djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 10:51:28 GMT -5
I tried to explain to hubs trump could do anything and because he is anti abortion he has the churchie crowd here locally. He doesn't think so, but he doesn't realize they are totally crazy over that. And trump has pandered to this group, giving them money for private schools, etc. He still has support from this bunch. Some has flaked away but i would not be so sure he will lose yet. They just don't seem to care that he accused a commentator of murder, is corrupt, is unstable. Is ruining the military and everything he touches while kissing putins ass. Then add in voter suppression of all kinds. I'm scared to death he will get in again, unless the dems get a senate majority he will complete putins plan of destroying the US. They won't understand that till russian troops are marching down our streets. And I think that is a real possibility too. Only when they start losing freedoms after that will they understand and hard line crackdowns, and if it suppresses people of color they will love that too. there is nothing to indicate he will win.
and to answer the obvious question: yes, there were indications he would win the last time. the race was too close to call in late October.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 10:54:02 GMT -5
false. the polls were more accurate in 2016 than 2012.
do you know you are repeating a lie, or do you think you are telling the truth?
You're picking only one moment in time, out of the whole span of the time leading up to the election. I was looking at the overall. the only way to judge polls is by comparing them to elections.
the further away from the event, the less accurate the poll.
the polls were within 1%, nationally, on election day. that is historically about average, and good enough to call an election, under normal circumstances.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Jul 6, 2020 11:00:02 GMT -5
Don't know, the Trump voters are a closed mouth bunch. They made an ass of most pollsters at the last presidential election. I was so sure he was going to lose last time, that I didn't even check till the next day after the vote was long counted. I'm making no guesses this time. I got my two Supreme Court Justices installed, I'm good. Have you checked how they've been voting ? It's not what most were expecting. I think those two have been voting exactly as expected. It's Roberts that is saving the day. An article that I read last week stated that while Roberts is appearing liberal on civil liberties, he is very much pro-business and has increased corporate freedom/power. The article surmised that he is one of the reasons why there is a larger divide between haves and have nots. This isn't the article, but it is another one: billmoyers.com/story/john-roberts-is-following-corporate-americas-long-term-plan/
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 6, 2020 12:18:10 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 6, 2020 12:24:45 GMT -5
You're picking only one moment in time, out of the whole span of the time leading up to the election. I was looking at the overall. the only way to judge polls is by comparing them to elections.
the further away from the event, the less accurate the poll.
the polls were within 1%, nationally, on election day. that is historically about average, and good enough to call an election, under normal circumstances.
Generally disagree. The only way to judge a poll is by looking at their methodology and what the polling organization itself reports about the poll. It is not a fair judgement of the poll to look at what any third party says the poll says. There is no way to determine the accuracy of a poll. The length of time prior to an election a poll is taken concerns it predictive factor, not accuracy. It is fair to call into question the value of a poll taken in close proximity to an election that is not close to the results of the election if the stated goal of the poll is to predict that election.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 12:41:13 GMT -5
the only way to judge polls is by comparing them to elections.
the further away from the event, the less accurate the poll.
the polls were within 1%, nationally, on election day. that is historically about average, and good enough to call an election, under normal circumstances.
Generally disagree. The only way to judge a poll is by looking at their methodology and what the polling organization itself reports about the poll. It is not a fair judgement of the poll to look at what any third party says the poll says. There is no way to determine the accuracy of a poll. The length of time prior to an election a poll is taken concerns it predictive factor, not accuracy. It is fair to call into question the value of a poll taken in close proximity to an election that is not close to the results of the election if the stated goal of the poll is to predict that election. I think we are talking about two different things.
you can judge pollsters by their methodology. but the ONLY way to judge a poll is by assessing it after the fact against the thing being polled.
the accuracy of a poll is impossible to determine UNTIL the election takes place. and yes, things can happen in the final days and hours before an election that changes the outcome (I would posit that is what happened in 2016).
I think you are trivializing polling. again. You do that a lot, bills. and that's fine. but there is actually a lot of data on how polling varies relative to the time before an election.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
i am not sure whose interest it is in to undermine polls, but i see it a lot. that is also fine. you can treat them as nonsense and noise if you like. but as Silver correctly states, it is all you got. so you can believe that anything can happen, if you like. but you should probably do this with the knowledge that the polls accurately predicted 49 out of 50 state outcomes in 2012, and 47 out of 50 state outcomes in 2016. and yeah, it turned out that the three that the polls were WRONG in cost HC the election. and yeah, that undermines confidence in elections and polling. but i also think it is unfair to throw polling under a bus because the numbers were wildly off in 1 state and narrowly off in two.
polling is generally pretty good in the US, and getting better over time, imo. if you go back to the house elections thread in 2018, the poll deniers were predicting a GOP landslide. they were wrong.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 6, 2020 13:02:30 GMT -5
... I think you are trivializing polling. again. You do that a lot, bills. and that's fine. but there is actually a lot of data on how polling varies relative to the time before an election. ... I think I am attempting to put polling in a proper perspective. Polling information is invaluable to a campaign as they are working to fine tune strategies to gain a win on Election Day. They are a wonderful fix to feed the needs of political junkies. They are as good as anything to report on to fill time on modern 24/7 cable networks. Other than that, what are their value to the average citizen?
