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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 11:43:18 GMT -5
Yet, last week as many as 240,000 Americans were possibly going to die from this thing even if we did 'everything right.' That was straight from Dr. Fauci. "Fauci did not say which model he is using to come up with the estimate ." no model was needed. you can do the math in 10 seconds on a calculator.
My estimate was 150,000 three weeks ago. I did not anticipate the level of effort that is happening today.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 11:45:04 GMT -5
Go ahead and research what Obama did during H1N1 instead of turning yourself into a liar. And I’m sure you must be aware of the vast differences in this pandemic. Right? I know that Obama refused to secure the border and continued to order border agents to turn their backs on all the illegal aliens pouring into the country with illnesses. Anything else he 'made the motions' of doing are negated by that fact. pure crap.
>mic drop<
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 11:46:00 GMT -5
no model was needed. you can do the math in 10 seconds on a calculator.
My estimate was 150,000 three weeks ago. I did not anticipate the level of effort that is happening today. me neither. I am really happy and relieved.
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Apr 10, 2020 12:01:30 GMT -5
No he has a bachelor degree in economics. His father called in favors to get him admitted. Lied about being #1 in his class. Wouldn't release his grades and threatened the school if they gave them out. People in his class don't remember him or said there was nothing notable about him.
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steff
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Post by steff on Apr 10, 2020 12:03:13 GMT -5
Before anyone starts declaring it over & the death count final, keep in mind is hasn't run the heartland yet. There's fewer hospitals, access to ventilators & an older population. Just because there's a curve in NY doesn't mean it's over for the rest of the country.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 10, 2020 12:04:52 GMT -5
... when the truth is that Sweden had it right all along -- ... *drops mic* It appears that mic drop might be a bit premature: Sweden's "curve" -- the rate of infections and deaths caused by coronavirus -- is certainly steeper than that of many other European countries with stricter measures. A study by Imperial College London estimated that 3.1% of the Swedish population was infected (as of March 28) -- compared to 0.41% in Norway and 2.5% in the UK. Sweden challenges Trump -- and scientific mainstream -- by refusing to lock down Time will tell.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 12:05:11 GMT -5
no, it is not over. but my worst predictions are not going to happen, imo.
we will not lose 1M, and 40M will not get the virus.
the number will be at least an order of magnitude smaller.
and thank goodness.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 12:08:23 GMT -5
... when the truth is that Sweden had it right all along -- ... *drops mic* It appears that mic drop might be a bit premature: Sweden's "curve" -- the rate of infections and deaths caused by coronavirus -- is certainly steeper than that of many other European countries with stricter measures. A study by Imperial College London estimated that 3.1% of the Swedish population was infected (as of March 28) -- compared to 0.41% in Norway and 2.5% in the UK. Sweden challenges Trump -- and scientific mainstream -- by refusing to lock down Time will tell. time has told!
Sweden already has 2x the deaths per million of the US.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 10, 2020 12:09:33 GMT -5
... when the truth is that Sweden had it right all along -- ... *drops mic* It appears that mic drop might be a bit premature: Sweden's "curve" -- the rate of infections and deaths caused by coronavirus -- is certainly steeper than that of many other European countries with stricter measures. A study by Imperial College London estimated that 3.1% of the Swedish population was infected (as of March 28) -- compared to 0.41% in Norway and 2.5% in the UK. Sweden challenges Trump -- and scientific mainstream -- by refusing to lock down Time will tell. Great Britain tried the same thing. There numbers don't like to good either.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 10, 2020 12:11:33 GMT -5
no, it is not over. but my worst predictions are not going to happen, imo. we will not lose 1M, and 40M will not get the virus. the number will be at least an order of magnitude smaller. and thank goodness. For phase 1, and that is if something stupid does not occur over Easter or Mother's Day. How bad phase 2 is depends on numerous factors, which I know you know. But the number of deaths will continue to rise, even if things are not so bad with this round
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 12:12:12 GMT -5
It appears that mic drop might be a bit premature: Sweden's "curve" -- the rate of infections and deaths caused by coronavirus -- is certainly steeper than that of many other European countries with stricter measures. A study by Imperial College London estimated that 3.1% of the Swedish population was infected (as of March 28) -- compared to 0.41% in Norway and 2.5% in the UK. Sweden challenges Trump -- and scientific mainstream -- by refusing to lock down Time will tell. Great Britain tried the same thing. There numbers don't like to good either. there are five countries with a major problem right now, and the UK is one of them.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 12:13:46 GMT -5
no, it is not over. but my worst predictions are not going to happen, imo. we will not lose 1M, and 40M will not get the virus. the number will be at least an order of magnitude smaller. and thank goodness. For phase 1, and that is if something stupid does not occur over Easter or Mother's Day. How bad phase 2 is depends on numerous factors, which I know you know. But the number of deaths will continue to rise, even if things are not so bad with this round the second phase of the Spanish Flu was much worse than the first, because it was there at the BEGINNING of the flu season, not the end. the same will be true this year, if we lose our vigilance.
