billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 21, 2021 18:36:52 GMT -5
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Empire the P.A.
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Post by Empire the P.A. on Feb 21, 2021 18:45:08 GMT -5
We have had about 3k deaths/day. From where I am sitting , the estimates that Tennesseer posted are low. We could hit 500k by the end of February You were spot on.
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Feb 21, 2021 20:00:31 GMT -5
How quaint the title of this thread looks now. Proof of how naive we all really were
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 21, 2021 20:24:02 GMT -5
How quaint the title of this thread looks now. Proof of how naive we all really were I never thought it would end this low. neither did pmd. we were the doomsdayers saying it would end at 350k-1M. we are still saying that.
the math is not that complicated. only the behavior is. and with Trump in charge, 90k was impossible. if it were Clinton, that might have been a good estimate. I said might.
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Feb 21, 2021 21:28:21 GMT -5
How quaint the title of this thread looks now. Proof of how naive we all really were I never thought it would end this low. neither did pmd. we were the doomsdayers saying it would end at 350k-1M. we are still saying that.
the math is not that complicated. only the behavior is. and with Trump in charge, 90k was impossible. if it were Clinton, that might have been a good estimate. I said might.
I did not think it would stay that low either as you may recall. However, occasionally I let myself ignore reality and dream.Still a forecast of half a million deaths is very different from the fact of that many deaths. I don't think 90k was ever realistic not even with HRC in charge. But it did not have to be this bad!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Feb 21, 2021 21:43:42 GMT -5
trump's other Big Lie to the people of the United States trump's Covid-19 quotes from February, 2020:
Feb. 10, 2020 “I think the virus is going to be—it’s going to be fine.”Feb. 10, 2020 “Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Feb. 24, 2020 “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… the Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”Feb. 25, 2020 “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
Feb. 25, 2020 “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”Feb. 26, 2020 “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”Feb. 26, 2020 “We're going very substantially down, not up.”Feb. 26, 2020 “Well, we're testing everybody that we need to test. And we're finding very little problem. Very little problem.”Feb. 26, 2020 "This is a flu. This is like a flu."Feb. 27, 2020 “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”Feb. 28, 2020 “ We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
Link: trmp's Timeline of Covid quotes
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Feb 21, 2021 21:53:36 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Feb 21, 2021 21:57:06 GMT -5
We have had about 3k deaths/day. From where I am sitting , the estimates that Tennesseer posted are low. We could hit 500k by the end of February You were spot on. Wish I wasn’t, there could be 750k by the beginning of 2022, if these variants take hold as feared before we are able to vaccinate enough. We are is a race right now. If we open up too soon and do not remain careful, it is a race we will lose.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Feb 21, 2021 21:58:36 GMT -5
How quaint the title of this thread looks now. Proof of how naive we all really were I never thought it would end this low. neither did pmd. we were the doomsdayers saying it would end at 350k-1M. we are still saying that.
the math is not that complicated. only the behavior is. and with Trump in charge, 90k was impossible. if it were Clinton, that might have been a good estimate. I said might.
Yes, it is the math. People just did not want to believe it
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 21, 2021 22:58:23 GMT -5
I never thought it would end this low. neither did pmd. we were the doomsdayers saying it would end at 350k-1M. we are still saying that.
the math is not that complicated. only the behavior is. and with Trump in charge, 90k was impossible. if it were Clinton, that might have been a good estimate. I said might.
I did not think it would stay that low either as you may recall. However, occasionally I let myself ignore reality and dream.Still a forecast of half a million deaths is very different from the fact of that many deaths. I don't think 90k was ever realistic not even with HRC in charge. But it did not have to be this bad! if we had a national policy in place in March, we would have somewhere between 75k and 100k dead, ASSUMING THAT PEOPLE WENT ALONG WITH IT. I think it is reasonable to assume that they would, if we didn't have that basshole constantly saying that it was just the flu and a Democrat plot.