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laterbloomer
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Post by laterbloomer on Jul 6, 2020 18:36:59 GMT -5
Generally disagree. The only way to judge a poll is by looking at their methodology and what the polling organization itself reports about the poll. It is not a fair judgement of the poll to look at what any third party says the poll says. There is no way to determine the accuracy of a poll. The length of time prior to an election a poll is taken concerns it predictive factor, not accuracy. It is fair to call into question the value of a poll taken in close proximity to an election that is not close to the results of the election if the stated goal of the poll is to predict that election. I think we are talking about two different things.
you can judge pollsters by their methodology. but the ONLY way to judge a poll is by assessing it after the fact against the thing being polled.
the accuracy of a poll is impossible to determine UNTIL the election takes place. and yes, things can happen in the final days and hours before an election that changes the outcome (I would posit that is what happened in 2016).
I think you are trivializing polling. again. You do that a lot, bills. and that's fine. but there is actually a lot of data on how polling varies relative to the time before an election.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
i am not sure whose interest it is in to undermine polls, but i see it a lot. that is also fine. you can treat them as nonsense and noise if you like. but as Silver correctly states, it is all you got. so you can believe that anything can happen, if you like. but you should probably do this with the knowledge that the polls accurately predicted 49 out of 50 state outcomes in 2012, and 47 out of 50 state outcomes in 2016. and yeah, it turned out that the three that the polls were WRONG in cost HC the election. and yeah, that undermines confidence in elections and polling. but i also think it is unfair to throw polling under a bus because the numbers were wildly off in 1 state and narrowly off in two.
polling is generally pretty good in the US, and getting better over time, imo. if you go back to the house elections thread in 2018, the poll deniers were predicting a GOP landslide. they were wrong.
Those were 3 of the places that the voting booths were rigged. Well enough of them to steal the Presidency.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2020 20:04:25 GMT -5
... I think you are trivializing polling. again. You do that a lot, bills. and that's fine. but there is actually a lot of data on how polling varies relative to the time before an election. ... I think I am attempting to put polling in a proper perspective. Polling information is invaluable to a campaign as they are working to fine tune strategies to gain a win on Election Day. They are a wonderful fix to feed the needs of political junkies. They are as good as anything to report on to fill time on modern 24/7 cable networks. Other than that, what are their value to the average citizen? they tell you whether or not you should be emotionally invested in a cause.
IE- I would not be too emotionally invested in Trump right now. if you want to do that, fine. do it. but be prepared to be disappointed. because his odds of winning are slipping by the day.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 6, 2020 22:10:10 GMT -5
I think I am attempting to put polling in a proper perspective. Polling information is invaluable to a campaign as they are working to fine tune strategies to gain a win on Election Day. They are a wonderful fix to feed the needs of political junkies. They are as good as anything to report on to fill time on modern 24/7 cable networks. Other than that, what are their value to the average citizen? they tell you whether or not you should be emotionally invested in a cause.
IE- I would not be too emotionally invested in Trump right now. if you want to do that, fine. do it. but be prepared to be disappointed. because his odds of winning are slipping by the day.
Yes, the highs and lows of getting your poll fix when you are a political junkie. I mentioned that one. But there are few who have a codependent relation with a candidate.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jul 7, 2020 8:23:52 GMT -5
He surprised some people, including me, with some of his other votes, particularly the ones involving Native Americans.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 7, 2020 11:21:15 GMT -5
they tell you whether or not you should be emotionally invested in a cause.
IE- I would not be too emotionally invested in Trump right now. if you want to do that, fine. do it. but be prepared to be disappointed. because his odds of winning are slipping by the day.
Yes, the highs and lows of getting your poll fix when you are a political junkie. I mentioned that one. But there are few who have a codependent relation with a candidate. not feeling much in the way of lows, these days. the last time I felt even slightly worried was right around early April, when Trump got a 3 year low in disapproval of just under 50%. that was depressing.
so, yeah- four months of not much concern on my part. you make it sound like it is a daily jones akin to crack, and it is really not like that.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2020 11:29:47 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2020 11:32:52 GMT -5
He surprised some people, including me, with some of his other votes, particularly the ones involving Native Americans. He didn't surprise me, I was expecting him to make a good judge. What doesn't surprise me is the cherry picking of cases, and not making note of all of them. (well maybe I shouldn't be too surprised at that)
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Jul 7, 2020 12:15:44 GMT -5
I think I am attempting to put polling in a proper perspective. Polling information is invaluable to a campaign as they are working to fine tune strategies to gain a win on Election Day. They are a wonderful fix to feed the needs of political junkies. They are as good as anything to report on to fill time on modern 24/7 cable networks. Other than that, what are their value to the average citizen? they tell you whether or not you should be emotionally invested in a cause.
IE- I would not be too emotionally invested in Trump right now. if you want to do that, fine. do it. but be prepared to be disappointed. because his odds of winning are slipping by the day.
It's amazing how emotionally invested his base is. It's rare to find one who even considers the idea of him losing, or doesn't take his victory to be a certainty. It's almost...um, what's the word?...CULTISH in a way. There are gonna be a lot of shocked and pissed off folks if/WHEN he loses. And that's gonna feed right into the election fraud claims that are sure to follow. This is gonna be messy.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jul 7, 2020 12:42:49 GMT -5
they tell you whether or not you should be emotionally invested in a cause.
IE- I would not be too emotionally invested in Trump right now. if you want to do that, fine. do it. but be prepared to be disappointed. because his odds of winning are slipping by the day.
It's amazing how emotionally invested his base is. It's rare to find one who even considers the idea of him losing, or doesn't take his victory to be a certainty. It's almost...um, what's the word?...CULTISH in a way. There are gonna be a lot of shocked and pissed off folks if/WHEN he loses. And that's gonna feed right into the election fraud claims that are sure to follow. This is gonna be messy. I said that exact same thing in 2016, and sure as shit, those people were right.
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