Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jul 12, 2020 21:39:38 GMT -5
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 12, 2020 21:47:23 GMT -5
I mean, technically we've stabilized at our higher counts. If you do the multi day averages and stuff.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2020 22:07:12 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jul 12, 2020 22:22:38 GMT -5
Apparently the Phoenix Mayor went on CNN and told them that a local hospital had so many bodies, they ordered refrigerated trucks to keep some of them.
A Trump supporting friend posted on FB that this is an outrage that our mayor bold-faced lied and should be removed from office immediately!!
Really? The hospital actually did order the trucks, but haven't started using them. So, if that is the standard for removing people from office, I am 100% on board. I know our mayor, and she is cool, but I will sacrifice her all day to get rid of the liar in chief!!
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Jul 12, 2020 22:55:58 GMT -5
Your Trump supporting friend probably wants to keep the illusion that current Trump fiction is real, not fiction. I.e. everything is OK. And Trump in yet another lame attempt to point fingers so we ignore his massive pandemic failings, is starting on badmouthing Fauci because he wasn't 100% correct all the time. O. M. Unstable non-genius. This is how science works. It does not work by declaring we have one case and it will go away. Everything will be fine by Easter and all other wrong stupid stuff you spouted.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 13, 2020 0:53:24 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 13, 2020 6:13:05 GMT -5
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jul 13, 2020 7:42:31 GMT -5
I mean, technically we've stabilized at our higher counts. If you do the multi day averages and stuff. if you mean "we've stabilized at exponential growth" but stable and exponential growth seem like opposites. Maybe that's just me
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 13, 2020 10:31:39 GMT -5
I mean, technically we've stabilized at our higher counts. If you do the multi day averages and stuff. if you mean "we've stabilized at exponential growth" but stable and exponential growth seem like opposites. Maybe that's just me No, we've consistently been averaging around 11k cases a day when you do a 3 day average (maybe higher, I haven't looked at it in a bit). It's definitely at a high number, but when you average it over a few days (which seems to be a thing they do to account for delays in reporting and other such things) it's been sorta steady at the high amount. Don't get me wrong, it's a high number and it's bad. But you're seeing 15k and being like OMG exponential - when we've been at around 12-14k every day for the last two weeks so it's not exponential growth. Which is again, not a good thing to be that bad. But it seems to have stopped the huge growth we had a few weeks ago where we went from a few thousand to over 10k in a handful of days.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jul 13, 2020 10:34:07 GMT -5
if you mean "we've stabilized at exponential growth" but stable and exponential growth seem like opposites. Maybe that's just me No, we've consistently been averaging around 11k cases a day when you do a 3 day average (maybe higher, I haven't looked at it in a bit). It's definitely at a high number, but when you average it over a few days (which seems to be a thing they do to account for delays in reporting and other such things) it's been sorta steady at the high amount. Don't get me wrong, it's a high number and it's bad. But you're seeing 15k and being like OMG exponential - when we've been at around 12-14k every day for the last two weeks so it's not exponential growth. Which is again, not a good thing to be that bad. But it seems to have stopped the huge growth we had a few weeks ago where we went from a few thousand to over 10k in a handful of days. not according to the graph here www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/you can fit a moving 3 day average and a moving 7 day average, and it is still looking kinda exponential.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jul 13, 2020 10:35:40 GMT -5
same page also shows 12,624 cases reported today thus far.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 13, 2020 10:38:00 GMT -5
No, we've consistently been averaging around 11k cases a day when you do a 3 day average (maybe higher, I haven't looked at it in a bit). It's definitely at a high number, but when you average it over a few days (which seems to be a thing they do to account for delays in reporting and other such things) it's been sorta steady at the high amount. Don't get me wrong, it's a high number and it's bad. But you're seeing 15k and being like OMG exponential - when we've been at around 12-14k every day for the last two weeks so it's not exponential growth. Which is again, not a good thing to be that bad. But it seems to have stopped the huge growth we had a few weeks ago where we went from a few thousand to over 10k in a handful of days. not according to the graph here www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/you can fit a moving 3 day average and a moving 7 day average, and it is still looking kinda exponential. Practically every state looks exponential if you go back to March. So if that's the time frame you're looking at, ok. But then it's still not the 15k cases that made us exponential - that happened over a month ago.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jul 13, 2020 10:40:02 GMT -5
Practically every state looks exponential if you go back to March. So if that's the time frame you're looking at, ok. But then it's still not the 15k cases that made us exponential - that happened over a month ago. no - compare to illinois graph of new daily cases. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 13, 2020 10:40:22 GMT -5
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 13, 2020 10:53:36 GMT -5
same page also shows 12,624 cases reported today thus far. On a Monday.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 13, 2020 10:55:21 GMT -5
Practically every state looks exponential if you go back to March. Yeah, this is not true. ETA: Maybe I'm misunderstanding you? Can you explain what you mean about timeframe? Do you mean many states have had exponential growth at some point?