REMEMBER, 40% of the MISINFORMATION on the pandemic is traced directly to Trump. the balance was amplified by himself and others. without Trump we would have gotten on this much earlier.
then there was the DISASTROUS testing rollout. REMEMBER, China and the WHO offered to help us in JANUARY with testing. Trump said, to paraphrase, "fuck you", we will develop our own tests, and then fucked THAT up. and without testing, this thing got out there and made shitloads of people sick that didn't ever need to be sick. you control it when you have 1000 cases, and you wipe it out. you TRY to control it when you have 1M (like we did) and you are TOAST.
SK and NZ are models of how to handle this shit. SK followed the Chinese model, and NZ followed the SK model. both of them slayed it. if we were "exceptional", we would have, too.
but we had crappy leadership, and even crappier execution. and it killed 400k plus, and it is probably going to kill another 200-300k, because it is a raging bonfire rather than a controlled burn.
I am not letting Trump off the hook. he could have managed it, and saved half a million people. I won't call him genocidal. that would be too purposeful. but I will call him Chamberlain- a dude that played cutesie with a pandemic and lost big time.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Feb 22, 2021 8:23:07 GMT -5
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Feb 22, 2021 10:21:05 GMT -5
and then what is going to occur with the anti-vaxxer faction? so we have 2 of those: the usual anti-vaxxers and the 'new' antivaxxers who are still thinking it is a dem plot to give them a tracer? how many of those still floating around?
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Feb 22, 2021 13:05:03 GMT -5
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Feb 22, 2021 13:14:14 GMT -5
I've been following the worldOmeter for months and any time there's a published number about the pandemic death numbers they are consistently about '1 weeks worth' so 5 to 7 days behind the worldometer number. At this point because of the overall consistency I don't think either one is "fake" or trying to mislead. It looks like a timing issue. I'm guessing we will be at 550,000 dead by the MIDDLE of March - even if deaths slow down/drop... I think we're gonna "bottom out" at about 250 to 500 deaths per day for weeks on end. and I'm guessing we'll hit 600K by the end of April. (I've also noticed my family/friends who watch/read the news bring up stuff that is a week old to me... as in I bumped into the news they are just now hearing - a week or more ago. I'm thinking there's a 5 to 7 day delay for most none Big Headline news.)
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Feb 22, 2021 13:26:29 GMT -5
and then what is going to occur with the anti-vaxxer faction? so we have 2 of those: the usual anti-vaxxers and the 'new' antivaxxers who are still thinking it is a dem plot to give them a tracer? how many of those still floating around? I'm thinking the anti vaxxer's are a small % of people. I'm not counting the "gee, the pandemic isn't in the news anymore and I've gotten thru a year or more without getting sick, I don't think I need a vaccine" people. They aren't against vaccines - they just aren't motivated enough to bother to get one. Kind of like the people who would get a flu shot if they were offered as they walked into a store to do their weekly shopping (and all they had to do was get in a line and roll up their sleeve right then and there) - but since they might have to make an appointment and actually show up - they just don't bother - they have better things to do - and the "flu" is kind of intangible - they probably won't get it anyway. With the 600K death count looming Covid19 is more like "cancer deaths" than flu deaths. Maybe if the vaccine was marketed the same way "this X will keep you from cancer" stuff is, people would be more motivated to spend the time and money to get the vaccine. (my bottle of "daily multi vitamins" hints that taking one a day will prevent all sorts of stuff maybe even cancer... for example. there's lots of products and foods that are marketed with the specter of cancer lurking in the background - if you want to avoid 'cancer' use this product/eat this food. And my family/friends/coworkers are all willing to spend money and time to avoid "cancer"... judging from all the stupid stuff they buy or eat or do.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Feb 22, 2021 14:34:27 GMT -5