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steff
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Post by steff on Apr 10, 2020 12:15:25 GMT -5
Again, it's a little too early to stand on the bodies & declare it a victory because the number isn't higher.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Apr 10, 2020 13:07:30 GMT -5
Before anyone starts declaring it over & the death count final, keep in mind is hasn't run the heartland yet. There's fewer hospitals, access to ventilators & an older population. Just because there's a curve in NY doesn't mean it's over for the rest of the country. I'm more concerned that Trump, in his excitement to get his hotels and resorts back to raking in money, will insist everything is 'fixed' now and declares social distancing 'over' before we have the ability to test people to determine if they have CV19, or if they had it and are now immune and able to mingle in society without potentially spreading the disease (that test probably won't be ready until August at the earliest) and then people like my SIL, who believes it doesn't matter if some people kick the bucket as long as the economy gets back on track (plus she hates having other people tell her what she has to do, so she's ignoring the social distancing) will trigger a second wave of cases as bad as the first, just in different places this time.
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andi9899
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Post by andi9899 on Apr 10, 2020 13:08:46 GMT -5
if you don't know the difference, then keep yourself ignorant and pro-trump. No one really cares about your senseless crowing. Well - the comedy part is nice. you have no information, no facts, nothing to offer in conversion or reasoned argument about any of these topics. you are part of a cult-like devotion that defies logic. fine - feel free. Do you need to post this drivel to receive the reinforcement you need to keep engaged in your delusional belief system? If you aren't fighting against the "democrats" and their imagined conspiracies, what have you got? I am not the topic of this thread -- Dr. Fauci is. If you can't defend him and have to create a diversion by attacking me, just admit it and move on. Does this not reek of Shooby to anyone?
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 10, 2020 13:09:00 GMT -5
Just because a bunch of stupid people join together to do something stupid doesn't make it smart. This is so true ! Can you get out of the box for a moment to really see it from all sides ? Which box do you think I'm in? You should focus on your own box. If you can't see it, that's the problem.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 10, 2020 13:12:16 GMT -5
Republicans standing on the bodies of 60,000 dead & celebrating is a new low even for them. Democrats using a novel virus as an election platform, isn't a new low for them. so pointing out trump's failures is low?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Apr 10, 2020 13:17:03 GMT -5
Democrats should be making shit up and throwing people in jail for things that have been investigated a dozen times and have zero proof. That is Playbook shit now.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 10, 2020 13:17:37 GMT -5
no, it is not over. but my worst predictions are not going to happen, imo. we will not lose 1M, and 40M will not get the virus.the number will be at least an order of magnitude smaller. and thank goodness. what are you basing this on? Do you think that the virus can become extinct like smallpox without a vaccine? When it is all over the world? there is speculation that pets can spread the disease. It came from other animals in the first place. Now animals all over the world have been exposed - some species may get and keep it circulating. Even animals who don't get sick from it may carry it around.... www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/coronavirus-cats-bva-advice-gbr-scli-intl-wellness/index.html
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 13:23:35 GMT -5
no, it is not over. but my worst predictions are not going to happen, imo. we will not lose 1M, and 40M will not get the virus.the number will be at least an order of magnitude smaller. and thank goodness. what are you basing this on? Do you think that the virus and become extinct like smallpox without a vaccine? When it is all over the world? there is speculation that pets can spread the disease. It came for other animals in the first place. Now animals all over the world have been exposed - some species may get and keep it circulating. Even animals who don't get sick from it may carry it around.... www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/coronavirus-cats-bva-advice-gbr-scli-intl-wellness/index.htmlI am just basing it on a "preponderance of evidence". it is not certain that we will have this outcome, but it is all but certain. the distancing and shelter in place operations are working. so long as they stay in place, there is no way we will hit those numbers.
