djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 11, 2020 16:53:10 GMT -5
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/according to the daily new deaths graph below the state counts, it indicates that yesterday there were fewer than 1k deaths/day from covid in the us for the first time since March. Just got a text dentist is opening up for non-emergency patients. I'm feeling very ambivalent about things opening up. yesterday - I was thinking about all the families who have lost their mothers to covid, all the mothers who have lost children to covid. It just doesn't seem worth it to push opening up. It we all hunkered down all at once with supplies and no need for shopping - no rent or mortgages due - just nothing - it seems we could starve it out like SARS. Seem that could have occurred on a much smaller scale in localized areas if this threat had been taken more seriously. If we were will to support people in affected areas and contain and extinct this virus if possible. Seriously - why are we here? This didn't have to happened. We are smarter than this - it's not the middle ages. This could have been avoided, and I think it's time to really start asking why it wasn't. We aren't smarter than this. I am also not sure we can literally shut down for long enough. Having two weeks of supplies is rough for a lot of people, and didn't they find active Covid on surfaces in the cruise ship 17 days after it had been empty? If so, maybe 2 weeks isn't even enough. So, biologically, it would be very tough to starve it out. Not to mention economically. Just because us rich people can skip a couple of paychecks and still eat the steak in our freezer, being totally shut down for a month would sink a huge number of businesses. we could shut down indefinitely for untested people.
that would actually be an interesting presidential mandate......if he believed in testing.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 11, 2020 18:12:18 GMT -5
We apparently aren’t smarter than this, nor does it look like we have learned anything either. I used to think we were getting smarter too, but the last few years have disabused me of that notion we are smarter than this, and we have the tech tools to navigate this. the fact is we failed. it was fear and not a lack of knowledge that betrayed us. You are too kind. It was incompetence and lack of caring from the people who were supposed to protect us
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 12, 2020 13:25:36 GMT -5
We aren't smarter than this. I am also not sure we can literally shut down for long enough. Having two weeks of supplies is rough for a lot of people, and didn't they find active Covid on surfaces in the cruise ship 17 days after it had been empty? If so, maybe 2 weeks isn't even enough. So, biologically, it would be very tough to starve it out. Not to mention economically. Just because us rich people can skip a couple of paychecks and still eat the steak in our freezer, being totally shut down for a month would sink a huge number of businesses. and what if it is one of your loved ones that is collateral damage in this? maybe even one of your children? will the reengaged economy comfort you? will the small business down the street surviving make it worthwhile? this is what I am talking about. NYC is finding out that sometimes healthy children are dying suddenly due to a covid related illness. Is this all acceptable when it is someone's else children? How are you going to shut down grocery stores?
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on May 12, 2020 15:02:25 GMT -5
and what if it is one of your loved ones that is collateral damage in this? maybe even one of your children? will the reengaged economy comfort you? will the small business down the street surviving make it worthwhile? this is what I am talking about. NYC is finding out that sometimes healthy children are dying suddenly due to a covid related illness. Is this all acceptable when it is someone's else children? How are you going to shut down grocery stores? You can't shut down grocery stores, but you can do things to make them safer to shop (as well as make them safer for employees). Meter the number of people in, required customers (as well as workers) to wear masks, sanitize the carts, and areas touched when paying, install sneeze guards. Most of the stores around here have implemented a number of these measures. Currently they "ask" customers to wear face coverings - while most do, some still do not. And the delivery workers stocking the shelves don't wear masks or gloves - that needs to change.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on May 12, 2020 15:15:57 GMT -5
I was scoffed at at a Lowe’s Saturday by a guy in full camo. Was wearing a mask. Had just come from a large nursery biz with 6’ waiting line, spaced entry, and mask requirement.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 12, 2020 16:49:51 GMT -5
and what if it is one of your loved ones that is collateral damage in this? maybe even one of your children? will the reengaged economy comfort you? will the small business down the street surviving make it worthwhile? this is what I am talking about. NYC is finding out that sometimes healthy children are dying suddenly due to a covid related illness. Is this all acceptable when it is someone's else children? How are you going to shut down grocery stores? the entire system is arbitrary and could be changed in many different ways. do people have to walk around the store and pull things off the shelf and put in carts and go through check out? no. things could be done differently. curbside is being done for a lot of things. Could we make sure everyone has everything they need for 3 weeks? 4 weeks? longer? with emergency contingencies? of course we could.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on May 12, 2020 17:10:16 GMT -5
Public policy based on personal emotion is unworkable. public policy without emotion is meaningless and likely dystopian in fact - without emotion, there is no public policy do you mean "emotion" to be, like, just and fair? Or do you mean "emotion" to be - "people feel this is a good thing (even though it's not fair or just) - so let's do it!" Or, we don't have alot of info on this - but doing X "feels right"? Personally, I'd like public policy to be fair and just and aimed at making the place better for as many people as possible. I don't think "emotion" gets that done...