and then what is going to occur with the anti-vaxxer faction? so we have 2 of those: the usual anti-vaxxers and the 'new' antivaxxers who are still thinking it is a dem plot to give them a tracer? how many of those still floating around? I'm thinking the anti vaxxer's are a small % of people. I'm not counting the "gee, the pandemic isn't in the news anymore and I've gotten thru a year or more without getting sick, I don't think I need a vaccine" people. They aren't against vaccines - they just aren't motivated enough to bother to get one. Kind of like the people who would get a flu shot if they were offered as they walked into a store to do their weekly shopping (and all they had to do was get in a line and roll up their sleeve right then and there) - but since they might have to make an appointment and actually show up - they just don't bother - they have better things to do - and the "flu" is kind of intangible - they probably won't get it anyway. With the 600K death count looming Covid19 is more like "cancer deaths" than flu deaths. Maybe if the vaccine was marketed the same way "this X will keep you from cancer" stuff is, people would be more motivated to spend the time and money to get the vaccine. (my bottle of "daily multi vitamins" hints that taking one a day will prevent all sorts of stuff maybe even cancer... for example. there's lots of products and foods that are marketed with the specter of cancer lurking in the background - if you want to avoid 'cancer' use this product/eat this food. And my family/friends/coworkers are all willing to spend money and time to avoid "cancer"... judging from all the stupid stuff they buy or eat or do. Except the HPV shot. They don't seem to let their kids get that, because getting a shot to prevent cancer that is transmitted sexually will make them sluts and unclean.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 22, 2021 15:00:43 GMT -5
and then what is going to occur with the anti-vaxxer faction? so we have 2 of those: the usual anti-vaxxers and the 'new' antivaxxers who are still thinking it is a dem plot to give them a tracer? how many of those still floating around? quite a few. but we can Darwin them out, as far as I am concerned.
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Ryan
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Post by Ryan on Feb 22, 2021 15:58:30 GMT -5
and then what is going to occur with the anti-vaxxer faction? so we have 2 of those: the usual anti-vaxxers and the 'new' antivaxxers who are still thinking it is a dem plot to give them a tracer? how many of those still floating around? I'm thinking the anti vaxxer's are a small % of people. I'm not counting the "gee, the pandemic isn't in the news anymore and I've gotten thru a year or more without getting sick, I don't think I need a vaccine" people. They aren't against vaccines - they just aren't motivated enough to bother to get one. Kind of like the people who would get a flu shot if they were offered as they walked into a store to do their weekly shopping (and all they had to do was get in a line and roll up their sleeve right then and there) - but since they might have to make an appointment and actually show up - they just don't bother - they have better things to do - and the "flu" is kind of intangible - they probably won't get it anyway. With the 600K death count looming Covid19 is more like "cancer deaths" than flu deaths. Maybe if the vaccine was marketed the same way "this X will keep you from cancer" stuff is, people would be more motivated to spend the time and money to get the vaccine. (my bottle of "daily multi vitamins" hints that taking one a day will prevent all sorts of stuff maybe even cancer... for example. there's lots of products and foods that are marketed with the specter of cancer lurking in the background - if you want to avoid 'cancer' use this product/eat this food. And my family/friends/coworkers are all willing to spend money and time to avoid "cancer"... judging from all the stupid stuff they buy or eat or do. Like anything, there is a range in people that might not get a vaccine. You have the people that are the stereotypical anti-vaxers and then you have people that just don't bother. You also have a lot of people that 1) don't really pay attention to the news 2) don't know anyone that got really sick from COVID. 3) Are a little skeptical of anything that got approved quickly, whether or not they understand anything about the process. Personally, I think you'd have to be kind of a moron to not understand the severity of it but whatever. There are a lot of people that have not changed their habits much since the virus started and have not gotten sick, whereas my family has been mostly keeping to ourselves. In their eyes, they probably think we're the morons.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 22, 2021 16:09:44 GMT -5
they need an optometrist.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Feb 22, 2021 17:11:34 GMT -5