if we remove those provisions before we see a vaccine, all bets are off.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 10, 2020 13:27:57 GMT -5
Yet, last week as many as 240,000 Americans were possibly going to die from this thing even if we did 'everything right.' That was straight from Dr. Fauci. To be clear, the 240,000 estimate came from the White House. They did not release the basis for that estimate, and refused to say how they arrived at it. Experts whose work it is to know, including the ones whose work was cited, disavowed or expressed doubt about the number. Even some of Trump's top advisers expressed doubts. Dr. Fauci and CDC Director Redfield both said the number was not reliable. My immediate thought at the time was that the 240,000 number was pulled out of Trump's ass. He had not long before been saying that if we held the number to 100,000 it would be proof that he had done a wonderful job of controlling the virus. It is simple marketing to make himself look good. Set an expectation, and then beat it. No validity to and no basis in medical science for the number, but chosen to make himself look better in the end. Experts and Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 10, 2020 13:30:46 GMT -5
what are you basing this on? Do you think that the virus and become extinct like smallpox without a vaccine? When it is all over the world? there is speculation that pets can spread the disease. It came for other animals in the first place. Now animals all over the world have been exposed - some species may get and keep it circulating. Even animals who don't get sick from it may carry it around.... www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/coronavirus-cats-bva-advice-gbr-scli-intl-wellness/index.htmlI am just basing it on a "preponderance of evidence". it is not certain that we will have this outcome, but it is all but certain. the distancing and shelter in place operations are working. so long as they stay in place, there is no way we will hit those numbers.
if we remove those provisions before we see a vaccine, all bets are off.
So, I believe restrictions will have to be loosened before we have a vaccine. What that will look like is unclear to me. I don't believe that people will be able to continue this indefinitely, especially knowing a vaccine is at least 1 year away. So infections will go back up. Hopefully there will only be a number that we would see with a mild influenza year until a vaccine is available. But that is only if people will comply with whatever limits are put in place.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Apr 10, 2020 13:33:09 GMT -5
Before anyone starts declaring it over & the death count final, keep in mind is hasn't run the heartland yet. There's fewer hospitals, access to ventilators & an older population. Just because there's a curve in NY doesn't mean it's over for the rest of the country. Exactly. And if trump takes steps to undo the social distancing and measures that are working before the health experts advise it, we could see another wave.
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Apr 10, 2020 13:59:05 GMT -5
I am just basing it on a "preponderance of evidence". it is not certain that we will have this outcome, but it is all but certain. the distancing and shelter in place operations are working. so long as they stay in place, there is no way we will hit those numbers.
if we remove those provisions before we see a vaccine, all bets are off.