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 12, 2020 18:10:39 GMT -5
How are you going to shut down grocery stores? the entire system is arbitrary and could be changed in many different ways. do people have to walk around the store and pull things off the shelf and put in carts and go through check out? no. things could be done differently. curbside is being done for a lot of things. Could we make sure everyone has everything they need for 3 weeks? 4 weeks? longer? with emergency contingencies? of course we could. You would still have to have people going to work. You would have to have a lot more people going to work. And, you would still have to have supply chain - so farmers, pickers, packers, butchers, processors as well as factory workers, warehouses, etc. You would have to allow the continuation of supply for packaging. You would have to keep the ports open, and keep truck drivers on the roads. With truck drivers on the road, you have to staff truck stops and make sure the gas supply continues. That means you have to keep refineries going. Food doesn't magically appear at grocery stores, and the reality is, we don't have a 4 week supply chain glut of food out there. Grocery items turn fast. Most grocery stores get shipments every day to keep food on the shelves. At the beginning of this, there wasn't a box of pasta, a bag of rice or a can of beans to be found. Not everyone in America ran out and got a 4 week supply of food, but the shelves were empty. Luckily, they didn't just close down the supply chain and hope that everyone had enough to make it through. I don't think the most dangerous point is the customer walking into the grocery store. It is the workplaces where there are a lot of people in a small space for long periods of time. Forcing curbside pick-up won't eradicate Coronavirus, not in 2 weeks, not in 4 weeks. Your plan is too simplistic and lacks any relationship to reality.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 12, 2020 18:49:05 GMT -5
public policy without emotion is meaningless and likely dystopian in fact - without emotion, there is no public policy do you mean "emotion" to be, like, just and fair? Or do you mean "emotion" to be - "people feel this is a good thing (even though it's not fair or just) - so let's do it!" Or, we don't have alot of info on this - but doing X "feels right"? Personally, I'd like public policy to be fair and just and aimed at making the place better for as many people as possible. I don't think "emotion" gets that done... if there's no emotion - who cares about unfairness? nobody.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on May 12, 2020 18:56:27 GMT -5
the entire system is arbitrary and could be changed in many different ways. do people have to walk around the store and pull things off the shelf and put in carts and go through check out? no. things could be done differently. curbside is being done for a lot of things. Could we make sure everyone has everything they need for 3 weeks? 4 weeks? longer? with emergency contingencies? of course we could. You would still have to have people going to work. You would have to have a lot more people going to work. And, you would still have to have supply chain - so farmers, pickers, packers, butchers, processors as well as factory workers, warehouses, etc. You would have to allow the continuation of supply for packaging. You would have to keep the ports open, and keep truck drivers on the roads. With truck drivers on the road, you have to staff truck stops and make sure the gas supply continues. That means you have to keep refineries going. Food doesn't magically appear at grocery stores, and the reality is, we don't have a 4 week supply chain glut of food out there. Grocery items turn fast. Most grocery stores get shipments every day to keep food on the shelves. At the beginning of this, there wasn't a box of pasta, a bag of rice or a can of beans to be found. Not everyone in America ran out and got a 4 week supply of food, but the shelves were empty. Luckily, they didn't just close down the supply chain and hope that everyone had enough to make it through. I don't think the most dangerous point is the customer walking into the grocery store. It is the workplaces where there are a lot of people in a small space for long periods of time. Forcing curbside pick-up won't eradicate Coronavirus, not in 2 weeks, not in 4 weeks. Your plan is too simplistic and lacks any relationship to reality. Well, we could look to South Korea as a model. A “third world” country....
