About those polls

[laterbloomer]

Is anyone doing them based on the electoral college? With Hillary we learned the hard way that winning the popular vote isn't enough.

[Bob Ross]

Here's the current electoral college map from realclearpolitics which shows Biden at 222 and Trump at 125, with 191 up for grabs.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

On the topic of polls...

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

This article is from before the 2018 elections, but it's basically saying that polling has in fact got a bit more accurate in recent times, even given the results of 2016 where it still was within it's margins of error.
The Trumpists can cry "fake polls" all they want, but the numbers aren't on their side when comparing polling vs. actual election results.

If you scroll down to the second chart, the average margin of error in a Presidential election has been 4.1% (nationally) and 4.8% (states) since 1972 with it even closer than that for the elections of this millennia, save the 2016 State polls average at 5.2%

So basically, Donny will have to narrow the margin likely under 3% (Nationally) and 4% (States) to have a shot, so things aren't looking too good for him right now, as Biden's currently polling up 10.1% nationally and well above 4% in key swing states Florida, Arizona, And Wisconsin, and at 4% in Arizona.  Biden is also up 8% on average in Michigan although there is a wide variance based on the specific pollsters in that one.

The question is do you think it's possible for Don Don to make up the difference, given his actions and demeanor?  Possible, yes, but he doesn't really have the skill set to do it on his own.  The odds are much more likely that he'll continue on his path of division and destruction. Plus, given the current COVID situation, can you really see the economy "roaring back" by the fall?  In my opinion, it's gonna take pretty much a miracle or a Biden collapse in order for that to happen.

 

[pulmonarymd]

In addition, winning in 2016 was like threading the needle. Everything brroke the way he needed it to, and the polls still were mostly like. It is shaping up to be even more difficult for him this year, but even if it weren't, he would still need things to break in the same way for him. The odds of this happening twice in a row are small. And if he loses the national vote, but wins the EC, we are going to have a whole host of problems the next 4 years.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 24, 2020 14:00:02 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Is anyone doing them based on the electoral college? With Hillary we learned the hard way that winning the popular vote isn't enough.

of course.

Biden is leading right now by about the same margin as Obama won by in 2012 (334 EV).

it doesn't mean that much, however, since state polling is quite thin in about half the country.

538 could do a really good analysis by grouping states with similar voting patterns together, if they wanted to.  but TTBOMK, they have not done so.

[billisonboard]

I wonder how many people have ever looked at a poll. Not read a story that reported on a poll, but looked at the poll itself. I don't doubt djAdvocate has, but others? 

[dondub]

I depend on the astute observations of DJ poll dancer.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 24, 2020 18:56:06 GMT -5 dondub said:

I depend on the astute observations of DJ poll dancer.

thanks, don. I am obsessively interested in the polls.

to the detriment of many things.

[happyhoix]

New Fox News poll puts trump tied or behind Biden in key battleground states.

Biden is two points ahead of trump in Georgia- holy shit.

I saw Mnunchin on tv the other day saying the polls aren’t accurate because trump supporters don’t trust government and usually don’t respond to pollsters. Nice try, but smells like bullshit to me.

[Bob Ross]

Jun 26, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

New Fox News poll puts trump tied or behind Biden in key battleground states.

Biden is two points ahead of trump in Georgia- holy shit.

I saw Mnunchin on tv the other day saying the polls aren’t accurate because trump supporters don’t trust government and usually don’t respond to pollsters. Nice try, but smells like bullshit to me.

"Mnuchin" should become a new colloquialism for "manure".

[dondub]

Jun 26, 2020 10:44:39 GMT -5 Bob Ross said:

Jun 26, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

New Fox News poll puts trump tied or behind Biden in key battleground states.

Biden is two points ahead of trump in Georgia- holy shit.

I saw Mnunchin on tv the other day saying the polls aren’t accurate because trump supporters don’t trust government and usually don’t respond to pollsters. Nice try, but smells like bullshit to me.

"Mnuchin" should become a new colloquialism for "manure".

Or misspell it as Munchin because he eats....

[thyme4change]

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

[Bob Ross]

Jun 26, 2020 13:30:13 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

I'd be surprised if that happened.  I think people are going to vote like their lives depended on it, regardless of what the polls say.  The exception would be if COVID gets incredibly bad and alternative voting methods aren't available.  Hmmmm...

[Tennesseer]

Jun 26, 2020 15:47:06 GMT -5 Bob Ross said:

Jun 26, 2020 13:30:13 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

I'd be surprised if that happened.  I think people are going to vote like their lives depended on it, regardless of what the polls say.  The exception would be if COVID gets incredibly bad and alternative voting methods aren't available.  Hmmmm...

A message which requires repeating over and over again this election season.

[thyme4change]

Jun 26, 2020 15:47:06 GMT -5 Bob Ross said:

Jun 26, 2020 13:30:13 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

I'd be surprised if that happened.  I think people are going to vote like their lives depended on it, regardless of what the polls say.  The exception would be if COVID gets incredibly bad and alternative voting methods aren't available.  Hmmmm...