I'm thinking the anti vaxxer's are a small % of people. I'm not counting the "gee, the pandemic isn't in the news anymore and I've gotten thru a year or more without getting sick, I don't think I need a vaccine" people. They aren't against vaccines - they just aren't motivated enough to bother to get one. Kind of like the people who would get a flu shot if they were offered as they walked into a store to do their weekly shopping (and all they had to do was get in a line and roll up their sleeve right then and there) - but since they might have to make an appointment and actually show up - they just don't bother - they have better things to do - and the "flu" is kind of intangible - they probably won't get it anyway. With the 600K death count looming Covid19 is more like "cancer deaths" than flu deaths. Maybe if the vaccine was marketed the same way "this X will keep you from cancer" stuff is, people would be more motivated to spend the time and money to get the vaccine. (my bottle of "daily multi vitamins" hints that taking one a day will prevent all sorts of stuff maybe even cancer... for example. there's lots of products and foods that are marketed with the specter of cancer lurking in the background - if you want to avoid 'cancer' use this product/eat this food. And my family/friends/coworkers are all willing to spend money and time to avoid "cancer"... judging from all the stupid stuff they buy or eat or do. Except the HPV shot. They don't seem to let their kids get that, because getting a shot to prevent cancer that is transmitted sexually will make them sluts and unclean. I suspect it's like the "Catholic" joke about getting a prescription for the "pill" - it's not for BC! It's for a medical reason! I suspect parents are saying one thing and doing another thing.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Feb 22, 2021 17:20:37 GMT -5
I'm thinking the anti vaxxer's are a small % of people. I'm not counting the "gee, the pandemic isn't in the news anymore and I've gotten thru a year or more without getting sick, I don't think I need a vaccine" people. They aren't against vaccines - they just aren't motivated enough to bother to get one. Kind of like the people who would get a flu shot if they were offered as they walked into a store to do their weekly shopping (and all they had to do was get in a line and roll up their sleeve right then and there) - but since they might have to make an appointment and actually show up - they just don't bother - they have better things to do - and the "flu" is kind of intangible - they probably won't get it anyway. With the 600K death count looming Covid19 is more like "cancer deaths" than flu deaths. Maybe if the vaccine was marketed the same way "this X will keep you from cancer" stuff is, people would be more motivated to spend the time and money to get the vaccine. (my bottle of "daily multi vitamins" hints that taking one a day will prevent all sorts of stuff maybe even cancer... for example. there's lots of products and foods that are marketed with the specter of cancer lurking in the background - if you want to avoid 'cancer' use this product/eat this food. And my family/friends/coworkers are all willing to spend money and time to avoid "cancer"... judging from all the stupid stuff they buy or eat or do. Like anything, there is a range in people that might not get a vaccine. You have the people that are the stereotypical anti-vaxers and then you have people that just don't bother. You also have a lot of people that 1) don't really pay attention to the news 2) don't know anyone that got really sick from COVID. 3) Are a little skeptical of anything that got approved quickly, whether or not they understand anything about the process. Personally, I think you'd have to be kind of a moron to not understand the severity of it but whatever. There are a lot of people that have not changed their habits much since the virus started and have not gotten sick, whereas my family has been mostly keeping to ourselves. In their eyes, they probably think we're the morons. IDK, I got relatives who should know better but don't. One was "humble bragging" that their son had had covid19 and it was nothing at all. It was a phone call. I might have mentioned that I hoped the kid was still 'fertile' - seems I had read the Covid19 messed with male fertility. The relative went silent. Maybe that would have worked better if we were face to face. cause I think that infertility thing is specious. Anyway, I've got relatives that think Covid19 isn't as bad as it's made out to be. They were all "Only 1 person died in our county today - Covid19 isn't a thing. I don't know why everyone's all stressed about it". and then in the next breath - "how come so many people are dying of it where you are?? what's wrong with your state? You have a sucky Democratic government, blah, blah blah". I mentioned their state's death per million was alittle lower than my state's death per million - and they got all "I don't care about that! Nobody is dying in my COUNTY!!" To which I was "well, if we are comparing our perception of the size of a Kardashian Ass - no one in my CITY has died from Covid 19 in a month... ha! What is wrong with your County " That call did not end well. I really don't get it. I think I have a failure to communicate cause I don't really understand what my relative means or is saying.