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on May 12, 2020 19:27:30 GMT -5
public policy without emotion is meaningless and likely dystopian in fact - without emotion, there is no public policy do you mean "emotion" to be, like, just and fair? Or do you mean "emotion" to be - "people feel this is a good thing (even though it's not fair or just) - so let's do it!" Or, we don't have alot of info on this - but doing X "feels right"? Personally, I'd like public policy to be fair and just and aimed at making the place better for as many people as possible. I don't think "emotion" gets that done... This is what I saw as her sense of emotion: ... and what if it is one of your loved ones that is collateral damage in this? maybe even one of your children? ... Is this all acceptable when it is someone's else children?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 12, 2020 19:32:21 GMT -5
You would still have to have people going to work. You would have to have a lot more people going to work. And, you would still have to have supply chain - so farmers, pickers, packers, butchers, processors as well as factory workers, warehouses, etc. You would have to allow the continuation of supply for packaging. You would have to keep the ports open, and keep truck drivers on the roads. With truck drivers on the road, you have to staff truck stops and make sure the gas supply continues. That means you have to keep refineries going. Food doesn't magically appear at grocery stores, and the reality is, we don't have a 4 week supply chain glut of food out there. Grocery items turn fast. Most grocery stores get shipments every day to keep food on the shelves. At the beginning of this, there wasn't a box of pasta, a bag of rice or a can of beans to be found. Not everyone in America ran out and got a 4 week supply of food, but the shelves were empty. Luckily, they didn't just close down the supply chain and hope that everyone had enough to make it through. I don't think the most dangerous point is the customer walking into the grocery store. It is the workplaces where there are a lot of people in a small space for long periods of time. Forcing curbside pick-up won't eradicate Coronavirus, not in 2 weeks, not in 4 weeks. Your plan is too simplistic and lacks any relationship to reality. Well, we could look to South Korea as a model. A “third world” country.... Their success was testing, testing, testing. That is what public health officials and people who understand this stuff are suggesting. They did not manage it by shutting down the food supply, which is being suggested by nobody who has any expertise.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on May 12, 2020 20:11:31 GMT -5
Well, we could look to South Korea as a model. A “third world” country.... Their success was testing, testing, testing. That is what public health officials and people who understand this stuff are suggesting. They did not manage it by shutting down the food supply, which is being suggested by nobody who has any expertise. So the “richest, most powerful, most technologically advanced” country in the world was showed up by a 3rd world country.... MAGA!
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oped
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Post by oped on May 12, 2020 20:25:55 GMT -5
South Korea is not Third World.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 12, 2020 21:03:02 GMT -5
South Korea is not Third World. They made all my appliances!
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on May 12, 2020 21:51:39 GMT -5
South Korea is not Third World. I stand corrected on that point
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 13, 2020 12:06:08 GMT -5
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 13, 2020 12:12:29 GMT -5
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resolution
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Post by resolution on May 13, 2020 13:46:50 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 13, 2020 13:50:26 GMT -5
They can do that if they want, but I bet that non-governmental entities will not, and we will soon get disparate numbers. But, why tell the truth, nothing new for this administration
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haapai
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Post by haapai on May 13, 2020 15:22:17 GMT -5
I think that this belongs on this thread. Please forgive the clunky transition. Dr. Rick Bright, the ousted director of a key federal office charged with developing medical countermeasures, will testify before Congress on Thursday that the Trump administration was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic and warn that the the US will face "unprecedented illness and fatalities" without additional preparations. "Our window of opportunity is closing. If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities," Bright is expected to say Thursday, according to his prepared testimony obtained by CNN. "Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history."
Dr. Bright has little to lose by angering Trump, his appointees, or anyone else. That might be the reason why he's saying much darker things than anyone else.
OTOH, he might be choosing florid words very deliberately. It's very much in his own interest to provoke an angry and public reaction from the POTUS.
Either way, I think that it is interesting that he is willing to talk about the upcoming winter.. I've been terrified by the prospect of having seasonal flu and Covid-19 simultaneously for weeks now. It seems to be the third rail of this epidemic. It is approached with utmost caution, if at all.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 13, 2020 15:35:12 GMT -5
I am fearful of the possibility of influenza and coronavirus circulating at the same time this winter. If they both are causing illness, ED may be inundated, and hospitals will need to be lockdown again, and we will be treating everyone as if they are infected. Testing capability, and the supply chain have to be beefed up for us to weather this potential storm. Even if it slows down with warm weather as trump seems to believe, there is no reason to think it will not be back next fall/winter.