I hope you are right!!

[NastyWoman]

Jun 26, 2020 15:47:06 GMT -5 Bob Ross said:

Jun 26, 2020 13:30:13 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

I'd be surprised if that happened.  I think people are going to vote like their lives depended on it, regardless of what the polls say.  The exception would be if COVID gets incredibly bad and alternative voting methods aren't available.  Hmmmm...

I sure hope so, as for quite a few their lives actually will depend on getting that ... Out of the WH 

[justme]

Jun 26, 2020 13:30:13 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

One would hope they learned from the polls 4 years ago. Not sure if it's too optimistic to say they did.

Personally polls never influenced my vote and I've voted every presidential election I could, though I've missed some off years.

[thyme4change]

Jun 26, 2020 23:45:02 GMT -5 justme said:

Jun 26, 2020 13:30:13 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

One would hope they learned from the polls 4 years ago. Not sure if it's too optimistic to say they did.

Personally polls never influenced my vote and I've voted every presidential election I could, though I've missed some off years.

There are a lot of responsible voters out there.

However, there are also a lot of people who feel so voiceless in the system that it is easy to get discouraged. If you don't like either of the choices for President and know the electoral college will invalidate your vote and the polls make it seem like a foregone conclusion, and you don't understand the importance of the down ballot or if the state of congress or your state makes you discouraged too, and you have to take unpaid hours or travel for a while in public transportation and there is a long line and a pandemic - maybe voting just sucks.

[pulmonarymd]

Voting doesn’t suck. It’s that we don’t demand better candidates. The system is such that good people don’t want to put themselves through it. We care about stupid shit, respond to negative advertising better than positive, tear people’s private lives apart, and don’t educate ourselves. If we want better candidates, we have to be willing to vote for the person and not a party, and we need to have more competitive districts. The entrenched politicians don’t want competitive elections. When did being a representative become a lifetime job

[billisonboard]

Jun 27, 2020 8:28:37 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Voting doesn’t suck. ...

Damm straight. But then, i currently live in a state in which my ballot is delivered to my post office box. I always have at least a week to fill it out. I can fill it out at six in the morning, ten at night, or anytime in between. I can even do it at three o'clock in the morning if I am struggling to sleep. It is available any day of the week. Prior to this current arrangement and I had to go somewhere to vote, I always had my own personal vehicle to get me there. I always had enough money for gas. My polling location always had more than adequate parking. They were open well before my work day started and well beyond when my work day ended. Etc, etc, etc.

From what I have seen and read, the steps necessary for others to vote do suck.

[Tennesseer]

[justme]

Jun 27, 2020 8:19:05 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Jun 26, 2020 23:45:02 GMT -5 justme said:

One would hope they learned from the polls 4 years ago. Not sure if it's too optimistic to say they did.

Personally polls never influenced my vote and I've voted every presidential election I could, though I've missed some off years.

There are a lot of responsible voters out there.

However, there are also a lot of people who feel so voiceless in the system that it is easy to get discouraged. If you don't like either of the choices for President and know the electoral college will invalidate your vote and the polls make it seem like a foregone conclusion, and you don't understand the importance of the down ballot or if the state of congress or your state makes you discouraged too, and you have to take unpaid hours or travel for a while in public transportation and there is a long line and a pandemic - maybe voting just sucks.

True. Living in Florida definitely skews my perspective with it always being a swing state. I feel like I have to make sure it's not just the old fogies voting. Even though my parents were pretty about conveying the importance of voting, I'd probably be a lot more fatalistic about it if I was in a solid red or blue state.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 26, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

New Fox News poll puts trump tied or behind Biden in key battleground states.

Biden is two points ahead of trump in Georgia- holy shit.

that is true.   Trump is doing surprisingly well in states like IA, NH, OH, and NC.

but Biden way ahead in a few key battleground states, like Michigan, PA, and WI.

perhaps most terrifying, Trump is trailing in FL and AZ, two states it is hard to imagine him losing and winning the election.

[bean29]

Jun 26, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

New Fox News poll puts trump tied or behind Biden in key battleground states.

Biden is two points ahead of trump in Georgia- holy shit.

I saw Mnunchin on tv the other day saying the polls aren’t accurate because trump supporters don’t trust government and usually don’t respond to pollsters. Nice try, but smells like bullshit to me.

Actually, I was questioning the accuracy of the polls myself.  Exactly who is answering the poll questions nowadays?  When I have gotten them on my phone, they always come back and ask for a donation - therefore, I no longer try to answer the questions.  I don't answer unidentified caller calls - even if they say they are 538 calling about a poll, I have no way of knowing if they really are 538 of if it is someone else data mining.  If a pollster would get me to answer, I most likely would hang up on them.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 26, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I saw Mnunchin on tv the other day saying the polls aren’t accurate because trump supporters don’t trust government and usually don’t respond to pollsters. Nice try, but smells like bullshit to me.

it's complete crap.

first of all, it only takes about 400 people to conduct a fairly accurate scientific poll.

second, if half the registered Republicans hang up, or don't answer, ANY pollster will call twice as many.  if the number is 90%, they will call 10x as many.  etc.  this idea that GOP voters don't respond to polls is silly on the surface, and gets sillier as you gain more understanding of polls.