So, I believe restrictions will have to be loosened before we have a vaccine. What that will look like is unclear to me. I don't believe that people will be able to continue this indefinitely, especially knowing a vaccine is at least 1 year away. So infections will go back up. Hopefully there will only be a number that we would see with a mild influenza year until a vaccine is available. But that is only if people will comply with whatever limits are put in place. Which brings up the unspoken (or largely so) truth about this "flattening the curve" strategy. People will continue to die. It will continue to be terrible for many souls. But if we effectively flatten the curve it will be "manageable" from the perspective of our medical system not buckling under the strain of handling it. Less people will die, in part because more people will be able to be treated under a functioning medical system, and there will be fewer ancillary deaths due to unrelated medical emergencies that could not be effectively handled if the system was overwhelmed. However it will still be a crisis situation for many.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 10, 2020 14:44:15 GMT -5
So, I believe restrictions will have to be loosened before we have a vaccine. What that will look like is unclear to me. I don't believe that people will be able to continue this indefinitely, especially knowing a vaccine is at least 1 year away. So infections will go back up. Hopefully there will only be a number that we would see with a mild influenza year until a vaccine is available. But that is only if people will comply with whatever limits are put in place. Which brings up the unspoken (or largely so) truth about this "flattening the curve" strategy. People will continue to die. It will continue to be terrible for many souls. But if we effectively flatten the curve it will be "manageable" from the perspective of our medical system not buckling under the strain of handling it. Less people will die, in part because more people will be able to be treated under a functioning medical system, and there will be fewer ancillary deaths due to unrelated medical emergencies that could not be effectively handled if the system was overwhelmed. However it will still be a crisis situation for many. 100% correct. Buying time also allows us some opportunity to come up with a treatment, and better diagnostic tests. But yes, the main goal is to avoid everyone needing care at once. If the experience of Italy, Spain, and NYC doesn't get your attention, there is no help for you. By flattening the curve, we can also hopefully replenish the supply chain.
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sesfw
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Post by sesfw on Apr 10, 2020 15:45:42 GMT -5
a nice zing and I'm on my way!
Bye
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2020 15:50:42 GMT -5
So, I believe restrictions will have to be loosened before we have a vaccine. What that will look like is unclear to me. I don't believe that people will be able to continue this indefinitely, especially knowing a vaccine is at least 1 year away. So infections will go back up. Hopefully there will only be a number that we would see with a mild influenza year until a vaccine is available. But that is only if people will comply with whatever limits are put in place. Which brings up the unspoken (or largely so) truth about this "flattening the curve" strategy. People will continue to die. It will continue to be terrible for many souls. But if we effectively flatten the curve it will be "manageable" from the perspective of our medical system not buckling under the strain of handling it. Less people will die, in part because more people will be able to be treated under a functioning medical system, and there will be fewer ancillary deaths due to unrelated medical emergencies that could not be effectively handled if the system was overwhelmed. However it will still be a crisis situation for many. I can pretty much guarantee we will be talking about this a year from now.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Apr 10, 2020 16:22:45 GMT -5
Yet, last week as many as 240,000 Americans were possibly going to die from this thing even if we did 'everything right.' That was straight from Dr. Fauci. To be clear, the 240,000 estimate came from the White House. They did not release the basis for that estimate, and refused to say how they arrived at it. Experts whose work it is to know, including the ones whose work was cited, disavowed or expressed doubt about the number. Even some of Trump's top advisers expressed doubts. Dr. Fauci and CDC Director Redfield both said the number was not reliable. My immediate thought at the time was that the 240,000 number was pulled out of Trump's ass. He had not long before been saying that if we held the number to 100,000 it would be proof that he had done a wonderful job of controlling the virus. It is simple marketing to make himself look good. Set an expectation, and then beat it. No validity to and no basis in medical science for the number, but chosen to make himself look better in the end. Experts and Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimateChances are the poster will state that if your article didn't come from trump's new favorite news channel, One America News Network (OANN), it's fake news.
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Apr 10, 2020 17:18:11 GMT -5
A few posts have been moved. Let's not attack or demean other posters, please!
Thank You,
deminmaine- Moderator
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Apr 10, 2020 18:32:03 GMT -5
what are you basing this on? Do you think that the virus and become extinct like smallpox without a vaccine? When it is all over the world? there is speculation that pets can spread the disease. It came for other animals in the first place. Now animals all over the world have been exposed - some species may get and keep it circulating. Even animals who don't get sick from it may carry it around.... www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/coronavirus-cats-bva-advice-gbr-scli-intl-wellness/index.htmlI am just basing it on a "preponderance of evidence". it is not certain that we will have this outcome, but it is all but certain. the distancing and shelter in place operations are working. so long as they stay in place, there is no way we will hit those numbers.
if we remove those provisions before we see a vaccine, all bets are off.
yes - then we agree. I haven't heard much on the vaccine angle lately. Not sure where they are on that or actually developing something feasible soon.
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