Scary stuff
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 13, 2020 16:07:01 GMT -5
I think that this belongs on this thread. Please forgive the clunky transition. Dr. Rick Bright, the ousted director of a key federal office charged with developing medical countermeasures, will testify before Congress on Thursday that the Trump administration was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic and warn that the the US will face "unprecedented illness and fatalities" without additional preparations. "Our window of opportunity is closing. If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities," Bright is expected to say Thursday, according to his prepared testimony obtained by CNN. "Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history."
Dr. Bright has little to lose by angering Trump, his appointees, or anyone else. That might be the reason why he's saying much darker things than anyone else.
OTOH, he might be choosing florid words very deliberately. It's very much in his own interest to provoke an angry and public reaction from the POTUS.
Either way, I think that it is interesting that he is willing to talk about the upcoming winter.. I've been terrified by the prospect of having seasonal flu and Covid-19 simultaneously for weeks now. It seems to be the third rail of this epidemic. It is approached with utmost caution, if at all.
very chilling, thanks for sharing this.
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haapai
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Post by haapai on May 13, 2020 16:36:11 GMT -5
PMD, how early can we get flu shots? I've been lax about getting one for some time and I don't know when they are usually available. If you could tell me when they usually become available, that would be helpful information to have even if demand for the shots goes through the roof or we institute some sort of risk-based prioritization.
I'd also like to thank you for clarifying what I was trying to say about experiencing simultaneous seasonal flu and Covid-19. I really wish that I had said, well, what you said, that I was afraid of a season in which they were both circulating at the same time.
I don't really fear contracting both diseases simultaneously, I just want to do everything that I can to get seasonal flu out of the picture this fall and winter so that we are less confused regarding what we are dealing with. Oh, and maybe, just maybe, I want to get the shot as soon as possible, before supplies run out, or at least know that I did the best that I could.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 13, 2020 16:42:24 GMT -5
yeah, because.....transparency!
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 13, 2020 16:52:14 GMT -5
PMD, how early can we get flu shots? I've been lax about getting one for some time and I don't know when they are usually available. If you could tell me when they usually become available, that would be helpful information to have even if demand for the shots goes through the roof or we institute some sort of risk-based prioritization.
I'd also like to thank you for clarifying what I was trying to say about experiencing simultaneous seasonal flu and Covid-19. I really wish that I had said, well, what you said, that I was afraid of a season in which they were both circulating at the same time.
I don't really fear contracting both diseases simultaneously, I just want to do everything that I can to get seasonal flu out of the picture this fall and winter so that we are less confused regarding what we are dealing with. Oh, and maybe, just maybe, I want to get the shot as soon as possible, before supplies run out, or at least know that I did the best that I could.
No problem, I hope I am more knowledgeable about this than you are . Flu vaccines are usually available sometime in late August. Around here CVS will start advertising about then. It is not that you would have both at the same time, it is that the symptoms overlap significantly in all but the most severe cases. So, differentiating between them is impossible without testing. One limitation on testing right now is availability of swabs. To do a fast test for either disease, you use the same swab. So we could go thru significant numbers fairly quickly. Previously, once flu was well entrenched, if someone had typical symptoms, we wouldn't test them since it was highly likely they had it. If the 2 co-circulate, that is no longer a viable strategy. So testing becomes paramount.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 13, 2020 16:57:01 GMT -5
yeah, because.....transparency!
If you know anything about how diseases are classified, they all have a case definition. If you fit the definition, you count that as the disease. We do it for flu every year. If they reclassify people who die of respiratory failure/pneumonia/respiratory illness but don't have a positive test, as a pneumonia, if there are significant numbers, it will be obvious. For example, in my state, in April, we had 4400 deaths. Last april, we had 1900. We officially had about 2000 deaths from COVID. So we had 500 excess deaths unaccounted for. A significant outbreak is hard to disguise. In addition, since we seem to have no plan to minimize deaths, even a cooked number is going to look bad.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on May 13, 2020 17:09:40 GMT -5
We've topped 75,000 deaths and it's only May 7th. Tragic!! Damn govt for waiting 70 days to take it seriously!! 75k to 80k deaths in just 2 days? 80k to 85k in 4 days..... this is slowing down a bit......
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 13, 2020 17:11:08 GMT -5
75k to 80k deaths in just 2 days? 80k to 85k in 4 days..... this is slowing down a bit...... Weekend again, todays numbers have picked up. Has been happening every weekend
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 13, 2020 17:12:32 GMT -5
There are also over 16000 serious cases still, so 90000 is already baked in
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