NOTE: they said the same thing in 2016, and the polls were accurate in all but a few states.  unfortunately, in a close election, a few states matter. 

HOPEFULLY IT WON'T JUST BE A FEW STATES THIS TIME.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 27, 2020 14:26:41 GMT -5 bean29 said:

Jun 26, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

New Fox News poll puts trump tied or behind Biden in key battleground states.

Biden is two points ahead of trump in Georgia- holy shit.

I saw Mnunchin on tv the other day saying the polls aren’t accurate because trump supporters don’t trust government and usually don’t respond to pollsters. Nice try, but smells like bullshit to me.

Actually, I was questioning the accuracy of the polls myself.  Exactly who is answering the poll questions nowadays?  When I have gotten them on my phone, they always come back and ask for a donation - therefore, I no longer try to answer the questions.  I don't answer unidentified caller calls - even if they say they are 538 calling about a poll, I have no way of knowing if they really are 538 of if it is someone else data mining.  If a pollster would get me to answer, I most likely would hang up on them.

I would bet polls are actually easier to conduct right now than ever.  far more people are at home than any time in the last half century or so, and are starved for companionship, even from some rando pollster.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 26, 2020 15:47:06 GMT -5 Bob Ross said:

Jun 26, 2020 13:30:13 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

I hope voters learned their lesson last time. They think the polls say one thing, so they don't bother to vote.

Or, what my mom did - she hated Trump, but wanted to make sure Hillary didn't win every state, so she voted for Trump. She felt bad that he won. I am under the impression she won't do that again. My Father hated Trump, so didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary, but now he is committed to voting for Biden, just to get Trump out of there.

But, if the polls say Biden is a shoe in, are a bunch of people going to abandon him, thinking it doesn't much matter?

I'd be surprised if that happened.  I think people are going to vote like their lives depended on it, regardless of what the polls say.  The exception would be if COVID gets incredibly bad and alternative voting methods aren't available.  Hmmmm...

the people who are most at risk are Trump's best demographic.

[thyme4change]

Jun 27, 2020 14:29:49 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 26, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

I saw Mnunchin on tv the other day saying the polls aren’t accurate because trump supporters don’t trust government and usually don’t respond to pollsters. Nice try, but smells like bullshit to me.

it's complete crap.

first of all, it only takes about 400 people to conduct a fairly accurate scientific poll.

second, if half the registered Republicans hang up, or don't answer, ANY pollster will call twice as many.  if the number is 90%, they will call 10x as many.  etc.  this idea that GOP voters don't respond to polls is silly on the surface, and gets sillier as you gain more understanding of polls.

NOTE: they said the same thing in 2016, and the polls were accurate in all but a few states.  unfortunately, in a close election, a few states matter. 

HOPEFULLY IT WON'T JUST BE A FEW STATES THIS TIME.

I see no evidence that Trump supporters have the ability to shut up about their political opinions.

[djAdvocate]

yeah. that too. /\

[dezii]

Jun 24, 2020 15:14:29 GMT -5 Bob Ross said:

Here's the current electoral college map from realclearpolitics which shows Biden at 222 and Trump at 125, with 191 up for grabs.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

On the topic of polls...

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

This article is from before the 2018 elections, but it's basically saying that polling has in fact got a bit more accurate in recent times, even given the results of 2016 where it still was within it's margins of error.
The Trumpists can cry "fake polls" all they want, but the numbers aren't on their side when comparing polling vs. actual election results.

If you scroll down to the second chart, the average margin of error in a Presidential election has been 4.1% (nationally) and 4.8% (states) since 1972 with it even closer than that for the elections of this millennia, save the 2016 State polls average at 5.2%

So basically, Donny will have to narrow the margin likely under 3% (Nationally) and 4% (States) to have a shot, so things aren't looking too good for him right now, as Biden's currently polling up 10.1% nationally and well above 4% in key swing states Florida, Arizona, And Wisconsin, and at 4% in Arizona.  Biden is also up 8% on average in Michigan although there is a wide variance based on the specific pollsters in that one.

The question is do you think it's possible for Don Don to make up the difference, given his actions and demeanor?  Possible, yes, but he doesn't really have the skill set to do it on his own.  The odds are much more likely that he'll continue on his path of division and destruction. Plus, given the current COVID situation, can you really see the economy "roaring back" by the fall?  In my opinion, it's gonna take pretty much a miracle or a Biden collapse in order for that to happen.

 

If the latest national and state polls are correct, President Trump’s bid for a second term faces serious headwinds in the four months until the election.

Nineteen different polls of voters in swing states released this week show Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden


www.yahoo.com/news/polls-deliver-more-bad-news-for-trump-212512953.html

[djAdvocate]

part of me thinks:

"yes, you're right. Biden is going to lose. Trump will crush him",

hoping that some people will stay home that might vote for his dumb ass.

but I just can't be that dishonest.