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Ryan
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Post by Ryan on Feb 22, 2021 18:06:00 GMT -5
Like anything, there is a range in people that might not get a vaccine. You have the people that are the stereotypical anti-vaxers and then you have people that just don't bother. You also have a lot of people that 1) don't really pay attention to the news 2) don't know anyone that got really sick from COVID. 3) Are a little skeptical of anything that got approved quickly, whether or not they understand anything about the process. Personally, I think you'd have to be kind of a moron to not understand the severity of it but whatever. There are a lot of people that have not changed their habits much since the virus started and have not gotten sick, whereas my family has been mostly keeping to ourselves. In their eyes, they probably think we're the morons. IDK, I got relatives who should know better but don't. One was "humble bragging" that their son had had covid19 and it was nothing at all. It was a phone call. I might have mentioned that I hoped the kid was still 'fertile' - seems I had read the Covid19 messed with male fertility. The relative went silent. Maybe that would have worked better if we were face to face. cause I think that infertility thing is specious. Anyway, I've got relatives that think Covid19 isn't as bad as it's made out to be. They were all "Only 1 person died in our county today - Covid19 isn't a thing. I don't know why everyone's all stressed about it". and then in the next breath - "how come so many people are dying of it where you are?? what's wrong with your state? You have a sucky Democratic government, blah, blah blah". I mentioned their state's death per million was alittle lower than my state's death per million - and they got all "I don't care about that! Nobody is dying in my COUNTY!!" To which I was "well, if we are comparing our perception of the size of a Kardashian Ass - no one in my CITY has died from Covid 19 in a month... ha! What is wrong with your County " That call did not end well. I really don't get it. I think I have a failure to communicate cause I don't really understand what my relative means or is saying. I can see how it can happen easily. Take your average middle class 40-year old who is just watching basic news, doesn't do any research into complications that come from having COVID (long term). They see people are dying, mostly old people. They write off the younger deaths as someone who was unhealthy already. The small amount of people that they know do not have any harsh symptoms. They grew up with a media that blows things out of proportion until the next big story happens, they probably figure this is only a slightly bigger deal than what they saw during swine flu days. I have no basis for this, but I think people with COVID will be fine long-term. However, there is enough unknown to make me be pretty careful because I don't really want to take the chance. My cousin lost her sense of smell in Oct and still doesn't have it back. If that were me, that would be completely jarring. I can't imagine if I were someone that had something more serious that lingered. Still though, I don't think Joe Six-Pack really even knows what "Long Covid" is.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Feb 22, 2021 18:11:05 GMT -5
Thanks for your medical opinion. I’m sure you learned that in medical school
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 22, 2021 18:34:22 GMT -5
... I have no basis for this, but I think ... Is it possible to "think" with "no basis"? I considering thinking a process so on that basis I think it isn't possible. Hope (a feeling) doesn't need a basis. Perhaps you are hoping.
