What 1918’s “Forgotten Pandemic” Can Teach Us About Today

[teen persuasion]

Author Ellen Marie Wiseman has an article in Vanity Fair about her research into the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.  Lots of parallels to our current pandemic.

When the flu hit in 1918, some newspapers reported that influenza posed no danger because it was as old as history, the kind of thing that was usually accompanied by foul air, fog, and plagues of insects. Advice to citizens for preventing illness included keeping their feet dry, staying warm, eating more onions, and keeping their bowels and windows open. Phonographs were advertised as machines guaranteed to drive away influenza, because by passing the time listening to records, you’d never know you had to stay home at night. Even more curious were some of the remedies used: garlic and camphor balls wrapped in cheesecloth and tied around the necks; sugar cubes soaked in kerosene; formaldehyde tablets, morphine, laudanum, and chloride of lime. Whiskey and Mrs. Winslow’s Soothing Syrup—which contained morphine, alcohol, ammonia—were even given to babies and children. The American Medical Association called the syrup a “baby killer” in 1911, but it wasn’t removed from the market until the 1930s.

World War I was still ongoing, and wartime restrictions on communication had deadly effects. There were limits on writing or publishing anything negative about the country, and posters asked the public to “report the man who spreads pessimistic stories.” In Philadelphia, doctors convinced reporters to write about the risk posed to the public by the Liberty Loan parade on September 28, which would gather thousands of people who could potentially spread the flu. Editors refused to run the stories, or any letters from the doctors. More than 20,000 Phildelphians later died of the flu.

Any of the preventive measures used back then are also being used today. In what we now call social distancing or sheltering in place, people were told to stay home and to keep away from crowds.

Posters went up that read: “When obliged to cough or sneeze, always place a handkerchief, paper napkin, or fabric of some kind before the face,” or “Cover your mouth! Influenza Is Spread by Droplets Sprayed From Nose and Mouth” and “Spitting Equals Death.” Some cities ordered all citizens to wear gauze masks in public. Signs read: “Obey the laws and wear the gauze, protect your jaws from septic paws.” Schools, churches, meetinghouses, movie theaters, saloons, and all places of gathering, even factories were ordered closed. Trollies would forbid anyone not wearing a mask to board, and funerals were not allowed.

[NastyWoman]

They had paper napkins in 1918?

But it does not look like we learned a lot in the intervening 100 years! More is the pity

[djAdvocate]

I have been saying this for about a month now.

if correct, 2M people die in the US.

[Artemis Windsong]

With your prediction, we have a long way to go. 309,724 May 16, 2020, worldometer.

[pulmonarymd]

May 16, 2020 9:41:40 GMT -5 Artemis Windsong said:

With your prediction, we have a long way to go. 309,724 May 16, 2020, worldometer.

No he is talking abut 2 million dead in the US, we are just shy of 90,000. So yes we have a LONG way to go. Flu in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million worldwide

[oped]

The issue is exponential growth. If we keep the R rate at 1 or below, it doesn't happen... but an R of 3+ means look the fuck out. 

What is really interesting here though is that the R is SO lopsided. Some people infect noone... others seem to infect 10s, 100s? ... events and timing are everything, and not totally predictable at this time. 

[billisonboard]

May 16, 2020 9:48:57 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

May 16, 2020 9:41:40 GMT -5 Artemis Windsong said:

With your prediction, we have a long way to go. 309,724 May 16, 2020, worldometer.

No he is talking abut 2 million dead in the US, we are just shy of 90,000. So yes we have a LONG way to go. Flu in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million worldwide

I wonder if the death count will be lower in part because doctors are now better at treating most of the other things that complicate surviving COVID 19?

[pulmonarymd]

May 16, 2020 10:40:36 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

May 16, 2020 9:48:57 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

No he is talking abut 2 million dead in the US, we are just shy of 90,000. So yes we have a LONG way to go. Flu in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million worldwide

I wonder if the death count will be lower in part because doctors are now better at treating most of the other things that complicate surviving COVID 19?

Likely true, we have the ability to support multi-organ failure. In addition, we don't do the stupid things we did back then that made people worse. Our ability to evaluate and understand is also better. But, in the absence of an actual treatment, hard to know how effective all of our therapies would have been for that infection. Scary thing is the number of people who were sick then would overwhelm the system given the level of support needed. Other interesting factor is the older people did relatively better compared to the younger folks in 1918, the exact opposite of now. Theory was the older population had been exposed to a less severe H1N1 virus in the past, so had some immunity. All of this is interesting stuff

[azucena]

Today's mobility has to be taken into account in any comparison against 1918. People weren't traveling internationally or even across multiple county lines.

[pulmonarymd]

Makes controlling spread of the infection even more difficult

[djAdvocate]

May 16, 2020 10:40:36 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

May 16, 2020 9:48:57 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

No he is talking abut 2 million dead in the US, we are just shy of 90,000. So yes we have a LONG way to go. Flu in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million worldwide

I wonder if the death count will be lower in part because doctors are now better at treating most of the other things that complicate surviving COVID 19?

could be.

to be clear, my statement had to do with it following the precise path of the Spanish Flu.

I am not "predicting" 2M.

right now, I am predicting 125-150k.

but I don't feel optimistic about that.

[pulmonarymd]

May 16, 2020 18:12:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 16, 2020 10:40:36 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I wonder if the death count will be lower in part because doctors are now better at treating most of the other things that complicate surviving COVID 19?

could be.

to be clear, my statement had to do with it following the precise path of the Spanish Flu.

I am not "predicting" 2M.

right now, I am predicting 125-150k.

but I don't feel optimistic about that.

200000 by the end of the year

[dondub]

Today the world meter says the US had a smidge over 1000 deaths. At 500 per day until NY Eve there is another 114,500 on top of the 89,000 already. Safe bet doc, but 300k seems possible too.

[pulmonarymd]

May 16, 2020 18:47:29 GMT -5 dondub said:

Today the world meter says the US had a smidge over 1000 deaths. At 500 per day until NY Eve there is another 114,500 on top of the 89,000 already. Safe bet doc, but 300k seems possible too.

Well trump did pledge to make America great again. Let’s go us

[The Walk of the Penguin Mich]

May 16, 2020 11:19:23 GMT -5 azucena said:

Today's mobility has to be taken into account in any comparison against 1918. People weren't traveling internationally or even across multiple county lines.

Actually, people were being mobilized for WW1 and there was a lot more travel.  Back then, rural people were coming into cities and the flu was complicated by people getting different strains of different diseases.  Measles also complicated things badly.  

The Great Influenza by John Barry is really interesting reading, because it talks quite a bit about how travel complicated things, even back then.

[Spellbound454]

We in the UK managed to kill a load of extra people because the then health minister,  Sir Arthur Newsholme..... wanted people to return to work for the war effort.

In startlingly honest language, Sir Arthur told the conference: “The relentless needs of warfare justify the risks of spreading infection and the associated creation of a more virulent type of disease.”

So the plans to isolate were ripped up.......... and loads of people died.

www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/coronavirus-spanish-flu-dark-history-keep-calm-carry-advice/