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 13, 2020 11:37:46 GMT -5
Practically every state looks exponential if you go back to March. Yeah, this is not true. ETA: Maybe I'm misunderstanding you? Can you explain what you mean about timeframe? Do you mean many states have had exponential growth at some point? I mean I took the link that was posted and randomly selected some other states. There was only one of the random ones where the curve was more of a step one. The rest were all exponential - though of varying degrees. Which, honestly, is what one would expect when the timeframe of the graphs started when testing was basically non-existent. You would expect that the number of cases would start of slow because you were barely testing anyone and arguably the virus was still new in the population, and then as the amount of testing went up over time and the propagation of the virus increase you then see exponential growth compared to the beginning where it was only a handful of cases. I was not commenting on the degree of exponential (ie I wasn't saying Florida didn't have a higher curve cuz we're definitely taking that as a challenge) I was saying that when I randomly clicked on some they all had an exponential curve to some degree given the time frame except one.
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 13, 2020 11:41:23 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 13, 2020 11:41:41 GMT -5
Yeah, this is not true. ETA: Maybe I'm misunderstanding you? Can you explain what you mean about timeframe? Do you mean many states have had exponential growth at some point? I mean I took the link that was posted and randomly selected some other states. There was only one of the random ones where the curve was more of a step one. The rest were all exponential - though of varying degrees. Which, honestly, is what one would expect when the timeframe of the graphs started when testing was basically non-existent. You would expect that the number of cases would start of slow because you were barely testing anyone and arguably the virus was still new in the population, and then as the amount of testing went up over time and the propagation of the virus increase you then see exponential growth compared to the beginning where it was only a handful of cases. I was not commenting on the degree of exponential (ie I wasn't saying Florida didn't have a higher curve cuz we're definitely taking that as a challenge) I was saying that when I randomly clicked on some they all had an exponential curve to some degree given the time frame except one. If you click on my state, we were exponential in the beginning, plateaued for a while, declined, and now it is basically flat
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 13, 2020 11:43:25 GMT -5
I mean I took the link that was posted and randomly selected some other states. There was only one of the random ones where the curve was more of a step one. The rest were all exponential - though of varying degrees. Which, honestly, is what one would expect when the timeframe of the graphs started when testing was basically non-existent. You would expect that the number of cases would start of slow because you were barely testing anyone and arguably the virus was still new in the population, and then as the amount of testing went up over time and the propagation of the virus increase you then see exponential growth compared to the beginning where it was only a handful of cases. I was not commenting on the degree of exponential (ie I wasn't saying Florida didn't have a higher curve cuz we're definitely taking that as a challenge) I was saying that when I randomly clicked on some they all had an exponential curve to some degree given the time frame except one. If you click on my state, we were exponential in the beginning, plateaued for a while, declined, and now it is basically flat And if you look at the others I posted there are other examples of those still on upward growth. Though not to the mind numbing degree the Florida is.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 13, 2020 11:48:07 GMT -5
The problem with exponential growth now is that this was supposed to be the "good" time of year, where the weather was going to help us. If we do not control it now, I do not want to guess how bad it will be come fall and winter. And many places where it is out of control are not seriously trying to control it. As I posted someplace else, how many cases and deaths do we need to see to try to control this in the southern US.
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 13, 2020 11:49:45 GMT -5
Exponential growth isn’t due to testing.
This whole thread confuses me. ETA I thought I was in a different thread... I guess multiple threads confuse me lately. Maybe it’s me...
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 13, 2020 11:50:46 GMT -5
The problem with exponential growth now is that this was supposed to be the "good" time of year, where the weather was going to help us. If we do not control it now, I do not want to guess how bad it will be come fall and winter. And many places where it is out of control are not seriously trying to control it. As I posted someplace else, how many cases and deaths do we need to see to try to control this in the southern US. But this is the south’s indoors season. I’m not sure what it means all together given Florida also tends to empty out in some ways during this season, etc.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 13, 2020 11:51:58 GMT -5
Exponential growth isn’t due to testing. This whole thread confuses me. Testing does have something to do with the severity of the case growth compared to earlier. We are finding many more cases than we did in the spring. Given the numbers we are seeing, the numbers in the NE were likely astronomical at the height of the pandemic there
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oped
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Post by oped on Jul 13, 2020 11:53:51 GMT -5
Yes. But many places are testing much more and not having exponential growth at this time. Likewise trouble spots are running into the same testing issues the NE has earlier.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 13, 2020 12:03:30 GMT -5
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 13, 2020 12:03:39 GMT -5
Florida heads indoors in the summer. No one wants to be outside, which was why the bars were so crowded when they were opened. But they're closed now. They've actually been closed for over two weeks now. And we have greatly increased the number of tests in Florida which does account for some of the rise.
