up..can't get complacent though..the man is a incumbent...
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www.courant.com/politics/capitol-watch/hc-pol-quinnipiac-poll-trump-biden-20200715-cfcx5xsxhrcqno6bvlcd3qergy-story.html

[oped]

15 and above is where we need to be... but I confess to wanting to cross myself anytime anyone mentions polls... work like we’re 20 behind... don’t let up until this madness is completely ended. And if we manage to vote them out... be prepared to spend the transition protesting...

[Wisconsin Beth]

Yeah, fivethirtyeight has an article on this too.  Except from their headline, they don't think the 15% is accurate.  I didn't read it so that's all I've got. 

[oped]

Jul 17, 2020 8:21:10 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

Yeah, fivethirtyeight has an article on this too.  Except from their headline, they don't think the 15% is accurate.  I didn't read it so that's all I've got. 

538 weights polls by a specific algorithm and I trust their math more than most.

[dezii]

Jul 17, 2020 8:21:10 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

Yeah, fivethirtyeight has an article on this too.  Except from their headline, they don't think the 15% is accurate.  I didn't read it so that's all I've got. 

Quinnipiac

[ it's a smallish University in Hamden, Connecticut...very, very strong Hockey school...national champs a few years ago...always seem in top 10 or better every year}

has made a very good reputation in the polling business..their niche so to speak...so if I was the Donald and his people, I would be concerned regarding their conclusions...just saying.

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

Polls said Clinton was ahead too.  I don’t put a lot of stock in them.

[dezii]

Jul 17, 2020 11:51:56 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

Polls said Clinton was ahead too.  I don’t put a lot of stock in them.

True but no where as much as these latest...plus it is Biden running and not Hillery...for what ever reason , she did antagonize many though she did win popularity by over 3 million votes...just not in right places...electoral wise..

but as all have been saying, must not get complacent...stay on the attack till that day in November and if Biden can win over whelming, would help stop the Donald calling foul...

Don't expect him to be quiet in defeat and during a new administration...Possible form a new conservative network...give his base a new voice...make FOX look like a liberal media source..

To completely dismiss these polls  is wrong too...and regarding the Clinton / Trump polls...they were not off that much.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 17, 2020 11:51:56 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

Polls said Clinton was ahead too.  I don’t put a lot of stock in them.

you can put stock in whatever you like. Macy's seems cheap.

here are the polls from July 2016:

CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
LA Times 7/20 - 7/26 2150 LV -- 40 47 Trump +7
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1
Gravis 7/21 - 7/22 3462 RV 1.7 49 51 Trump +2
Rasmussen 7/18 - 7/19 1000 LV 3.0 42 43 Trump +1
Reuters 7/16 - 7/20 1232 RV 3.2 40 36 Clinton +4
YouGov 7/15 - 7/17 925 RV 4.5 45 41 Clinton +4
NBC News 7/11 - 7/17 9436 RV 1.4 46 45 Clinton +1
CNN/ORC 7/13 - 7/16 872 RV 3.5 49 42 Clinton +7

you notice anything? 

me too.  two things, actually:

1) there are zero polls which show Clinton up more than 7%

2) there are FIVE that show TRUMP up, including one that shows him up 7%.

I would describe that difference between July 2016 and July 2020 as wildly different.  you can not take stock in that if you wish, but it won't change the facts.

and the facts are that Biden is currently doing 5-10% better than Clinton was at this time in her campaign.  what that means in November?  nothing.  but every day that passes makes this stuff a little more meaningful.

also keep in mind it not just one poll.  THREE polls had Biden ahead in double digits on 7/15, and a fourth had him +9%.  for those that want to say "but it's the states", yes it is.  and Trump is doing terribly in the states, too.  Biden is currently about as competitive in TEXAS as he is in Iowa.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 17, 2020 9:55:25 GMT -5 dezii said:

Jul 17, 2020 8:21:10 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

Yeah, fivethirtyeight has an article on this too.  Except from their headline, they don't think the 15% is accurate.  I didn't read it so that's all I've got. 

Quinnipiac

[ it's a smallish University in Hamden, Connecticut...very, very strong Hockey school...national champs a few years ago...always seem in top 10 or better every year}

has made a very good reputation in the polling business..their niche so to speak...so if I was the Donald and his people, I would be concerned regarding their conclusions...just saying.

Quinnipiac is a highly rated pollster. they might be off by a few %, but I would not suggest for an instant that this is not a very bad INDICATION of where Trump stands.

the Hill/Harris poll had Biden up 4% last week. that one is probably less accurate. if you AVERAGE the high and low polls, you get that Biden is +9.5%, and I think that is about right.

count on the late swing going to Trump again. look at the undecided vote, divide that by 3, and reduce Biden's lead by that amount.

[dezii]

Jul 18, 2020 12:54:08 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 17, 2020 9:55:25 GMT -5 dezii said:

Quinnipiac

[ it's a smallish University in Hamden, Connecticut...very, very strong Hockey school...national champs a few years ago...always seem in top 10 or better every year}

has made a very good reputation in the polling business..their niche so to speak...so if I was the Donald and his people, I would be concerned regarding their conclusions...just saying.