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Ryan
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Post by Ryan on Feb 22, 2021 20:28:59 GMT -5
Thanks for your medical opinion. I’m sure you learned that in medical school You're welcome. I will bless you every now and again with my knowledge.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Feb 22, 2021 20:44:08 GMT -5
Thanks for your medical opinion. I’m sure you learned that in medical school You're welcome. I will bless you every now and again with my knowledge. The 500k who died don’t count? 30% of people with mild to moderate covid have symptoms 3-9 months after infected. I have no idea where your opinion came from, but it is 100% wrong. But I already know your opinion about medical opinions. It is amazing how lay people think they have the ability to feel they can offer opinions on complicated medical issues
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Miss Tequila
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Post by Miss Tequila on Feb 22, 2021 21:05:14 GMT -5
IDK, I got relatives who should know better but don't. One was "humble bragging" that their son had had covid19 and it was nothing at all. It was a phone call. I might have mentioned that I hoped the kid was still 'fertile' - seems I had read the Covid19 messed with male fertility. The relative went silent. Maybe that would have worked better if we were face to face. cause I think that infertility thing is specious. Anyway, I've got relatives that think Covid19 isn't as bad as it's made out to be. They were all "Only 1 person died in our county today - Covid19 isn't a thing. I don't know why everyone's all stressed about it". and then in the next breath - "how come so many people are dying of it where you are?? what's wrong with your state? You have a sucky Democratic government, blah, blah blah". I mentioned their state's death per million was alittle lower than my state's death per million - and they got all "I don't care about that! Nobody is dying in my COUNTY!!" To which I was "well, if we are comparing our perception of the size of a Kardashian Ass - no one in my CITY has died from Covid 19 in a month... ha! What is wrong with your County " That call did not end well. I really don't get it. I think I have a failure to communicate cause I don't really understand what my relative means or is saying. I can see how it can happen easily. Take your average middle class 40-year old who is just watching basic news, doesn't do any research into complications that come from having COVID (long term). They see people are dying, mostly old people. They write off the younger deaths as someone who was unhealthy already. The small amount of people that they know do not have any harsh symptoms. They grew up with a media that blows things out of proportion until the next big story happens, they probably figure this is only a slightly bigger deal than what they saw during swine flu days. I have no basis for this, but I think people with COVID will be fine long-term. However, there is enough unknown to make me be pretty careful because I don't really want to take the chance. My cousin lost her sense of smell in Oct and still doesn't have it back. If that were me, that would be completely jarring. I can't imagine if I were someone that had something more serious that lingered. Still though, I don't think Joe Six-Pack really even knows what "Long Covid" is. I know many people that had mild Covid. I’m one of the few that I know that got severe Covid. It seems that people are willing to gamble that they won’t be like me. What scares me is the unknown, even for those that got a mild case of it.
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Ryan
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Post by Ryan on Feb 22, 2021 21:20:34 GMT -5
You're welcome. I will bless you every now and again with my knowledge. The 500k who died don’t count? 30% of people with mild to moderate covid have symptoms 3-9 months after infected. I have no idea where your opinion came from, but it is 100% wrong. But I already know your opinion about medical opinions. It is amazing how lay people think they have the ability to feel they can offer opinions on complicated medical issues Sounds like you’re upset nobody is listening to your advice. Maybe it’s the messenger, nobody likes a pessimist.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 22, 2021 21:31:48 GMT -5
The 500k who died don’t count? 30% of people with mild to moderate covid have symptoms 3-9 months after infected. I have no idea where your opinion came from, but it is 100% wrong. But I already know your opinion about medical opinions. It is amazing how lay people think they have the ability to feel they can offer opinions on complicated medical issues Sounds like you’re upset nobody is listening to your advice. Maybe it’s the messenger, nobody likes a pessimist. He’s a realist, Ryan, and not a fantasist.
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pulmonarymd
Junior Associate
Joined: Feb 12, 2020 17:40:54 GMT -5
Posts: 7,366
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Post by pulmonarymd on Feb 22, 2021 21:32:07 GMT -5
The 500k who died don’t count? 30% of people with mild to moderate covid have symptoms 3-9 months after infected. I have no idea where your opinion came from, but it is 100% wrong. But I already know your opinion about medical opinions. It is amazing how lay people think they have the ability to feel they can offer opinions on complicated medical issues Sounds like you’re upset nobody is listening to your advice. Maybe it’s the messenger, nobody likes a pessimist. Trump downplayed it too, and ignored what he thought was pessimistic scenario. We have 500k dead. How did that work out? The problem is people fo not want to lustff Ed b to realistic advice. Whatever happened to plan for the worst and hope for the best? On this board, when it comes to money, most people criticize rosy scenarios. But with this, it’s different? You are right, I am angry. I am angry that we have done so poorly, bad enough that 509k are dead. Life expectancy fell by a year. Millions hospitalized and who knows how many with chronic problems as a result. People not caring what this has done to medical professionals. Lives ruined, economy in shambles. But I am being too pessimistic. Yeah, that’s it. We are just too stupid to listen to the warnings we were given. And it started with Trump
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