But you're focusing on the 15k like it wasn't pretty much already a forgone conclusion we were going to hit it in Florida. If you've been paying any attention to the numbers coming out of here at all I figured it was just a matter of time. It's been a running joke not joke with my friend on the numbers for the last two weeks. This has all been a fallout of the bars being open and shit in Florida, among other things.
I was way more concerned almost a week ago when almost 20% of our tests were coming back positive. And we had been trending up to that crazy number for a while. But we were "only" at 11k positive so no one made a thread about it. The % positive has been coming down the last few days and was actually the lowest it's been in over two weeks when we hit 15k.
I'm more concerned about the idiots in charge opening the bars back up if we get down to a smaller % positive rate than I am about hitting another high number - because the lower % positive rate points to the number of tests playing a role in the higher numbers now with the "lower" % positive rates.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 13, 2020 12:11:17 GMT -5
Yes. But many places are testing much more and not having exponential growth at this time. Likewise trouble spots are running into the same testing issues the NE has earlier. Maybe now, but the run up in case numbers predated it. looking at the numbers, and the average age of cases now and then, it is clear we missed tens of thousands of cases early on. The peaks in all those states would have been higher. Mortality number would likely not change. If you look at mortality at similar points in the epidemic, we could get a better idea of how many cases we missed this spring. So, although it is not pretty in the south, it has a potential to be quite a bit worse given the trajectory they are on. What we are seeing know just shows you how bad our numbers in the northeast really were. At the rate Florida is going, when its case number hits 400k, they will have far fewer deaths. And it is not because we have some magic treatment now. It is because we undercounted by that much
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jul 13, 2020 12:12:20 GMT -5
Florida heads indoors in the summer. No one wants to be outside, which was why the bars were so crowded when they were opened. But they're closed now. They've actually been closed for over two weeks now. And we have greatly increased the number of tests in Florida which does account for some of the rise. But you're focusing on the 15k like it wasn't pretty much already a forgone conclusion we were going to hit it in Florida. If you've been paying any attention to the numbers coming out of here at all I figured it was just a matter of time. It's been a running joke not joke with my friend on the numbers for the last two weeks. This has all been a fallout of the bars being open and shit in Florida, among other things. I was way more concerned almost a week ago when almost 20% of our tests were coming back positive. And we had been trending up to that crazy number for a while. But we were "only" at 11k positive so no one made a thread about it. The % positive has been coming down the last few days and was actually the lowest it's been in over two weeks when we hit 15k. I'm more concerned about the idiots in charge opening the bars back up if we get down to a smaller % positive rate than I am about hitting another high number - because the lower % positive rate points to the number of tests playing a role in the higher numbers now with the "lower" % positive rates. An 11% positive rate is still awful. And with a shortage in tests developing, it will be interesting to see what happens to that number.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Jul 13, 2020 12:20:02 GMT -5
Florida heads indoors in the summer. No one wants to be outside, which was why the bars were so crowded when they were opened. But they're closed now. They've actually been closed for over two weeks now. And we have greatly increased the number of tests in Florida which does account for some of the rise. But you're focusing on the 15k like it wasn't pretty much already a forgone conclusion we were going to hit it in Florida. If you've been paying any attention to the numbers coming out of here at all I figured it was just a matter of time. It's been a running joke not joke with my friend on the numbers for the last two weeks. This has all been a fallout of the bars being open and shit in Florida, among other things. I was way more concerned almost a week ago when almost 20% of our tests were coming back positive. And we had been trending up to that crazy number for a while. But we were "only" at 11k positive so no one made a thread about it. The % positive has been coming down the last few days and was actually the lowest it's been in over two weeks when we hit 15k. I'm more concerned about the idiots in charge opening the bars back up if we get down to a smaller % positive rate than I am about hitting another high number - because the lower % positive rate points to the number of tests playing a role in the higher numbers now with the "lower" % positive rates. An 11% positive rate is still awful. And with a shortage in tests developing, it will be interesting to see what happens to that number. So what’s acceptable? WA is currently at 5.8% (last time I looked). We are also opening up, so you’d expect an increase in the number of cases. So far, healthcare facilities are under control (except Yakima and they’ve been getting help). You would expect an increase as things open, so what is the benchmark we want to stay under?
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