Quinnipiac is a highly rated pollster. they might be off by a few %, but I would not suggest for an instant that this is not a very bad INDICATION of where Trump stands.

the Hill/Harris poll had Biden up 4% last week. that one is probably less accurate. if you AVERAGE the high and low polls, you get that Biden is +9.5%, and I think that is about right.

count on the late swing going to Trump again. look at the undecided vote, divide that by 3, and reduce Biden's lead by that amount.

well thought out dj

[oped]

Clinton did win... the popular vote. Which is what national polls show. One of the reason we need to be up 15%+ (also pool margin error and variability) to even consider winning.

State polls are more important.

But again, regardless, work like your guy is losing badly until he doesn’t.

[djAdvocate]

pardon my frustration with this subject.

I get tired of hearing the same FALSE trope about the polling.

the polling was fine.

the prognosticators were wrong.

but it seems to have sunk into the political consciousness that the polls were wrong. and I think that is a serious problem. we need to believe our data. because it will TELL US WHEN SOMETHING WENT WRONG.

ie: let's say in the next election that exit polls show Biden +10%, but balloting shows that he lost by 2%. if we don't trust the exit polls, then Trump will get away with election fraud. period. we need to believe our data, or we are screwed.

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 19, 2020 17:09:31 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

pardon my frustration with this subject.

I get tired of hearing the same FALSE trope about the polling.

the polling was fine.

the prognosticators were wrong.

but it seems to have sunk into the political consciousness that the polls were wrong. and I think that is a serious problem. we need to believe our data. because it will TELL US WHEN SOMETHING WENT WRONG.

ie: let's say in the next election that exit polls show Biden +10%, but balloting shows that he lost by 2%. if we don't trust the exit polls, then Trump will get away with election fraud. period. we need to believe our data, or we are screwed.

It is a national and widespread problem. People no longer trust data. And all opinions are equal. Sorry, about medical issues, my opinion is more valid than yours, unless you have some sort of specialized knowledge. But we now distrust experts

[countrygirl2]

I fear these "federal brown shirts" they are putting around and sounds like more to come. Will be put at polling places to discourage the votes of the browns and intimidate them so they won't vote. Then there is voter suppression, throwing out many registrations. They are going to have to have triple the people voting to overcome this.

I think we are so screwed. I am really terrified he gets in again.

[Bob Ross]

Jul 18, 2020 12:50:40 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 17, 2020 11:51:56 GMT -5 The Walk of the Penguin Mich said:

Polls said Clinton was ahead too.  I don’t put a lot of stock in them.

you can put stock in whatever you like. Macy's seems cheap.

here are the polls from July 2016:

CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 45 48 Trump +3
LA Times 7/20 - 7/26 2150 LV -- 40 47 Trump +7
CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 43 44 Trump +1
NBC News 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 46 45 Clinton +1
Gravis 7/21 - 7/22 3462 RV 1.7 49 51 Trump +2
Rasmussen 7/18 - 7/19 1000 LV 3.0 42 43 Trump +1
Reuters 7/16 - 7/20 1232 RV 3.2 40 36 Clinton +4
YouGov 7/15 - 7/17 925 RV 4.5 45 41 Clinton +4
NBC News 7/11 - 7/17 9436 RV 1.4 46 45 Clinton +1
CNN/ORC 7/13 - 7/16 872 RV 3.5 49 42 Clinton +7

you notice anything? 

me too.  two things, actually:

1) there are zero polls which show Clinton up more than 7%

2) there are FIVE that show TRUMP up, including one that shows him up 7%.

I would describe that difference between July 2016 and July 2020 as wildly different.  you can not take stock in that if you wish, but it won't change the facts.

and the facts are that Biden is currently doing 5-10% better than Clinton was at this time in her campaign.  what that means in November?  nothing.  but every day that passes makes this stuff a little more meaningful.

also keep in mind it not just one poll.  THREE polls had Biden ahead in double digits on 7/15, and a fourth had him +9%.  for those that want to say "but it's the states", yes it is.  and Trump is doing terribly in the states, too.  Biden is currently about as competitive in TEXAS as he is in Iowa.

It might not take as long as November.  Trump might only have until Labor Day.

Nervous Republicans worried about losing the Senate are now debating when to break from Trump. Trump campaign internal polls show Trump’s level of “strong support” dropping from 21 to 17 points since last week, a person briefed on the numbers said. A source close to Iowa Republican Joni Ernst’s campaign said Ernst advisers are upset that a solid seat is now in play. “Joni’s campaign is pissed. They should not be in a competitive race,” the source said. ("This is completely false," an Ernst campaign spokesperson said in a statement. "Folks are energized about re-electing Joni Ernst, President Trump and the rest of Republican ballot in Iowa this November.") A Republican strategist close to Mitch McConnell told me that Republicans have Labor Day penciled in as the deadline for Trump to have turned things around. After that, he’s on his own.

www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/trump-despondent-as-numbers-crater-loser-label-looms

Who knows how true the above is, but it makes sense that if things don't improve for Trump, the GOP has to jump ship at some point, especially if they want to salvage The Senate.  Could Trump win without GOP support?  Highly unlikely.

[djAdvocate]

i would never have guessed that Ernst would be vulnerable this year.

but she is.

that state, along with MT, is a tossup.